EMA48 15M Spontaneity (but mostly just my rant)

Here is the first one.
The Rule:
An entry solely depends on my "gut feeling." Only when I think I can win, I enter -- Hence, "Spontaneity."
Meaning:
I don't enter all the signs that come from the conditions (will be on post 2).
The point I'm trying to make:
I don't really have any point to make here

Conditions
For a selling sign
(1) EMA48 (the red line) is downward -- the more slanted, the better.
(2) The price hits the EMA48 and reverses (negative bar) and simultaneously stochastics turns around downside.
If the green line EMA200 is above the red line, better
If the blue line EMA800 is above the red and green lines, even more better
If the red is far from green, better
If the red and green are tangled, no good (but can expect a break!)
If the red, green, blue are all tangled, it sucks (but can expect a big break!​)

For a buying sign -- opposite.

SL=10 TP=25 as default. Once +10pips, then SL=BE

I'm very happy with this method. So, criticism is not called for. If you want to challenge me, go somewhere else! You are not invited!
Don't ask newbie questions. I don't intend to talk about basics here.
I don't have faith in technical/fundamental analysis, the market structuralism, a price action method, wave theories, fib, and candlestick patterns. If you are a worshiper of those and try to enlighten me with those, you are not invited.

And I absolutely do not want to hear how successful you are!!! If you want to brag about your trading, bring it to somewhere else.
But I don't mind listening to your failure. I like to solve your problem. Without failure, you don't succeed!!

Sell limit on EMA48.

will give it a try...do you trade the 15M TF with this settings only?
Thanks.

Regards,
Forex Lion

Yes. And I check 1h chart every once in a while. 1h has EMA12, 50, 200, and 800. I see EMA200 mostly.

F***!! The limit order missed by a few pips!!That happens all the time... missed the boat

I trade only EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and JPYUSD. No others -- they are all blood sucking mosquitoes (too much spread!!!)

Here is an interesting setting.
It fits the conditions, but I don't enter because on 4H, the price hits EMA200 and stoc is turning. So, it might go up, even though I would not be surprised if the price goes down. Also, the price hits S/R area (blue line). See, I don't have faith in the conventional trading knowledge, but use it to filter entries. Yes, I use the conventional knowledge in an opposite way that most people use it to enter trading.

It's going slow...

One day I was stuck by a lightening, which made me realize that I was all wrong about trading.
I was doing everything opposite. Everything.
Everything I learned from FF, books, paid programs should have been to teach me "what not to do," although it was supposed to teach me "what to do."
Do you understand?
All the conventional belief/dogma is supposed to teach how to take positions. NO! I realized that it's teaching me how not to take positions.
Don't get me wrong. I agree that all the conventional belief/dogma has valid points. Actually some are pretty good. What I'm saying is, it just teaches how to identify points where the market staggers or turns.

Think about why people take such a pain to produce threads on FF, books, and paid programs? Because they don't make tons of money (they do some, maybe). So, they are doing something wrong. That is, they take positions based on their methods and lose. Now I say, we should read their stuff as examples of ineffective trading methods. That doesn't mean their stuff is useless; on the contrary, it is a great source to learn "where to avoid taking positions."

An example: recently I see a lot of "price action methods" on FF. It's basically about S/R, trendlines, and fib. There is truth about it -- the price actually does something at those areas/lines. But the fact is, you don't really know which way the price goes. So, you should avoid entering there. Does this make sense to ya?

Successful traders know it, I believe. And their edge is not based on the conventional trading knowledge. Their edge must be stupidly simple stuff. Read "Turtles." You will see how simple the methods of the cutting edge traders are.

Is my method EMA48 as simple and effective as theirs? We'll see.

Now, why am I doing this thread? Because I'm not making tons of money? True! And because I'm trying to organize my thoughts by writing it. My goal is to leave FF as soon as possible by reaching a place where I want to be.

