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  • #621
  • Dec 29, 2013 6:10pm Dec 29, 2013 6:10pm
Quoting dannyrose
{quote} I would like to stick up for cost averaging. If it is used as part of a sensible approach then it can work fine. Here's an example... If you are trading in the direction of an uptrend and price is at a reasonable support level then you take a buy entry, sound so far... If you have not used too much leverage on your first trade then it surely would be completely acceptable to add another entry if the price dropped down to the next support level? As long as it was within the parameters of your trading system then why not? I think the problem...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #622
  • Dec 29, 2013 6:12pm Dec 29, 2013 6:12pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote} Market structure is everything imo. Daily analysis of market structure is important, LTF Distribution (longer TF distr.) is key. The cumulative analysis of the intraday TF, gives you the "trajectory" of price within the LTF distribution. Anyway, this is way"off topic", so in order not to disrupt this thread any further, Ill retreat to the AMT thread. Im always up for open dialogue of the AM Process. If I can be of any help, you know where you can find me........

Thanks, will be in touch. Btw, I don't think market structure is off topic here, but I'll start looking at the AM threads this week and hope to see you there.
  • #623
  • Dec 29, 2013 6:14pm Dec 29, 2013 6:14pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote} Market structure is everything imo. Daily analysis of market structure is important, LTF Distribution (longer TF distr.) is key. The cumulative analysis of the intraday TF, gives you the "trajectory" of price within the LTF distribution. Anyway, this is way"off topic", so in order not to disrupt this thread any further, Ill retreat to the AMT thread. Im always up for open dialogue of the AM Process. If I can be of any help, you know where you can find me........
I have to disagree with you here Vega...

You are not way "off topic", you are not disrupting the thread, and I think it'd be of great value to apply your frame of reference outside of just the AMT thread and apply it to the topic at hand.

Of course, in saying that, I believe that you have excellent points for market predictability from trajectory to POC.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #624
  • Dec 29, 2013 6:20pm Dec 29, 2013 6:20pm
Quoting dannyrose
{quote} I would like to stick up for cost averaging. If it is used as part of a sensible approach then it can work fine. Here's an example... If you are trading in the direction of an uptrend and price is at a reasonable support level then you take a buy entry, sound so far... If you have not used too much leverage on your first trade then it surely would be completely acceptable to add another entry if the price dropped down to the next support level? As long as it was within the parameters of your trading system then why not? I think the problem...

Yes fine, as long as you are pretty sure the trend is up, we are assuming you can't be sure where it'll turn back up as your buying a pull back.

Buying more as it goes against you is fine, but when you come to exit if you've got 5 positions all losing then it'll hurt compared to the times you get it right and only have 1 position which worked nicely.

You need to make the decision the trend has changed against you, then to look for a place to exit on a pull back of the new trend preferably to reduce the loss.

Most importantly, when you make a profit, you need to make sure it's on average going to be enough to cancel out the losers, if your risking say 1000pips in total over X positions then you want to be making atleast 500pips if not >1000pips per trade ( all positions added together )


How ever you try to beat this game, it's never ever ever ever easy, all methods have downsides.


p.s. I do above, but with a 30pip SL kinda area via M1, why my win rate is so high, but losses HURT!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #625
  • Dec 29, 2013 6:44pm Dec 29, 2013 6:44pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Yes fine, as long as you are pretty sure the trend is up, we are assuming you can't be sure where it'll turn back up as your buying a pull back.
That's still the big part of the conversation.

Identification of trend and then identification of trigger, thus the idea of an MTF EA.

Appreciating that market is fractal, your profit range is dependent on tripping with the trend. It is easier to find 5 pips on an M5 chart than is to find them same 5 on the M1. Working with the idea that if the Hourly trend is up, and the M1 trend is oversold, it gives not only a better chance of success for the trade, but also gives a better possible out if you are wrong.

Think back Turv...

If price has spend the day above the 200EMA and you buy on this line, if price drops below, there is a great likelihood that you will be able to get out with a minor loss on the retrace and trigger on trend than is if you are setting an arbitrary trigger without this same definition.

