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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #501
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:56pm Dec 27, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting Proximus
If a big trader puts 1m dollar to buy, until he finds another 1 million dollar valued EURO which is selled (in case of EUR/USD) then its order wont be executed, so until there is a counter-order there is no trade. If you trade with an ECN/STP then sometimes it can happen that your order wont be executed.However a market maker will always take the counter-order if not other order is present.So MM's give you huge pentalties if you trade big positions, margin requirement increases almost exponentially to every dollar
You've had this problem?

Do you understand Spread?

Spread widens on larger trades to execute the trade at volumes available.

MMs margin requirement increases based on the size and account type because they do not have the capital to back the same margin on a million as they would a thousand, dollar account.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #502
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:57pm Dec 27, 2013 1:57pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Hi Red, the source of my evidence is -- me. My trading is based on my experience as a trader, my educational background in economics and finance, etc. As for market structure, there are two parts of market structure to consider. The first is the story the charts are telling you every day; the second involves who is in control of the market, and you identified them, with heavy emphasis on central banks (CB), tier 1 banks, and hedge funds. Forex is a heavily manipulated market, and those three groups do much of the manipulation. Often, the...

Totally agree on the Manipulation bit.
Just on stop hunting, many good Traders loose their well learned edge.
People argue this is an excuse, and proper stop Placement solves the issue.
Problem is to avoid the hunting the Traders are forced to make a stop wider, losses will be potentially bigger, and winners smaller....after 30 trades, People end up barely surviving, provided they are really good...
CB own the financial planet and Forex.
  • #503
  • Dec 27, 2013 2:03pm Dec 27, 2013 2:03pm
Quoting smash1820
if you guys wanna bicker, yes including you Magix, please take it somewhere else.
Um....No

Thing is, Smash, this thread was created like most others under "Trading Discussion", to allow the free flow of ideas.

If we all agreed on the same points, there'd be no point. It would be the thread Op stating his position, and 47 pages of others replying, "Yup".

Quoting smash1820
i came here on this thread and to FF looking for a genuine partner to work with, trade with, and program with.
Here's your second problem. This isn't your thread, it isn't the, "Does anybody want to work with me?", thread.

You have picked an active discussion to troll for a partner. Don't get all pissed off because people aren't fighting to get in line. You too are out of context.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #504
  • Dec 27, 2013 2:05pm Dec 27, 2013 2:05pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I would be very happy to work with you.Yout attitude is the winner attitude here ,so where do we get started?
Great! Let's share what we've got so far. Shoot me a PM, or I will send you one, whoever gets around to it first.

Others are welcome to climb aboard too, but you must be flexible, open-minded, and extremely ambitious -- not to mention tolerant of others views.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #505
  • Dec 27, 2013 2:09pm Dec 27, 2013 2:09pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} It works, but is it successful, and by what measure is this success? {quote} This is a FOREX Forum. {quote} So do pr0n sites. A lot of people watch Honey Boo Boo and the Kardashians, I wouldn't lend any credibility to them. {quote} ALMOST???? ALMOST All of them?? {quote} So does Wednesday. So do Bank Holidays. So do Religious Observations. Means nothing.
Ok last reply to you and please dont bother replying...

Quote
It works, but is it successful, and by what measure is this success?

You measure success by money, the HF made the big bucks while you didnt made a penny...

Quote
This is a FOREX Forum.

A market is a market, and the news affect all financial markets

Quote
So do pr0n sites.
A lot of people watch Honey Boo Boo and the Kardashians, I wouldn't lend any credibility to them.

Irrelevant argument

Quote
ALMOST???? ALMOST All of them??

I`m not working at HF to count which one use them and which not, but due to reading articles about them i can pretty much assume that all serious traders check the news

Quote
So does Wednesday.
So do Bank Holidays.
So do Religious Observations.
Means nothing

Irrelevant again, i didnt said thats the only thing that gives the sentiment, but its only a block of it, and a pretty strong one

Quote
You've had this problem?

Do you understand Spread?

Spread widens on larger trades to execute the trade at volumes available.

