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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #481
  • Dec 27, 2013 12:16pm Dec 27, 2013 12:16pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Not really...in answer to the question: why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? You response is, "I don't". Just took you a really long time to get here. You are still lost... And then there is: {quote} You either require fundamentals or you don't... At this point, you have straddled both sides of the fence. Because others don't look for the same things that I do, in this non-random place, doesn't mean that it is random, just means that they haven't yet come to the same conclusions. I don't trade on the popular majority,...
Yes i admit i straddled both sides of the fence because they are both valid.You can make money by using fundamentals and you can make money by not using fundamentals.

I just prefer to use fundamentals if i trade manually, and not use fundamentals when i trade with my EA's.

But i accepted in both cases the fact that the market can be predicted, although you have a better accuracy with using fundamentals.Its really that hard to understand my point ?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #482
  • Dec 27, 2013 12:25pm Dec 27, 2013 12:25pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Good point but central banks cannot always reach their goals (a few pages ago or in another thread i dont remember back i was addressing a point when CB stepped in and cant manipulate the market because the market had other plans for itself).The yen for example is in deflation for decades now, and their central bank cant do sh*t about it.Manipulation is not a honest thing, so the controlling influence is always there but the forex market has a much higher degree of freedom because of its decentralized aspect than a stock index. edit: here...

Don't confuse BOJ's efforts a few years ago to control the appreciation of the yen with an inability to control the yen. It's fall from the mid-70's to 104 is a direct result of BOJ desires to see the currency weaken. The Fed has been exporting US deflation for several years now via QE with great success. BOA has been doing the same since the spring. You should never stand in the say of a CB move, short term or long term. What is important is to understand their intent before trading. In addition, you see tier 1 banks manipulating the markets every day. It's a part of daily market structure.
  • #483
  • Dec 27, 2013 12:28pm Dec 27, 2013 12:28pm
Quoting Proximus
Its really that hard to understand my point ?
Yes.
You haven't actually made a thread related relevant point, so, I have a really hard time understanding your point.


Quoting Proximus
although you have a better accuracy with using fundamentals.


Prove it.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #484
  • Dec 27, 2013 12:48pm Dec 27, 2013 12:48pm
Great post GEfx. I agree!

Quoting Proximus
Yes i admit i straddled both sides of the fence because they are both valid.You can make money by using fundamentals and you can make money by not using fundamentals. I just prefer to use fundamentals if i trade manually, and not use fundamentals when i trade with my EA's. But i accepted in both cases the fact that the market can be predicted, although you have a better accuracy with using fundamentals.Its really that hard to understand my point ?
And hey dude,

I just noticed your signature, and I like very much...

Oh yeah, and Proximus has no obligation to prove anything to anyone, just like neither do I... unless he or I decides that we want to and feel like it!

What do you say we cut out all the bickering, join forces, and build the holy grail together?!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #485
  • Dec 27, 2013 12:50pm Dec 27, 2013 12:50pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} I am not exactly sure what you mean by quantifying my set ups... My trading is based on more of an IF-Then. These just offer areas to take trades based on previous market relevant areas. Kind of the Chart Whispers.
What I mean by quantify is have you gone through you set-ups, found out which ones work the best, and attached a percent probability to them? Your template does make it easy to see when you are on the wrong side of the market. Have gone through the different combinations and found which ones work better than a coin flip?

Say M1, M5...M5, H1.....M5, H4,.....etc. Have you put the different combinations of time frames through some sort of mathematical rigor?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #486
  • Dec 27, 2013 12:52pm Dec 27, 2013 12:52pm
Quoting smash1820
Great post GEfx. I agree! {quote} And hey dude, I just noticed your signature, and I like very much... What do you say we cut out all the bickering, join forces, and build the holy grail together?!
I think we are kind of doing that. This has been a good discussion on market structure. Applying some kind of scientific method to our beliefs always helps.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #487
  • Edited 1:09pm Dec 27, 2013 12:56pm | Edited 1:09pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Yes. You haven't actually made a thread related relevant point, so, I have a really hard time understanding your point. .
If you so harsh on me, i should be the same harsh on you..So did you made any relevant post here? By showing a bunch of charts and colored rectangles on it with a 200 ma/ 20 ma cross makes your dream system, then warn me to never invest if your HF in you will have one, because it will fail in the long term.

Quoting Magix
Prove it.

  1. Twitter news bot works
  2. Reuters & Bloomberg news feed helping many stock traders
  3. Yahoo/Google finance pages viewed by millions of people daily
  4. CNN gets watched by millions of people when they have their financial report
  5. Almost every HF or instituion of trade is connected to some form of news feed
  6. You cant really ignore an economic calendar's impact on price, any major impact event will most likely cause a big 100+ pip bar or so
  7. Dozens of trading information sites use news feed and social tools to check peoples opinion about news related events, current market sentiment or just the general opinion like investing.com or others
  8. All news are the basic building blocks of the general sentiment, which can be easily tracked on the chart, though not all of them have an immediate impact, but all of them have atleast a slight impact on the FX rates

"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #488
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:04pm Dec 27, 2013 1:04pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} What I mean by quantify is have you gone through you set-ups, found out which ones work the best, and attached a percent probability to them? Your template does make it easy to see when you are on the wrong side of the market. Have gone through the different combinations and found which ones work better than a coin flip? Say M1, M5...M5, H1.....M5, H4,.....etc. Have you put the different combinations of time frames through some sort of mathematical rigor?
I'm not much of a stats guy, so, quantify by basis of which work better, by mathematical figures, I cannot provide.

I watch the M5-H1 as per a close version of the .tpl that you found and trigger on the M1.

Because I will typically watch 6 pairs and trade 1 to 2 of them, it is more just a matter of having my finger on the pulse of market.

I wait to see price reaction to something as simple as a previous hourly close and compare this to simple Moving Averages, watch all 4 majors trade and use the reactionaries to pick the highest probability for range.

If EURGBP, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY are bullish, and USDJPY is bearish, which pair will give you the greatest range on a long?
If EURGBP, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY are bullish, and USDJPY is bearish, which pair would you sit out?
(hint, the answer will never be EURGBP)

These of course also need to be taken in consideration with the individual sessions and can help you find them times to sit out. If all are deadlined, surf some pr0n, go for a nap, walk the dog, eat a sammich...DON'T TRADE.

There are a lot of factors that I personally consider when taking a trade, the above mentioned are the base.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #489
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:12pm Dec 27, 2013 1:12pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} If you so harsh on me, i should be the same harsh on you..So did you made any relevant post here? By showing a bunch of charts and colored rectangles on it with a 200 ma/ 20 ma cross makes your dream system, then warn me to never invest if your HF in you will have one, because it will fail in the long term.
I've traded 7 figures in market and have no plans to go back. I am not trolling for investors, I am comfortable working with my own funds in market.

As for the 20/200 cross, this is an observation. That's all.

If you see something once, it is an occurrence, twice is a coincidence, ignoring it after the third is blatant ignorance. This seems to be a trend with you, so, I really can't be offended by your comments.

Quoting Proximus
Twitter news bot works Reuters & Bloomberg news feed helping many stock traders Yahoo/Google finance pages viewed by millions of people daily CNN gets watched by millions of people when they have their financial report Almost every HF or instituion of trade is connected to some form of news feed You cant really ignore an economic calendar's impact on price, any major impact event will most likely cause a big 100+ pip bar or so Dozens of trading information sites use news feed and social tools to check peoples opinion about news related events, current...
How is this proof of anything?

Where does this actually show me a single solitary set of comparable data that I could draw my own conclusions from?

These are inferences taken out of context and reference.

Does the Sun come up because the Rooster crows?
or
Does the Rooster crow because the Sun comes up?

The absence of proof is not in itself proof and any inference out of context is worthless. Won't hold up in a court of law, and I think we should all have the same expectation on this burden.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #490
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:14pm Dec 27, 2013 1:14pm
Instead of looking for a Holy Grail, Maybe its time to think about building the Ark....

What do I mean by that?

Let us set this as axiomatic: No mathematical formula will enable you to calculate the best entry point, take profit, and stop loss levels ever, except by the merest of chances. Even when it does, you will not know it until after the fact.

Probability, chaos, and game theory are both fascinating in themselves, and sometimes provide useful insights, But there is no branch of mathematics extant which will consistently do the above.

(This leaves the chance that some genius will come up the a new mathematical discipline to do the same - Maybe some variance of Knot theory- who knows?)

Meanwhile, since we are determined to launch ourselves on the flood waters, let us try to build a craft that will survive all the vicissitudes that lie in our way.

To do so means that essentially we have rejected the price - predictability assumption.

I can see clearly now, the rain has gone,
I can see all the obstacles in my wa-ay... ( They don't have a singing icon)
  • #491
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:21pm Dec 27, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting Magix
How is this proof of anything? Where does this actually show me a single solitary set of comparable data that I could draw my own conclusions from? These are inferences taken out of context and reference. Does the Sun come up because the Rooster crows? or Does the Rooster crow because the Sun comes up? The absence of proof is not in itself proof and any inference out of context is worthless. Won't hold up in a court of law, and I think we should all have the same expectation on this burden.
It's proof because if you go in any succesful trading floor they all have a news feed, no succesful and professional trader would ignore them, and certainly not the major news.

Its not absense of proof, its inductive logic , if the best succesful traders use news then probably the news have to be worth looking.Note that inductive logic doesnt assume certainty it only gives a probable conclusion.Which supported by the fact that most traders dont use news, or dont interpret it correctly (thats why they lose and that distinguishes a loser from a winner in some cases), proves that news are good, but only if its interpreted propertly.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #492
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:28pm Dec 27, 2013 1:28pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} It's proof because if you go in any succesful trading floor they all have a news feed, no succesful and professional trader would ignore them, and certainly not the major news. Its not absense of proof, its inductive logic , if the best succesful traders use news then probably the news have to be worth looking.Note that inductive logic doesnt assume certainty it only gives a probable conclusion.Which supported by the fact that most traders dont use news, or dont interpret it correctly,...

Wait a second...there is a trading floor for FOREX...

By Golly, that is News to me....

I would also bet that there is a Starbucks within 1 square block, a McDonalds even closer, 8 stalls per bathroom, and as many support staff as there are traders.

Would these also be required for success in FOREX?

Not only can you effectively not stay on topic...you have the inability to prove the merits of anything you have posted.

Quoting Magix
your mind is fast becoming a top 10 place I hope to never find myself.
You've just hit the top 5.

And isn't this inductive logic, what you had previously mentioned as a Flaw in the Human Mind? Making and Seeing patterns where they do not exist...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #493
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:30pm Dec 27, 2013 1:30pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I`m 100% certain that's impossible.The market itself needs participants, without selling nobody can buy AND without buying nobody can sell? If you go to your clothes shop and nobody sells a jacket, then how can you buy the jacket?
So no sellers for 100 pips, 1 buyer at market will move the market 100pips.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #494
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:36pm Dec 27, 2013 1:36pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Wait a second...there is a trading floor for FOREX... By Golly, that is News to me.... I would also bet that there is a Starbucks within 1 square block, a McDonalds even closer, 8 stalls per bathroom, and as many support staff as there are traders. Would these also be required for success in FOREX? Not only can you effectively not stay on topic...you have the inability to prove the merits of anything you have posted. {quote} You've just hit the top 5. And isn't this inductive logic, what you had previously mentioned as a Flaw in the Human...
Ok i`m done with you.What you do is , whatever i say to defend my arguments you just twist my words, and cherrypick what you dont like about it and ignore the rest of my argument.

If you reread my last 4-5 posts you can see all the answers to your questions.Trolling them further makes no sense.And i belive we went way offtopic from the main thread discussion anyway.

If you dont agree with me, fine i wont feel insulted, but please keep your ideas for yourself, because i lost interest of discussing with you.