I'm with you on the M1s. Love em, tripping these can allow the best primary trigger and the better ranges...but if you have no appreciation for the overall trend, you are basically tossing the coin on triggers.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #626
  • Dec 29, 2013 6:55pm Dec 29, 2013 6:55pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} That's still the big part of the conversation. Identification of trend and then identification of trigger, thus the idea of an MTF EA. Appreciating that market is fractal, your profit range is dependent on tripping with the trend. It is easier to find 5 pips on an M5 chart than is to find them same 5 on the M1. Working with the idea that if the Hourly trend is up, and the M1 trend is oversold, it gives not only a better chance of success for the trade, but also gives a better possible out if you are wrong. Think back Turv... If price has...

You realise, I've solved all of the above right on just M1

200ema had a issue, what to do with a break, exit or see if it's a fake signal, these days I have quite a wide range with good probability the market will stay within it.

I can tell you the trend, very effectively via M1, 80% profit rate using it so far and very little lag.

Oversold, eeccckkss, such a nasty way of viewing the markets, ordersold has too high odds wise of continuing against you, your risking catching falling knives every time, I have 2 ranges based on an envelope, a break out side of this range means it's not a pull back it's a trend chance all most definately. Gives you the SL aswell ofcourse, Oversold you run the risk of letting it run cause it's over sold right and it will turn, eventually.

You should deposit $20,000 USD into my paypal account and come back and have a few lessons from the master my old pal ( 20K I need to quit the company LOL )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #627
  • Dec 29, 2013 7:30pm Dec 29, 2013 7:30pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} You realise, I've solved all of the above right on just M1 200ema had a issue, what to do with a break, exit or see if it's a fake signal, these days I have quite a wide range with good probability the market will stay within it. I can tell you the trend, very effectively via M1, 80% profit rate using it so far and very little lag. Oversold, eeccckkss, such a nasty way of viewing the markets, ordersold has too high odds wise of continuing against you, your risking catching falling knives every time, I have 2 ranges based on an envelope,...
Turv,

Based on the bulk of your posts in this thread...

I wouldn't paypal you $20 to continue this conversation.

You're still spinning your wheels. Though I may not agree with Nubbies delivery, I do agree with his message.

Until/unless you can show something, your time is better spent reading than is writing. If the surety of your triggers is so grand, should be fuck all to coding it. Problem is, even you don't trust them.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #628
  • Dec 29, 2013 8:18pm Dec 29, 2013 8:18pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} You becoming a M1 guy ??
If we dont trade every candle on M1, then technically the M1 gives a clearer view than any other timeframe.

So a period 10 SMA is the same on M1 as a period 2 sma on M5, but this may not be true for all indicators.Timeframe based stick merging merges all doji-like candles too too crudely.

While this is great for pattern traders on high timeframe, for those guys who want to predict the market with neural networks or other self learning alhorithms, must use the original and raw data.

Tick data is better, but if not then M1 is good too.

Also i dont see the difference, just zoom out on M1 and the market looks the same as on H4 or D1...
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #629
  • Dec 29, 2013 9:07pm Dec 29, 2013 9:07pm
Here is a chart of some M1 M15 setups. The question is, Is this predictability, or randomness? Do we know with any more than a coin flip is these triggered trades would work? It sure does look nice in hindsight!

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If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #630
  • Dec 29, 2013 9:22pm Dec 29, 2013 9:22pm
Quoting jmn5611
Here is a chart of some M1 M15 setups. The question is, Is this predictability, or randomness? Do we know with any more than a coin flip is these triggered trades would work? It sure does look nice in hindsight! {image}
Check your H1 Candles, J.

Where is support, where is resistance...all inside of 1 hourly candle. Watch for a breakout, retrace and trigger.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #631
  • Dec 29, 2013 9:27pm Dec 29, 2013 9:27pm
Quoting jmn5611
Here is a chart of some M1 M15 setups. The question is, Is this predictability, or randomness? Do we know with any more than a coin flip is these triggered trades would work? It sure does look nice in hindsight! {image}
I think that particular chart is random.I mean you see a downtrend on M1, which is represented by 3 red sticks on M15, how do you know when they will reverse?

Or why should they? Is it probable that after 3 red candle a blue will/must follow? It that a pattern ?

You have to question yourself.

I personally dont see a pattern in that particular setup, except my U shaped pattern in the middle, but i dont know what triggers that so its irrelevant.

Until you know that there is a pattern there, its random and hidden and unpredictable.

