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Non-farm Payroll

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 6, 2006 5:39pm Jul 6, 2006 5:39pm
Please, any recommendations on how to trade the fundamental announcements such as tomorrow's non-farm payroll????
  • #2
  • Jul 6, 2006 5:48pm Jul 6, 2006 5:48pm
Quoting fxbpr1
Please, any recommendations on how to trade the fundamental announcements such as tomorrow's non-farm payroll????
Yeah. Stay away. Sitting on the sideline is a position...
Mr. Trend
  • #3
  • Jul 6, 2006 5:50pm Jul 6, 2006 5:50pm
hahaha, very good suggestion
I concur
:
  • #4
  • Jul 6, 2006 6:02pm Jul 6, 2006 6:02pm
Take the money and bet on the world cup instead... More fun, less painful. Make sure to keep enough out for beer...


Scott
  • #5
  • Jul 6, 2006 6:12pm Jul 6, 2006 6:12pm
Yeah.....I guess you are all right.............it can be very painful
  • #6
  • Jul 6, 2006 6:27pm Jul 6, 2006 6:27pm
Actually, I love trading NFP. Call me crazy, I guess. I'd say that if you want to trade the NFP, look at every NFP move for the past year. Look at what the candles looked like going into it. Find repeating patterns that you can base a set of rules on. Then, trade it demo for a while. I've developed my own system that does pretty well on NFP day. Most people fear it because they don't have a systematic way of trading it.
  • #7
  • Jul 6, 2006 6:33pm Jul 6, 2006 6:33pm
What's so scary about it? Get the new jobs number, hourly earnings, weekly hours etc, compare to the estimates and previous numbers.. take a look at support and resistance levels, and go with the flow.. you'll have lots of time, you dont need to take a position 10 seconds after the data is released. Use a stop loss that wont drain the bank if the market can't make up its mind and once it's safe to put it to break even, do it, take the free trade and watch the pips pile up.
  • #8
  • Jul 6, 2006 7:39pm Jul 6, 2006 7:39pm
Actually, NFP is easy to trade.

5 minutes before the numbers are released, set Buy and Sell Limits at the highest high and lowest low of the last 25 minutes + 12 pips. Set a Stop of 8 pips and a PT of 80. Use proper risk management. (ya know... MAX LEVERAGE!!!!!)

Sit back and drink yer coffee. Once about 10 minutes is over, you'll either hit your target or you'll need to exit. After that, shut down your charts, close your brokerage window, and start your weekend...
Mr. Trend
  • #9
  • Jul 6, 2006 7:42pm Jul 6, 2006 7:42pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...1399#post71399i have attached a list of all this year's NFP data with revisions. i'm sure you all want to take a look at it. this is what i'm starting to do for everyone as i have yet to see anyone come out with reall revision data to look at. i just figured if no one else was going to do it i would.

jeff swanson

PS does anyone know a good programmer? i need to write some API's and i have been asking for over a month. i want to interface excel with my brokers. i don't care which brokers or if someone wants to do cold fusion and have the program push buttons on the screen. as long as it's automated.
  • #10
  • Jul 6, 2006 7:48pm Jul 6, 2006 7:48pm
The revised estimates are for 200k (the FF calendar still says 175k) so a number will need to be above 225k for a long dollar / below 175k for a short dollar. Inside that range, leave it alone. You'll get more bang for your buck on the short side given the pervasive "pause in august" theme.
  • #11
  • Jul 6, 2006 9:52pm Jul 6, 2006 9:52pm
Quoting Mr Trend
Actually, NFP is easy to trade.

5 minutes before the numbers are released, set Buy and Sell Limits at the highest high and lowest low of the last 25 minutes + 12 pips. Set a Stop of 8 pips and a PT of 80. Use proper risk management. (ya know... MAX LEVERAGE!!!!!)

Sit back and drink yer coffee. Once about 10 minutes is over, you'll either hit your target or you'll need to exit. After that, shut down your charts, close your brokerage window, and start your weekend...

eeeehehehehe. hmm with 400:1 i can put in 1 mini per $25.......
  • #12
  • Jul 7, 2006 1:20am Jul 7, 2006 1:20am
My point is, If a person is asking for recomendations as to how to trade the most volatile news event each month, It would be apparent they do not have a lot of experience. It would be unwise to send them to trade an event that, yes , can be traded by an expert. It is a recipe for failure.

If you think you have a method for trading NFP, which many people do. I have traded the aftermath quite successfully, then try trading it in demo first and see what happens. Sure it only comes once a month, but you have plenty of time to learn.

Perhaps one of the people who are suggesting to trade the NFP could take a moment and guide you through the process as it is happening. Otherwise, unless you know what you are doing, It is just a gamble. Good luck...

Scott
  • #13
  • Jul 7, 2006 7:49am Jul 7, 2006 7:49am
Quoting Mr Trend
Actually, NFP is easy to trade.

