why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 13 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

So I accepted a Prop Trading job in South Beach Miami 44 replies

Why you shouldn't show how much you have made in FX 35 replies

Incorporating Slippage Assumption in backtesting 4 replies

Market Predictability - Technical Signals 25 replies

Contesting the Accepted View of Bernanke 0 replies

Attachments: why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?
Exit Attachments

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #241
  • Dec 22, 2013 12:47am Dec 22, 2013 12:47am
Quoting Magix
{quote} How's about this one Mik... Do you see Price Predictability? As was posted HERE. Nutsuck? {image}
So, Mag, why you're so needy?

You can't get that I don't give a damn to you [except for you're funny] or what?
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #242
  • Dec 22, 2013 12:52am Dec 22, 2013 12:52am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} So, Mag, why you're so needy? You can't get that I don't give a damn to you [except for you're funny] or what?

That's what I thought Mik.

You have Nothing.

No Game.

Not a single chart, hey?

If everybody didn't know how much of a troll you were prior...I bet they all know now!

Atta go, NutSuck!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #243
  • Dec 22, 2013 12:54am Dec 22, 2013 12:54am
Hey Mik,

Here's another example...

See as was posted HERE.
Attached Images
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #244
  • Dec 22, 2013 12:56am Dec 22, 2013 12:56am
Here's an M1 Trip for ya, Nutsuck!

Supply and Demand!!

As was posted live HERE!
Attached Image
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #245
  • Dec 22, 2013 12:57am Dec 22, 2013 12:57am
Quoting Magix
{quote} That's what I thought Mik. You have Nothing. No Game. Not a single chart, hey? If everybody didn't know how much of a troll you were prior...I bet they all know now! Atta go, NutSuck!
Oh, Maggie, dear...

You didn't get it, did you?

I don't care what you think - at all. I won't post trades for you - you gotta cope with this somehow.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #246
  • Dec 22, 2013 1:03am Dec 22, 2013 1:03am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Oh, Maggie, dear... You didn't get it, do you? I don't care what you think - at all. I won't post trades for you - you gotta cope with this somehow.

Because you can't.

It's not posting for me, Ace...

You haven't even posted a chart at your mother Genesis thread. You haven't been able to post a single chart, nor trade, at any traders thread you've trolled. You haven't been able to forecast price nor movement in your time at FF.

Why do you even bother trolling a Traders Forum, Mik...it certainly isn't because you actually trade.

You have nothing.

See Price Predictability HERE. This one is the big fractal, Nutsuck! Weekly S/D zones.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wbrzone.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: upd.png Size: 35 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #247
  • Dec 22, 2013 1:06am Dec 22, 2013 1:06am
Hey Mik,

Why is price predictable? HERE.

Are you accepting it?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lohi.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: demandeu.png Size: 37 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #248
  • Dec 22, 2013 3:25am Dec 22, 2013 3:25am
In this fight, Frazier was really pissed off with Ali.

Apparently Frazier was supporting Ali during his trouble time with the law, as soon as the fight was decided between them, Ali was not very generous with his words towards Frazier. Frazier is the world champion at the time if I remember properly. Ali was stripped off of is title because of war issues, this is his first attempt back to it.

Inserted Video
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #249
  • Dec 22, 2013 4:01am Dec 22, 2013 4:01am
Quoting Magix
{quote} The market is fractal Turv. The only thing that changes between the time frames are the ranges. Spend less time feeding the trolls and trying to justify your logic and more time working it. In the end, a lot less stress and a lot more profits. Mikk is the king of nutsucks. You have hit the nail on the head with this guy, just took you a while to get there. There is no evidence that this guy actually has an account, nevermind has ever taken a trade. For somebody who demands proof but offers nothing, just goes to show you that in his 8 months...
this was sent late last night but the site was down!

He pretends to be a good guy!! But yeah, school kid most likely just trolling.

Just having a interesting discussion with Proximus, weekend tis allowed Manic week had time for 1 live trade, sucks!!

Yes on the Fractal, I can scale to M15 I just tried looks the same, allowing for the same risk % and same R:R less profit due to much mess trades even at M15, then I'm stuck baby sitting the market for the same % of profit for hours on end, prefer the I'm in, I'm out 30mins later say, then look for another setup or back to work / whatever.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #250
  • Dec 22, 2013 5:18am Dec 22, 2013 5:18am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} If you can't read or rely on Maggie that's not really my problem... Quoting Mikkk01 I've been using this system for about 8 months - half of them demo and testing
Yet you claim to have started 8months ago and fell lucky, when you'd need 5 years to get to 10,000 hours.