If it is a pattern then let me know
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #632
  • Dec 29, 2013 10:04pm Dec 29, 2013 10:04pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I think that particular chart is random.I mean you see a downtrend on M1, which is represented by 3 red sticks on M15, how do you know when they will reverse? Or why should they? Is it probable that after 3 red candle a blue will/must follow? It that a pattern ? You have to question yourself. I personally dont see a pattern in that particular setup, except my U shaped pattern in the middle, but i dont know what triggers that so its irrelevant. Until you know that there is a pattern there, its random and hidden and unpredictable. If it is...
No pattern in and of itself. I just threw an M1 chart up with M15 candles as the backdrop. Magix is suggesting that I use H1 for the large timeframe, wait for the pullback within H1 and the enter on the trigger( Genesis matrix). Just kicking ideas around the concept of a non random market.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #633
  • Dec 29, 2013 10:05pm Dec 29, 2013 10:05pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Check your H1 Candles, J. Where is support, where is resistance...all inside of 1 hourly candle. Watch for a breakout, retrace and trigger. {image}

Will do, I will put something up around Frankfurt.

Edit, after making the adjustment, I decided to put something up now as a setup is in progress. No trigger yet.

But in keeping with the thread, even if we get the trigger, how is it more than a coin flip without insider info?

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If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #634
  • Dec 29, 2013 10:16pm Dec 29, 2013 10:16pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Will do, I will put something up around Frankfurt. Edit, after making the adjustment, I decided to put something up now as a setup is in progress. No trigger yet. But in keeping with the thread, even if we get the trigger, how is it more than a coin flip without insider info? {image}

There was a break and resistance on the Hourly...

Check it...

I'm only watching, still no trades for me until possibly next weeks open or the following. Depends on what market is looking like.


A happy spectator...
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #635
  • Dec 29, 2013 10:27pm Dec 29, 2013 10:27pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} No pattern in and of itself. I just threw an M1 chart up with M15 candles as the backdrop. Magix is suggesting that I use H1 for the large timeframe, wait for the pullback within H1 and the enter on the trigger( Genesis matrix). Just kicking ideas around the concept of a non random market.
All due respect to RJ and the matrix traders...

I'm a little more for stochs than am to a multi signal...this is really a lot closer to my trading...
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #636
  • Edited 11:11pm Dec 29, 2013 10:58pm | Edited 11:11pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} No pattern in and of itself. I just threw an M1 chart up with M15 candles as the backdrop. Magix is suggesting that I use H1 for the large timeframe, wait for the pullback within H1 and the enter on the trigger( Genesis matrix). Just kicking ideas around the concept of a non random market.
That is why you must observe the market more deeper.Playing a guessing game wont make you money.And if you want to analyze the market of searching for valid patterns, then you must use scientific method to evaluate their validity.

There could be a pattern there but just by looking at it ,its just not that obvious.Only an objective analysis can show the way.

A support /resistance game, may, not in all cases, tell you that those are key levels to look for.However it wont change the 50-50 odds, that is why i dont believe so much in S/R levels, i know they are nonrandom, but they still dont guide me the direction.A pullback at resistance has the same probability in most cases than a breakthrough, so where is my edge there ?

If there is any edge, then probably its a good pattern, an accumulation of volatility before the S/R level, could suggest a breakthrough for example.Try to check for those.Here is how i would trade a S/R breakout if i were you:

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"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #637
  • Dec 29, 2013 11:07pm Dec 29, 2013 11:07pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Sorry i forgot to adrress your post earlier, but here it goes now.I appreciate your research on this and i`m happy that i`m not the only one that observed that pattern. The problem with that could be and it is, that the pattern appears in high liquidity markets, where as we know that in average only 15-20% of the market is made of speculators.The rest is made of commercial traders, government money, interbank transfers and normal people exchanging their money, whom have nothing to do with forex trading, yet they add to the liquidity of the...
Unfortunately, I have not educated myself about “Rates” to consider myself to have an “informed” opinion. So, if I say something in ignorance, please forgive.
Quoting Proximus
....15-20% of the market is made of speculators.The rest is made of commercial traders, government money, interbank transfers and normal people exchanging their money, whom have nothing to do with forex trading
I’ll just stick to what I do know. The CTFC made a change to the COT report format. The old legacy report classified traders as commercials or spec. To better show transparency, they started producing the TiFF Report (traders in financial futures). Because there is a class of Commercials that fit both the buy side & sell participant. JP Morgan, i.e. are classified as Com.“Dealers”, the company creates a separate “entity” in which it can “act” like a “buy side” participant as Asset manger/Institutional, at the same time being “Dealers”. My point is you do have a class of commercial traders who on an everyday basis are hedging their risk, on Future positions, in the cash “spot” market. So much so the CFTC changed the format of the Cot to isolate these commercials to get a truer view of the buy & sell side of the market. Most commercial entities have a back office dept. whose job it is to follow the spot market. Imo these commercials have a lot to do with the FX market. Out of all the classes of traders, because they are insiders have a better sense of true value