These are not EMA48, but something I do.
EURUSD EMA800 (=EMA200 on 1h) bounce
JPYUSD EMA200 (=EMA50 1h) bounce

Post 13 was for much advanced FF members. I expect only a few people to understand what I say in post 13.
Only people who can think out-of-box understand what I say.
But the key to success is to thinking out-of-box, which all big shot traders do.

Anyways, back to post 13, I use the conventional knowledge to avoid bad entries. That is, when I get a sign from the EMA48 method, I check SR, trendlines, fib, weekly/monthly pivots, and previous day high/low and avoid the entry if I see more than two obstacles. See post 11.

My point here is, this EMA48 method is for people who have sufficient trading textbook knowledge. It is not a mechanical "system" that FF members look for. My method requires a great deal of trading experience, knowledge, and skill in order to identify and execute winning entries as many as possible.

I guess now really only a few people follow this thread. That is OK by me

The most important factor in forex is the stop loss (SL).
You conquer this problem, then, you are the king, the invincible.
SL is more critical than trading methods.
SL is more significant than money management.

Do not argue with me!!! I don't listen to you. I know I am damn right about this.

An example: if you have unlimited fund, you trade without SL and will be a winner no matter what.
Think about the Japanese government last year.
Their intervention took place a couple of times and they were all unsuccessful.
And they did not put any SL.
How much do you think they lost from those failures?
Not a dime. On the contrary, they have made an astronomical amount of profits by now.

At the lowest point JPYUSD was 76.00. Now it's 103. EURJPY jumped from 99 to 142!!

This is not the case for us.

If you do not put SL, you will empty your account without fail 100%. It may take years, but you will lose everything eventually.

Do not argue with me!!! I don't listen to you. I know I am damn right about this.

So, SL is THE problem.

PS: I said you would empty your account by trading with no SL. This does not mean you will lose money in total. That is, you could make a fortune BEFORE you empty the account. Do you understand? If you are lucky enough to get a super ranging market condition, you might make ton of profit.
But chances are that you lose money, anyways.

Going slow...
Edit: SL=BE

So, SL is the problem.
The tighter SL you incline to, the better chance you have to be successful.
This is my conclusion.
Only a few successful traders that I know on FF are all setting a tight SL -- 30pips at most in any trades no matter what time frame they trade.

Before I reached the conclusion, I was so wrong about SL.
That is, all conventional trading methods taught me to set an SL case by case. For example, when you go short, you set an SL at previous high. Or, when you trade a pin bar, you set an SL at the top/bottom of the pin bar.
This is wrong.

You have to have your own acceptable SL amount regardless of the situation. In my case, it's 10 pips. If I need to set an SL further than 10 pips, I don't enter the trade no matter what.

You don't get it, do you? That is why you don't make a fortune You don't succeed only because you don't know you can trade with fixed SL. It is not your trading method that keeps you from becoming a millionaire. I'm not joking.

Do not argue with me!!! I don't listen to you. I know I am damn right about this.

Now question is, how do you integrate a tight fixed SL into your trading method?

Going slow again...

Edit: SL=BE

Now question is, how do you integrate a tight fixed SL into your trading method?

Before I go into the answer, let me digress a bit.
When I started forex 7 years ago, I immediately knew it was extremely difficult to enter at swing high/low no mater what time frame. To me it seemed impossible to do.
What I did was, hedging. I went both short and long at the same time (hedging was allowed those days). Then, I closed one of them when it got 200 pips. Closing the position, I opened both short and long again from there. Of course I still kept one of the first ones. And I went on and on...
Many times, the other losing position got even later. Some times I neutralized the other losing position with a winning position(s). I did everything by my intuition.
One time I kept more than 20 positions. It was quite a complicated maneuver, but somehow I managed it and made pretty good profits. I tripled my account in 2 months. The pair was GBPUSD only.
The drawback came. Losing positions accumulated and I got scared and closed all. I lost 1/3 of asset. I no longer could do hedging out of fear.
I got scared because I studied a lot about forex by then. I read 100s of books and all the threads on FF/Babypips.
I was full of s**t -- conventional knowledge learned from unsuccessful traders.
I became like you!!