5 minutes before the numbers are released, set Buy and Sell Limits at the highest high and lowest low of the last 25 minutes + 12 pips. Set a Stop of 8 pips and a PT of 80. Use proper risk management. (ya know... MAX LEVERAGE!!!!!)

Sit back and drink yer coffee. Once about 10 minutes is over, you'll either hit your target or you'll need to exit. After that, shut down your charts, close your brokerage window, and start your weekend...
Didn't work, esp. with a 8 pip stop. Definitely not with Buy/Sell Limits, maybe with Buy/Sell Stops
Ekvattiekakkie
  • #14
  • Jul 7, 2006 7:55am Jul 7, 2006 7:55am
I set a buy and stop limit at the highest close and lowest close of the last 7 days. Then I chickened out right before the number came out (cuz I'm a noob) and watched a 90 pip profit I missed. Boooo hooooo. Oh well - I'm still up 102 pips in July.


Lisa
  • #15
  • Jul 7, 2006 8:20am Jul 7, 2006 8:20am
Quoting Linus
Didn't work, esp. with a 8 pip stop. Definitely not with Buy/Sell Limits, maybe with Buy/Sell Stops
Then you did something wrong, or your broker played games with you.

From 5:00 - 5:25 PST, the highest high on Oanda was 1.2784

I got filled at 1.2796.

You can do the math from that point on by looking at any chart.
Mr. Trend
  • #16
  • Jul 7, 2006 8:20am Jul 7, 2006 8:20am
Quoting smjones
My point is, If a person is asking for recomendations as to how to trade the most volatile news event each month, It would be apparent they do not have a lot of experience. It would be unwise to send them to trade an event that, yes , can be traded by an expert. It is a recipe for failure.

If you think you have a method for trading NFP, which many people do. I have traded the aftermath quite successfully, then try trading it in demo first and see what happens. Sure it only comes once a month, but you have plenty of time to learn.

Perhaps one of the people who are suggesting to trade the NFP could take a moment and guide you through the process as it is happening. Otherwise, unless you know what you are doing, It is just a gamble. Good luck...

Scott
I don't disagree with you Scott. It's just that everyone tells newbies "Don't trade the NFP" without qualifying their statement as you just did. The NFP is it's own beast that people can become accustomed to trading. However, if all newbies hear are "Don't trade it", they will never learn how to trade it.

To emphasize what you said in here, though, the NFP should not be traded until you have a sound system for trading and lots of experience demo trading it.
  • #17
  • Jul 7, 2006 8:30am Jul 7, 2006 8:30am
Hi Guys,

to be honest I dont understand who says to stay out of nfp.
I agree staying out of fomc, but nfp is basically only one number, so the reaction should be unidirectional.
In the worst case, you loose what you locked into the 2 orders (sell down of current price and buy up of current price).
the risk reward is 1.5/9 at least in only 30 seconds..
no time lost, few loose risk compared to rewards, so what the problem ?

if you risk 150 $ you took aout 1500$ from gbp-usd
if you decide to play 500$ you would have now 5.000$
you you decide to risk 1000, now 10.000$.

What is so bad ?

i always do.

thanks !
  • #18
  • Jul 7, 2006 8:35am Jul 7, 2006 8:35am
Quoting Squid
I set a buy and stop limit at the highest close and lowest close of the last 7 days.
I would advise that that's too far in terms of days to look back. With my strategy, you don't care about anything more than the first ten minutes. That means you should look at the last thirty minutes max. After ten minutes, it's anyone's game, and they should rename the day to "Whipsaw NFP Day" as far as I'm concerned.
Mr. Trend
  • #19
  • Jul 7, 2006 8:36am Jul 7, 2006 8:36am
Quoting stockwet
I don't disagree with you Scott. It's just that everyone tells newbies "Don't trade the NFP" without qualifying their statement as you just did. The NFP is it's own beast that people can become accustomed to trading. However, if all newbies hear are "Don't trade it", they will never learn how to trade it.

To emphasize what you said in here, though, the NFP should not be traded until you have a sound system for trading and lots of experience demo trading it.
Maybe Scot meant newbies who have live account and not DEMO. A newbie could be a person who had DEMO and just went live a very short time ago. As many would agree, having long time DEMO does not make one trained. Just like many brokers, a live platform in not like a Demo platform. Emotion and adrenalin level in live trading COULD bring one back to a newbie stage.
Just qouting what has repeated by members here before.
Highway
  • #20
  • Jul 7, 2006 8:43am Jul 7, 2006 8:43am
i don't find any difficulty trading the nfp, actualy trading it consists in waiting until the price takes a direction, and then executing a fast trade, wich will result in at least 50 pips,
you may miss the first 50 pips that showed u the direction, but not the second one.
Trading is a long and a short story.
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