why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 22 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

So I accepted a Prop Trading job in South Beach Miami 44 replies

Why you shouldn't show how much you have made in FX 35 replies

Incorporating Slippage Assumption in backtesting 4 replies

Market Predictability - Technical Signals 25 replies

Contesting the Accepted View of Bernanke 0 replies

Attachments: why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?
Exit Attachments

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #421
  • Dec 26, 2013 2:48pm Dec 26, 2013 2:48pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_noise

Noise gathered, via a radio signal from the atmosphere, very clever!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #422
  • Dec 26, 2013 2:56pm Dec 26, 2013 2:56pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Definately not your programming, the data hmmmm, I'll have a look at it tomorrow when I get bored when more awake, maybe there is not enough atmospheric noise tonight for it to be sampling I guess. If you flip a coin, +1 for Tails and -1 for heads and plot the chart, you'll end up with a near perfect straight line with wibble along it ofcourse, but the odds on throwing Tails X times is the same as Heads X times, so they'll still balance themselves out. Although you'll get a slight upward trend, depending on the coin used, the HEAD is heavier...
Thats how it is, the price must be continuous so i use substracting and adding, but the direction is just a bunch of random 0 and 1, so its statistically independent, so the stuff you see "trend" there is just an unlikely event, caused many by consecutive 0 or 1.Which could be a 3-4 sigma event which could repeat after every 370-15000 candlestick (68–95–99.7_rule).Its just random belive me And i have a pretty strong feeling the market is also behaving like this , except that there is a bias but its hidden very well.

Quote
maybe there is not enough atmospheric noise tonight for it to be sampling I guess



I can assure you there is always enough atmospheric noise, maybe a tornado happened nearby the gathering station which distorted my data
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #423
  • Dec 26, 2013 3:06pm Dec 26, 2013 3:06pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Thats how it is, the price must be continuous so i use substracting and adding, but the direction is just a bunch of random 0 and 1, so its statistically independent, so the stuff you see "trend" there is just an unlikely event, caused many by consecutive 0 or 1.Which could be a 3-4 sigma event which could repeat after every 370-15000 candlestick (68–95–99.7_rule).Its just random belive me And i have a pretty strong feeling the market is also behaving like this ,...

Short of finding a C64 and remembering what Byte to peek to get the random number of the sound chip, then how the hell do I get the data off a C64 onto anything useable ( emulated won't work, as it's a psuedo generated number being fed to the SID chip, which all C64 games use ), or spend all night rolling dice and flipping a coin I'm at a loss as how to generate truely random numbers to compare.

Anyway sleep, if I stop coughing, night!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #424
  • Dec 26, 2013 3:11pm Dec 26, 2013 3:11pm
Truely random 0's and 1's, would come to approx the same amount of each, shall check that tomorrow your sample and a bigger sample from the site.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #425
  • Dec 26, 2013 3:12pm Dec 26, 2013 3:12pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Short of finding a C64 and remembering what Byte to peek to get the random number of the sound chip, then how the hell do I get the data off a C64 onto anything useable ( emulated won't work, as it's a psuedo generated number being fed to the SID chip, which all C64 games use ), or spend all night rolling dice and flipping a coin I'm at a loss as how to generate truely random numbers to compare. Anyway sleep, if I stop coughing, night!!
Its easy, get a microphone, put it somewhere where its quiet, let it record then cut off the large amplitude waves (mostly caused by human noise or the stuff in your house) from the sound file and then convert the remaining noise in the sound file into 0,1 bits and you have a random binary data.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #426
  • Dec 26, 2013 3:15pm Dec 26, 2013 3:15pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Well then you didnt saw M1 data i guess, and not all of it is hole the hole size is random aswell, it can be no hole to the gap size what you want it to be.Its not depending on the generator but rather at the data. In the new version you can set the distance as you wish, if you dont want gap between CLOSE[1] and OPEN[0] then open up a .txt file write a 0 in it and load that at the CLOSE-OPEN distance file and there you got, no gaps. Although its not very realistic, but as you wish.So its not the problem with the program, its with the data,...
How do uniform and random fit in the same sentence?

It isn't just my perception of pattern recognition that shows a bullish trend, it is the base level definition of the trend that does. If the close of any specified period is higher than the open, this is a bullish trend. Whether random or nor is irrelevant. Perhaps you require fundamentals to be present in order for this to qualify as a trend?

In any case, there is still absolutely no value in this. Random, worthless bullshit.

All you have done is create a random candle generator, poorly, and fail to recognize what the data states. IMO, you have too much time and not enough porn.

I've lost interest in speaking with you and am not going to waste anymore time reading your worthless tripe, don't feel the need to respond.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #427
  • Dec 26, 2013 3:20pm Dec 26, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} How do uniform and random fit in the same sentence? It isn't just my perception of pattern recognition that shows a bullish trend, it is the base level definition of the trend that does. If the close of any specified period is higher than the open, this is a bullish trend. Whether random or nor is irrelevant. Perhaps you require fundamentals to be present in order for this to qualify as a trend? In any case, there is still absolutely no value in this. Random, worthless bullshit. All you have done is create a random candle generator, poorly,...

He's trying to prove that random charts look the same as real charts.

But a random chart, wouldn't know to go flat and dead ( straight after I place a trade ) several hours before NFP / FED then wouldn't jump into life, with a purpose full direction ( bad example, it's normally, random up 100, down 100, up 100 arggghhh ) but yeah.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #428
  • Edited 3:38pm Dec 26, 2013 3:26pm | Edited 3:38pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} How do uniform and random fit in the same sentence? It is my perception of pattern recognition that shows a bullish trend, it is the base level definition of the trend that does. If the close of any specified period is higher than the open, this is a bullish trend. Whether random or nor is irrelevant. Perhaps you require fundamentals to be present in order for this to qualify as a trend? In any case, there is still absolutely no value in this. Random, worthless bullshit. All you have done is create a random candle generator, poorly, and...
OMG your ignorancy just hit a new high.First of all i was talking about http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uniform_distribution

If you dont believe that random data can behave uniformly i suggest to learn basic statistics.

Quote
Perhaps you require fundamentals to be present in order for this to qualify as a trend?

Yes i do because i know that fundamentals are present in the market and are not present in my random data, so the bias in the market is caused by fundamentals.While in my data there is just simply no bias because its random.

If you think a HH and LL qualifies as a trend, then be it, thats your definition of trend, mine is that a trend is caused by something, and external fundamental factor,so its hidden and it only can be seen after its gone, you can only predict it by knowing the fundamentals.

And looking at random data trying to find pattenrs in it its just waste of time.IF the market were like this, then nobody could make money off it except the market makers the banks.But luckily its otherwise.

The trend is your friend, and the trend is not random

Quote
All you have done is create a random candle generator, poorly, and fail to recognize what the data states. IMO, you have too much time and not enough porn.

I've lost interest in speaking with you and am not going to waste anymore tim reading anymore of your worthless tripe, don't feel the need to respond.

What the data states? Its random, its a noise, what would expect from that? 50-50 chance of being up or down, the fact that more candles are up then down consecutively its just pure chance, a streak.

I also lost interest in explaining my views to you.If you dont like my program dont use it, if you dont belive my data is random enough, then get yourself a better quality data, complaining here about it wont help.If you'd read my previous 5 posts i was explaining the same stuff for the 5th time.And starting to think that people here just want to troll
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #429
  • Dec 26, 2013 3:32pm Dec 26, 2013 3:32pm
Hey I like playing with random numbers and stat's as much as the next geek
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #430
  • Dec 26, 2013 3:38pm Dec 26, 2013 3:38pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} OMG your ignorancy just hit a new high.First of all i was talking about http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uniform_distribution If you dont believe that random data cant behave uniformly i suggest to learn basic statistics. {quote} Yes i do because i know that fundamentals are present in the market and are not present in my random data, so the bias in the market is caused by fundamentals.While in my data there is just simply no bias because its random. If you think a HH and LL qualifies as a trend, then be it, thats your definition...
Nothing to do with me trolling, Ace.

Just a firm belief that what you have done is completely market irrelevant.

And now that you've stated your position that fundamentals need be present in order for a trend to be present, I can add this to the list of reasons that you are confused by market.

Again, you take what can be forecasted and lose sight of the fact that price is not random, but time is...

We can forecast where price is heading and determine the most probable destination. We cannot forecast when it will get there.

Your random generated tripe and theory is meaningless.

And I won't use it. Not that I believe I can create better, but whatever I would create would be equally as worthless. It would be like comparing who creates the best tasting shit sandwich by the color of the turd. If nobody will taste to compare, the effort is foolishly spent.

Because you fail to recognize supply and demand zones, that's really your problem. Not mine.

