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There is no Holy Grail

  • #101
  • Edited 1:16am Dec 14, 2013 1:04am | Edited 1:16am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Wouldn't it be same 'attempting to predict the future, which is fool's errand' to trade a system at all then - kinda like predicting stuff: up, down, SL, TP...
Quoting jmn5611
That would be attempting to predict the future, which is a fool's errand.
I`m think i know what he meant.Well nobody here "predicts" the future here as you think we do.
You can suppose to predict the future from a glass ball or the mathematical way used by meteorologists to "predict" weather.

And jmn5611 you confused it, i`m not looking at a glass ball and trying to predict the price or my accounts balance curve where will go.

Instead i`m calculating and putting up statistics based on previous information, and from that i`m trying to calculate what will be.It is how a meteorologist predicts the weather, he doesn't use tarot cards, but rather sophisticated mathematical analysis of data.

EDIT: The funny or sad thing is, i dont know how to label it, but some people actually use the "astrals" to (try to) predict the market.Heck if you google it, there are persons which sell on their website systems which are based on tarot cards, and planet aligning with stars prediction of markets
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #102
  • Dec 14, 2013 4:25am Dec 14, 2013 4:25am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Wouldn't it be same 'attempting to predict the future, which is fool's errand' to trade a system at all then - kinda like predicting stuff: up, down, SL, TP...
That depends on what you expect that system to do. Do you really think that just because a set of indicators all turn green that price is going to keep moving up? If you think any system predicts anything, you have been victimized by cognitive bias.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #103
  • Dec 14, 2013 4:31am Dec 14, 2013 4:31am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} {quote} I`m think i know what he meant.Well nobody here "predicts" the future here as you think we do. You can suppose to predict the future from a glass ball or the mathematical way used by meteorologists to "predict" weather. And jmn5611 you confused it, i`m not looking at a glass ball and trying to predict the price or my accounts balance curve where will go. Instead i`m calculating and putting up statistics based on previous information, and from that i`m trying to calculate what will be.It is how a meteorologist predicts the weather,...
If a stochastics crosses above 20 nine times, and price rises 10 pips nine times, does that mean that on the tenth time the stoch crosses 20 that price will rise ten pips?

I do understand what you are wanting to do, I am trying to understand better how you think that will translate into non-randomness in market behavior.

Weather prediction is based on physical science, which has immutable non changing physical laws. Are there any such physical non changing laws in the market? The seasons change because of the rotation of the earth, storms happen because of specific conditions. At the retail level, there are no conditions in the market that will cause any kind of specific behavior at regular intervals on a consistent basis.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #104
  • Dec 14, 2013 4:33am Dec 14, 2013 4:33am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Wouldn't it be same 'attempting to predict the future, which is fool's errand' to trade a system at all then - kinda like predicting stuff: up, down, SL, TP...

M15 and Above your predicting, there isn't enough information to see where the buyers and sellers are and the intraday trends which are way stronger than H4 trends, despite they last hours not months, M1 and M5 you can go with the flow, no predicting required.

We have a stat's guy!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #105
  • Dec 14, 2013 4:35am Dec 14, 2013 4:35am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} If a stochastics crosses above 20 nine times, and price rises 10 pips nine times, does that mean that on the tenth time the stoch crosses 20 that price will rise ten pips? I do understand what you are wanting to do, I am trying to understand better how you think that will translate into non-randomness in market behavior.
No ofcourse not, you could even profit then lose 10 in a row from the same setup, same was as Derren Brown rolled 10 heads in a row.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #106
  • Edited 5:07am Dec 14, 2013 4:53am | Edited 5:07am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} That depends on what you expect that system to do.
I expect the system 'to work only'. That's it. And it works!
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Do you really think that just because a set of indicators all turn green that price is going to keep moving up?
I don't really care why - most likely it will anyway just as it was doing that before - say not? - Try to prove it didn't happen!
Quoting jmn5611
If you think any system predicts anything, you have been victimized by cognitive bias.
I don't really give a damn to what hell of a something I was victimized by - you may go try to prove yourself - gonna say statistics is crap - good luck bud