Busted, stop squirming and move on.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #251
  • Dec 22, 2013 7:32am Dec 22, 2013 7:32am
Gosh! what has happened in here...

Something was on my mind regarding the random generator for charts, WHY? is it so you can random generate real trades.

The market isn't random it is life based plus the unknown.

Proximus, some excellent trading posts but you never mention inside bars which are ever present in you charts but each to their own.
Turveyd some good trading posts regarding short time frames.

I have stopped trading now BUT my hobby is developing trading strategies which I then pass on.
As for price predictability assumption, you can see where price was in the past, anytime frame and then trade. (highs- lows) will always be broken or retraced (contradiction). A lot of noise which has been spoken of can be reduced/filtered by TIME
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #252
  • Dec 22, 2013 8:16am Dec 22, 2013 8:16am
Quoting billytt
Gosh! what has happened in here... Something was on my mind regarding the random generator for charts, WHY? is it so you can random generate real trades. The market isn't random it is life based plus the unknown. Proximus, some excellent trading posts but you never mention inside bars which are ever present in you charts but each to their own. Turveyd some good trading posts regarding short time frames. I have stopped trading now BUT my hobby is developing trading strategies which I then pass on. As for price predictability assumption, you can see...
Thanks, i unsubscribed from this mess, it has gone way offtopic so you just waste your time by posting here.But we need a new thread to discuss those thing propertly without these trolls destroying a good topic.I have many good ideas regarding this topic but it cant be discussed here anymore sadly...
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #253
  • Dec 22, 2013 8:45am Dec 22, 2013 8:45am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Thanks, i unsubscribed from this mess, it has gone way offtopic so you just waste your time by posting here.But we need a new thread to discuss those thing propertly without these trolls destroying a good topic.I have many good ideas regarding this topic but it cant be discussed here anymore sadly...
too true re trolls, I was subscribing to many online sites in the past mainly to collate information for a book and FF was a favourite but alas too many trolls and some of the threads were run by fraudsters who cannot trade anyway, they had more answers than a politician.
regarding the generator,, it would be good to see the results off pairs generated off each other ie g/u - u/j - g/j example

end of the day like I taught many people you trade off a line breakout/reverse and these lines can be anything from resistance/support ib-ob daily high/low etc etc or just make them up, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #254
  • Dec 22, 2013 9:24am Dec 22, 2013 9:24am
Quoting Mingary
The market must be efficient (it is not possible to win - long term) in order for it to function. You can amuse yourself trying to find anomalies (ineficiencies) but they are only temporary and a futile pursuit. Over time the set of traders / investors cannot take any money out of the market. There is only 1 inefficiency: transaction cost; that is why brokers are rich and traders are poor.

Thousands of traders make their bread and butter trading full time so it negates your post.To me its pointless arguing randomness efficiency or none efficiency.
Our goal is to only develop Edge and exploit it.
Fact is not everyone loses in markets otherwise we would not even try.
I truly fail to see value of this thread....kind of depressing.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #255
  • Dec 22, 2013 9:39am Dec 22, 2013 9:39am
To my surprise this thread has gone to sh*t, but I took care of the problem. Seems that mikkk01 is disruptive and contributes nothing to the conversation.


let's get back on track: Most agree that the market is mostly random, we have provided evidence via correlograms, Random chart generators, and academic papers on the matter however we all have also argued for the assumption that there are episodes of exploitable innefficiencies, this is why we trade.

GEFX, as well as others have pointed out that CB's manipulate the currencies to achieve stability in the country's economy. Examples of this is the BOJ stating that the yen was too strong and we saw it weaken according to their targets. We have seen the USD and other currencies ajust as a result of QE to prevent monetary contraction. However we cannot just accept assertions, is there any instances were CB's have failed to maintain their targets? what is the probability that CB's will indeed move the currency according to their publicly announced goals? this would be an interesting question.


Random Charts: nubcake was able to pick out a real chart 2/2 perhaps not significant in statistical terms but we can persue the matter further by continuing to run trials , my apriori indicates that it has to do with volatility, and was demonstrated by using a market distribution, which fit the market far better than a Normal distribution. Price is not uniform and the standard deviation changes, were volatility expands and contracts then there are reversals/ break outs. It would be very interesting to continue to persue this idea. perhaps we can further improve as traders once we can demonstrate empirically the market tendencies.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #256
  • Dec 22, 2013 9:42am Dec 22, 2013 9:42am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Thousands of traders make their bread and butter trading full time so it negates your post.To me its pointless arguing randomness efficiency or none efficiency. Our goal is to only develop Edge and exploit it. Fact is not everyone loses in markets otherwise we would not even try. I truly fail to see value of this thread....kind of depressing.

