B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

trade worked great

This is a no trade for me, here are the reasons:

1) Massive down move from distance, we normally want price coming down to demand zone in a reasonable manner. What we need is an impulsive move into our demand or supply zone from closer.
2) The down move was a result of major news event, so trading at news time is no advisable
3) The demand zone is bit messy, there is no clear decision points and the up move was also not lackluster.

Although the trade worked this time, doesn't necessarily make it a good trade. You have to analyze each trade based on long term profitability and not as a single win or loss. Just think in terms of probabilities whether repeating similar scenario 100 times would it be a profitable.

Hi ken. How many markets do you monitor and do you typically trade the time fare that you identified the zone on or do you try and drill down time frames? Thanks in advance

epic PDF btw

see many times in Sam's trading presentation. What does the white line stand at candles for?

Price is long.. Meandering but moving into a Daily Supply. Above is also a monthly Supply. Price showing shallow pull backs into trend line. These levels (IMHO ) in the HIGHER TF's tend to act like magnets pulling price towards them when the get close.

TSD

30M view of what is happening now. The HIGH volume candle/bars indicate where the SM's are pushing price the strongest. Creating levels. we got long with a 2:1 RR.. I will explain why in the next chart.

TSD

We are using multiple TF's to view where price should ?? go. Staying on the 30M trying to get to the next Supply level might be a bit difficult as there is a strong S/R before Supply. If we step down in TF we see that the S/R coincides with a Supply. It also sets up nicely for a 2:1 RR. This will be our target. We are trading in an off peak time so we shorten our profit targets.

TSD

Price is moving in our direction. Even though we have shorten our RR.. We can always adjust our position size to meet the same goal as if we are trading in the higher TF's. Now we just sit back, relax .. and let the trade happen.. That is not to say we will not manage the trade if things get bumpy..But we also will need to give this trade time to work..Patience

TSD

Price has turn short off Supply inside the base. We are resting a the 50% on this retrace. Now comes the hard part...Do we stay or do we go??

TSD

We are still in.. Several reasons.. At the outset of the trade we defined our risk. We were comfortable then.. we should still be comfortable now. The risk has not changed.

Here is many traders will get real jumpy..I had a winner..Now I have a looser..Blah, Blah, Blah...The risk has not changed...Patience is the key, as you have already defined your risk.

If the trade move against me .. Oh well..Our job is to manage the risk from the beginning.... Many times patience will pay off...Patience as it relates to your risk will surprise you..

Will see???

TSD

Notice how volume was weakening as we came off from Supply inside the Base..We had good bounce at the 61.8% FIB, with a strong PIN with high volume.

Let see if we can get some follow through?

TSD

Price has started to move back in our favor. Another look inside the trade, 1M shows price bounced off a small Supply Level on the 1M.. Should see some retrace and continued price movement long . See how price meandered into this Supply Level. Not a good sign if you are trading the Supply Level short.. But it is a good sign when looking at this level if you are long on a higher TF. Meandering price into a level generally means the level will not hold.

will see?

TSD

Well the retrace was a bit farther than we expected.. Ya think.. Never the less we are still in the trade and price.. Once again.. has moved in our favor..Will this be the final push.. Will see?

TSD

Price has moved very much in our favor. .. London now open and Tokyo will close in less than 1 HR..

TSD

Hi TraderinSD,

Hope everything is fine with you. I like your posts.

the second circle did not make a LL. Do you think it is an enough argument to not take a short at 4H supply level ?

TP hit. Exit on the trade. Patience paid off.

Good trading to all

TSD

Hi Trappist,

Given the the market have made good moves long from the 102.13 area and the 102.66 areas. I am inclined to stay with the trend at this time. notice that the pull backs overall are shallow. trend is definitely long. better trades are long IMHO

hope this help

TSD

4HR view of overall trend..UP... Trades for me at this time are long. See following charts.

Here we have a 30 M TF. Price bounce off a 4HR Demand level. Next we see a Swap Level form on the 30M. For those not familiar with a Swap Level please look back into KL's thread. Has some examples of what it is.. It is similar to Support turning to Resistance or Resistance turning to Support. So we got long on the retrace on top of the Swap Level.

Target is the next demand Level overhead. Pressure is to the upside as indicated in the first chart. As I have stated in some of my other trades.. I believe these area when well define in the higher TF's act like magnet for price to be pulled toward them. For me it is a higher percentage trade.. I guess you could say this is my own little take on trading SD.

RR is 3:1 for the first level above.

TSD