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vsa with Malcolm

  • #25,101
  • Dec 20, 2013 9:52am Dec 20, 2013 9:52am
Quoting pres78
{quote} When it works, it works. You can see the SM taking price down into that zone formed between the swing highs that had been broken. Back to the zone (hope you don't mind that I used your chart Aldo) where many small traders became trapped into bad shorts and where other small guys took break out longs. All of the bodies inside the zone with wicks in both directions out of the zone shaking out both sides of the herd. Once the path was cleared price was free to head back up from support. This is where understanding price structure and price...
please, check post 25,095..thanks
  • #25,102
  • Dec 20, 2013 3:07pm Dec 20, 2013 3:07pm
Quoting pres78
In the spirit of the season I wrote a little trading inspired Christmas poem for all my friends here at the best VSA thread on FF. I hope everyone has a safe and happy end of 2013 and I look forward to being around a little more come 2014. Many green pips to all.
Amazing! Forgot you did one last year as well!

I, for one, have been very absent since June. I'll hopefully get back into a bit more in the new year.
  • #25,103
  • Edited Dec 21, 2013 6:43am Dec 20, 2013 8:58pm | Edited Dec 21, 2013 6:43am
Quoting carbonado
{quote} Thanks for all the explanation...its really helpfull................i want to ask what makes a suppy and demand level proven............................and could you explain what you meant by volume at volume.............
For a supply and demand level (should call these zones, not levels) to be consider valid it has to do something. There are many opinions all over the internet on what that actually means and to be quite frank it can mean different things to different people depending on what their trading plan says.

For me a demand zone MUST;

  1. Show signs of active buying and interest in higher prices.
  2. Take out some form of previous supply.

# 2 is really the most important part really so we know the buyers are serious. If we see a bounce from a demand zone but then it fails the first time it meets supply there is not yet near enough real buying going on and we may well just be seeing a weak retrace before a continued move down. This is where knowing how to read price action and structure become important.

Volume at volume simply means seeing a UHV bar print right at a previous UHV bar and those bars sharing a level (say the low of the new bar is the same as the high of the previous bar). Look back at my posts for examples (one big one is when 50% of a new UHV bar is the same as the H or L of a previous UHV bar signaling a breakout and a change of who controls zone many times). If I have time this weekend I will post a chart.

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,104
  • Dec 20, 2013 9:32pm Dec 20, 2013 9:32pm
Quoting pres78
For me a demand zone MUST; Show signs of active buying and interest in higher prices. Take out previous some form of previous supply. # 2 is really the most important part really so we know the buyers are serious. If we see a bounce from a demand zone but then it fails the first time it meets supply there is not yet near enough real buying going on and we may well just be seeing a weak retrace before a continued move down. This is where knowing how to read price action and structure become important.
Excellent post, thank you, your #2 just gave me an idea for my EA.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #25,105
  • Dec 20, 2013 9:34pm Dec 20, 2013 9:34pm
Quoting pres78
Volume at volume simply means seeing a UHV bar print right at a previous UHV bar and those bars sharing a level (say the low of the new bar is the same as the high of the previous bar). Look back at my posts for examples (one big one is when 50% of a new UHV bar is the same as the H or L of a previous UHV bar signaling a breakout and a change of who controls zone many times). If I have time this weekend I will post a chart.
Hi Pres
Thanks for all your explanations.
Could you have a look to post #25,094.
I think it's what happened on the EU chart I posted, the FOMC candle printed across a previous UHV candle zone..
Where on that chart would you say that the supply/Demand zones would be?
Thanks
Srx
  • #25,106
  • Dec 21, 2013 2:04am Dec 21, 2013 2:04am
Quoting pres78
{quote} For a supply and demand level (should call these zones, not levels) to be consider valid it has to do something. There are many opinions all over the internet on what that actually means and to be quite frank it can mean different things to different people depending on what their trading plan says. For me a demand zone MUST; Show signs of active buying and interest in higher prices. Take out previous some form of previous supply. # 2 is really the most important part really so we know the buyers are serious. If we see a bounce from a demand...
I think #2 means, price should make a higher high.
  • #25,107
  • Dec 21, 2013 2:42am Dec 21, 2013 2:42am
Quoting pres78
In the spirit of the season I wrote a little trading inspired Christmas poem for all my friends here at the best VSA thread on FF. I hope everyone has a safe and happy end of 2013 and I look forward to being around a little more come 2014. Many green pips to all. A VSA Christmas Miracle Twas the night before Christmas, when all through my house, My computer was sleeping, not even touching my mouse. My take profits were set by my me with care, In hopes that some profits soon would be there. I was sleepy and nestled all snug in my bed, While visions...
How I missed that??? True talent

