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  • #281
  • Dec 22, 2013 4:47pm Dec 22, 2013 4:47pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Sorry dude, weeks ago I had you confused with someone else, similar name who's a scammer, very sorry!!
No worries. I was told awhile back that FF was rife with scammers. At first I did not see how that could be, but now I understand that FF has a lot of people from "emerging economies". For whatever reason they do not think to ask why someone would be selling a successful trading system?


So I do understand that one has to be extra careful around here. I see you have been at this for awhile. In fact seem to be a few here who are definitely on the trail.

As far as the topic goes, I do not think the market is random on a macro scale. I do think it is random on a micro scale because we retailers cannot call up a central banker or a head of state to get the real deal, so we have to watch price. MM are constantly playing games with price, so the only thing we can do is follow along at a distance ( small lot sizes) and let the trend emerge. I believe that if you go both long and short in a framework that is consistent, at the end a quarter you will have positions consistent with the trend. Allow you percent gain exponential growth, but keep your percent loss static. There are a lot of ways to get this done.

Regards
Joe
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #282
  • Dec 22, 2013 5:00pm Dec 22, 2013 5:00pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} No worries. I was told awhile back that FF was rife with scammers. At first I did not see how that could be, but now I understand that FF has a lot of people from "emerging economies". For whatever reason they do not think to ask why someone would be selling a successful trading system? So I do understand that one has to be extra careful around here. I see you have been at this for awhile. In fact seem to be a few here who are definitely on the trail. As far as the topic goes, I do not think the market is random on a macro scale. I do think...

Thanks, over working the math and work so I blame a lack of sleep and too damn much stress!!

Lets hope I'm on the right track, soo much work on next 3 - 4 months lets hope I get time to use it before I forget and have to start again LOL

My M1 entries are 0 - 10pips away from the top/bottom generally, exits similar, obviously I can't predict the exact turning point or ever will be able to, but I'm not inclined to write this off as randomness you just can't see orders, so I'm 100% sure the market is not random, far far from it.

Many times in the past years, I've looked at the charts and seen no way to profit from it as it seemed random and nearly quiting, so the people who are seeing it as random need to find a better way to view it that's all.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #283
  • Dec 22, 2013 5:01pm Dec 22, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting Vachus
Well the theory should hold, predicting the last minute of a movie - should be easier then trying to plot the entire movie ...
As far as summaries go...

This really is my method of trading.

I often considered it following somebody elses footprints in the snow or path through the forest...

But really, when you know the probable outcome...you're not really following as much as stamping your own feet in the snow to the journeys end. My journeys just happen to be a lot shorter than what most look for.

Really, as far as cliché trading is concerned...

A bird in the hand, is worth 2 in the bush.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #284
  • Dec 22, 2013 5:11pm Dec 22, 2013 5:11pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} As far as summaries go... This really is my method of trading. I often considered it following somebody elses footprints in the snow or path through the forest... But really, when you know the probable outcome...you're not really following as much as stamping your own feet in the snow to the journeys end. My journeys just happen to be a lot shorter than what most look for. Really, as far as cliché trading is concerned... A bird in the hand, is worth 2 in the bush.

I'd be trying to hitch a ride on those down moves, so short the pull backs in the down trend they line up well with my 21sma 0.07% envelope generally!!

I don't like making similar or less than I'd lose, so if i get on a good bit of trend I can actually hold for a few hours.

1 week is my longest trade, okay I set a Limit order forgot it, it filled then when I traded next I was showing a interesting profit on my tablet software. nice little bonus ( my Limits all have SL's )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #285
  • Dec 22, 2013 5:18pm Dec 22, 2013 5:18pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I'd be trying to hitch a ride on those down moves, so short the pull backs in the down trend they line up well with my 21sma 0.07% envelope generally!! I don't like making similar or less than I'd lose, so if i get on a good bit of trend I can actually hold for a few hours. 1 week is my longest trade, okay I set a Limit order forgot it, it filled then when I traded next I was showing a interesting profit on my tablet software. nice little bonus ( my Limits all have SL's )

Understanding if we are pulling back or reversing is typically where people go wrong. How you measure this, is completely by whatever visual representation that makes the most sense to you. Be it, MAs, MACD, Stochs, Trendlines or the color of your chart and candles...

As Vachus has pointed out several times during the EURUSD continuation of long trend...

Can't remember his exact words, but I peed a little when I read them.

Was along the lines of, "Everytime EURUSD pulls back 20-50 pips, the bullish USD Muppets yell, CHARGE!"

One of the most coined phrases yet seemingly least followed rules of trading..."Stick With the Trend".

I been there, I get it...there are a lot of things that impact our own performance...much is the reason why I don't question other people in their methods, but have them affirm their positions based on a consistent logic.

