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GBPAUD 60

Subscribers have been following and trading this chart for several days, and recently could have taken advantage of the telegraphed double tap on the outer quartile followed by +400 points in two days.



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GBPAUD 60

The trade shown above is now +600 points in just over two days ........


Here's a link to this week's webinar introducing the Cross Pair service and looking at a number of charts:
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7340


Have a good weekend.


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GBPJPY 60


This is another 60 minute chart that subscribers to the Cross Pairs Analysis Service have been following for a few days.

A long at the Lower Parallel at 158.05 on 13th November only needed a minimal stop below prior lows and could have been closed at the Upper Parallel at 165.29.

Median Line Analysis using pitchforks is a methodology that allows us to predict areas or lines of support and resistance with extreme accuracy.


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EURAUD 240

This is a chart that subscribers to the Cross Pair Service have been following for some days. Note that, despite the very strong moves in this vehicle, that resistance was encountered at the Median Line (red circle) and price has retraced somewhat.

Median Line Analysis using pitchforks is a methodology that allows us to predict areas or lines of support and resistance with extreme accuracy.

A Very Happy Thanksgiving to all ........



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GBPAUD 240

Note how the Upper Parallel of this unmodified Schiff originating from the March low has exactly caught the high of the strong move (at least for now...)
The second chart is detail of the first.




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GBPNZD 240

Here's a little "extra" for the weekend. We have been following the blue fork since price started moving up out of the red fork. A long taken on 19th November at the Sliding Parallel in the green circle would have given over 1000 points to the high in the red circle....... Currently watching to see if support is to be found at the Median Line (prior resistance) after a pullback from the highs.

If you want to find out more about the Cross Pair Service, this webinar from last week may be of interest:
http://www.coghlancapital.com/node/7340



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GBPNZD 240

I am continuing to follow this pair after the 1000+ point move from arrow to arrow. Am currently watching to see if the tested line of resistance (shown by the red circles) is maintained or whether the untested higher lows (shown by the green circles) propel price higher towards prior resistance at the quartile.

edit - price moving lower making the red circled line of resistance the level to match or beat for the bullish move to continue. One other possible area of support to watch for is the lower quartile - a quartile to quartile move is not unknown.....



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GBPNZD 240

I am continuing to follow this pair after the 1000+ point move from arrow to arrow.

As structure develops we look to see if trend is strengthening or weakening in the fork. We have a constant line of resistance as shown by the red circles and potentially a rising floor - from beneath the Lower Parallel to the Sliding Parallel shown in the green circles.

Looking at the second, more detailed, chart I note that the very last bars' highs did not quite reach the Sliding Parallel resistance - their highs were the Median Line - which could foretell of some relative weakness to come - I will watch the green circled SP for continued support.



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GBPNZD 240

I continue to watch this pair retrace after it's strong 1000 point move.....

As previously noted, resistance has lowered in the fork from the red circled Sliding Parallel. The last red circle (and the bars before it) show that price found resistance at the Median Line and was not able to reach as high in the fork as the Sliding Parallel. As this ceiling lowers, we look to see if the floor does too and we are currently monitoring price at prior Sliding Parallel support.

The green circles show the raising of support as the move to the upside progressed - I am watching the third circle to see if this floor is indeed continuing to rise or whether the lowering of resistance we have noted above will instead cause such support to breach.

Subscribers to the Cross Pair Analysis service have been shown a chart this morning on a smaller timeframe which should signal which event is occurring.

Have a good weekend.....



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GBPNZD 240

Following on from above we see that price did indeed fall from the red circled Sliding Parallel as suggested. In posts 108 and 109 I mentioned that the fact that price was not reaching as high as the resistance of this Sliding Parallel could indicate future weakness.

When price fell on Friday it found support at the green circled Sliding Parallel - Median Line Analysis allows us to predict potential supports and resistances with great accuracy. When the market reopens I will watch this line for evidence of continued support - if it fails I will look to the Lower Parallel and even to the Sliding Parallel beneath it.



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EURCAD 240 min


The benefits of an uncluttered and clean chart are obvious. Every so often I completely clear my charts and start from scratch to see what I can find.

On doing this recently to the EURCAD 240 min, I very soon noticed the path of price in Chart 1 from bottom left to top right and also the three low-high-low points circled in red.