Next year with Yellen?
  • #25,108
  • Dec 21, 2013 4:36am Dec 21, 2013 4:36am
Quoting pres78
{quote} For a supply and demand level (should call these zones, not levels) to be consider valid it has to do something. There are many opinions all over the internet on what that actually means and to be quite frank it can mean different things to different people depending on what their trading plan says. For me a demand zone MUST; Show signs of active buying and interest in higher prices. Take out previous some form of previous supply. # 2 is really the most important part really so we know the buyers are serious. If we see a bounce from a demand...


Hi Pres,
Following my previous post and to precise a little bit more why I am intrigued by your trigger levels and S/D zones here is my marking of the EU chart, from a Wyckoff’s point of view. The zoned drawn at the UHV candle H&L is very close to the TR I would have marked from the small reaction after the PSY level to the top of the Buying Climax (Cf Dark blue zone) leaving out the wicks as I use to do.
On the way up I couldn’t help but notice that the 3 pushes up (Coral lines) completed a cycle before entering in TR and that the High of the last news candle/Stop Hunt was making a double top with the bar marked ST (secondary test).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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From there we expect a big push down that we already had.
But when in a TR at the end of a cycle like this I have no clue how to see where price will start its big move and would have been unable to see it coming (and during the news my feed froze.
Maybe knowing where S/D zones are would have helped?
So I’m very curious of what you see.
Now trying to go beyond what we’ve seen above and zooming out we see that not only price has printed a small M on H1 but a huge one at the dashed yellow line, the 2 last tops being just 10 pips shy of that one and there is probably a lot of BO buys and Sell SL trapped just above it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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So, has EU entered a new cycle down?
It’s possible but we are still in an uptrend inside that dashed blue channel, and we are now so close to reach the dashed crimson weekly trendline that seems to be already passed on CrapT4 because it is just that, Crap.
But the line is actually 100 pips above (see W1 chart) and there is probably a lot of orders waiting there; so the foodchain and potential carnage will probably attract price over there before deciding wether to start a new cycle up or down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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All this is great, but how does it helps me in my trading? zilch...
Because at the intraday level only VSA marks the way.
But I'm curious to learn about all I have highlighted in your post.
Thanks
Srx
  • #25,109
  • Edited 8:02am Dec 21, 2013 6:47am | Edited 8:02am
Quoting Trappist
{quote} I think #2 means, price should make a higher high.
Not just a HH is enough for me. Not all supply zones or swing highs are created equal and we need to be wary of fake outs or price mark-ups where SM use UT's and no buying pressure bars to trick the herd into thinking a breakout has occured. Just because we get a HH does not guarantee higher prices nor that the demand zone is in fact that. Most of the time I would agree but it's not a guarantee. The SM know many traders trade a break out method and like to take advantage of this to gather stops and fill their orders.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,110
  • Dec 21, 2013 8:10am Dec 21, 2013 8:10am
Quoting schmurex
{quote} Hi Pres, Following my previous post and to precise a little bit more why I am intrigued by your trigger levels and S/D zones here is my marking of the EU chart, from a Wyckoff’s point of view. The zoned drawn at the UHV candle H&L is very close to the TR I would have marked from the small reaction after the PSY level to the top of the Buying Climax (Cf Dark blue zone) leaving out the wicks as I use to do. On the way up I couldn’t help but notice that the 3 pushes up (Coral lines) completed a cycle before entering in TR and that the High...
Schmurex,