No i didnt because i use STP, which has enought liquidity , and i mostly traded in the LONDON -NY sessions.

But ECN's hardly have spread, some of them doesnt even charge spread, and big boys dont trade big sums with MM, they trade it trough a big ECN bank which charges only a comission. And most of them uses 1:1 leverage to not get messed up with margin call.

Quote
MMs margin requirement increases based on the size and account type because they do not have the capital to back the same margin on a million as they would a thousand, dollar account

Again i was stating that if you'd trade large sums with MM, but since all big boys trade with ECN with 1:1 leverage this is not a problem
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #506
  • Dec 27, 2013 2:16pm Dec 27, 2013 2:16pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Um....No Thing is, Smash, this thread was created like most others under "Trading Discussion", to allow the free flow of ideas. If we all agreed on the same points, there'd be no point. It would be the thread Op stating his position, and 47 pages of others replying, "Yup". {quote} Here's your second problem. This isn't your thread, it isn't the, "Does anybody want to work with me?", thread. You have picked an active discussion to troll for a partner. Don't get all pissed off because people aren't fighting to get in line. You too are out...
First off, I'm not trolling any more than you are.

Second, I am not pissed off.

Third, you do make a couple of valid points. Within context. I will not deny that.

Fourth, and as you can see, I bring a lot of variety, and sanity, to this page. No one wants to hear bickering, and I have not participated in that if you noticed. There are other threads I can "troll" if that we're in fact my goal. But it is not, and I have found what I am looking for. So may I suggest reconsidering your words, I am afraid you are taking them much too literally...

And fifth, so be it. Now you know my thoughts. Feel free to hit me up Proximus. Over and out -- smash

Oh, and sixth, this is not your thread either.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #507
  • Dec 27, 2013 2:17pm Dec 27, 2013 2:17pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Ok last reply to you and please dont bother replying... {quote} You measure success by money, the HF made the big bucks while you didnt made a penny... {quote} A market is a market, and the news affect all financial markets {quote} Irrelevant argument {quote} I`m not working at HF to count which one use them and which not, but due to reading articles about them i can pretty much assume that all serious traders check the news {quote} Irrelevant again, i didnt said thats the only thing that gives the sentiment, but its only a block...

Make a list of all of the points you have attempted to make in this thread.

If you continue on long enough, add to this list how wrong you were on each and every point as you discover them.

IF/When this is complete, get back to me.

And when you do, no thanks is necessary, a simple statement that you were wrong and I am right will suffice.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #508
  • Dec 27, 2013 2:24pm Dec 27, 2013 2:24pm
I don't read the news on purpose, you form a bias then it goes and does its own thing and wipes you out.

Same news, 2 totally different market responses, there is no point reading news.


And get over, its volume which moves markets, eu is a high volume pair and hardly moves due to it.

And those 100 pip instant jumps, are just no orders to sell for 100 pips and 1 buyer, buying 1 lot, maybe.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #509
  • Dec 27, 2013 2:28pm Dec 27, 2013 2:28pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} First off, I'm not trolling any more than you are. Second, I am not pissed off. Third, you do make a couple of valid points. Within context. I will not deny that. Fourth, and as you can see, I bring a lot of variety, and sanity, to this page. No one wants to hear bickering, and I have not participated in that if you noticed. There are other threads I can "troll" if that we're in fact my goal. But it is not, and I have found what I am looking for. So may I suggest reconsidering your words, I am afraid you are taking them much too literally......
Yeah, ya are. You have added nothing to the discussion, and have clearly stated that you came here looking for a partner.
Yeah, ya are. Who else tries to dictate the rules if they are not satisfied by the conversation not steering towards their trollish intent?
Yeah, I do. Because the topic of thread, I have attempted to use market relevant evidence for any point I have made, (on topic), and requested further information when not enough is provided, or is false in content. What you refer to as bickering.
No, I don't. I actually haven't seen you bring anything that could loosely taken as variety or sanity on this page, as you have stated, you have not participated.

