Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 187 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,721
  • Dec 16, 2013 4:18pm Dec 16, 2013 4:18pm
As always a very nice webinar Alfonso, looking forward to more in the new year, many thanks and Happy new year, Photize
  • #3,722
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:58am Dec 17, 2013 1:58am
Thanks Alfonso,much appreciated.
  • #3,723
  • Edited Dec 18, 2013 2:23am Dec 17, 2013 7:46am | Edited Dec 18, 2013 2:23am
Shall we cancel all our pending limit orders before the big news? (such as tommorrow's FED decision)

In the post #1 Alfonso says do not trade news and slow markets, so I guess the answer is YES ;-) but wanted to check to be sure...

I have a couple nice & promising orders waiting... and point is that news event could exactly be the trigger for the price to go to fill my limit orders... but of course they can also go to my stop loss directly from there, I know.

(I am still demo trading Supply & Demand, so I care less and, in spite of that, or becasue of that, my demo trading SD H1/D1 set & forget has better results than my live trading D1 price action at key levels... I turned my demo 10k into 12k after 30 trades in 2 months with roughly $200 risk per trade, interesting, isn't it? I plan to go live micro account after 3 consecutive profitable months on demo, so I don't want to spoil my result due to news trading ;-)

Thanks in advance.
Michal9
  • #3,724
  • Dec 17, 2013 9:20am Dec 17, 2013 9:20am
Quoting michal9
Shall we cancel all our pending limit orders before the big news? (such as tommorrow's FED decision) In the post #1 Alfredo says do not trade news and slow markets, so I guess the answer is YES ;-) but wanted to check to be sure... I have a couple nice & promising orders waiting... and point is that news event could exactly be the trigger for the price to go to fill my limit orders... but of course they can also go to my stop loss directly from there, I know. (I am still demo trading Supply & Demand, so I care less and, in spite of that, or becasue...

Great results and above that a great attitude towards trading!!

Congratz!!!
"When the student is ready, the teacher will appear"
  • #3,725
  • Dec 17, 2013 10:53pm Dec 17, 2013 10:53pm
Attached is the daily chart of audcad as discussed in the latest video. The monthly and daily trend are down so we are looking to sell on fresh supply level. However, if price were to hit 0.9405 (fresh and original demand zone) would I be allowed to buy? According to the rules, counter-trend trade is only allowed on fresh and original SD zones. So in this example, I would be allowed to buy. Is my understanding correct? Appreciate if Alfonso or anyone can clarify this point. Thank you.

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  • #3,726
  • Dec 18, 2013 12:40am Dec 18, 2013 12:40am
Quoting jack108
Attached is the daily chart of audcad as discussed in the latest video. The monthly and daily trend are down so we are looking to sell on fresh supply level. However, if price were to hit 0.9405 (fresh and original demand zone) would I be allowed to buy? According to the rules, counter-trend trade is only allowed on fresh and original SD zones. So in this example, I would be allowed to buy. Is my understanding correct? Appreciate if Alfonso or anyone can clarify this point. Thank you. {image}
Price has not hit the AUDCAD's fresh and original D1 demand zone, not on my chart. Yes, you can go counter-trend on a fresh and original zone.
Am I going to go long there? No, I won't. Why? I mostly want to trade with the trend.

Also, you must ask yourself, are you a trend trader, a counter-trend trader or both? I am a trend-trader myself.
Ask yourself this question as well, where is that D1 demand zone on its curve (the monthly), high or low?

