Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 185 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,681
  • Dec 10, 2013 8:02am Dec 10, 2013 8:02am
Hi Alfonso, hi traders,

I found a sell opportunity on EURGBP D1/H1 combo. Please check my case and comment.
The trend is down on W1 there is a valid (as I see) trendline.
D1 the price is under not fresh supply in control so we can sell by the curve.
The trend is not well defined on H1 but we can sell "set and forget" at fresh and original (possibly Im wrong) level.
In this case the RR is 3.

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  • #3,682
  • Dec 10, 2013 10:07am Dec 10, 2013 10:07am
Hey guys, EUR/USD is in a Weekly and is approaching a Daily FRESH supply zone.... Do we need to confirmation or Set&Forget?
  • #3,683
  • Dec 11, 2013 2:54am Dec 11, 2013 2:54am
Quoting lucariga
Hey guys, EUR/USD is in a Weekly and is approaching a Daily FRESH supply zone.... Do we need to confirmation or Set&Forget?
It's against the monthly uptrend, that is, counter-trend. I would wait for some kind of confirmation.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,684
  • Dec 11, 2013 3:39am Dec 11, 2013 3:39am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} It's against the monthly uptrend, that is, counter-trend. I would wait for some kind of confirmation. Alfonso
Perfect, let's wait
  • #3,685
  • Dec 12, 2013 2:27pm Dec 12, 2013 2:27pm
Hello Alfonso,

what app did u use to create this little program? thanks
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  • #3,686
  • Dec 12, 2013 2:58pm Dec 12, 2013 2:58pm
i like to trade supply/demand. I have learnt many things here also. kudos
We Win Some, We Loose Some, But Let your Win Rates be More to be Successful
  • #3,687
  • Dec 13, 2013 12:20am Dec 13, 2013 12:20am
Quoting Carousel46
Hello Alfonso, what app did u use to create this little program? thanks {image}
Hello Carousel,

It's a personal Trade Logger application I am creating for personal use, it's in standby mode because I'm busy with a more important project. It works on desktop but saves all data online, but like I said it's still under development for personal use. It does exactly what I need to log all my SD trades really and since I travel frequently it saves data online so that I can access to it anywhere in the world.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,688
  • Dec 13, 2013 12:42am Dec 13, 2013 12:42am
Hello fellow traders,

This is a reminder that I will be holding a new free live webinar next Monday December 16th. Those who have not joined yet can do it on the link below, you will get the link to join the webinar after you have confirmed your email, right on the last email.

DATE: Monday 16th December 2013
TIME: 1 PM to 2:30 P.M Central European Time | 7 a.m to 8:30 a.m EST

What will this webinar cover?

  1. Trading supply and demand with the bigger timeframes, trading with the trend
  2. Questions and Answers

If you haven't previously joined the free webinars, fill out the next form and you will receive the link to join after you confirm your email address. If you have already done that in the post, you should have received and email already.

LINK TO JOIN FREE WEBINARS: http://www.set-and-forget.com/free_webinars

Have a great day!
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,689
  • Dec 13, 2013 1:06am Dec 13, 2013 1:06am
Find below a few trades where I got triggered lately, I am not publishing them on Forex Factory but on the private forum which is where they belong to. They were not been posted here "before they happened" like before, but they were posted on www.set-and-forget.com supply and demand community.

The reasoning for these trades follow the rules exactly described on FF's 1st post. Out of the 4 trades, 3 are being winners and 1 was a loss by 2 pips (GBPJPY).

  1. AUDCAD H4 short, MN, WK, D1 and H4 are down
  2. CHFJPY, EURJPY and GBJPY broke above recent Monthly supply. There is only one thing we can do here. Similar setup to the last free webinars where we covered the GBPJPY trade at the bottom which nice pips before being trailed stopped out for 400+ pips
  3. GBPJPY attachments has been a loss by 2 pips only once the wiggle room has been subtracted

Not all can be winners (GBPJPY was a loss), there are and there WILL BE MANY losses always, losses are just part of the game. I see losses like an investment on a business, without them it's impossible to have stock to sell. Once the losses are accepted, the pathway to becoming consistent profitable trader is paved.