Seems you don't have a clue at all in this matter as seen from this:
Quoting jmn5611
I am trying to understand better how you think that will translate into non-randomness in market behavior. At the retail level, there are no conditions in the market that will cause any kind of specific behavior at regular intervals on a consistent basis.
No-no! - I won't explain - don't even ask...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #107
  • Dec 14, 2013 4:57am Dec 14, 2013 4:57am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} M15 and Above your predicting, there isn't enough information to see where the buyers and sellers are and the intraday trends which are way stronger than H4 trends, despite they last hours not months, M1 and M5 you can go with the flow, no predicting required. We have a stat's guy!!
Dunno, Turv... - I trade my system!

Predicting or not - it works. As long as it does I don't care how others call it...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #108
  • Dec 14, 2013 5:08am Dec 14, 2013 5:08am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} I expect the system 'to work only'. That's it. And it works! {quote} I don't really care why - most likely it will anyway just as it was doing that before - say not? - Try to prove it didn't happen! {quote} I don't really give a damn what hell of a something I was victimized with - you may go try to prove yourself - gonna say statistics is crap - good luck bud Seems you don't have a clue at all in this matter as seem from this: {quote} No-no! - I won't explain - don't even ask...

I have no doubt that your system works. If you like to spend hours in front of a screen looking looking for set ups, rolling the dice, and hoping you are right, then more power to you. I prefer to maximize output while minimizing input. That is something a day trader will not likely comprehend. We all have our limitations that we must work within. For you, that means sitting in front a computer all day....for me, that means taking risk free trades over a longer period of time.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #109
  • Dec 14, 2013 5:18am Dec 14, 2013 5:18am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} No ofcourse not, you could even profit then lose 10 in a row from the same setup, same was as Derren Brown rolled 10 heads in a row.
Very well, that post shows you are well ahead of people who are looking for a bunch of boxes to turn red or white.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #110
  • Dec 14, 2013 5:38am Dec 14, 2013 5:38am

Quoting jmn5611
If you like to spend hours in front of a screen looking looking for set ups, rolling the dice, and hoping your are right, then more power to you.

1) It's possible for me to trade for a even couple of hours with very good results - I have time - thus trade more.

2) I know the most likely outcome - YOU BET! - expectancy and winrate [you deny that stuff - it didn't start to work any worse]

3) I know I’ll win in the long run anyway – even if… you say I won’t 10000 times

4) I don’t hope as I trade my plan and I know what I'm doing

Quoting jmn5611
I prefer to maximize input while minimizing output.

I, though, prefer to put in less and get more...

Quoting jmn5611
That is something a day trader will not likely comprehend.

I comprehend very well what makes sense but

Quoting Mikkk01
this is bullshit, sir

Quoting jmn5611
We all have our limitations that we must work within.

I hope you'll someday get close to how free I am from that - yep, whatever you say!!

Quoting jmn5611
For you, that means sitting in front a computer all day....

For me that means take money and go away when I decide to.

Quoting jmn5611
for me, that means taking risk free trades over a longer period of time.

For you that means you're delusional as there're no risk free trades.

The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #111
  • Dec 14, 2013 5:48am Dec 14, 2013 5:48am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote}1) It's possible for me to trade for a even couple of hours with very good results - I have time - thus trade more. 2) I know the most likely outcome - YOU BET! - expectancy and winrate [you deny that stuff - it didn't start to work any worse]3) I know I’ll win in the long run anyway – even if… you say I won’t 10000 times 4) I don’t hope as I trade my plan and I know what I'm doing {quote}I, though, prefer to put in less and get more... {quote}I comprehend very well what makes sense but {quote}{quote}I hope you'll someday get close...