Once you ask yourself the right questions, you will get the right answers!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,727
  • Dec 18, 2013 6:14am Dec 18, 2013 6:14am
Hi there,I need your view on this matter right now on GU daily chart. As you can see on my chart,the upper trendline was broken and 1 demand level (the gray one that price broke through) was broken as well so the supply level on top is a valid zone and the trendline is broken right? But now price bounced from lower demand zone so is the new trendline is the lower one now? So I want to ask if I want to trade D1/H1 combo for example,the D1 right now is in a downtrend because demand zone is violated or still an uptrend? And will you take a trade at the supply zone above? Hope you can help me,looking forward to hearing from you.
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  • #3,728
  • Dec 18, 2013 6:46am Dec 18, 2013 6:46am
Quoting jack108
Attached is the daily chart of audcad as discussed in the latest video. The monthly and daily trend are down so we are looking to sell on fresh supply level. However, if price were to hit 0.9405 (fresh and original demand zone) would I be allowed to buy? According to the rules, counter-trend trade is only allowed on fresh and original SD zones. So in this example, I would be allowed to buy. Is my understanding correct? Appreciate if Alfonso or anyone can clarify this point. Thank you. {image}
Hi, Jack,
I wish to corroborate Alfonso on the above. My take on the above is: If you use monthly daily combo, we're now low on the curve and trend is down both on monthly and weekly charts. So location is high odd. Other pieces of the analysis also look good, but problem is price is basing just before the .9405 daily/monthly dz which makes the arrival lower odd. In the light of this, I prefer a confirmation trade here rather than set and forget.

Cheers!
Jamaa
  • #3,729
  • Dec 18, 2013 10:51am Dec 18, 2013 10:51am
Quoting frenetic
Hi there,I need your view on this matter right now on GU daily chart. As you can see on my chart,the upper trendline was broken and 1 demand level (the gray one that price broke through) was broken as well so the supply level on top is a valid zone and the trendline is broken right? But now price bounced from lower demand zone so is the new trendline is the lower one now? So I want to ask if I want to trade D1/H1 combo for example,the D1 right now is in a downtrend because demand zone is violated or still an uptrend? And will you take a trade at...
I don't know how much help this will be, but I can tell you that you're lower trend line is not valid. In order for it to be valid a higher high would have needed to occur. Also, since on this daily chart (assuming your levels are drawn correctly which I'm not yet an expert at) a demand level was last touched, that would indicator that daily demand is in control.

Based on the things Alonso has told me recently, at this point what you'd want to do is wait for your upper most daily supply zone to be touched, then wait for the 1 HR (entry TF) TL to be broken to the downside, then start watching for 1 HR supply levels to short against.... assuming there is still adequate profit margin down to the next daily demand level.

HTH
  • #3,730
  • Dec 18, 2013 11:11am Dec 18, 2013 11:11am
Quoting frenetic
Hi there,I need your view on this matter right now on GU daily chart. As you can see on my chart,the upper trendline was broken and 1 demand level (the gray one that price broke through) was broken as well so the supply level on top is a valid zone and the trendline is broken right? But now price bounced from lower demand zone so is the new trendline is the lower one now? So I want to ask if I want to trade D1/H1 combo for example,the D1 right now is in a downtrend because demand zone is violated or still an uptrend? And will you take a trade at...
Alfonso said that to change the trend from up to down, price needs to invalidate at least 2 demand zone. In this case price invalidates just 1 demand level.
We need to wait for the 2nd one to look for shorts.

Just my 2 cents
  • #3,731
  • Dec 18, 2013 12:41pm Dec 18, 2013 12:41pm
Hi

Panoramia can u tell me how many setups is it possible to find monthly?

Thanks
  • #3,732
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:20pm Dec 18, 2013 1:20pm
Quoting Nemojimmy
Hi Panoramia can u tell me how many setups is it possible to find monthly? Thanks

isn't that depending on what combo you want to trade and how many pairs you are following?

on the combo monthly / daily it is averaging 1 per month!!
"When the student is ready, the teacher will appear"
  • #3,733
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:41pm Dec 18, 2013 1:41pm
Oh sorry i forgot to mention it.I'm talking about d1/h1
  • #3,734
  • Dec 18, 2013 3:31pm Dec 18, 2013 3:31pm
I just wanted to post a little update on some of the live trades we covered on the last webinar, they are still alive, some of them like the S&P e-mini 500 rallied like a rocket.

The explanations of why I entered on each of these trades is covered in detail on this Monday's webinar, refer back to it if you don't know why I am on those trades. One of the trades mentioned, the D1 demand entry on USDCAD had an even better price for you to take it while I was on the webinar, if any of you took that trade then you are now having a profitable trade.
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,735
  • Dec 18, 2013 4:03pm Dec 18, 2013 4:03pm
Quoting panoramia
I just wanted to post a little update on some of the live trades we covered on the last webinar, they are still alive, some of them like the S&P e-mini 500 rallied like a rocket. The explanations of why I entered on each of these trades is covered in detail on this Monday's webinar, refer back to it if you don't know why I am on those trades. One of the trades mentioned, the D1 demand entry on USDCAD had an even better price for you to take it while I was on the webinar, if any of you took that trade then you are now having a profitable trade. {image}...

WOW
  • #3,736
  • Dec 18, 2013 4:14pm Dec 18, 2013 4:14pm
hi all, i have a technical question about rectangle indicator. sometimes it draws S/D zones as empty boxes and sometimes they are filled. any comments on that please? thanks
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  • #3,737
  • Dec 18, 2013 7:50pm Dec 18, 2013 7:50pm
Quoting frenetic
Hi there,I need your view on this matter right now on GU daily chart. As you can see on my chart,the upper trendline was broken and 1 demand level (the gray one that price broke through) was broken as well so the supply level on top is a valid zone and the trendline is broken right? ... {image}
Quoting lucariga
{quote} Alfonso said that to change the trend from up to down, price needs to invalidate at least 2 demand zone. In this case price invalidates just 1 demand level. We need to wait for the 2nd one to look for shorts. Just my 2 cents

Thank you for your opinion,I just want to be clear on this matter. Like which trendline is the valid one. If the upper trendline is the valid one then after D1 demand is taken out and trendline is broken then long is no longer valid. But after it bounced from the lower demand zone,then what happen to the supply that took out the demand on D1 and can we now draw a new trendline(like the one in my chart) and what should we do in this scenario? I hope Alfonso can read this,I just have a feeling that maybe he like to ignore my post
  • #3,738
  • Dec 18, 2013 8:21pm Dec 18, 2013 8:21pm
Thanks a lot Alfonso and Jamaa for reminding me about location trade. I forgot about it until you brought it up. Back to the video on location trade.
  • #3,739
  • Dec 18, 2013 11:43pm Dec 18, 2013 11:43pm
Quoting lucariga
{quote} Alfonso said that to change the trend from up to down, price needs to invalidate at least 2 demand zone. In this case price invalidates just 1 demand level. We need to wait for the 2nd one to look for shorts. Just my 2 cents
If an ascending TL is broken, it does not necessarily mean we do have a downtrend, price enters in "potential consolidation" mode. Only when we do have 2 obvious peaks in the opposing direction, we'll consider the trend to have changed. That "normally" happens when 2 demand zones (valleys) have been taken out).

Remember there are many different looks for this pattern, you need to be able to interpret each scenario/situation independently. IF you have doubts about the trend or how to draw a trendline on a pair/timeframe, skip that pair, add some notes to that chart and trade is when the tend is really obvious. Do not trade for the sake of trading, trade the clear setups, there are dozens a month.

Hope that helps
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,740
  • Edited 4:03am Dec 19, 2013 12:11am | Edited 4:03am
Quoting Nemojimmy
Hi Panoramia can u tell me how many setups is it possible to find monthly? Thanks
Quoting FxDoji
{quote} isn't that depending on what combo you want to trade and how many pairs you are following? on the combo monthly / daily it is averaging 1 per month!!
Who cares about the number of entries? Trade what you see, that's all. Sometimes you will get 2 per pair, sometimes none, some times more... who cares? It looks like everybody in general is obsessed with the number of trades that any given strategy can produce, instead of worrying about trading the strategy itself and whatever the markets gives you.

Trade what you see, don't count what the market is giving you, just trade, log your trade and on to the next one! No triggers in 3 days? Who cares? Maybe on the fourth day you will get 4 trades and after 1 week you will close them with 3-4% each and your month will be positive. You just don't know, trade what you see.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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