why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 33 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

So I accepted a Prop Trading job in South Beach Miami 44 replies

Why you shouldn't show how much you have made in FX 35 replies

Incorporating Slippage Assumption in backtesting 4 replies

Market Predictability - Technical Signals 25 replies

Contesting the Accepted View of Bernanke 0 replies

Attachments: why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?
Exit Attachments

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #641
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:03am Dec 30, 2013 12:03am
Quoting Magix
{quote} All due respect to RJ and the matrix traders... I'm a little more for stochs than am to a multi signal...this is really a lot closer to my trading... {image}
I see, much faster trigger.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #642
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:08am Dec 30, 2013 12:08am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I see, much faster trigger.
A longer look.

See where the sellers and buyers are...

If we break above, target zone, if we break below, target zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: longer.png Size: 28 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #643
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:19am Dec 30, 2013 12:19am
Quoting Magix
{quote} A longer look. See where the sellers and buyers are... If we break above, target zone, if we break below, target zone. {image}
I definitely see it. But, in keeping with the topic, can we see this on the hard right edge of the chart? Your stoch breaks below 80 which confirms trend resumption after the pullback. So we get in with the current trend, but the trend can end on the next bar, of course. I think what redlion is asking, and Proximus has touched on, how can you truly have confidence in this setup if you don't really know how often it works. That goes for any of us. We might have had a really good month and hit a trend on what is still a random chart to a retail trader. Again I would argue that the market is random at the retail level. The coin we flip might be weighted, but we are still flipping a coin.

How do we know that we are not using a cognitive bias to give an excuse to get in? We all have our pet patterns, but aren't we truly just guessing in the end?

Btw, thanks for sharing your thought processes, they are logical, and will give any trader the best possible chance for success. Now if we can only quantify those chances........

I willfully admit, that even as I make money, I am guessing.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #644
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:34am Dec 30, 2013 12:34am
Quoting Magix
{quote} A longer look. See where the sellers and buyers are... If we break above, target zone, if we break below, target zone. {image}
Here is a case in point.

Why did you choose a 12,3,5 stochastic? Is there a mathematical reason? How do you know a 14,1,3 or a 7,2,2 stoch won't work better?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #645
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:35am Dec 30, 2013 12:35am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I definitely see it. But, in keeping with the topic, can we see this on the hard right edge of the chart? Your stoch breaks below 80 which confirms trend resumption after the pullback. We all have our pet patterns, but aren't we truly just guessing in the end? Btw, thanks for sharing your thought processes, they are logical, and will give any trader the best possible chance for success. Now if we can only quantify those chances........ I willfully admit, that even as I make money, I am guessing.
Setting target zones for trades IMO is market predictability.

Seeing the resistance zones tested and rejected is too a sign of predictability.

From there it is an "If", "When".

At the bottom, it isn't our place to try and catch a falling knife, it is our place to profit from a Market Pre-Defined range and wait for further instructions.

I know that my 2 target zones will get hit and if you check out some of Vegaz charts, you will see these areas as well. I think in sessions, where Auction Market sees it as a whole. Where I believe that market gaps get filled, I identify these as per the session. If price opens above previous London close, we will see a retrace. If market opens below the previous London close, we will see this area as the retrace. These are predictability zones...I used to have each chart to their relevant session and mark off these zones, only I found that I can trigger in direction of the immediate and will see these by what market shows and can do this by way of my M1 or M5 charts with the hourly superimposed.

Weighted coin, well...I guess that is one way to see it, but I would still call this semantics.

I know where price is going. I just don't know when it will get there. When opportunity presents, it is my decision to listen to what I am being told, or reject it and wait for clarity. Sidelines is still a position.

The break out and demand range were shown in progress. I could see the rejection after the break out, I knew where support was.

Seems to me that all I needed to do was wait for opportunity, not work on assumption and there was a tidy little profit that was screaming to be taken...

If this is your first opportunity to view through the same optics, I could agree that it might look to be a parlour trick. Watch it for a while, you will see that these are reptitious patterns and knowing where to place stops on fakes and TPs on S/D zones can afford you a predictability frame of reference.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trade.png Size: 24 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #646
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:41am Dec 30, 2013 12:41am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Setting target zones for trades IMO is market predictability. Seeing the resistance zones tested and rejected is too a sign of predictability. From there it is an "If", "When". At the bottom, it isn't our place to try and catch a falling knife, it is our place to profit from a Market Pre-Defined range and wait for further instructions. I know that my 2 target zones will get hit and if you check out some of Vegaz charts, you will see these areas as well. I think in sessions, where Auction Market sees it as a whole. Where I believe that market...
I know your trading is not a parlor trick, as I do the same thing in a loose way using pivots. You are using s/r to take educated guesses about the market. Your statement about knowing where, but not when price is going is a key statement, and I think the crux of the thread. This is most probably the randomness we are getting at.

