B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

Here is a better view of the 30 M .

TSD

I tend to look inside my trades using smaller TF as shown on this 5M. What I am looking for is where price go while I am in the trade. Sometimes I look before hand other times I am already in like this one. Gives me insight to where my stop is. My risk , etc. As you can see we have a demand Level price retraced to ( the 2 parallel blue lines. Yes I could have gotten in a bit lower .. but I was waiting on the swap to retrace. R/R was correct for me on the trade so I entered.

You will notice I use volume .. Just below this Highest Volume Bar coinciding with the large spread Candle indicated to me that this is where the SM really kicked off their move in the TF..we can see price did retrace to this Demand and left in strong fashion.. when I can find level the match with volume.. ( it is the context of volume I am looking at ) ..this helps define the correct level.. Is it always this way ??? NO.. But enough that it works for me !

TSD

Here is a 1M view of the Demand Level.. see the Volume coinciding with the UP move..Extreme.. SM are the only ones that can create this .. Again , tells me I am in the right area.

Look at volume in context of the preceding price /volume action/relationship.. You will see this happen quite often.

TSD

Here we are back to the 30M

We have a possible stall are just ahead of price. I call these Base Supply/Demand level as they are in the Base of the pattern. Actually my target is a Base Supply Level.. Price has already attempted this stall level so hope will see an eventual break and continued push up. Notice how long price spent at this level? when price spends this much time the level tends not to be as strong as when price spends a short amount of time.. Reference Sam's Odds Enhancers'

Trading at these time can be a slow grind. Patience is the key.

will see?

TSD

Just as a point of reference.. Tokyo ends in a little less than 3 HR.. London opens in a little less that 2 HRS. As i trade the Asian market quite a bit.. This late time from Tokyo to London can be good.. Especially when the sessions overlap.

Now if I can just stay up that late. That's the only other downside as I am on the west cost of the US. Can make for a long night!

TSD

Price has decided to revisit our 5M Demand level in a very aggressive fashion. ( Just above actually.. Would have preferred it to have gone inside but will see ? ) Usually that is a good sign.. You want price to move into a level very aggressively. Generally that means it will hold.. Again .. another Odds Enhancer..

Price came from the Supply on the 1M and 5M ...depending on how you draw you levels.

TSD

Price had good volume on the PIN candle.. Then price move aggressively away..Hopefully price returns to its northward track. The challenge is getting past those small Supply level just ahead..

Will see?

TSD

We have 3 PIN Candle in this current price cluster on the higher TF....Indicating price is having difficulty shorting.. Plus we have had 2 attempts at our 5M Demand Level..Holding with solid bounces both time.

What may be form here is the Base in a Rise Base Rise pattern.



Here's a picture of the 60M .. See how obvious the Supply Level is at the 103.62 area.. We had a very aggressive drop from that level.. A nice base has formed..All we are doing is trading with the major trend, out of the Base, into the higher TF Supply Level.. Price is drawn ( IMHO ) back to the areas.. especially if you are with the major trend..

Will see?

TSD

Hi TraderinSD, great charts and clear analysis. Thank you for putting some life back in this awesome thread. A blessed festive season to you.

Here is a Daily shot with some additional info. Trend, activity.. Levels, etc



I show the Monthly to illustrate where the major pressure is. Price is moving aggressively toward the Monthly Supply. Price also made an attempt to break a resistance line 101.54 back in May..then finally did it in November. See the pattern.. Price is being pulled in that direction.. For me this adds to the direction I want to trade. This idea can be used in all TF's.. It is my own Odds Enhancer.. Does it work all the time.NO.. but enough for me.. especially when you add other Enhancers to the trade...

This is a way that I can look at the percentages/ %'s... as it relates to pressure/direction.... and trade with reasonable confidence, that I am trading in the right direction.. Its what I call trading the Pattern w/in the Pattern.

Taking a smaller TF pattern and trading in the direction of the higher TF pattern using the Supply Demand..Drop.Base.Rise or Rise.Base.Drop patterns.

TSD

Price keeps trying to get there.. Bumped into a small Supply on the 1M.. retraced back down to Demand.. See the Green dotted vertical line.. SM's active.. see the volume .. Much greater that the preceding.. Context...Price did over shoot the Demand..But then moved back up with some momentum. .. On the 1M we are still sustaining HL's inside the Base on the 1M. London to open shortly.. Hope will have some additional activity that will take us to our TP.

Will See

TSD

Time for some rest..

Risk is define and set...London is open..Will check back in a few hours..

TSD

Thanks a lot for keeping up the thread SD, here's a trade im currently in at the moment let me know if you have any feedback, cheers.

So we end with a loss .. but that's trading. The 15M shows a somewhat of a Rise Base Rise pattern. If you move to the 1M you will see why price retrace back to that level.



It was not a fresh level but it was a level. Looking back at the 15M and the 1M it now makes sense.. It's where price should have gone..I just missed it. Probably should have waited for the retrace to the 15M before entering.

Till next time

Good trading to all

TSD

Price did touch your Supply way back / early on.. Only thing that I can see.. Otherwise looks good for the short.. Aggressive move into the level, Drop-Base- Drop pattern for Supply Level. Very Clear..Good RR...

Good trading

TSD

This is a 4hr lvl "tuned" down to 15. 3rd time return to the lvl, previous not shown. Given the wick thru would you consider this lvl broken?

Notice also the 2 candles before the wick thru candle. Would have actually taken 2 trades if i was'nt sleeping

cfdtaleong

This is a 4hr lvl "tuned" down to 15. 3rd time return to the lvl, previous not shown. Given the wick thru would you consider this lvl broken?
Yes, once price returns and enters a Level/Zone. The Level/Zone is considered broken.. Not a FRESH Level/Zone.

Each time price returns to a Level/Zone, more and more orders are eaten up. This creates less and less chance for the Level/Zone to hold. This is not to say price will not move away from a level in your chosen direction. It can and does al the time.

You can be aggressive in these trades once the level breaks and wait for a price retrace back to the broken level, essentially a Swap Trade = ala KL. Some would call it a Flip. I like to see a well define Support/Resistsance line somewhere along/inside the Supply/Demand Level. Looking for price to trade back to that S/R Level.. Basically looking for confluence.. Also, are you trading Trend or Counter Trend? If your original trade was a Counter Trend, the Level breaks in the direction of the Trend.. this would be the better trade.

These trade also require forthought. Know what you RR, TP's and SL's are before the break of the level. It will alow you to take the trade with more confidence. Clearly defined SL's and TP's make for a potentially higher probability trade.

Hope this helps

TSD

Yes it is very helpful thankyou. I don't take "flips" yet because I realised I got many concepts mixed up but things are getting sorted out nicely . I try to follow trend but the way I'm assessing it for now is by observing how price reacts to the zones. Supply respected more Im short, bias vis versa.

There was a picture perfect 4 Hour supply zone on the AUD/USD. I had my PO (limit order) at 0.8895. Unfortunately the high ended up being 0.8888 and I never got taken into the trade.

AUD/USD 4 HOUR CHART

They tend to fool ya when they can.

TSD