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Amyc Trade Journal

EU weekly

I like shorts off a higher high this week.
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Hi, Amy

Euro hit its 3-qtrly high at 3810 and has come down sharply after some congestions at the high, and is now just hanging below 3-mthly midpoint, at the lower end of the 3-weekly range low. This quarter's 3-qtrly midpoint is at 3327 but I would rather it not go down that far away. I am not too sure how I should interpret this? Do you think it's still on track to its next 3-yrly high? The weekly bar/candle looks ominous. With this year still not yet closed, I can't get next year's levels. Please could you share your thoughts on it?

Thanks.
Quoting Ss7225
Hi, