Trading using two pivots

Nice job,

on what timeframe do you look for the support and resistance lines? Do you draw the s/r lines in the same timeframe you trade, or only in higher timeframes?
Thanks.

G.Grillz

I'm not sure I understand your question leting people judge on those S%R....not sure what to say, man.

The s/r are drawn by me so the members could not agree with their positioning, the indicator it's not drawing them automatically, it only colors the zones, that's all. And since I've develop this method, reducing risk when the price it's inside the neutral bias it'a a very big breakthrough for me and I think will help people to see the future in price more clearly. And anyone is expected to post on the positioning of those s/r, did I made any topic setups so anyone couldn't do that, cause if I did - I will remove any restrictional acces so can anyone freely post on this topic.

I will try to cover Apple and other stocks and even indexes as soon as possbible, promiss.

Thank you


Forex Lion

The s/r aka pivots are drawn in the current timeframe in which is made the analysis, daily in daily and so on. I can go up and down in the time-frames, the principle are the same, of cours in 1min time frame the analysis need to be done very fast cause there, a 5 pips profit can be a common reward. Yeah, it is very easy to draw them, only sometimes can be tricky to draw one of them but if you cannot do that, I recommand you to go to another time frame or pair and so on, until you get some experience.

Thank you too

Forex: GBP/USD, short term outlook (4h time frame)

Upside potential

The price hit the temporary high, as I've mentioned in upside potential section of the post no. #39. Now, after adjusting the Fibonacci retrace, the situation in this case is, as it follows: even the price has decreased midly the pair it stays in upside bias, because it is situated over the pivot 1.6257. Therefore, the target for the long positions should be, for starters, the fresh-formed temporary high of 1.64464, about 130 pips higher from this level.

Note that the price can easily fall, consolidating in a large range, as long as the price doesn't not break the 1.6257 level, maintaining the upside potential intact, as the purple arrow suggest.



Downside potential

As long as the pivot level of 1.6257 remains intact the potential for downside movements remains weak and risky. If the price breaks the 1.6257, after redrawing the Fibonacci retrace, because the price has made a new temporary high (1.64646), the first target should be 1.62013, which represents the 38.2 Fibonacci retrace measured from 1.57753 to 1.64646. Even so, the amount of risk for this scenario should be as low, because entering in the neutral bias zone can generate chaotic downside movements.

Forex: GBP/USD, short term outlook (4h time frame)

Upside potential

As I've said earlier in the post #44, as long as the price stays over the 1.6257 pivot the pair is keen to grow. The pair felt and almost closed under the pivot but rejected strongly, after the bearish hammer I was almost strong conviction that the pair will grow. But, I had to take some precautions: I placed the buy stop just above the peak of 1.63479, but it was open almost 2 pips higher, which is ok, given the volatility that came after. S/L was situated on 1.6257 (79 pips) versus a 115.5 pips for T/P. T/P was hit quickly after that.



Now, let's back to our analysis; after adjusting the Fibonacci retrace, note that the pair rejcted strongly after making a new temporary high on 1.64835 level, which, in case of activating our pending stop just above the 1.63888, I had put it on 1.63918 because I am a little busy today, but you can wait patiently for the candle to close above 1.63888, for a more cautious approach. Remember that safety is the mother of the investments!



Downside potential

The downside potential will be zero towards limited if the price cannot close bellow the 1.6257 level, without closing bellow this level, any short trades could be easily lost. Wait for close bellow that level and put few times decreased lot on the trade, for targeting 1.6213, which is the 38.2 Fibonacci retrace measured from 1.57753 to 1.64835. On this scenario, I will abstain myself puting a sell stop, wait patiently if you are keen to enter short. Stops on this scenario, if it will develop need to be just few pips above 1.6257 level.

Forex: GBP/USD, short term outlook (4h time frame)

Quick update

The coordinates established in the last intervention remain intact, the upside potential it is still present, at the moment. Note that the decrease in price was limited as I had mentioned in the last post from the downside potential section. Nothing changed so far, the decrease in price was erratic and unimportant, no pivots were invalidated. However, for the upside to have a storng valid confirmation, wait patiently for the candle to close above 1.63888. Personally, I have a long position because of the spike over 1.63888, but the price has been retreating about 60 pips, we'll see how it plays.



And for the downside, wait for closing bellow 1.6257. For further understanding, re-read the last post indications, post no.#45.

Forex: GBP/USD, short term outlook (4h time frame)

Quick update

As I've mentioned few times earlier, the price decrease in the upside bias can be shallow and deceptive. The proof of this statement is in the reaction which followed, on this pair. After an erratic downside movement, the price absolutely exploded to the upside, reaching easily the 1.64835 (previous temporary high), going to a maximum of 1.65848 (101.3 pips higher than the previous high).



Given the current chart changes, in the next intervention I will try to make a full analysis on this pair, with possible developments to the upside area and to the downside when is appropriate.

Oh dear, just you posting I'm afraid :-(

dannyrose

That is not an issue for me; is about getting disciplined to a higher degree and help others, if I can. The topic is relatively new and the approach, I admit - it's a little odd for many others - there is no indicators, just two horizontal lines and a Fibonacci. I was hoping to a more constructive post, mate. Ideas, opinions, anything?

Forex: GBP/USD, short term outlook (4h time frame)

Upside potential

Currently, the price is situated in the upside bias, over the 1.6257 short term pivot. We are witnessing a an aggressive downside movement, you should not panic and sell immediately, because in the upside bias, in theory, downside movements should be short-lived. Not to understand that I recommend entering now in a market buy - it is not the case. Wait for closing above 1.64731 level for more safe approach. I put myself a pending around that number, with target on the temporary high of 1.66025 and stop-loss on the pivot level (1.6257) and I will wait. You can check my pending orders in the new-added trade explorer, on the top of this topic. We'll see how it will play.



Downside potential

The current price decrease could mean, eventually, that the trend has at least been diminished and is ready for a correction. If the price breaks bellow the pivot level from 1.6257, the bias will change into neutral and the price could fall even deeper to 1.61532 (which is 38.2 Fibonacci retrace measure on 1.54264-1.66025). Notice that I put a sell pending too, with a 10 times less lot size than usually, under the spike which stand just over the pivot of 1.6257, for a more cautious trade approach. I am not sure how the expected correction will look like and I don't take any additional risks, the market has it's surprises, anyway.

Forex: EUR/USD, short term outlook (4h time frame)

Upside potential

Currently, the price it's in an upside bias, because of it's location over the 1.3621 pivot level. But we are far from clarity, from this point of view. The price has just broke down the same pivot in an aggressive movement from 1.38924 to 1.35709 (321.5 pips), which can be, as well, the start of a major correction or even more, a trend reversal. That's why, even I put a pending buy stop on this pair, but on a higher level (1.38216), the situation is not clear. So, my position is just on the zone which caused some trouble to enthusiastic-top-buyers so when the price reach that some, if it will do it, there will be enough steam to push it to the temporary top of 1.38924. You can check my pending trade in the trade explorer, on the top of this topic.



Downside potential

In order that price to fall we need another violation of the 1.3621 pivot level - even more, from my point of view, I think it's safe if we expect the price to fall under the 1.35709 level and only then to enter short. That's why I have enter sell stop on that level, targeting about 20 pips - 1.3549, to be more specified (which is the 38.2 Fibonacci retrace measured on the movement 1.29927-1.38924).



Note: the arrows drawn in the pictures serve only as a guide, does not mean that the price will develop in that manner, even though sometimes it does like that.

Forex: GBP/JPY, short term outlook (4h time frame)

Upside potential

This is pair is currently in an upside bias, with the price situated over the 169.68 pivot level. Given the current pair's configuration we would be tempted to enter long already but caution first - only a closed candle on the zone marked with a coral ellipse would have a better chance to develop into a profitable trade. Why's that? Pertinent question. Because if you look on the picture/chart you'll see a little pressure zone, where the price tried to push higher but failed. So, I took a pending buy stop over there targeting the temporary top of 174.82 (about 245 pips).



Downside potential

On the downside area, when the price will close under the 169.68 pivot level, you should enter short in a safety manner. I have put a short already on the pivot, because I am not on the computer all day long but it is high recommendable to wait for the closing candle bellow 169.68, targeting 167.135 (about 250 pips), with the stop-loss protection situated on the coral zone mentioned in the upside potential section. Any shorts until confirmation would be short-lived and could even generate losses.