Have a great day!
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,690
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:35am Dec 13, 2013 4:35am
Hi Alfonso and everyone.

I have two questions?

1. Is it advisable to draw your own support asnd demand levels other than those drawn by rectangle reader ( blue ( red/maroon)?. I notice that sometimes when I draw my own levels, I seem to lose out. Is there any guideline for drawing your own demand and supply zone?

2. Say the market is in an up direction, in order to avoid just putting, say sell limits on supply zone, as might not know if price can head north strongly ( piecing the suplly zone), when price reaches/about to reach the proximal line ( adjusted for spread and entry padding),assuming that I trade on 1 hour TF and use direction of daily chart, I draw a vertical line on the 1 hour candle and go down to 5 min chart. In the 5 min chart I wait for prices ( fractals) to form lower highs before getting into an entry.

Im not sure if you have a better way or entering a trade ( confirmation) rather that putting a sell/buy limit, as I fear that, what will happen if price doesn't reverse?

Thank You.
Abzozo
  • #3,691
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:48am Dec 13, 2013 4:48am
Quoting panoramia
Find below a few trades where I got triggered lately, I am not publishing them on Forex Factory but on the private forum which is where they belong to. They were not been posted here "before they happened" like before, but they were posted on www.set-and-forget.com supply and demand community. The reasoning for these trades follow the rules exactly described on FF's 1st post. Out of the 4 trades, 3 are being winners and 1 was a loss by 2 pips (GBPJPY). AUDCAD H4 short, MN, WK, D1 and H4 are down CHFJPY, EURJPY and GBJPY broke above recent...
Nice trades...

Which was your criteria to draw that grey 167.720 4H GBP/JPY demand zone?

The only thing I can see Is a weekly high, but no CP pattern or any kind of candle formation that make me think of a strong demand area....

I can see a couple of CP patterns a bit higher (the 2 ellipses drawn on the image below) that would had been loosers...
Have you traded those CP patterns? If you didn't, can you explain why?

For me the real demand zone is the one at 165.870

Thanks in advance for your efforts

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  • #3,692
  • Dec 13, 2013 6:16am Dec 13, 2013 6:16am
Quoting lucariga
{quote} Nice trades... Which was your criteria to draw that grey 167.720 4H GBP/JPY demand zone? The only thing I can see Is a weekly high, but no CP pattern or any kind of candle formation that make me think of a strong demand area.... I can see a couple of CP patterns a bit higher (the 2 ellipses drawn on the image below) that would had been loosers... Have you traded those CP patterns? If you didn't, can you explain why? For me the real demand zone is the one at 165.870 Thanks in advance for your efforts {image}
Hi there!

The GBJPY had a valid ascending H4 TL, that H4 demand was at a confluence with previous last week high and MN supply broken, I want to buy all valid levels of demand. It's a valid H4 CP demand, the lower H4 demand is algo good. The D1 is UP, the MN is up.


The 2 ellipses you drew are NOT CP patterns, single doji as a base, it's one of the rules for CP patterns.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,693
  • Edited 6:44am Dec 13, 2013 6:31am | Edited 6:44am
Quoting Abzozo1
Hi Alfonso and everyone. I have two questions? 1. Is it advisable to draw your own support and demand levels other than those drawn by rectangle reader ( blue ( red/maroon)?. I notice that sometimes when I draw my own levels, I seem to lose out. Is there any guideline for drawing your own demand and supply zone?
Hey Abzozo!
There are strict rules as to how to draw levels and which ones to take. The automatic levels work nice but you have to know when and why they are drawn incorrectly. That takes time and lots of screen time, hundreds if not thousands of hours, like on any other field in life, experience. There are some webinars that talk about it (you have to watch them, but I can't tell you which ones) that show how to do it. There is a specific video on that matter but it belongs to the set-and-forget.com community only, its a private one.