But hey, if this is how you see fit to spend your time, go nuts.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #431
  • Dec 26, 2013 3:48pm Dec 26, 2013 3:48pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Nothing to do with me trolling, Ace. Just a firm belief that what you have done is completely market irrelevant. And now that you've stated your position that fundamentals need be present in order for a trend to be present, I can add this to the list of reasons that you are confused by market. Again, you take what can be forecasted and lose sight of the fact that price is not random, but time is... We can forecast where price is heading and determine the most probable destination. We cannot forecast when it will get there. Your random generated...
Its certainly not market irrelevant, as PipMEUP and the_redlion did, we are diving into the randomness.And the funny thing is that the random numbers are the most accurate modeling that we discovered so far.If you believe you can model the market with better methods, then go and do it, but for us random numbers are the closest to describe the market.

As for the trend part, its a bias, the bias comes from outside, so the market after adding the trend gets biased, but it still remains random, like an unfair coin.The market without bias is truly random just like my random generator did.

SUPPLY and DEMAND or S/R or whatever you want to call it its just an illusion, i can point many support and resistance levels in my random data aswell.Are they real and accurate? Of course not because its just a random mess.

Its only an illusion to the eye, but luckily there are patterns in the real market, but i`m certain you wont find those either with only your eye.Because human perception is flawed, the human brain looks for patterns ever where there is none to be found.

As for success, well i did made progress with this research, and i would not be talking here about it if i would find it insignificant.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #432
  • Dec 26, 2013 3:58pm Dec 26, 2013 3:58pm
I have not read all the latest posts, but I think that Wolf has a point: what is random and what is not is/could be a matter of individual perception, to me is not because I see structures, are my structure just my perception? maybe, but what I know, the market is a sea of uncertainty, without boundaries and if I do not create my own "structures", the market is just going to make fun of me.

Somebody can say that a trader can also pull money out of the market without structures, yes I believe that is true, but isn't that a structure per se?
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #433
  • Dec 26, 2013 3:58pm Dec 26, 2013 3:58pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Its certainly not market irrelevant, as PipMEUP and the_redlion did, we are diving into the randomness.And the funny thing is that the random numbers are the most accurate modeling that we discovered so far.If you believe you can model the market with better methods, then go and do it, but for us random numbers are the closest to describe the market. As for the trend part, its a bias, the bias comes from outside, so the market after adding the trend gets biased, but it still remains random, like an unfair coin.The market without bias is...

Sure, point out supply and demand zones in your market randomness...it's still worthless.

You are still not taking into consideration market sessions, and the reasons behind supply and demand zones, so again, your patterns are still worthless. Market is very cliché, and there are reasons behind it. Whether you choose to understand it or not, is entirely your decision.

As far as the human perception being flawed and trained to recognize patterns, this too is a worthless statement. We live our lives by static principles and rules, not by randomness. We come to accept empirical truths and continue to live our lives by these. These repetitious actions and reactions are not going to change, so our minds fill in the blanks as necessary.

Go try walk on water today.
Go again tomorrow.
And the day after and after and after.

If there is no change in the state of water, our minds comprehend that we will never be able to walk on water. So, when we see what we believe the mirrored image on the ground to be water, we avoid it, knowing there is the possibility of an unfavourable outcome.

It really doesn't get any easier to understand than this.

You can argue until you are blue in the face or for here, until your fingers fall off...I will still continue to trade price to supply and demand and assume the trend as it presents. If you have the inability to do this, and the data presented in a 24 hour market, I would suggest that trading is not your forte and suggest that if it is a random number generator that gets you all pumped up, pick lottery numbers. This is the only thing it will be good for.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #434
  • Dec 26, 2013 4:13pm Dec 26, 2013 4:13pm
Sorry Magix, but he has a point the human brain does see pattens when there aren't, some people see them differently and better ( GDR32 for instance ).

We are M1 guys, so not it's not going to respresent M1 data, no chance mainly due to news and markets opening / closing, but H4 becomes random enough cause of the length of the sample.

We have already established, Candles are randomly form and trading off them is moronic as I've been saying and getting hate for, for years

And think just proved H4 is yes also pretty much random, so trading H4 is also moronic, not quite as moronic az candles though.


Ofcourse not quite random, isn't random still, but hey!