As for the last, I never claimed it to be my thread. Never tried to take over the thread, and certainly not for the reasons of trolling for a partner. I am doing my best to keep on point and can appreciate others that are doing the same.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #510
  • Dec 27, 2013 2:38pm Dec 27, 2013 2:38pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Yeah, ya are. You have added nothing to the discussion, and have clearly stated that you came here looking for a partner. Yeah, ya are. Who else tries to dictate the rules if they are not satisfied by the conversation not steering towards their trollish intent? Yeah, I do. Because the topic of thread, I have attempted to use market relevant evidence for any point I have made, (on topic), and requested further information when not enough is provided, or is false in content. What you refer to as bickering. No, I don't. I actually haven't seen...
And you are most certainly allowed to have those opinions. I am not trying to change your mind, or alter anything for that matter.

If anything, I was only trying to be nice, helpful, friendly, and SANE.

Although, I think you have proven what a self-righteous, narcissistic tool you are, and after these posts I am glad to NOT be working with you as a partner.

But good luck you anyways! (I know you don't need luck since you are so smart, but it's a way of trying to be polite ;D)
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #511
  • Dec 27, 2013 2:45pm Dec 27, 2013 2:45pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} And you are most certainly allowed to have those opinions. I am not trying to change your mind, or alter anything for that matter. If anything, I was only trying to be nice, helpful, friendly, and SANE. Although, I think you have proven what a self-righteous, narcissistic tool you are, and after these posts I am glad to NOT be working with you as a partner. But good luck you anyways! (I know you don't need luck since you are so smart, but it's a way of trying to be polite ;D)
k, Thanks!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #512
  • Dec 27, 2013 3:20pm Dec 27, 2013 3:20pm
can't help laughing here

dunno which side you guys are wrong or right, not interested either

but your declaration below simply put smile on my face, thank you very much!

btw, are you still building the holy grail EA???

look, technically, there's no difference from building a crap EA and a holy grail EA. in other words, if you can build a crap EA, you should be able to build a holy grail EA yourself instead of searching for a partner here---- and you are right, most ppl here are quite dumb, and you'll be disappointed ---- but hey, that's better than your holy grail EA disappointing the ppl here, lol

Quoting smash1820
Who cares about proof of a concept that is ambiguous and very vague, at best??? I know I don't. Why don't you all instead put your thinking caps on and challenge yourself to post something useful! I am working on building the holy grail EA -- or the closest thing to it. My system is the best there is... But it's not just for anyone. SO, who wants to work on it with me? There is no room for bickering or bashing. So I guess that kinda excludes you Magix.
  • #513
  • Dec 27, 2013 3:23pm Dec 27, 2013 3:23pm
Page 1 - Post 1 - the redlion

I am curious on what justification do any of us have to have accepted the assumption of price predictability and market innefficiency?
Is it faith or hope that in fact innefficiencies exist in the market and that we are actually able to profit? or do we actually have evidence and sufficient reason to support the asumption of an inneficient forex market?
In economics and finance it is often said that profit comes from information, a well informed investor is able to profit from temporary market inneficiencies or mispricing of certain assets, if in fact such inefficiencies occur.

What makes any of us well informed? why have you dismissed Efficient Market Hypothesis? or how exactly have you come to the conclusion that random walk is incorrect?


Lets move forward.....
Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.......
  • #514
  • Dec 27, 2013 4:03pm Dec 27, 2013 4:03pm
Quoting Ozzie Taz
Page 1 - Post 1 - the redlion I am curious on what justification do any of us have to have accepted the assumption of price predictability and market innefficiency? Is it faith or hope that in fact innefficiencies exist in the market and that we are actually able to profit? or do we actually have evidence and sufficient reason to support the asumption of an inneficient forex market? In economics and finance it is often said that profit comes from information, a well informed investor is able to profit from temporary market inneficiencies or mispricing...



According to efficient market theory all available information is efficiently impounded on price,

an efficient market does not allow price to get away from value, since the theory holds that information is of no value since it is factored
into market, as every price must represent fair value.

If price is always in equilibrium of value,then the theory presumes that prices are indisinguishable from one another in all but number. thus according to the efficient market hypothesis, all prices represent value, and the market is balanced at every moment, all the needs and concerns of the entire marketplace-- participants in every known and unknown timeframe are brought to the present by price representing value for all.