A question : Do you think is is even possible to solve the when aspect to trading? It is the when aspect that drives Gann traders, and cycle traders and all of those interesting people. Can this aspect of randomness be solved?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #647
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:44am Dec 30, 2013 12:44am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Here is a case in point. Why did you choose a 12,3,5 stochastic? Is there a mathematical reason? How do you know a 14,1,3 or a 7,2,2 stoch won't work better?
Excellent question.

Real reason...Market testing taking the success ratios based on these settings vs others in an automated setting.

12,3 gives a fair true signal for OBOS zones and because of the sensitivity of the main/trigger cross, I needed to reduce the sensitivity to eliminate false triggers. The only way to do this, was extend the slowing period to 5.

This is as a stand alone, and an overall. Market tested by way of automation.

My current triggering does not wait for the same cross over, but rather a single candle in reverse of the Main being above or below the OBOS zones and triggering to trend. Profit taking is really dependent on supply and demand zones created by historical and if we are above all, just assume the continuation of the trend.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #648
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:51am Dec 30, 2013 12:51am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Excellent question. Real reason...Market testing taking the success ratios based on these settings vs others in an automated setting. 12,3 gives a fair true signal for OBOS zones and because of the sensitivity of the main/trigger cross, I needed to reduce the sensitivity to eliminate false triggers. The only way to do this, was extend the slowing period to 5. This is as a stand alone, and an overall. Market tested by way of automation. My current triggering does not wait for the same cross over, but rather a single candle in reverse of the...
Thanks for the answer. I have seen your bots, regrettably, we cannot use them in the States.

This thread is shaping up well, glad you took the time participate. Learned a couple of things here already.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #649
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:52am Dec 30, 2013 12:52am
Quoting jmn5611
Can this aspect of randomness be solved?
To a certain extent, we can tell when market will make a move, or more so ready to make its move, but to solve the time as randomness...absolutely not.

Have a look at the daily with the weekly superimposed.

How many days did we carry before the retrace to breakzone which consequently closed the door on the market retail gap that was left open.

We took a long walk away, only to retrace in a very short time. Not really hard to understand the general retailers bearish sentiment.

Point is...when market decided it was time, or when money wanted to fill this area...it did it according to it's time, nothing I could forecast.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly.png Size: 27 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #650
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:57am Dec 30, 2013 12:57am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Thanks for the answer. I have seen your bots, regrettably, we cannot use them in the States. This thread is shaping up well, glad you took the time participate. Learned a couple of things here already.

Actually, you can.

If these are not something you feel comfortable risking cash on...and given the regulations that you are governed by, I would say safety dictates you don't

BUT!!

There is no cost to demo them and the expedited learning curve on testing trade ideas is invaluable.

I am not fully automated, not sure if I ever will be. But through the use of these tools, I have a much greater respect for the tools that have been created and definitely understand a lot more about what they are saying.

If an EA is successful, there is nothing saying that this same system cannot be traded manually and with a lot more control.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #651
  • Dec 30, 2013 1:11am Dec 30, 2013 1:11am
Quoting Magix
If an EA is successful, there is nothing saying that this same system cannot be traded manually and with a lot more control.
Except if its a high frequency system,high speed, or a pattern trader system where the parameters are so thin than you cant distinguish a losing pattern from a winner with your bare eye.Then it must be 100% automated.

And i`m pro EA, since an algorithm can do the job 999999x more effectively, the question is, is it well programmed ?
If it was programmed badly, of course you have to worry about it making a mistake, if not then just lean back and watch your bank account grow
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #652
  • Dec 30, 2013 1:18am Dec 30, 2013 1:18am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Except if its a high frequency system,high speed, or a pattern trader system where the parameters are so thin than you cant distinguish a losing pattern from a winner with your bare eye.Then it must be 100% automated. And i`m pro EA, since an algorithm can do the job 999999x more effectively, the question is, is it well programmed ? If it was programmed badly, of course you have to worry about it making a mistake, if not then just lean back and watch your bank account grow
Do you have one of these?

No?

Didn't think so...

So, effectively, you are talking about Unicorns...sure people say they exist, but until I can see one, I have my doubts.

I actually have code that somebody can test and learn from...