Good nights work done, while terminally BORED!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #435
  • Dec 26, 2013 4:14pm Dec 26, 2013 4:14pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Sure, point out supply and demand zones in your market randomness...it's still worthless.
The same worthless is your approach to point out S/R or S/D zones in the real market aswell, because those parts of the market are just as random as this.There is inneficiency where money can be made, but i`m sure they are not with this method.

Quote
You are still not taking into consideration market sessions, and the reasons behind supply and demand zones, so again, your patterns are still worthless. Market is very cliché, and there are reasons behind it. Whether you choose to understand it or not, is entirely your decision.

The funny thing, is that i`m still researching on market liquidity, so i cant say anything certain yet, but the info that i gathered so far is that market sessions does not affect the outcome of the market

Because low liquidity is increasing the randomness not decreasing, and the structure may seem distorted, but look at many day's data outside the LONDON NY session and see that i`m talking about.

The low liquidity on the other hand affects the RISK /REWARD, thus the spread fluctuation, but thats another topic, so you kinda have a point there it affects the outcome of your trade only (depending on what system you use), but certainly not the outcome of the market in general.

Quote
As far as the human perception being flawed and trained to recognize patterns, this too is a worthless statement. We live our lives by static principles and rules, not by randomness. We come to accept empirical truths and continue to live our lives by these. These repetitious actions and reactions are not going to change, so our minds fill in the blanks as necessary.

Go try walk on water today.
Go again tomorrow.
And the day after and after and after.

If there is no change in the state of water, our minds comprehend that we will never be...

If you are ignoring the randomness around you its pretty sad.There is no absolute certainty in the universe, if you look around you pretty much everything is random, the movement of air, movement of atoms, etc...

So mastering the randomness is very very useful which gives us useful things like : weather prediction, national level statistics , population statistics, and its useful in all sciences.

I`m not saying that you can walk on water or fly, of course there is order in everything, so as in the market, but the fundamental basis is random, weather you like it or not.If you dont like it, that doesnt mean that its not like this
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #436
  • Dec 26, 2013 4:22pm Dec 26, 2013 4:22pm
Quoting Turveyd
Sorry Magix, but he has a point the human brain does see pattens when there aren't, some people see them differently and better ( GDR32 for instance ). We are M1 guys, so not it's not going to respresent M1 data, no chance mainly due to news and markets opening / closing, but H4 becomes random enough cause of the length of the sample. We have already established, Candles are randomly form and trading off them is moronic as I've been saying and getting hate for, for years And think just proved H4 is yes also pretty much random, so trading H4 is...

What is bullshit turv,

I have posted charts to show 100% predictability.

Compare that to randomness?

So, I say I am right because I can forecast price and have proven it (in this thread)...he says he is right because he can't forecast price.

That doesn't mean he is correct or that market is random, just means that he doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #437
  • Edited 4:40pm Dec 26, 2013 4:29pm | Edited 4:40pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} What is bullshit turv, I have posted charts to show 100% predictability. Compare that to randomness? So, I say I am right because I can forecast price and have proven it (in this thread)...he says he is right because he can't forecast price. That doesn't mean he is correct or that market is random, just means that he doesn't know his ass from a hole in the ground.

Oh boy, you are now confusing 2 different termonologies.

RANDOMNESS DOESNT EQUAL NON-PREDICTABILITY

ITS ONLY EQUAL IF ITS A 50-50%, which is in most cases, the fact that you could predict the market just means that you hit the market when its was biased by a trend or an external factor.Then, when its edged its a 60-40% "unfair coin" its still biased, and its still random, because you never know what will happen ahead, but you know that if you do it enough times, it will lean towards the 60% value.Thus an edged market is also random, and it also can be predicted.

You argument is invalid!

I am searching for this biases/edges/ inneficiencies also, but i never ever said that the market cannot be predicted just because its random.I dont know where you get those ideas.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #438
  • Dec 26, 2013 4:34pm Dec 26, 2013 4:34pm
Efficiency markets never exist (there isn't one in the entire world) - that's the joke

They're a model of how markets should operate, but never will.
  • #439
  • Dec 26, 2013 4:51pm Dec 26, 2013 4:51pm
Quoting Proximus
Thus an edged market is also random, and it also can be predicted. You argument is invalid!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #440
  • Dec 26, 2013 5:06pm Dec 26, 2013 5:06pm
Quoting Proximus
Oh boy, you are now confusing 2 different termonologies.

If I could show you the way to disprove your randomness, would you take the time to learn?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
1 trader viewing now