Note: The arrows drawn in the pictures serve only as a guidance, does not mean that the price will develop in that manner, even though sometimes it does like that. Don't get fooled by that!

Forex: GBP/JPY, trade briefing (4h time frame)

The pair just confirmed the upside scenario by breaking over the mini-resistance area, marked with coral ellipse. My trade has the parameters as it follows, as you can see in my trade explorer: stop-loss is placed on the pivot of 169.68 (267.1 pips) and the target will be, as I've already said in the previous post, on the upside potential section, the temporary top of the 174.82 (246.9 pips).

Forex: EUR/USD, trade briefing (4h time frame)

The pair is about to confirm it's downside intentions, if it goes below temporary minim of 1.35709, but even so the movement is limited to hit only 1.35487 (about 20 pips) which represents the 38.2 Fibonacci retrace measured on the movement 1.29927-1.38924, after that will wait to see how the price will develop and we'll enter once again if it's the case. Carefully with the traded lots because we are only in the neutral bias situation and risk should be minimum.

Forex: GBP/USD, trade briefing (4h time frame)

After closing over the obstacle drawn with yellow rectangle, I've entered buy having the S/L on the pivot of 1.6257 and targeting the temporary maximum of 1.66025, as you can see in the image bellow.

Forex: EUR/USD, trade briefing (4h time frame)

The trade confirmed by price decreasing under the temporary low of 1.35709 but even so didn't worked out well; the price has approached very close to the target and rebounded quite violently and took a loss of 50.7 pips (S/L).

Forex: USD/CAD, trade briefing (weekly time frame)

The trade was confirmed by price, by closing above 1.0674 pivot level and the close above the yellow rectangle area, which was a very tricky resistance area, as you can easily see in the past. That been said, I expect the price to go to 1.12342 (which is the 50.0 Fibonacci retrace from the 1.30622-0.94063) over 330 pips target and having a stop loss of about 220 pips, just on the pivot level which separates the upside from neutral bias zone.

Forex: AUD/USD, trade briefing (4h time frame)

The pair remained in a downside bias, by being situated under the 0.9160 pivot level. After apparently chaotic swings, the price has continued to go even further down. I've expected the break under the pink rectangle area for a safer short position, targeting the 127.2 Fibonacci level from the downside movement 0.97568-0.88204, which is 0.85657 level. Because the position was opened on that level, the stop-loss was shortened, has been established on the temporary high of 0.90861.

Forex: GBP/USD, trade briefing (4h time frame)

The waiting on this trade was finally fructified, after almost 13 days with ups and downs.

The trade which I took was based on the two important complementary factors:

1. The price was situated in an upside bias, by positioning itself over the pivot level of 1.6257 - the initial positioning and secondly

2. After that the price has rise significantly and closed over the mini-resistance area (drawn with a yellow rectangle), which ultimately has confirmed the initial positioning of the price in the upside bias and has triggered the buy position.

The outcome was a nice profit of nearly 130 pips. (129.4 pips exactly). The risk-reward ratio wasn't very good, only 0.58 but was worth it.

Forex: GBP/JPY, trade briefing (4h time frame)

Even if the pair confirmed it's entry by closing over the mini-resistance area (drawn with a yellow rectangle), after positioning over the 169.68 pivot - the trade did not resist and took a 267.1 pips loss, after a major pullback. Looks like the mini-resistance was a fake and we'll wait for further price development to find a better one for re-entering long, if the price positioning in the upside area (green zone) remain valid.

Forex: GBP/JPY, trade briefing (4h time frame)

The price has continued to develop and soon after the last trade made a new setup. The price is positioned over the 169.68 pivot and closed over the new-formed the mini-resistance area (drawn in gold) and triggered a buy transaction as it follows:

entry: 173.108
s/l: 169.68
t/p: 174.82

The s/l is placed just on the 169.68 pivot and the t/p on the temporary high of 174.82. Also, those who haven't got the chance to enter in the long transaction can now, it's not late - it's even better because they will have about 100 additional pips on target, because of it's latest decrease in price. The conservative ones could put a pending stop on the 173.108, if they have some degree of uncertainty related to this possible price development scenario.