Quote
2. Say the market is in an up direction, in order to avoid just putting, say sell limits on supply zone, as might not know if price can head north strongly ( piercing the supply zone), when price reaches/about to reach the proximal line ( adjusted for spread and entry padding),assuming that I trade on 1 hour TF and use direction of daily chart, I draw a vertical line on the 1 hour candle and go down to 5 min chart. In the 5 min chart I wait for prices ( fractals) to form lower highs before getting into an entry.

I never use a timeframe lower than H1. In order to make such a decision and process, you need to make HUNDREDS of tests and get rules out of it, don't do things JUST because they look logical. The markets area NOT logical. If using lower timeframes like M15 or M5, you will have to spend the rest of your life in front of the computer like a zombie. I am not going to do that, I want to have a life

Do not go counter trend as a beginner or even advanced trader, they are not as higher odds as trading with the trend

Quote
Im not sure if you have a better way or entering a trade ( confirmation) rather that putting a sell/buy limit, as I fear that, what will happen if price doesn't reverse? Thank You. Abzozo

I always use set and forget and let the trades do what they have to do, confirmation in certain cases. Fear takes control and will not allow you to make the right decisions, that can only be solved gaining confidence backtesting for months, as explained on the first post.

Fear, fear, fear, that's because you have no confidence. You have to work on that, you have to do your homework, neither me nor anybody else can do that for you sorry! It's as simple as that.

You asked: "What will happen if price doesn't reverse?
My answer: You will miss the trade Because you were afraid. You first need to control your emotions, then you will become a trader little by little. IF you set a limit order and you lose, then what's the problem? You will have THOUSANDS of losses in your trading career, it's part of the game. Once you accept the losses, you will be slowly paving your way to becoming a trader.

Backtest, backtest, backtest! Make backtesting part of your daily routine FOR MONTHS. You can't expect to become a trader in 2 weeks or 2 months or 1 year the same way you can't become a proficient doctor, you need a lot of hard work and confidence, only gained through experience. Backtesting will speed it up 10000% fold!

Hope that helped Abzozo!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,694
  • Dec 13, 2013 6:52am Dec 13, 2013 6:52am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} it's one of the rules for CP patterns. Alfonso
Thanks for your reply. Where can i find CP rules?
  • #3,695
  • Dec 13, 2013 7:56am Dec 13, 2013 7:56am
Quoting lucariga
{quote} Thanks for your reply. Where can i find CP rules?
They are scattered throughout the forum, I didn't have time to put them on the 1st post yet, sorry

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,696
  • Dec 13, 2013 1:00pm Dec 13, 2013 1:00pm
I've been working several hours a day with ForexTester for the past week or so. It's revealed clearly why I've been so frustrated. I'm experiencing a win rate of roughly 7-10%. Before starting with ForexTester, I spent several weeks creating a written plan based on post #1. I haven't changed anything to the best of my knowledge, just put it all in my own words and organized in a way I understand it best. What I'm trying to say is I haven't approached this recklessly or unprofessionally. I'm going through the charts as closely as possible to how Alonso demonstrated in a recent video.

So, my question to anyone who has been in my shoes: is there a best place to start looking for where I'm making mistakes. I'd post a bunch of backtest screen shots but I don't want to clutter up the thread. I don't feel like any further work with ForexTester would be fruitful until I have some kind of clue where I'm going wrong. Naturally I've reviewed these backtesting trades, and I don't see that I'm just stupidly breaking the rules.