I will try at some point this weekend to address some of yours questions and points. I haven't yet as I have not had enough time yet and well... you asked a lot of questions .
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,111
  • Dec 22, 2013 6:34pm Dec 22, 2013 6:34pm
Quoting schmurex
{quote}About drawing a zone from a UHV candle and dividing that zone in the middle, is it what you mean?
Yes that looks correct. I use MT4 and simply apply a Fib from the H to L of the UHV bar. On the Fib I show three levels which are 0, 50 and 100. Look back at my posts which contain charts for many samples of what I do. One thing I should note is that 50% is really only of value on WRB's. If the spread is too narrow then 50% becomes a tough level to trade.

Quoting schmurex
{quote}How long does this zone stay valid?
That I cannot answer with anything quantitive. The market will answer this question. Usually what will occur is that a UHV zone is replaced with a new zone of equally high or even higher volume. This can happen by new UHV selling bar at a supply zone or even a new UHV buying bar that overtakes a supply zone. We see this switching of ownership all the time where a zone that was run by the bears is now taken over by bulls. This can occur without creating a new zone or when a new zone is created. Many people hate high impact news. Me I love it because it creates new UHV zones that I can trade in future days and weeks after the event.

Quoting schmurex
{quote}Interestingly enough the news candle stopped right at the top of the lower zone.
Yes because it was approaching a UHV zone that was owned by the bulls so some support even if only temporary is to be expected.

Quoting schmurex
{quote}Could you expand a little bit about Trigger numbers, VZA, Market dynamics, Price structure, Supply and Demand or point me to the posts where I can better understand what you are refering to.
Well this is a tall order and I am afraid that some homework is in order. I have written many posts both here at over at the other VSA forum (you can PM Kinsale for an invite) about trigger numbers and VZA. If I find time to post more in the New Year with some charts there will be some new insights for me to share but until then check back through my posts with charts for many examples how I traded using VZA and VSA. Trigger numbers have been discussed here my Malc, HG, myself and also a few others so again take some time to dig deep for the information you require. I dont mind continuing to help and answer questions when I can but each of us needs to be ready to spend many hours reading and then back testing ideas presented in the charts. That is the only way things will really come together. One clue for how VZA works is that the H, 50% and L of the UHV zones are my trigger numbers. What I have learned over the past while though through S&D trading is that I cant focus on a hard number but need to be watching a zone so I now trade S&D with my VZA zones together in unison and then take VSA entries.

There are many great S&D threads here at FF but again I am not here to promote any one thread so find the ones that most interest you.

Market dynamics and price structure are tough to put down into words but basically this refers to price pattern, bar formations and how these work with our S&R or S&D areas that we are watching. Learning to read price structure and understaning what bar prints mean based on where they form takes many hours of screen time to backtest checking for patterns to see when and why they work. When I say patterns I mean both single bar prints and also multi bar prints. Any example is the two bar pattern mentioned by onepipperhour.

One great exercise that I have spent countless hours doing is taking every decent swing (say for EU moves of at least 35-50 pips) and determine why price stopped and turned where it did. Once you have found the zone that offer the buying or selling needed to create the turn now you can see if and where you could have entered using VSA. This was an invaluable exercise for me both to backtest my VZA zones but also to learn how to read price action and price stucture patterns.