You missed the mark so badly on that post that I had to see if English is your mother tongue, and I find that it is not. Therefore, you get a pass.

Input= what you put into something.

Output= what you take out of something.

You can go back and fix your post now, so you can save some kind of face.

Yes, there are indeed risk free trades. Since you are a day trader, you have no concept of that I understand, you have not yet come far enough in the trading landscape to understand what freedom is.

As soon as you can look at trading as a profession rather than a job, you will realize that sitting in front a screen for hours each day is a job. Professionals do not need to do that. Read Peter Crowns and Samuel Gramae, they have given the Grail. They also knew that the vast majority of traders cannot make the jump. If you cannot make the jump, don't blame me. I have given you the diagram of how to do it.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #112
  • Edited 11:20pm Dec 14, 2013 5:53am | Edited 11:20pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} You missed the mark so badly on that post that I had to see if English is your mother tongue, and I find that it is not. Therefore, you get a pass. Input= what you put into something. Output= what you take out of something. You can go back and fix your post now, so you can save some kind of face.
That is exactly what I wrote.

I like to put in less time and efforts but get better results.

Seems like it's you who missed the mark...

EDIT: looks like you corrected your post, native speaker?
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #113
  • Edited 11:22pm Dec 14, 2013 5:55am | Edited 11:22pm
Quoting jmn5611
Since you are a day trader, you have no concept of that I understand, you have not yet come far enough in the trading landscape to understand what freedom is. As soon as you can look at trading as a profession rather than a job, you will realize that sitting in front a screen for hours each day is a job.
Hee-hee.

That's funny - like these comments - they make me laugh

Quoting jmn5611
Professionals do not need to do that. Read Peter Crowns and Samuel Gramae, they have given the Grail. They also knew that the vast majority of traders cannot make the jump. If you cannot make the jump, don't blame me. I have given you the diagram of how to do it.
From all your posts the only one thing is obvious to me is - you're just a funny muppet obsessed with megalomania. Your posts are just ludicrous and make no sense at all - you're pretty much like BeginnerJoe. Waiting for new ones!!
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #114
  • Edited 7:41am Dec 14, 2013 7:28am | Edited 7:41am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} If a stochastics crosses above 20 nine times, and price rises 10 pips nine times, does that mean that on the tenth time the stoch crosses 20 that price will rise ten pips?
There is no absolute certainty, i dont say it must do that always with 100% accuracy, but if it already did it 20 times it has a very very good chance of doing it again.

But thats not a valid test yet i know, to confirm your hypothesis you have to have atleast 1 time when it doesnt do that to calculate the probability of failure.

So even if we assume that the 21th time will be false here is what its statistics are:

So the series coded in 1= true and 0 = false: 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
20 times of 1 and 1 times 0 at the end which means 20 succesful trades and 1 bad one.

-standard deviation: 0.21821789 σ

Attached Image


- and a z-test of 0.841344746 tested on the "1" or simply put, a 84.13% chance that a winner trade will come after the 21th losing one, so that the 22th will be again a winner

You see now my friend why it is very important to have a detailed statistics of your trade performance.

But of course 20 trades are not very good sample size, at least 30 is recommended for the Z-test and atleast 1000 or so is recommended for a decent sample, but i have a very bad habit of using a sample size of atleast 1 million trades,you know just for good accuracy

Quote
Weather prediction is based on physical science, which has immutable non changing physical laws. Are there any such physical non changing laws in the market? The seasons change because of the rotation of the earth, storms happen because of specific conditions. At the retail level, there are no conditions in the market that will cause any kind of specific behavior at regular intervals on a consistent basis

And what do your think the market is moved on, what is the difference between the randomness a molecule of rain's behaviour, and the randomness of a neuron in the brain of a central bank director which sets monetary policy?

I`m not even sure that the market is totally random, but it has random parts to it thats no doubt, but even if its random, who says you cant put up the statistics there?

