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Hard Way, Easy Way

  • #81
  • Dec 13, 2013 7:40am Dec 13, 2013 7:40am
Quoting Nefser
{quote} It may depend on what you mean by 'systematic'. As far as EA's, automated trading, etc., they can and do work. How well and in what markets - it seems to vary almost as much as single traders {quote} Completely wrong. I know (almost) nothing about what's going on in the markets and what's looming. (i.e., I read news items, but I don't vary my trading for it.) I know nothing about participants behaviour. I know a small bit about market dynamics - but probably not enough to know 'how much I don't know'. I do NOT have a solid knowledge of economics,...
Hi Nefser
I don't want to argue, probably you make money as a tech (manually or as a quant), some techs can make money of course though most of them are selling books and advices for a living not trading. I've been a tech and a mql passionate in my first years of trading. I just wanted here, as it is a rookie thread, to underline my own experience and believe me many of the biggest former technicians I know, who posted usually as gurus in this forum are on the same path. Anyway i don't post often on forums, but I have a trading journal (not updated lately), where I explain how I trade, in real time before it happens and you can see that I am rarely wrong. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=384909
Rien ne sert de courir il faut partir à point.
  • #82
  • Dec 13, 2013 8:43am Dec 13, 2013 8:43am
@flytox

Correct, we don't need to argue. However, you were the one being quite definitive about what people need to know before getting into trading (including bolding text for emphasis. That seemed to have a fairly strong sentiment, especially as this is a rookie area, as you stated in your later post.

All I was trying to clarify was that those statements are essentially completely unfounded, as I (and I'd suggest many others) do not know, or need to know, some or many of the items you were listing.

Yes, if someone wants to trade fundamentally, then perhaps those areas should be researched and kept up to date about. But as you state you're a tech, and I'm obviously heavily technically biased, I'm not sure why you had such a strong stance about what you were saying and inferring it was a requirement for people considering doing trading.
  • #83
  • Dec 13, 2013 9:02am Dec 13, 2013 9:02am
Quoting Nefser
All I was trying to clarify was that those statements are essentially completely unfounded, as I (and I'd suggest many others) do not know, or need to know, some or many of the items you were listing.
You bet.
Fundamental data is not at all obligatory...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #84
  • Dec 13, 2013 10:26am Dec 13, 2013 10:26am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} You bet. Fundamental data is not at all obligatory...
This can trigger a limitless discussion, let's say that technicals are just a part of the big picture, though significant mainly on intraday basis (with the econ news).
I am not a tech any more neither a fundie, but knowing how the different participants (techs, fundies, commercials...) are likely to position themselves helps to be on the good side of the probabilities. The most complicated exercise for me as a professional trader is the swing area where I look to initiate a well protected core position, when this is done I use the help of big techs signals (200DMA, weekly S/R, big fibo) to add to the core. Not that simple because you need a good timing to see the price going quickly away from your stop (by stop I mean the uncertainty zone boundary not a stop loss). As example I think that the EurUsd has reached a swing area, with a high boundary around 1.3850. A lot of liquidity over there and a massive exotic option barrier at this price. This level is going to be attacked and defended, and it's likely that the next fomc minutes will trigger the move against the ko barrier , opening the way to the liquidity (stop orders) needed by the swing to take place (market dynamics). Why the FOMC minutes? Becos it's the main focus of this end of year (tapering or tightening). And forex is not able to focus on more than one thing at a time. Any news or techs signals until then are going to be diluted quickly.
Take all this with some salt as I haven't been in the market since 2 months ago, but sometimes I feel the need to discuss in the forums, hoping it can help noobs as I ve been helped.
Rien ne sert de courir il faut partir à point.
  • #85
  • Dec 13, 2013 10:59am Dec 13, 2013 10:59am
Quoting flytox
{quote} This can trigger a limitless discussion
No, it can't.