If you want to compare fruit, bring an apple to an apple party, not the idea of one.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #653
  • Dec 30, 2013 1:22am Dec 30, 2013 1:22am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I found this nice picture illustrating very well how the market looks like (note the pic illustrates only the active traders not the entire market): {image} As you can see, its very complex, and most of it is not made of "traders".Most market participants dont trade the market, these make up the bulk : government money, interbank transactions and international companies exchanging money for commerce.Only a very small fragment of the market is made of real speculators/traders who trade the market to make a living from.Most market participants...
I think this is way beyond my scope of things …….. I’ll just have to stick to what’s “observable” within market structure………all I know is these participants have a need to conduct business, in a system governed by laws, rules , regulations,& policies which is ever changing. It’s not a static system; the best I could hope for is to have knowledge in which they’re required to conduct business. Their “action” or “inaction” is “feedback” which is again is observable within market structure. I’m still not sure I quite understand what this thread is about. But I’m pretty sure I am in no way, shape, or form, qualified to contribute much on the subject.
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #654
  • Dec 30, 2013 1:41am Dec 30, 2013 1:41am
Quoting Magix
{quote} I know that my 2 target zones will get hit and if you check out some of Vegaz charts, you will see these areas as well. I think in sessions, where Auction Market sees it as a whole. Where I believe that market...

AMT thinks in whatever TF you chose to observe. I use sessions to see how price is distributed within the daily TF distribution, as I also use daily profile to see how price is distributed within LTF distributions. excuse the outdated charts..............
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: profile & sessions splits.jpg Size: 174 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: xx.jpg Size: 119 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #655
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:12am Dec 30, 2013 2:12am
Quoting mzvega
{quote} AMT thinks in whatever TF you chose to observe. I use sessions to see how price is distributed within the daily TF distribution, as I also use daily profile to see how price is distributed within LTF distributions. excuse the outdated charts.............. {image} {image}
What can I say...

I am blown AWAY!

I love the session view, shows who is driving the boat and who never had opportunity to trade the entirety.

Excellent.

From standpoint of the thread, do you use sessions, daily profile or both to find retrace zones and support/resistance ranges?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #656
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:00am Dec 30, 2013 3:00am
Quoting Magix
{quote} What can I say... I am blown AWAY! I love the session view, shows who is driving the boat and who never had opportunity to trade the entirety. Excellent. From standpoint of the thread, do you use sessions, daily profile or both to find retrace zones and support/resistance ranges?
I always view the LTF. to see where the daily falls within that distr. then I drill down to see how the sessions are distr., etc. its very fractal in a sense, yet not fractal. Its a very efficient way to view how the sum of parts make up the whole. But I use "analysis" to tell me the condition of the market, and trade how price responds to change.................. but I view it the same way just against various TF's
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xxx.JPG Size: 167 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: expand.JPG Size: 124 KB
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #657
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:30am Dec 30, 2013 3:30am
Quoting mzvega
{quote} I always view the LTF. to see where the daily falls within that distr. then I drill down to see how the sessions are distr., etc. its very fractal in a sense, yet not fractal. Its a very efficient way to view how the sum of parts make up the whole. But I use "analysis" to tell me the condition of the market, and trade how price responds to change.................. but I view it the same way just against various TF's {image} {image}
Quite similar by my way of looking.

We seem to have the same demand zones, primary.

Supply you don't have marked, am assuming you are currently bearish?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xxx1.png Size: 397 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: xxx2.png Size: 31 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #658
  • Edited 4:21am Dec 30, 2013 3:59am | Edited 4:21am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Quite similar by my way of looking. We seem to have the same demand zones, primary. Supply you don't have marked, am assuming you are currently bearish? {image} {image}
There's a big fundamental difference in what I do. I trade the "data" from the graphic, not the actual "picture" itself.
before the session begins i already know where, I plan to get long or short, and where I am right and where Im wrong. where scale in, and scale out. I trade in anticipation of what price may do. I use the structure of the minor auction to fine tune my entries

heres an example of how I interpret my bias today
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...80#post7179180

forgot to add.............. yes, I am bearish
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #659
  • Dec 30, 2013 5:01am Dec 30, 2013 5:01am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Turv, Based on the bulk of your posts in this thread... I wouldn't paypal you $20 to continue this conversation. You're still spinning your wheels. Though I may not agree with Nubbies delivery, I do agree with his message. Until/unless you can show something, your time is better spent reading than is writing. If the surety of your triggers is so grand, should be fuck all to coding it. Problem is, even you don't trust them.

Why, because I tried every method I could think of until 1 sticks, its been a long haul, but 1 so far atleast i think has finally stuck. Where as Nubs just blew his account, quit, then got angry and spends his time ranting at everyone that its not possible basically because he failed.

working on email alert for entries already.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #660
  • Dec 30, 2013 5:08am Dec 30, 2013 5:08am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} If we dont trade every candle on M1, then technically the M1 gives a clearer view than any other timeframe. So a period 10 SMA is the same on M1 as a period 2 sma on M5, but this may not be true for all indicators.Timeframe based stick merging merges all doji-like candles too too crudely. While this is great for pattern traders on high timeframe, for those guys who want to predict the market with neural networks or other self learning alhorithms, must use the original and raw data. Tick data is better, but if not then M1 is good too. Also...

Your getting it, give up on candles and you shall make a good trader yet

more detail is better.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
1 trader viewing now