Different participants have different timeframes for buying and/or selling; longer timeframe participants seek to buy low and sell high,and short timeframe participants must transact sooner and cannot be as discriminating. Thus, all markets - including organized markets - are inefficient from the standpoint that participants with differing timeframes view the most recent price with differing opinions and do not participate at the same time and at the same price. In other words, a given price is not viewed as an equal opportunity for all. The market cannot at any one moment balance all the needs and concerns of the
entire marketplace - participants in every known and unknown timeframe since the most recent price does not represent the same thing to all participants.

In other words, no single price represents fair value for everyone.

Rather than being efficient, all organized markets are effective.They are effective from the standpoint that they produce and regulate
trade, bringing into play all participants over time. In other words, the market facilitates trade from all participants, not with each individual
price, but over a large sample size. The fact that participants with different time frames exist precludes a price dominated by one timeframe
from being fair value for all. The efficient market hypothesis overlooks the existence of participant timeframes.

The assumption of randomness and the "efficient market hypothesis" assumes that the market -- price movement over time -conveys
no knowledge or information. Instead, it assumes that if a trader profits from a market, he has resorted to predicting, and his luck will sooner
or later run out. However, one need not predict the future in a market of uncertainty. It is impossible to always accurately predict future
events. But we can monitor the market, understand its present condition, and how current price relates to the market' s current assessed
value, and from this, we can,logically deduce probable behavior, and adjust our assessment from the new information the market provides
as it unfolds. And by extracting bits of market-generated information, we can deduce and change.

Those who understand the condition of the market (where price over time is building value) are conveyed an advantage from which they can
profit whereas those who focus on prices against each other must assume randomness and no understanding.
  • #515
  • Dec 27, 2013 4:18pm Dec 27, 2013 4:18pm
Quoting PrymeTyme
{quote} According to efficient market theory all available information is efficiently impounded on price, an efficient market does not allow price to get away from value, since the theory holds that information is of no value since it is factored into market, as every price must represent fair value. If price is always in equilibrium of value,then the theory presumes that prices are indisinguishable from one another in all but number. thus according to the efficient market hypothesis, all prices represent value, and the market is balanced at every...
You couldn't have put that together any better.......
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #516
  • Dec 27, 2013 4:32pm Dec 27, 2013 4:32pm
Quoting Ozzie Taz
Page 1 - Post 1 - the redlion I am curious on what justification do any of us have to have accepted the assumption of price predictability and market innefficiency? Is it faith or hope that in fact innefficiencies exist in the market and that we are actually able to profit? or do we actually have evidence and sufficient reason to support the asumption of an inneficient forex market? In economics and finance it is often said that profit comes from information, a well informed investor is able to profit from temporary market inneficiencies or mispricing...
Well I'm not sure if I can answer the mathematical part of your question, but trading is about a lot more than that (and I assume we're all interested in successful and profitable trading). The fact that market "inefficiency"s occur must be true because, occasionally, you are able to get a price in the market that might be worth putting on a trade for. That means it would be worth the broker's spread or ask - bid at a minimum. Most brokers have a spread, I'll say, up to 5.0 pips -- mine is currently around 4 pips and I know that's not good but I'll switch to a better broker when I can.

So, in my opinion, if you can build an EA (or trade a manual system) with the basic assumption that any trade worth more than 4-5 pips represents a "good" trade, or whatever the spread may be, then technically the EA or system can make money under any and all market conditions. That is my opinion and basic template for building an EA or trading a manual system.

I have learned now in my years of trading there is still no better way to make money from the markets than by putting in the hours to trade them live, and an EA can -- at best -- be a replacement to that. Good and successful trading takes time to learn the skills and practice. It is my opinion that you need to put in the time and actually have a bare minimum of hours (x), as I have, and lot of training before you will become successful. You can shorten your learning curve, however, by studying price action, and just watching how it moves during all types of market conditions. With that said, I am just beginning to become profitable myself, after a very long and very difficult journey.