If you have a sense of direction, you can appreciate that even if you don't nut every entry, you can still prosper from your position.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #286
  • Dec 22, 2013 5:25pm Dec 22, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Understanding if we are pulling back or reversing is typically where people go wrong. How you measure this, is completely by whatever visual representation that makes the most sense to you. Be it, MAs, MACD, Stochs, Trendlines or the color of your chart and candles... As Vachus has pointed out several times during the EURUSD continuation of long trend... Can't remember his exact words, but I peed a little when I read them. Was along the lines of, "Everytime EURUSD pulls back 20-50 pips, the bullish USD Muppets yell, CHARGE!" One of the most...

Envelopes then judging momentum as it nears the Envelope, sometimes it turns early to early, prefer a few bars where it stalls personally but seldom get that.

With the direction the pull back rarely takes out the Envelope line on the pull back, but the trend move back up generally takes out this line 2x's if not 3x's, so trying to short counter trend is well suicide.

For years I could never trade the pull back as I feared it would keep falling and would always try to pick a point to reverse the trend, despite knowing it's illogical, just couldn't break the habit until recently FINALLY!! Still need a few 100nd trades to get it fully automated.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #287
  • Dec 22, 2013 5:32pm Dec 22, 2013 5:32pm
Quoting Magix
..much is the reason why I don't question other people in their methods, but have them affirm their positions based on a consistent logic. If you have a sense of direction, you can appreciate that even if you don't nut every entry, you can still prosper from your position.
It make sense on every level of these people daily lives, but when it comes to trading - oops , i don't want to be a follower, sorry ...

They want to a counter a trade without a reverse confirmation , then this counter grows up to be a trend in itself. Then a grand move in sentiment to carry a fundamental move , so the price can plunge 500 pips. All of that, without his/her pathetic stoplose not being taken out. You've got to be kidding me.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #288
  • Dec 22, 2013 8:38pm Dec 22, 2013 8:38pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Thanks, over working the math and work so I blame a lack of sleep and too damn much stress!! Lets hope I'm on the right track, soo much work on next 3 - 4 months lets hope I get time to use it before I forget and have to start again LOL My M1 entries are 0 - 10pips away from the top/bottom generally, exits similar, obviously I can't predict the exact turning point or ever will be able to, but I'm not inclined to write this off as randomness you just can't see orders, so I'm 100% sure the market is not random, far far from it. Many times...
I am hopeful that you stress does not come from trading. One only needs to follow the trend. I can say that all I look at is what price is doing today against yesterday and last week. I am a buyer or a seller based on that. I do not change my bias during the day. When I say the market is random to retailers is that I have no clue what is going to happen after I put my orders, nor do I care, I am looking how the month is going to shape up.

Your template is pretty darn good if you are going to daytrade tho, I have to say that.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #289
  • Dec 23, 2013 4:57am Dec 23, 2013 4:57am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I am hopeful that you stress does not come from trading. One only needs to follow the trend. I can say that all I look at is what price is doing today against yesterday and last week. I am a buyer or a seller based on that. I do not change my bias during the day. When I say the market is random to retailers is that I have no clue what is going to happen after I put my orders, nor do I care, I am looking how the month is going to shape up. Your template is pretty darn good if you are going to daytrade tho, I have to say that.
Loads of sources,woman, business so clients, woman, kids although not mine, woman, cash flow, and ohhh yeah woman.

Must take a year out from woman focus on trading.

My method works so far, as easy as 2 high probability ranges who'd thought it, wasted years looking for complicated methods lol

I used to position trade with stocks, loads easier, they get dragged around a bit by the market, but they don't get news 5 times per day and change there minds. Sadly useless margin and need 25k+ in the account or stupid rules,if it wasnt for those sec rules back in 1999 ish, I very likely be rich already
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #290
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:05am Dec 23, 2013 7:05am
I see a problem here where you guys have disregarded evidence that my self, pipme up and prixmus (sorry i might not have the name correct) have previously shown.

you have all asserted that the market indeed is predictable and there are trends, have accepted the assumption and now are talking about how you exploit this. If trends indeed do exists the returns would show autocorrelation which they do not, the returns show randomness you cannot ignore this, and go by your visual interpretation when clearly mathematically randomness is present not trends.

as I have said before from the previous empirical examples the most we can say is that the market can be best represented by price*e^(volatility+drift*(random)) so the underlying macro economic factors and market sentiment can I supose get you to an estimation on drift or tendency but the random element can still generate a chart were drift is positive and the price creates a bearish pattern. My understanding is that professional money managers diversify their holding to reduce this risk, even when being positively exposed to a certain assumed drift, where they attempt to catch the highest yield in the process, while working towards a horizon of 3 months or so my source is the ex goldman trader from one million dollar traders whose lectures can be seen on youtube at the institute of trading chanel.

you guys have all patted yourselves in the back while not provided any empirical evidence so far, perhaps you can prove me wrong
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #291
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:10am Dec 23, 2013 7:10am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I didnt say that it will always work, as human nature is unpredictable, but the CB does everyting in their power to reach their goals.If they fail thats because the market has other plans for itself.

can you generate several random charts with positive drift? and compare them to bullish market? perhaps if you can also write all your open high low close data I can compare it and run some tests on it to see if indeed it represents the market well.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #292
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:18am Dec 23, 2013 7:18am
Quoting the redlion
I see a problem here where you guys have disregarded evidence that my self, pipme up and prixmus (sorry i might not have the name correct) have previously shown. you have all asserted that the market indeed is predictable and there are trends, have accepted the assumption and now are talking about how you exploit this. If trends indeed do exists the returns would show autocorrelation which they do not, the returns show randomness you cannot ignore this, and go by your visual interpretation when clearly mathematically randomness is present not trends....
I agree with you 100%, thats my theory aswell.