We are “pattern seeking mammals” and by joining the three points with a pitchfork, as shown in Chart 2, I was able to properly delineate the path of price. By adding these lines the whole nature of the move becomes much clearer and allows us to follow the strengthening and weakening of the trend within the fork.

Initial validation of this path of price came from the sequence of touches on the handle of the pitchfork near the A. This very quickly showed that the line of the fork was indeed in harmony with how price was moving. Further validation came with the series of bars of resistance at the Lower Quartile and then by the exact touch of and V-shaped rejection from the Lower Parallel. The more exact the touch and the stronger the rejection, the more we are likely to consider the fork to be properly validated.

Another thing to notice is how the Sliding Parallel that once was resistance (red circles) has since become support (green circles). This was a clear sign that price was likely to move higher in the fork. Note also how price was finding resistance at the Median Line and how this too has now become support. These lines allow us to look to trade long (following the direction of the fork) and to do so with considerable certainty given the prior action along the line. The gradient of the fork allows us to place stops, reasonably tightly, beneath prior lows.



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EURCAD 240 min

Following on from above, having found the all important path of price and delineated it with the pitchfork I have been asked how we would trade it. Subscribers to the Cross Pair Analysis service receive daily videos highlighting such opportunities.

The Sliding Parallel that was resistance (red circles) and that then became support (green circles) was pointed out. This bullish set-up would have allowed a long trade to be taken in a number of places eg at the low of the last bar in the third green circle at 1.4381 with a stop as close as ten ticks. This could have been ridden all the way to the blue circled Sliding Parallel where the second circle is at 1.4640. The trade therefore would have been closed at confirmed prior resistance.

By using established lines of support and resistance, Median Line Analysis allows us to trade using small stops with great confidence. The volatility in the non US Dollar pairs gives particular scope for large moves.

To find out more please visit:
https://www.coghlancapital.com/cross...harts-analysis



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AUDNZD 240 min


Another pair that the Cross Pair Analysis service has been following, and which shows the benefit of finding and tracking the path of price, is the AUDNZD 240. This fork is working extremely well and the series of declining highs along the red Sliding Parallels would provide numerous short entries.

In particular, the "double taps" on these lines allowed shorts to be taken with tight stops and in the expectation of significant downside moves. As an example of this, the move from the second red circle at 1.1491 was from a two-bar double top and the current low is 1.0808. It is worth clicking on the chart to see in close-up how precise the touches are......

We are currently watching to see if structure (and evidence of support) forms at the Lower Quartile - if it does, and price starts to move up we will look at whether the next Sliding Parallel above, that was prior support, now becomes resistance.




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Posted to my friend XTrade's Gold/Silver thread (the best thread on pm's on FF):

GC 240 min

Hey XTrade

Hope you’re well – you seem to have plenty of new people on your thread with a whole load of complicated systems and unreasoned scalps lol….

As promised here is one of the forks that I’m watching – you know that simple works best for me.

Its GC 240 min and look how well the path of price is defined by the fork. Plenty of action along the Median Line as shown in the blue circles and along the Quartile in the green circles. These constant touches along set lines of support and resistance validate the fork for me.

Look at the arrows at the Upper Parallel which provided a perfect short opportunity – short at the second arrow at 1263, stop above the first arrow at 1268 and cashed in at the Quartile at 1223…..

What I am watching now (in consort with other timeframes) is whether price finds support at that Quartile that was the previous line of resistance. Resistance becoming support along the angle of the fork (as is the case on the horizontal) is bullish – even on a downfork.......

Hope this helps – take care and check in on my thread in the Commercial Section anytime

Ben (beeb)

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GC 240 min

Following on from above this is the same fork in more detail. You can see the line of support along the Median Line and also the very safe short entry at the Upper Parallel.

Price is currently in a narrowing channel - whereas before it was running between the Median Line and Quartile , support has stepped up to the Quartile (green circle) and resistance has lowered to the dotted Sliding Parallel. A stepping up of support, particularly where the Quartile that was resistance becomes support, is definitely bullish. On the other hand a lowering of resistance from the Upper Parallel to the Sliding Parallel is bearish. We will continue to watch the path of price in this narrowing channel (in conjunction with other timeframes) to determine whether trend is strengthening or weakening.

To find out more about the methodology please visit:
https://www.coghlancapital.com/cross...harts-analysis


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GC 240 min

I wanted to post a quick follow up to the previous post as I am travelling tomorrow and will not be able to do so then.....

