Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 189 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Supply and Demand Zones 57 replies

Price movement as a function of Supply and Demand 43 replies

Supply and demand zones and EW principles 1 reply

How Markets Work, in a Nutshell! 32 replies

Demand and Supply 1 reply

Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
Exit Attachments

Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,761
  • Dec 20, 2013 7:49pm Dec 20, 2013 7:49pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I skip all zones that have long spikes (tails and wicks), they are normally reaction to previous levels, it's one of the rules... a good base does not have longs spikes, it's NOT a level.... unless you have rules for levels with long spikes (I don't have any for now, sticking to the well structured levels, there are PLENTY of them). Hope that helps Alfonso
Please explain more detailed.
It sounds reasonable about the spikes as you explain, but the question about NFP, drew my attention to the specific spike.... it will come once a month...
So how does it fit into the set and forget concept? I guess your answer, but would be nice to know the spikes/wide zone/news effect concept..
Any conclusion for us beginners for that?
Tnx.
  • #3,762
  • Dec 20, 2013 11:42pm Dec 20, 2013 11:42pm
Quoting lobogabor
{quote} Please explain more detailed. It sounds reasonable about the spikes as you explain, but the question about NFP, drew my attention to the specific spike.... it will come once a month... So how does it fit into the set and forget concept? I guess your answer, but would be nice to know the spikes/wide zone/news effect concept.. Any conclusion for us beginners for that? Tnx.
With big impact news spikes are very common. If you've got an entry on a nice and well structured level, NFP or other news might be what that pair needs to reach your entry, but often those levels fail because of extreme volatility during the news, this is why I do not trade the news only if the level is at least a D1 SD zone with the MN direction. If there is a H4/H1 level which is not with the MN/D1 direction I will wait for the news storm to pass.

However, the well/bad structured level issue stays the same. A level composed of long spikes is not considered a level but a probably the pair is aiming to look for pools of liquidity above/below, like the case we're talking about on GBPUSD. That long tail was looking for a pool of liquidity (buyers) located down lower.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,763
  • Edited Dec 21, 2013 12:05am Dec 20, 2013 11:51pm | Edited Dec 21, 2013 12:05am
Quoting lobogabor
{quote} Hey Alfonso, any specific reason these videos were removed? I guess it is not commercial, rather trademark (or what) question? Plz let us know. Tnx
Neither for commercial nor for trademark reasons. Long story that was told a few months ago on the thread, it was one of the main reasons to switch to a private forum. YouTube removed some of my videos, even those explaining in detail my own indicators, the higher timeframe spreadsheet, etc, big boys taking actions you know. So I had to make a decision, either I went private or I stopped helping others. I decided to go for the first option so I avoid potentially bothering anyone and I have control of what I am doing.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,764
  • Dec 21, 2013 4:48am Dec 21, 2013 4:48am
Quoting kimis
...maybe there is some other material where it details how to draw zones?
Kimis,

There is a google group that is aiming to compile answers to common questions being asked on this thread. Go look at https://groups.google.com/d/forum/supply-demand-faq-alfonso.

You will need to go through a join request that I will action for you, but once you log in and get to the Home page, look for and select the topic "Zones - Curve" and you should then see the question "Marking Supply and Demand Zones". Enjoy the information we are slowly compiling on this Group.

Cheers
GregT
  • #3,765
  • Dec 21, 2013 5:25am Dec 21, 2013 5:25am
Thanks Greg

just did that moment ago, but after sending request noticed that I've been asked to fill some data about my status at forex and so on...
  • #3,766
  • Dec 21, 2013 7:15am Dec 21, 2013 7:15am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Neither for commercial nor for trademark reasons. Long story that was told a few months ago on the thread, it was one of the main reasons to switch to a private forum. YouTube removed some of my videos, even those explaining in detail my own indicators, the higher timeframe spreadsheet, etc, big boys taking actions you know. So I had to make a decision, either I went private or I stopped helping others. I decided to go for the first option so I avoid potentially bothering anyone and I have control of what I am doing. Alfonso
Now, this is really funny ....... "Big boys taking action" on You Tube.
  • #3,767
  • Dec 22, 2013 10:53am Dec 22, 2013 10:53am
Quoting michal9
Shall we cancel all our pending limit orders before the big news? (such as tommorrow's FED decision) In the post #1 Alfonso says do not trade news and slow markets, so I guess the answer is YES ;-) but wanted to check to be sure... I have a couple nice & promising orders waiting... and point is that news event could exactly be the trigger for the price to go to fill my limit orders... but of course they can also go to my stop loss directly from there, I know. (I am still demo trading Supply & Demand, so I care less and, in spite of that, or becasue...
I've got stuck on that news issue,
watching a lot of charts and setting all with pending orders and cancel all those all before news can a burden for most if you don't like to cancel orders like me and it takes you a lot of time to set every trades,
I've got a creative solution for that issue where you might be able to dismiss all that work around the chart with creating/cancelling orders before news

there are those indicators that give you the option to add alerts for horizontal lines within a range like Alerter4U
you could set it to send you email alert into your mail box if price is in range of whatever you desire from a horizontal line that will probably give you enough time to reach the computer set limit orders if there is no news by that time,
it's not purely set&forget but hey, it spare lots of unwanted work with the news.