Quoting Proximus
So given this, i dont think it is caused by human behaviour like fear and greed.It is caused by a mechanical process which is non-human.That is why i think its caused by the USD LIBOR and the EURIBOR fluctuations.
I got lost in the libor fluctuations reference (over my head) fundamentals are not my thing, belonging to the AMT “school of thought” I take for granted that “markets don’t turn on a dime” and fundamentals are priced in and therefore “observable” within price structure. I do know that Long term investors decisions are Fee & rate based driven. I don’t think they trade technicals at all. Those price patterns, Instead of a non human mechanical process, I see it as a very human reactional process. That run pause behavior imo is an algorithmic pattern using “price” as an advertizing mechanism used to solicit trade until enough sentiment builds. I apologize if I’m off base. One minute I read this thread & I think I’ve got a grasp on the topic and then the next minute, I don’t think I have a clue. The thread asked why have I accepted the price –predictability assumption? I haven’t, my school of thought is all about trading “probabilities”& “discresionary” trading . Probabilities & predictability imo are two very different animals……….imho, I don’t think you can “automated” the discresionary thought process……..
Again, I apologize if I’m off base………
Link to video explaining the TiFF report reference http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHHErptX-pM
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #638
  • Edited 11:42pm Dec 29, 2013 11:31pm | Edited 11:42pm
Quoting mzvega
{quote} Unfortunately, I have not educated myself about “Rates” to consider myself to have an “informed” opinion. So, if I say something in ignorance, please forgive. {quote} I’ll just stick to what I do know. The CTFC made a change to the COT report format. The old legacy report classified traders as commercials or spec. To better show transparency, they started producing the TiFF Report (traders in financial futures). Because there is a class of Commercials that fit both the buy side & sell participant. JP Morgan, i.e. are classified...
I found this nice picture illustrating very well how the market looks like (note the pic illustrates only the active traders not the entire market):

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As you can see, its very complex, and most of it is not made of "traders".Most market participants dont trade the market, these make up the bulk : government money, interbank transactions and international companies exchanging money for commerce.Only a very small fragment of the market is made of real speculators/traders who trade the market to make a living from.Most market participants only are in the market by default because of their activity.And dont forget the general population, who just exchange currencies for traveling/holiday (of course at a disadvantageous price).

So my point is, that these guys (~85%) dont even saw a chart in their life, let alone speculate, but they still move the markets, this is what i meant by not the speculators are the main movers of the market, but the other guys.So meaning that this could add up to the random value of the markets and make the market pseudo-random atleast,with a hidden seed (if not true random).Because a collective multi-interested entities could act random-like if we observe them collectively.

So the forex market is not like the stock market (which is much smaller and driven mostly by speculators), where indeed fear & greed emotions can be observed.Since forex is not driven by speculators,here emotions don't exist, its only an illusion to blind traders
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #639
  • Dec 29, 2013 11:50pm Dec 29, 2013 11:50pm
Quoting Proximus
However it wont change the 50-50 odds, that is why i dont believe so much in S/R levels, i know they are nonrandom, but they still dont guide me the direction.A pullback at resistance has the same probability in most cases than a breakthrough, so where is my edge there?
If an edge exists with S/R, it lies with the possibility that you can set a tight SL, and hence — on the occasions you happen to pick the right direction — obtain a high RR trade. Threads like Seneca_pilot's and wmd's give some good examples of these types of setups. But I agree with you; you would need to test this objectively to satisfy yourself that it delivers an edge, when combined with a suitable exit strategy.
  • #640
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:03am Dec 30, 2013 12:03am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Will do, I will put something up around Frankfurt. Edit, after making the adjustment, I decided to put something up now as a setup is in progress. No trigger yet. But in keeping with the thread, even if we get the trigger, how is it more than a coin flip without insider info? {image}
And you can see where the buyers stepped back in...

Still no hourly close or hourly breakout..
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
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