I believe that in order to even begin to find exploitable market deficiencies first we must start at this assumption of market predictability you can Assert anything you like, but the fact of the matter is that assertions hold no value, only empirical evidence. Most Human assertions, ideas, and beliefs about reality have been proven wrong.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #257
  • Dec 22, 2013 10:10am Dec 22, 2013 10:10am
Quoting the redlion
To my surprise this thread has gone to sh*t, but I took care of the problem. Seems that mikkk01 is disruptive and contributes nothing to the conversation. let's get back on track: Most agree that the market is mostly random, we have provided evidence via correlograms, Random chart generators, and academic papers on the matter however we all have also argued for the assumption that there are episodes of exploitable innefficiencies, this is why we trade. GEFX, as well as others have pointed out that CB's manipulate the currencies to achieve stability...
Subscribed back, thanks for cleaning up

So

Central Banks dont move the currencies, this is important to recognize, they only prepare the game for it to move.The main market movers are commercial traders, institutions, banks, and the people.What CB's do is they change the interest rates, which only makes a currency more appealing to invest to, so they put out the bait, and the fish will take the bait and move the market.But everything has a price, and soon the interest rates increase will not have effect on the currency anymore, but since other problems will occur, and the market gets back to equilibrium, to perfect efficciency.

For example:

  1. interest rate increase = the currency gets more appealing to investors so they invest into it or use only this currency for transactions -> the currency will get stronger in any quotation ->inflation decreases, but the interest rate increase halts down economic growth -> so slow economic growth or even negative will hurt the economy so after that the CB must lower it again,thus the market becomes efficient, and the cycle continues...
  2. interest rate decrease = the currency gets weakened since nobody wants to invest in it -> the inflation starts to rise , thus weakening the currency ever more -> economic growth increases, but importing countries cant afford that economic growth because it will destroy their currency value and with that their economy -> the CB must increase the interest rate back to normal , and the cycle repeats itself...

"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #258
  • Dec 22, 2013 10:13am Dec 22, 2013 10:13am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Subscribed back, thanks for cleaning up So Central Banks dont move the currencies, this is important to recognize, they only prepare the game for it to move.The main market movers are commercial traders, institutions, banks, and the people.What CB's do is they change the interest rates, which only makes a currency more appealing to invest to, so they put out the bait, and the fish will take the bait and move the market.But everything has a price, and soon the interest rates increase will not have effect on the currency anymore, but since...
I would argue that the 1.20 euro floor on the CHF, and the BOJ QE in order to deliberately weaken the Yen, pokes holes on your assertion.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #259
  • Dec 22, 2013 10:21am Dec 22, 2013 10:21am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Thousands of traders make their bread and butter trading full time so it negates your post.To me its pointless arguing randomness efficiency or none efficiency. Our goal is to only develop Edge and exploit it. Fact is not everyone loses in markets otherwise we would not even try. I truly fail to see value of this thread....kind of depressing.
There is no "systematic edge" that can be found.

With apologies to Leonardo de Vinci:

"Oh ye seekers of a trading edge, how many vain chimeras have you pursued? Go and take your place with the alchemists"
Leonardo da Vinci, 1494
  • #260
  • Dec 22, 2013 10:31am Dec 22, 2013 10:31am
Quoting the redlion
{quote} I believe that in order to even begin to find exploitable market deficiencies first we must start at this assumption of market predictability you can Assert anything you like, but the fact of the matter is that assertions hold no value, only empirical evidence. Most Human assertions, ideas, and beliefs about reality have been proven wrong.

you cant predict but anticipate something is about to happen/change , due to what price did in the past and what it is doing now at a certain level...

like lets say we are in a down trend (background) , u see that price moves towards a fromer support level (location) now as we trade towrads that support
the momentum/selling pressure reduces / the downside activity tappers of , and we see an exhaustion of sellers.. while in the same time we see buying activity
coming in the market , ie. sellers losing steam , while fresh new money in from of demand comes into teh market .. ie. a change in supply and demand takes place.. (price action) .. now u could anticipate that according to your plan , laid out ahead of time.. u can risk a long entry and lean on the signs of a change in behaviour

for example buy a retracement , wich made a higher low, etc... thats it .. after that you need to take responsibilty to your initail position and manage it accordingly
3 traders viewing now