(I Prefer use horizontal line since I'd have to delete the rectangle because it'll keep alerting every certain period of the time frame and I prefer delete the horizontal line)
  • #3,768
  • Dec 23, 2013 2:24am Dec 23, 2013 2:24am
Quoting Irad
{quote} I've got stuck on that news issue, watching a lot of charts and setting all with pending orders and cancel all those all before news can a burden for most if you don't like to cancel orders like me and it takes you a lot of time to set every trades, I've got a creative solution for that issue where you might be able to dismiss all that work around the chart with creating/cancelling orders before news there are those indicators that give you the option to add alerts for horizontal lines within a range like Alerter4U you could set it to send...
Cancelling or not cancelling orders is up to you and anybody Irad, isn't a bigger burden to you to lose a bunch of consecutive trades due to news?

But well, there are different ways to trading, each of you have to do what you consider the best. The most important thing for me is preserving my capital, if the actions I take support my capital then why should it be a burden to me? The opposite will

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,769
  • Dec 23, 2013 8:50am Dec 23, 2013 8:50am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Cancelling or not cancelling orders is up to you and anybody Irad, isn't a bigger burden to you to lose a bunch of consecutive trades due to news? But well, there are different ways to trading, each of you have to do what you consider the best. The most important thing for me is preserving my capital, if the actions I take support my capital then why should it be a burden to me? The opposite will Alfonso
Hi,
you probably didn't understood my comment here,
I don't like to trade those interest rate, NFP, FOMC, CPI and those other market news noise,
but because of following more than 30 pairs deleting all pending order without the option to restore those within a click of a button can be a burden,
So I get mail alert once the price reaching 25 pips from my area so I can have time to set&forget.

It's just a way in order to avoid doing the pending order cancellation and then after news start to go over 30 pairs and re-set those pending orders with targets/SL.
it's the same as you described in the thread instead of targets/stoploss, just set horizontal line alert to set targets and stoploss and limit order entry.

Hope you got my point there,
  • #3,770
  • Dec 24, 2013 1:50am Dec 24, 2013 1:50am
Quoting Irad
{quote} Hi, you probably didn't understood my comment here, I don't like to trade those interest rate, NFP, FOMC, CPI and those other market news noise, but because of following more than 30 pairs deleting all pending order without the option to restore those within a click of a button can be a burden, So I get mail alert once the price reaching 25 pips from my area so I can have time to set&forget. It's just a way in order to avoid doing the pending order cancellation and then after news start to go over 30 pairs and re-set those pending orders...
Yes Irad, I had intiially grasped your idea, I was just talking about that the actions taken have the aim to preserve your capital. But I do see your point. I do have that covered on my side with the applications I built for my personal use, there are no limit orders on my charts, they are all virtual orders that will be become market execution orders if certain conditions apply. So by pressing on the EA button all my orders will be paused in a millisecond, and they will be back as fast. But I got your alert idea, sounds good.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,771
  • Dec 24, 2013 10:21am Dec 24, 2013 10:21am
Hi Alfonso,
I went over your webinar @ http://www.set-and-forget.com/benefits


As far as I understood you determine a level once they broke previous valid supply/demand areas, them seems logical, wait for price to break opposed area in order to qualify it as valid area.

but then I watched your analysis on the GBPUSD Monthly S&D curve, you picked original supply level that haven't been taken out demand yet so according to your rules you can't qualify that area as supply yet.

and it's seems that you ignored the rule for breaking area to qualify as a valid area.
why did you make that an exception for that pair? why don't you look for previous demand to being absorbed first?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdf-mn1-hf-markets-ltd.png Size: 65 KB
  • #3,772
  • Dec 25, 2013 10:27pm Dec 25, 2013 10:27pm
Quoting GregT
{quote} Kimis, There is a google group that is aiming to compile answers to common questions being asked on this thread. Go look at https://groups.google.com/d/forum/su...nd-faq-alfonso. You will need to go through a join request that I will action for you, but once you log in and get to the Home page, look for and select the topic "Zones - Curve" and you should then see the question "Marking Supply and Demand Zones". Enjoy the information we are slowly compiling on this Group. Cheers GregT
Thanks Greg.