The coin toss is random too, yet you can calculate the statistics there too, what is the chance of 10 heads in a row, and so on, it is very precise, so dont confuse the word "random" with the word "unknown" because they are not equivalent

EDIT: I still dont think that indicators are a very accurate source thou, but nontheless they can be statistically analyzed too, so they too obey the law of maths.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #115
  • Dec 14, 2013 8:27am Dec 14, 2013 8:27am
Quoting Proximus
I`m not even sure that the market is totally random, but it has random parts to it thats no doubt, but even if its random, who says you cant put up the statistics there? The coin toss is random too, yet you can calculate the statistics there too, what is the chance of 10 heads in a row, and so on, it is very precise, so dont confuse the word "random" with the word "unknown" because they are not equivalent
Agree.

"Unknown" fits much better.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #116
  • Dec 14, 2013 9:54am Dec 14, 2013 9:54am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Agree. "Unknown" fits much better.
Markets are probability based is a better word
  • #117
  • Dec 14, 2013 11:44am Dec 14, 2013 11:44am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Hee-hee. That's funny - like these comments - they make me laugh Good luck EDIT: now I found what exactly sounded so ridiculous to me: {quote} From all your posts the only one thing is obvious to me is: you're just a funny muppet obsessed with megalomania. Your posts are just ludicrous and make no sense at all - you're pretty much like BeginnerJoe. Waiting for new ones!!
I may be a muppet to you, and that's fine. It is clear to me that you do not have the emotional make-up to do much more than scrape for a few pennies each day. As I said before, everyone has limitations.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #118
  • Edited 11:27pm Dec 14, 2013 12:16pm | Edited 11:27pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I may be a muppet to you, and that's fine. It is clear to me that you do not have the emotional make-up to do much more than scrape for a few pennies each day. As I said before, everyone has limitations.
Muppet to me means you write crap you've got nothing to support with and, indeed, almost every post of yours is filled with loads of unjustified bullshit. Not only in this thread - throughout the forum. Your opinion on this matter was pretty clear for me even before this conversation:
Quoting jmn5611
But, this is the internet. It is a place where everyone can be whatever they want to be.
Yep, so true... but mostly for people who can't find anything good in their real-life [let alone be what they wanna be], thus, at least here, they can finally get to putting out the shit they're full of.

Repeating crap again and again - that's funny!

I bet people here enjoy laughing at your arrogant comments which just show you're wallowing in psychological disorders and have no clue about market at all, let alone current topic. You've chosen to be an insane clown - good on you!!
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #119
  • Dec 14, 2013 1:17pm Dec 14, 2013 1:17pm
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Muppet to me means you write crap you've got nothing to support with and, indeed, almost every post of yours is filled with loads of unjustified bullshit. Not only in this thread - throughout the forum. Your opinion on this matter was pretty clear for me even before this conversation: {quote} Yep, so true... but mostly for people who can't find anything good in their real-life [let alone be what they wanna be], thus, at least here, they can finally get to putting out the shit they're full of. Repeating crap again and again...
Believe me, I am not the one coming off as a emotional nub job here, my Ruskie friend.

I have said nothing to upset anyone but the emotionally immature. I apologize if I made you feel small in some way, because you are clearly acting out. Every one trades differently. I you feel the need to sit and wait for set ups and hope they work, again, that is your prerogative. Some of us just have found a better way, that's all.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #120
  • Edited 1:37pm Dec 14, 2013 1:26pm | Edited 1:37pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Believe me, I am not the one coming off as a emotional nub job here, my Ruskie friend. I have said nothing to upset anyone but the emotionally immature. I apologize if I made you feel small in some way, because you are clearly acting out. Every one trades differently. I you feel the need to sit and wait for set ups and hope they work, again, that is your prerogative. Some of us just have found a better way, that's all.
Dude, don't be delusional you just make me laugh...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
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