Quoting Magix
{quote} Wait a second...there is a trading floor for FOREX... By Golly, that is News to me.... I would also bet that there is a Starbucks within 1 square block, a McDonalds even closer, 8 stalls per bathroom, and as many support staff as there are traders. Would these also be required for success in FOREX? Not only can you effectively not stay on topic...you have the inability to prove the merits of anything you have posted. {quote} You've just hit the top 5. And isn't this inductive logic, what you had previously mentioned as a Flaw in the Human...
You have forgot that, actually you were the one who was talking about patterns a few pages ago, you i suggest you should reread the last 2-3 pages of this thread.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #495
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:37pm Dec 27, 2013 1:37pm
Who cares about proof of a concept that is ambiguous and very vague, at best???

I know I don't.

Why don't you all instead put your thinking caps on and challenge yourself to post something useful!

I am working on building the holy grail EA -- or the closest thing to it.

My system is the best there is... But it's not just for anyone.

SO, who wants to work on it with me? There is no room for bickering or bashing. So I guess that kinda excludes you Magix.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #496
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:38pm Dec 27, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting Proximus
Twitter news bot works
It works, but is it successful, and by what measure is this success?

Quoting Proximus
Reuters & Bloomberg news feed helping many stock traders
This is a FOREX Forum.

Quoting Proximus
Yahoo/Google finance pages viewed by millions of people daily CNN gets watched by millions of people
So do pr0n sites.
A lot of people watch Honey Boo Boo and the Kardashians, I wouldn't lend any credibility to them.

Quoting Proximus
Almost every HF or instituion of trade is connected to some form of news feed You cant really ignore an economic calendar's impact on price
ALMOST???? ALMOST All of them??


Quoting Proximus
All news are the basic building blocks of the general sentiment, which can be easily tracked on the chart, though not all of them have an immediate impact, but all of them have atleast a slight impact on the FX rates
So does Wednesday.
So do Bank Holidays.
So do Religious Observations.
Means nothing.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #497
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:42pm Dec 27, 2013 1:42pm
Quoting Proximus
but please keep your ideas for yourself, because i lost interest of discussing with you. {quote} You have forgot that, actually you were the one who was talking about patterns a few pages ago, you i suggest you should reread the last 2-3 pages of this thread.
Here's the killer.

My posts are not only Market Relevant, same with the observation of patterns in market...they are in keeping with the thread topic.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #498
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:47pm Dec 27, 2013 1:47pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} So no sellers for 100 pips, 1 buyer at market will move the market 100pips.
I understand ,but the truth is there cant be no sellers only or buyers only, if there is no seller AND buyer = no tick is coming, if a new buyer comes it must be accompanied by a seller, so depending how large its position is it moves the market in that direction.

If a big trader puts 1m dollar to buy, until he finds another 1 million dollar valued EURO which is selled (in case of EUR/USD) then its order wont be executed, so until there is a counter-order there is no trade.

If you trade with an ECN/STP then sometimes it can happen that your order wont be executed.However a market maker will always take the counter-order if not other order is present.So MM's give you huge pentalties if you trade big positions, margin requirement increases almost exponentially to every dollar

EDIT: So it doesnt necessarly 1 order move the market 100 pip because it gets balanced out, like a scale, and the market gets to equilibrium.The big 100 pip move must be caused by something else
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #499
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:52pm Dec 27, 2013 1:52pm
Suit yourself guys. I try to avoid judging people as much as I can, it only gets you into trouble.

if you guys wanna bicker, yes including you Magix, please take it somewhere else.

i came here on this thread and to FF looking for a genuine partner to work with, trade with, and program with. Yet it seems no one is smart enough or mature enough to even know what that means. Because trust me, my system is the real deal and it downright works. You will not find a better partner anywhere else, which is the irony of this all.

i am holding back from starting my own thread now bc the system is sop good, I'm not sure I'm ready to disclose it to the public... And especially people like you.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #500
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:54pm Dec 27, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting smash1820
Who cares about proof of a concept that is ambiguous and very vague, at best??? I know I don't. Why don't you all instead put your thinking caps on and challenge yourself to post something useful! I am working on building the holy grail EA -- or the closest thing to it. My system is the best there is... But it's not just for anyone. SO, who wants to work on it with me? There is no room for bickering or bashing. So I guess that kinda excludes you Magix.
I would be very happy to work with you.Yout attitude is the winner attitude here ,so where do we get started?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
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