Thanks for any advice.
  • #3,697
  • Edited 2:37pm Dec 13, 2013 2:12pm | Edited 2:37pm
Quoting coolmoss
I've been working several hours a day with ForexTester for the past week or so. It's revealed clearly why I've been so frustrated. I'm experiencing a win rate of roughly 7-10%. Before starting with ForexTester, I spent several weeks creating a written plan based on post #1. I haven't changed anything to the best of my knowledge, just put it all in my own words and organized in a way I understand it best. What I'm trying to say is I haven't approached this recklessly or unprofessionally. I'm going through the charts as closely as possible to how...
Difficult to tell you my friend... Reading the rules does not entitle anybody to do things correctly, you know what I mean. Hundreds of hours of screentime are needed. You should not stop using Forex Tester even with such a low success ratio.

Can you post please 2 of your trades with a clear and detailed explanation of why you took those trades?

  1. Curve TF
  2. Entry TF
  3. If you used any TL
  4. Direction, etc
  5. All the reasons why you took them with an explanation on the charts as well

Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,698
  • Dec 13, 2013 3:18pm Dec 13, 2013 3:18pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} . Can you post please 2 of your trades
Thank you for looking. Here is the first example, I'll probably not get to next example until tomorrow, just plum fried

The strange thing about my difficulties is that it's not like I'm trying to take tons of trades willy nilly. This latest round of testing on the EURUSD I started Jan 2005, and the first trade I was able to take was in April of 2006. Maybe I'm fooling myself but I've tried to be both careful and intelligent. I've been following Sam Seidens videos for years, have attended live seminars with Sam, and have tried to figure out this S&D stuff for a looooooong time. I say this only so you understand it's not like I'm just rushing into this without adequate knowledge, skill, and experience.

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  • #3,699
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:43pm Dec 13, 2013 4:43pm
Quoting coolmoss
{quote} Thank you for looking. Here is the first example, I'll probably not get to next example until tomorrow, just plum fried The strange thing about my difficulties is that it's not like I'm trying to take tons of trades willy nilly. This latest round of testing on the EURUSD I started Jan 2005, and the first trade I was able to take was in April of 2006. Maybe I'm fooling myself but I've tried to be both careful and intelligent. I've been following Sam Seidens videos for years, have attended live seminars with Sam, and have tried to figure...
Hey there!

I took a look at your loss, to me there was no trade there for several reasons:

  1. Weekly trend was broken, WK was not in a downtrend any more, WK descending TL broken
  2. One weekly supply had been removed already as well
  3. In such a situation, taking a H4 short is counter-trend
  4. H4 ascending TL was being respected. I would have waited at least for the TL to be broken solidly before you short, you were going against the WK trend
  5. It's true that you were high in the curve, but you were going against the WK trend
  6. In fact there were 2 nice H4 long trades on the way up AFTER the WK descending TL was broken, see the second attachment, levels in blue

Do this please, concentrate on CLEAR levels that go with the trend, NEVER against the trend. Do not try to outsmart the markets.

I mean, if you curve timeframe is up, go long... If you are too high, don't do anything and either wait for HTF supply to be removed or wait for a CLEAR level of supply in a new trend down on your entry TF. In this trade for example, you should have waited for a) H4 TL to be solidly broken to the sell side b) and then a brand new level of supply after the H4 TL was solidly broken..... OR WK supply to be taken out to keep on selling.

You wanted to go short against the WK and H4 trend. Avoid counter-trend on your tests and you will see a HUGE difference.

If it took you a more than a year to take a trade, you are doing something wrong, that's impossible! You must be over-analysing, and in this case once you pull the trigger you do it counter-trend? You know what I mean. Think about it!

Hope that helps!
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,700
  • Dec 13, 2013 5:25pm Dec 13, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hey there! I took a look at your loss, to me there was no trade there for several reasons:
Thanks very much for your comments. I really do appreciate your patience. At the moment I'm feeling totally lost. (not to mention a bit crushed, LOL). Right now I feel an awful lot like the practice I'm doing is just repeating mistakes. I don't feel like I'm learning anything, I can't shift out of the perception I'm stuck in.

Anyway, I'm going to try and absorb what you've stated, practice at least an hour a day for the next week, and come back with the results. To help start, is the absorbed weekly supply level you mentioned what I have marked below?

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