I hope this is of some help. I will try and get to your other post of questions later when I find some more time.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,112
  • Edited 8:02pm Dec 22, 2013 7:36pm | Edited 8:02pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Yes that looks correct. I use MT4 and simply apply a Fib from the H to L of the UHV bar. On the Fib I show three levels which are 0, 50 and 100. Look back at my posts which contain charts for many samples of what I do. One thing I should note is that 50% is really only of value on WRB's. If the spread is too narrow then 50% becomes a tough level to trade. {quote} That I cannot answer with anything quantitive. The market will answer this question. Usually what will occur is that a UHV zone is replaced with a new zone of equally high or even...
Thanks so much Pres for your time and explanation.
I actually spent most of the last 2 days tracking down your posts on this thread reading along a lot of great posts from HG, Intel, Sonofsin, Kinsale, Mal and so many others.
So I have now a pretty clear idea about trigger levels and how to use them. I didn't reach yet the point where you introduce this VZA idea, or fib idea but I guess it's just a matter of time.
It actually takes time since I'm gathering those posts in a word document for future reference. So out of the 15 pages of your posts containing the word trigger that came out of my search I have only completed the 2 first.
Although I'm really interested in your answers and how you see things now, don't spend too much time answering my questions, posts about current trades with explanations would do as well.
Thanks
Srx
  • #25,113
  • Dec 23, 2013 1:21am Dec 23, 2013 1:21am
Quoting pres78
{quote} For a supply and demand level (should call these zones, not levels) to be consider valid it has to do something. There are many opinions all over the internet on what that actually means and to be quite frank it can mean different things to different people depending on what their trading plan says. For me a demand zone MUST; Show signs of active buying and interest in higher prices. Take out some form of previous supply. # 2 is really the most important part really so we know the buyers are serious. If we see a bounce from a demand zone...

thanks so much for your explanation..
  • #25,114
  • Dec 23, 2013 1:27am Dec 23, 2013 1:27am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Yes that looks correct. I use MT4 and simply apply a Fib from the H to L of the UHV bar. On the Fib I show three levels which are 0, 50 and 100. Look back at my posts which contain charts for many samples of what I do. One thing I should note is that 50% is really only of value on WRB's. If the spread is too narrow then 50% becomes a tough level to trade. {quote} That I cannot answer with anything quantitive. The market will answer this question. Usually what will occur is that a UHV zone is replaced with a new zone of equally high or even...

would be expecting a chart explanation...........
  • #25,115
  • Edited 9:27am Dec 23, 2013 6:58am | Edited 9:27am
Quoting carbonado
{quote} would be expecting a chart explanation...........
And I would be expecting that some effort is put forth by those asking questions...........

I have posted all kinds of chart examples showing how I draw the zones using a fib and also have posted many trade examples both after the fact and also live.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #25,116
  • Dec 23, 2013 7:20pm Dec 23, 2013 7:20pm
This week marks the last opportunity for tax loss selling some major north american markets.
Watch for massive volume at unexpected times during the session...North American.
  • #25,117
  • Dec 24, 2013 5:17am Dec 24, 2013 5:17am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.png Size: 37 KB
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #25,118
  • Dec 27, 2013 3:38am Dec 27, 2013 3:38am
Quoting Connected
{image}
Drunk Ryan would like to tell sober connected that 1h weakness is not weakness if the daily sma is up. Besides the bar is not an UT because it closes well below the previous bar. If you want to trade a 5m/15m chart then don't trade against the 1h sma trend, but if 5m/15m trade is against the daily sma then to treat it as a counter trend trade. IE smaller position and TP as soon as you can.

Drunk Ryan would like to tell Sober Ryan.. proud of you buddy.
  • #25,119
  • Dec 27, 2013 5:54am Dec 27, 2013 5:54am
Hehe! Merry Christmas Ryan/SimpleDev, thank you for your feedback at this festive time of year hope you are having a nice party time!

Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} Drunk Ryan would like to tell sober connected that 1h weakness is not weakness if the daily sma is up. Besides the bar is not an UT because it closes well below the previous bar. If you want to trade a 5m/15m chart then don't trade against the 1h sma trend, but if 5m/15m trade is against the daily sma then to treat it as a counter trend trade. IE smaller position and TP as soon as you can. Drunk Ryan would like to tell Sober Ryan.. proud of you buddy.
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #25,120
  • Dec 27, 2013 7:41am Dec 27, 2013 7:41am
Hi guys,

Im currently looking at usd/chf H4.

Chart is in a down trend but last Hr4 bar spike down and reversal above the support area.
Waiting for it to close above it to add more position.

Im still in the learning process.

I understand its not right to go against the trend but what do you think of this chart?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: metatrader 4 ic markets.png Size: 30 KB
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