Support has indeed stepped up in the fork from the Median Line to the Quartile (green circle) and price has once again pushed up to find exact resistance along the Upper Parallel (red arrows). As price falls back from anticipated resistance we look to see where support steps in - if it was to be found along the line of the Sliding Parallel originating from the high in the blue circle, you would once more have a line of prior resistance becoming support and that would again be considered bullish.

If price fell through the Sliding Parallel, I would look for support along the line of the Quartile -this would still be bullish as the channel in which price was running would be from the Quartile (support) to the Upper Parallel (resistance) whereas previously it had been running between the Median Line and the Quartile. Price would effectively be stepping up in the line of the fork.

Subscribers are privy to different forks on this and other timeframes that could lead to considered and safe long trades as well as the obvious short trades apparent in this pitchfork....



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GC 240 min

A quick update on the GC 240 sees the Upper Parallel resistance still holding. The reaction from the last touch at 1252 took price down to 1226.

This close up allows us to see how support is continuing to step up in the red pitchfork. Prior lines of resistance are becoming support - effectively the floor of support is rising along the angle of the fork.

The second chart shows an upfork that I'm following to gauge the trend to the upside - am showing it separately as both on the same chart might be a bit confusing....

Please be aware that with FOMC due tomorrow, we could see some increased volatility in GC....



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GC 240 min


A simple chart is sometimes best - so here is the same fork I have been showing for a few days defining the path of price..... no need for MACD, RSI, CCI, Stochs, Bollies etc etc.....

Anybody following this could have taken at least a couple of easy trades as shown by the circles - Green circles short from 1263 to 1223 and Red circles short from 1252 to 1208 or lower.....


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GC 240 min

In the last post I looked at how Median Line Analysis allowed us to very precisely follow the all-important path of price of Gold Futures at a time of extreme nervousness ahead of FOMC. By making good use of a proven line of resistance – the Upper Parallel – I showed how a short trade could have been taken with very little risk.

In Chart 1, by placing a stop above the first red arrow at 1268 a short could have been taken at the second red arrow at 1263. Support was anticipated in the blue circle along the line of the dashed Quartile (where there had previously been resistance) and the trade could have been closed at 1220 for a sizeable profit.

I commented that resistance becoming support was bullish, but rather than make predictions about future price I am always intent on following what the charts have to say. As a trader I do not get “married” to a view and I will change my mind in an instant if the charts warrant it.

On this occasion price rose from support in the blue circle to the Upper Parallel once more. I was watching intently what happened as price could either reject again giving a further shorting opportunity, or it could have breached to the upside indicating a change of behaviour. Please remember that other timeframes can assist in coming to a determination of whether or not to take a trade….

If you look at the detail in Chart 2 you see that we have two 240 minute bars touching the line at the first blue arrow with a high of 1252. Aggressive traders could have taken a short here with a stop above that high but to me price had not yet shown whether it would reject or breach the line. Price did indeed reject with the second bar having a high of 1252 and a low of 1239 plus a close at the very bottom of the bar.

This would be enough to tell me that the Upper Parallel was still resistance so when price approached it again I would be ready to short it once more. However if you look closely at what happened, price at the second blue arrow did not quite reach the Upper Parallel – it turned $2 beneath the anticipated level. So on a third approach at the third blue arrow I would expect similar, slightly lowered resistance. Price turned $1.50 from the red Upper Parallel so a trade could have been taken and filled the same$2 inside it at 1243 with a stop above prior high of 1248.

Price duly fell away from the anticipated resistance and we would have expected to close the trade once more at the Quartile (anticipated support) in the area of the green circle at about 1208. But on this occasion price fell strongly through the Quartile, so many traders would have kept the short open in expectation of a further move to the downside. Price has so far touched a low of 1186 - $57 lower than our extremely safe entry…. We now look to see if on a return to the Quartile it now provides resistance (which would be bearish) or if prices pushes through it to the upside and it becomes support once more (which would be bullish).

I hope that I have shown that Median Line Analysis utilising pitchforks is a methodology which not only allows supports and resistances to be accurately identified, but is one which allows safe trades to be taken even through the volatility of an event such as the news coming out of the FOMC.

If you would like to find out more about our analysis or services please follow the link: https://www.coghlancapital.com/signup




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Just a quick note to say that our next public webinars will be on 6th and 7th January - I will post links in due course.

Enjoy your weekend.....




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