A trader can be consistently profitable without that - it's a fact, thus it's not obligatory [by 'not obligatory' I mean everybody doesn't have to do that in order to achieve this goal - I do not deny the fact that there're successful fundamentalists]
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #86
  • Dec 13, 2013 11:50am Dec 13, 2013 11:50am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} No, it can't. A trader can be consistently profitable without that - it's a fact, thus it's not obligatory everybody doesn't have to do that in order to achieve this goal - I do not deny the fact that there're successful fundamentalists]
I made lot of money when I was scalping tick data. i am not promoting fundies over techs, i am just saying that none of them is the whole picture. Forex is monetary policy driven which is more ideological than fundamental (Keynes vs Fridmann). Why Yellen and not Summers. We cannot narrow down the whole picture to techies vs fundies, it,s so old story. A tech is seeking somekind of pattern or cycle to take postion, this is not going to work if nfp data is looming. A fundie is going to wait for an over/under valued price to ride a new trend, this is not going to work if liquidity is not there, not to mention timing or market sentiment. If i were a noob i'd refuse anything enclosing me in this or that school. But i'd definitely seek to understand them all and they are more than two of them.
Rien ne sert de courir il faut partir à point.
  • #87
  • Dec 13, 2013 12:02pm Dec 13, 2013 12:02pm
Quoting flytox
none of them is the whole picture
I didn't say otherwise.

Point is: I simply don't need that... If you do, in order to be successful - nothing wrong with that - it's just not necessary for everybody.

I didn't state anything except:
Quoting Mikkk01
Fundamental data is not at all obligatory.
and that
Quoting Mikkk01
it's a fact
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #88
  • Dec 13, 2013 12:47pm Dec 13, 2013 12:47pm
according to Mik's stubborn spirint in logically reasoning things out, i conclude he's an annoying, but successful trader who is honest, but bored too, lol.

in this business, being self-honest is the 1st step to the goal, and it is cruel and hard so that many ppl cannot do it forever. and that's why Mik looks so aggressive and somewhat annoying (to some). reminding me of favourite, or nub, lol

i like you guys

Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} I didn't say otherwise. Point is: I simply don't need that... If you do, in order to be successful - nothing wrong with that - it's just not necessary for everybody. I didn't state anything except: {quote} and that {quote}
  • #89
  • Dec 13, 2013 2:26pm Dec 13, 2013 2:26pm
Quoting charvo
according to Mik's stubborn spirint in logically reasoning things out, i conclude he's an annoying, but successful trader who is honest, but bored too, lol. in this business, being self-honest is the 1st step to the goal, and it is cruel and hard so that many ppl cannot do it forever. and that's why Mik looks so aggressive and somewhat annoying (to some). reminding me of favourite, or nub, lol i like you guys {quote}

Yep, annoying - that's me!!
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #90
  • Dec 14, 2013 1:05am Dec 14, 2013 1:05am
Quoting captialfm
Isn't that strange that instead of improving and developing their trading strategies , people just sit here in this rookie forum and talk about how hard it is to be successful. I mean what's the point of writing every second thread about Holy Grail or hard work. Y....x" or "why do people loose their money in forex".
Yup, we get a lot of these threads which usually hit the "no responses posted" marker in a few days. Frankly, these threads often de-evolve from a newbie's perspective or the need for a holy grail to a slinging match, unrealistic promises..
Of course, these threads do provide for some entertainment but that's about it, nothing more, nothing less..think of it as a re-run of a ten year old flick..
  • #91
  • Dec 15, 2013 10:20am Dec 15, 2013 10:20am
Quoting captialfm
{quote} I enjoy your phrase about that what happens in 08/09 takes place "FEW" times during lifetime of some person. You are talking so wisely, that you should know that those things DOESN'T HAPPEN FEW TIMES. The last time something like that happened was Great Depression. I think it was quite important to inform you.
You are right... events that catastrophic maybe only happen once or twice. However look at the period from 1997 - 2013. How many ups and downs not only in 1 asset class, but many...Not only in 1 region, but many... Enough opportunities to fuel a well funded and well educated individual who's willing to take risk in arrays of sectors.

Good luck
  • #92
  • Dec 29, 2013 10:18pm Dec 29, 2013 10:18pm
stupid folks don't believe in S/R, which makes me upset. so i post a live call, it is also in my TE.

this is 2nd time i post live in this thread, just for fun and a show to stupid folks, lol.

this one gonna be a rough one, no need to be as accurate as 1.8932 level, very rough

EURAUD, short NOW at 1.55, tp @ 1.5, and 1.45 (i'll decide on the price action going down), sl@ 1.6

okay, RR is 1:1~1:2, pretty awful for me, but the win% is so high that i'd lose to try.