Quoting charvo
can't help laughing here dunno which side you guys are wrong or right, not interested either but your declaration below simply put smile on my face, thank you very much! btw, are you still building the holy grail EA??? look, technically, there's no difference from building a crap EA and a holy grail EA. in other words, if you can build a crap EA, you should be able to build a holy grail EA yourself instead of searching for a partner here---- and you are right, most ppl here are quite dumb, and you'll be disappointed ---- but hey, that's better than...
... And yes, charvo, I am still building the holy grail EA.. for MT4.. haha It is hard work, but you (or anyone) are free to join me if ya would like, and if ya have the skills
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #517
  • Dec 27, 2013 5:09pm Dec 27, 2013 5:09pm
ah, i guess i have the skill, but not a heart to code an EA now

manual trading is enough for me, and enough to fulfil my dream.

Quoting smash1820
{quote} ... And yes, charvo, I am still building the holy grail EA.. for MT4.. haha It is hard work, but you (or anyone) are free to join me if ya would like, and if ya have the skills
  • #518
  • Dec 27, 2013 5:23pm Dec 27, 2013 5:23pm
Quoting charvo
ah, i guess i have the skill, but not a heart to code an EA now manual trading is enough for me, and enough to fulfil my dream. {quote}
that's all you need.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #519
  • Dec 27, 2013 6:27pm Dec 27, 2013 6:27pm
Quoting Turveyd
I don't read the news on purpose, you form a bias then it goes and does its own thing and wipes you out. Same news, 2 totally different market responses, there is no point reading news. And get over, its volume which moves markets, eu is a high volume pair and hardly moves due to it. And those 100 pip instant jumps, are just no orders to sell for 100 pips and 1 buyer, buying 1 lot, maybe.
My friend consider this:
The news vs. the market response to it is an indicator of sentiment. ( Not always but frequently).
Take the USD at 8:30 or 10:00am EST. you can sometimes (not always, but sometimes) observe that the market ignores surprisingly good news or bad news, and goes the other way. That is an indication (usually), of strong market sentiment and gives you a hint at where the trend is likely to be.
Sometimes the news is not surprising, but the market takes off like it was just waiting for an excuse to do so. Same thing.

I agree. trading the news is not the way to go.
Trade the market's reaction to the news.
There are people out there ( like Henry Liu and Forex Trading Academy), that's all they do.
(I am not one of them, --but sometimes I seem to be, if that makes any sense).

I have observed that when news surprises during or just after the opening of the banks in Europe (2:00-#:00 am EST) or at 8:30 or 10:00 AM est., big moves occur. Sometimes you can take advantage of them.

It takes a seasoned hand. Go in too heavy too soon and you can get burned.

The usual advice to newbies is to stay away from these times because the spreads widen and the market acts differently than it does at other times.
But if you stay away, how can you get experience: acquire a touch?

I say go the smallest you can until you feel you have that touch. Nobody ever learned how to swim from a book...

(Of course books can give you ideas on how to improve your technique).

As to smash 1820:
Listen to him!

I don't know about EAs, though -- I tend to resent some dumb machine telling me what to do with my money... That's my bad...
  • #520
  • Dec 28, 2013 2:55am Dec 28, 2013 2:55am
Quoting Ozzie Taz
Page 1 - Post 1 - the redlion I am curious on what justification do any of us have to have accepted the assumption of price predictability and market innefficiency? Is it faith or hope that in fact innefficiencies exist in the market and that we are actually able to profit? or do we actually have evidence and sufficient reason to support the asumption of an inneficient forex market? In economics and finance it is often said that profit comes from information, a well informed investor is able to profit from temporary market inneficiencies or mispricing...
Forward to what?

There is not a single scientific or financial paper in circulation that would suggest that trading is anything more than a 50/50 proposition. Yes, there are people who come in and say that the market is not random, but none of them can quantify that statement. Magix, for example, is a good trader, we trade similarly, oddly enough. But, he is only flipping a weighted coin. That is all any of us do. The chances of us winning any trade is 50%.

Embrace the randomness, and set yourself free!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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