Quoting the redlion
{quote} can you generate several random charts with positive drift? and compare them to bullish market? perhaps if you can also write all your open high low close data I can compare it and run some tests on it to see if indeed it represents the market well.
I could, just by taking a true random 0,1 sequence representing the uptick and the downtick and the distance between each tick will be a 3rd random number, where i can add a threshold value to represent volatility increase which would resemble very well a trending market.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #293
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:18am Dec 23, 2013 7:18am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} May I ask you to try with these three charts please? {image}{image}{image}
I apologize I had the traders confused, can you generate several random charts with positive drift and provide open,high,low, close data so i can run some tests on the returns and see if indeed they are a correct representation of the market?
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #294
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:19am Dec 23, 2013 7:19am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I agree with you 100%, thats my theory aswell. {quote} I could, just by taking a true random 0,1 sequence representing the uptick and the downtick and the distance between each tick will be a 3rd random number, where i can add a threshold value to represent volatility increase which would resemble very well a market.
great, then i will run some statistical test on the returns and compare with real market data

I'm going to need open,high,low,close values though so we can visually compare it and empirically compare the returns
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #295
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:28am Dec 23, 2013 7:28am
Someone here is confusing the term " Predictability " with " certainty ".
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #296
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:36am Dec 23, 2013 7:36am
Quoting Vachus
Someone here is confusing the term " Predictability " with " certainty ".

I am not sure this is directed at me or some one else...I am not directly adressed in your post however I have a feeling you are talking about me

to predict is to forecast, to foretell, to extrapolate an outcome in various degrees of certainty. To do this you need to have some basic assumptions and so far the number one assumption that needs to be present is that the data is not random. We havent gotten past this yet, some of us have provided evidence that
points to randomness while other have asserted predictability ....assertion is not evidence.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #297
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:41am Dec 23, 2013 7:41am
Taken in isolation, the candles / bars appear to be random, which is fine I have no issues with that at all, but that is all that's been proven here.

Looking at Random charts and trying to trade them might be entirely different aswell.



Momentum is real, momentum isn't random and we can point to 1000's of examples, which means there not just coincidental.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #298
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:48am Dec 23, 2013 7:48am
If the market is RANDOM, then how could GA just pretty accurately downtrend on the M1 120sma line with such accuracy ??

What are the odds on producing a random EJ chart with the same pattern at the same time ?? cause EJ just did the same thing.

Longer TF's do appear more random, why I stay away from them.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: How Many random charts to produce this.jpg Size: 195 KB
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #299
  • Dec 23, 2013 8:03am Dec 23, 2013 8:03am
Quoting the redlion
To do this you need to have some basic assumptions and so far the number one assumption that needs to be present is that the data is not random.
You are seriously are in the wrong field or confusing terminology. Though, your posts are screaming " certainty " while keep at the degree of prediction and how accurate they are. You can calculate the rate of return if the incoming data will be static in a nature " interest rate over a CD , VAT or income tax " Because the only variable here would be: The bank interest benchmark , government regulation ..etc. But once extra variable are factored in , you can't simply disregard it. The reason any mathematical model fails at predicting price behavior is because they only look only to price, not what this is price is made of. Then, when they get the variables correct - they ignore upgrading them ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #300
  • Dec 23, 2013 8:06am Dec 23, 2013 8:06am
Quoting the redlion
I see a problem here where you guys have disregarded evidence that my self, pipme up and prixmus (sorry i might not have the name correct) have previously shown. you have all asserted that the market indeed is predictable and there are trends, have accepted the assumption and now are talking about how you exploit this. If trends indeed do exists the returns would show autocorrelation which they do not, the returns show randomness you cannot ignore this, and go by your visual interpretation when clearly mathematically randomness is present not trends....
I saw those interviews on youtube also. They are very good. I doubt that short term traders can prove that the market is non-random. I think some math geek from MIT would have done that by now. I would further argue that if the market was non-random on a short term basis, the market would cease to exist as well understand it because there would be no counter party to our trades. Nothing scientific about that assertion. Just seems logical that no bank would step in front of a known moving train.

Edit: This does not mean that short term traders should not trade, or that they are foolish, it just means that they cannot mathematically prove that the market is non-random.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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