reason: 1.55 is a significant level, watch it on weekly or daily if you like. i post a month chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud-mn1-go-markets-pty-2.png Size: 86 KB
  • #93
  • Dec 31, 2013 11:56pm Dec 31, 2013 11:56pm
Let 2014 tell, if:

1. gbpchf bull, and eurgbp bear, and these two validate each other
2. both eurjpy gbpjpy bull

these two above are very apparent, i've to say the other pairs are elusive to me.

just leave a mark as a reminder to myself.
  • #94
  • Jan 1, 2014 1:24am Jan 1, 2014 1:24am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Lets state something factual 80-90% Forex is not trending!!! Price is confined to a channel.
I second the channel. Each day pivots points are calculated and the unwritten law is they don't get exceeded. Otherwise a country could be bankrupted. During the course of time the market makers cheat the pivot lines and they begin to collapse. Eventually there is a breakout and that is the big "news" story on the networks. It is simply a reset of the pivot lines.

Call it a channel or support/resistance or pivot line. It is necessary to trade within them to maintain an economy.

YOUR problem? Each time frame has its own settings...LOL
You cannot be extraordinary by being normal
  • #95
  • Jan 2, 2014 12:29pm Jan 2, 2014 12:29pm
in life, there's no 'whatif'

but looking back these years, sighing over what experienced, i still can't help asking what if

what if at the very begining of my journey, there came an experienced trader telling me to do nothing except watching naked charts for 1000 hours and that'd be it?

what if he told me trading is like any other skill in this world, excellence comes from REAL exercises, tens of thousands of repetition.......

how much time would that save me? save me from all kinds of gimmicks, bulletproof systems, statistics, or EA salesman......

well, 1000 hours, if i spent 1 hour per day guessing next bar on a chart, three years will do! Easy, isn't it?

fortunately, though wasted a lot, i still manage to see this point after all.
  • #96
  • Jan 3, 2014 9:50am Jan 3, 2014 9:50am
from where does this stat " 90% or so of traders lose money on FX" come from ? is it legit ?
  • #97
  • Jan 3, 2014 12:02pm Jan 3, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting mosh11
from where does this stat " 90% or so of traders lose money on FX" come from ? is it legit ?
According to research conducted by PhD student John Forman, only 30 retail traders from a sample of 8,000 were profitable for four consecutive 3-month periods. You can read more about it here and here. Of course that's only the result of one study, and the sample size is far from exhaustive.

Soultrader is widely respected; you can read about his findings here.
  • #98
  • Jan 3, 2014 12:27pm Jan 3, 2014 12:27pm
Thanks for the info
but how can we be sure the brokers have n't cooked the data as they do with prices everyday
it would be in their best interests and they are nt the most trustworthy of people

trading is not so hard - sure it takes a few or more yrs to master - but the market structure and manipulation has been the same for 100's of yrs

go long in an uptrend and short in a downtrend while avoiding the nonsense in the middle
how hard can this be for traders that have traded for 5-10yrs+
or maybe this is the problem as the stats don't give the full picture

its a good job pilots and surgeons don't have the same failure rate
  • #99
  • Jan 3, 2014 1:03pm Jan 3, 2014 1:03pm
i read his blog on his failure story -- a very bad and good example

bad is becoz his story shakes my belief in FX trading, makes me doubtful over my method ---- again, this is a hard way, always in doubt about my way ahead

good is becoz he made another example of mechanic system failure -- which i think retail traders should stay away from

i connect the morale from his story to Rags2Riches thread:

man, just take tens of trades and get rich enough to leave this fucking business asap!

or safer, hundreds of trades, lol

Quoting hanover
{quote} Soultrader is widely respected; you can read about his findings here.
  • #100
  • Jan 3, 2014 2:44pm Jan 3, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting charvo
lol, are you saying that i'm on the right track? thanks if so. i do feel a little excited and for the last few months i have been feeling the storm in my brain and all pieces coming together. i met a trader on FF who implied something that's very thoughts-provoking. he seems telling me that he made much more in ranging market than in trendy days. i figured and figured and finally guess that the only way to get that is to buy when market is DOWN and sell when market is UP (always respect the bigger timeframe's bias if significant). it turned out...
Hello,

Haven't read past this, but if your still trading this way, then very similar to mine.

Random entry, near the ranges works for me to, always take a 2nd position, don't really know when it'll turn back to the other side.

Look into Envelopes, you can set by % your X pips up or down, loads easier to see where the range is.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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