why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Quoting Chicky

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{quote} Always remember Chicky's Gamling Rule #2. If I were you, would focus on "I am saying a person should not lose more than 5% per year". Focusing more on risk than reward to me is most important element in this business. Just think, if you find a person willing to let you trade for him or her with an open profit expectation but a maximum loss of 5% in a year. The whole trading approach will be different.

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Quoting the redlion

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{quote} If this was the case that price at T_0 can affect future price then it would be said that price is Auto correlated .....yet it is not. This implies that future returns are not contingent upon past returns. Yet Price itself follows some rules as far as deviations of returns, or range....what I mean by this is that you do not have 1.3023 euro today and 5.20 tomorrow, followed by 700 the day after, the volatility is somewhat predictable of course with the occational outliers......Price is not normally distributed as has been shown in previous...

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Quoting PipMeUp

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{quote} I'm still unable to completely reject the autoregression assumption. Mainly because of nubcake's post about the way he recognized the random charts. We can't detect it either because it is changing too quickly (is price piece-wise ARFIMA?) or because it has an amplitude much smaller than the noise or both.

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Quoting Chicky

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{quote} I was kidding. Inserted that tongue out smily against my normal practice only out of respect for you. Me too don't believe in 1 pipper, or even 10 pippers or even 30 pippers. My sl is never less than 40 pips (in live trading). In fact, my rules say it should not be less than 45 pips. I am not consistent with my tps. My rules say 100 pips, no more, no less. But I don't follow this rule. Any profit above 45 pips is acceptable. The only reason for that many pip sl is, like you mentioned, the cost of spread. I try to minimize its ratio as much...

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Quoting billytt

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Hi guys, hope you are all good and enjoying the festivities

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Quoting rekon67

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{quote} Hi bill, Happy holidays!

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Quoting mzvega

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{quote} For what it might be worth, Id do an enormous amount of research, and there really "IS" something to that pattern. It's a "market maker algorithm" It describes the "Run, Pause" pattern in the Auction Market process, . But the "run, pause" alert is a very tradeable pattern when view from an Auction market perspective. When you expand sections of the MP indicator it looks very similar to the PF chart in the attached example. I've also attached an expanded view of the MP indicator found here at FF. By expanding the profile it allows you to...

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Quoting charvo

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maybe, nub's picking market chart is sort of due to this 'levels' thing?

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Quoting Magix

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{quote} Don't use period [0]. Wait for closed candle[1], and quit running back tests.

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Quoting PipMeUp

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{quote} I'm still unable to completely reject the autoregression assumption. Mainly because of nubcake's post about the way he recognized the random charts. We can't detect it either because it is changing too quickly (is price piece-wise ARFIMA?) or because it has an amplitude much smaller than the noise or both.

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Quoting charvo

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the discussion now are so off topic really but hey, i am still wondering sth about predictability here. because i never exercise reading a random chart, so my guess might be wildly wrong still, i guess, a market chart has obvious reaction to the levels. but random charts don’t! when price revisit a significant level, because price is collectively (or net) will of all traders, it more than 50% likely react to it than go thru it. (damn, i just give holy grail for free, nima...). this is so far the only real edge i've found. maybe, nub's picking market...

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Quoting mzvega

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{quote} For what it might be worth, Id do an enormous amount of research, and there really "IS" something to that pattern. It's a "market maker algorithm" It describes the "Run, Pause" pattern in the Auction Market process, . But the "run, pause" alert is a very tradeable pattern when view from an Auction market perspective. When you expand sections of the MP indicator it looks very similar to the PF chart in the attached example. I've also attached an expanded view of the MP indicator found here at FF. By expanding the profile it allows you to...

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Quoting Proximus

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{quote} Actually period 0 is much more accurate than period 1 because it gives you the signal 59 seconds earlier if used on m1, because it looks at tick data not m1 stick data.It gives many false signals aswell but period 1 does too, so not much to do with it.Neither will help me much.

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Quoting Magix

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Don't use period [0]. Wait for closed candle[1], and quit running back tests.

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Quoting Magix

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PERIOD[0], especially on an M1 chart causes way more headfakes, especially indicator based than does a closed candle. It assumes more than predicts. Markets are far to whippy on an M1 to allow this.

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Quoting Magix

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{quote} PERIOD[0], especially on an M1 chart causes way more headfakes, especially indicator based than does a closed candle. It assumes more than predicts. Markets are far to whippy on an M1 to allow this. Funny it didn't occur to you to ask me how I knew what you were working with...

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Quoting smash1820

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{quote} This is part of the problem my EA is facing as well. I have debated this single concept alone for well over a year. I think you are right, Magix, that close values are the way to go, but I'm also working on a method that uses candle[0], and it is still too early for me to say which is better. I do have a unique approach indeed, and sorry Magix for my previous comments. I do respect you as a trader and I guess I figured you've got some thick skin to be writing the way that you do. i'd still like to respond and say more, but I'm still busy...

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Quoting smash1820

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{quote} This is part of the problem my EA is facing as well. I have debated this single concept alone for well over a year. I think you are right, Magix, that close values are the way to go, but I'm also working on a method that uses candle[0], and it is still too early for me to say which is better. I do have a unique approach indeed, and sorry Magix for the comments. I do respect you as a trader and I guess I figured you've got some thick skin to be writing the way that you do. i'd still like to respond and say more, but I'm still busy catching...

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Quoting Magix

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{quote} In trend, assumption should be that price moves harder and faster in favor of the trend, you can test this manually with a real account and guessing a top or bottom. If you are looking for early entries and trying to gauge the speed of play...one idea is to use the bid and ask instead of period or Close[1]... if (iClose(NULL,0,1)>iOpen(NULL,0,1)&&Ask<iLow(NULL,0,1)) return (sell); This was a basic M15 trigger I wrote for Shits n Giggles to see if my theory would hold. This isn't something that can be applied to an M1 chart and causes...

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double BANDUP      = iBands( Symbol(),0,20,1, 0, PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_UPPER, 1);
double BANDDOWN= iBands( Symbol(),0,20,1, 0, PRICE_CLOSE,MODE_LOWER, 1);

if(Open[0]<BANDUP && Bid>BANDUP)
////////////////SELL
if(Open[0]>BANDDOWN && Ask<BANDDOWN)
////////////////BUY