Will send a request to join group. Many thanks for helping newbies out.
  • #3,773
  • Dec 26, 2013 4:28am Dec 26, 2013 4:28am
Quoting Irad
Hi Alfonso, I went over your webinar @ http://www.set-and-forget.com/benefits As far as I understood you determine a level once they broke previous valid supply/demand areas, them seems logical, wait for price to break opposed area in order to qualify it as valid area. but then I watched your analysis on the GBPUSD Monthly S&D curve, you picked original supply level that haven't been taken out demand yet so according to your rules you can't qualify that area as supply yet. and it's seems that you...
Just got my answer from the Q/A section of that google page posted here
I guess this what make trading activity so subjective in many ways.

Quote
Alfonso
https://groups.google.com/forum/clear.cache.gif
This is a complex question. Price needs to remove opposing SD level to validate previous one, but sometimes it does not need to:
1) At fresh and original HTF zone
2) When there is no opposing SD zone to remove with long ERC candles on the left
It all boils down to screentime and analyzing each scenario because some of them can be tricky. As a rule of thumb, yes, a zone needs to remove opposing SD zone... but there are exceptions like anything in this life It all requires lots of testings and screentime, this is why I posted a forex tester video, testing for hundreds of hours is required in order to gain consistency trading SD or ANY other strategy. Take your time!
Alfonso
  • #3,774
  • Edited 9:04am Dec 26, 2013 6:07am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting Irad
{quote} Just got my answer from the Q/A section of that google page posted here I guess this what make trading activity so subjective in many ways. {quote}
That's great Irad... Anything in life can be subjective, trading is not an exception But there are rules for that scenario you described on the GBPUSD.

This is why I keep on emphasizing you all NEED to backtest FOR MONTHS hours a day by using Forex Tester or similar software, why? It's the only way to prove yourself that any trading strategy can work for you, gain confidence in the setups and see the rules in action as well as adding your own nuances to the rules. There is NO other way unless you have a few years of free time and all bills covered, there is just no other way.

Don't believe what I say or do, just do it yourself. Rules can work well for me, but not for you or others, because rules can be applied in different ways depending on your emotional status.

Have a merry xmas!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,775
  • Dec 26, 2013 7:23am Dec 26, 2013 7:23am
Could this be a good supply level?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 118 KB
  • #3,776
  • Edited 9:03am Dec 26, 2013 8:31am | Edited 9:03am
Quoting raulbeni
Could this be a good supply level? {image}
Could is not the word, it is a weekly supply level However a WK CP supply agains the WK uptrend and the MN uptrend, and Yen very weak on all cross pairs. Not taking counter-trend on a CP supply against the trend, not high probability.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,777
  • Dec 26, 2013 9:34am Dec 26, 2013 9:34am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Could is not the word, it is a weekly supply level However a WK CP supply agains the WK uptrend and the MN uptrend, and Yen very weak on all cross pairs. Not taking counter-trend on a CP supply against the trend, not high probability. Alfonso
Gracias

Estoy empezando a estudiar tu metodo. Pero se me hace superpesado en inglés xDD Voy muy poco a poco.
  • #3,778
  • Edited 5:10pm Dec 26, 2013 4:59pm | Edited 5:10pm
Quoting revival_fx
{quote} Lobogabor, above is the metatrader version (ex4 only) of the indi. It originally comes from the forex trading coaches. still no dll to be found.
Hi, I do not understand the comment, also I have no clue what a dll is good for. What I found and am using is a free code with source available in mq4 format (ie. source code), not just an ex4 (executable or any dll required...even more, I do try to avoid those!).
For supdem I am simply preferring to use the multi-TF capable
"II_SupDem v2.mq4" or there is an other one out there, I use sometimes
"SS_SupportResistance_v04c.mq4"
Of course could misundersrstood your comment, I dunno.
Let me know if I can be more of a help.
Tnx.
  • #3,779
  • Dec 27, 2013 1:40am Dec 27, 2013 1:40am
Quoting raulbeni
{quote} Gracias Estoy empezando a estudiar tu metodo. Pero se me hace superpesado en inglés xDD Voy muy poco a poco.
Bienvenido Raúl Poquito a poco se llega a donde sea
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,780
  • Dec 27, 2013 7:42am Dec 27, 2013 7:42am
Hi,
I wanted to share AJ setup I am looking at right now
Weekly: Consolidation(who is in control? I barely can say...)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpyfweekly.png Size: 75 KB

Daily: departure from daily demand, now we are approaching fresh daily supply
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpyfdaily.png Size: 72 KB

4H: inside the daily demand fresh(some will say also original) supply area(RBD) - set&forget(I'll go set&remember style)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpyfh4.png Size: 81 KB
3 traders viewing now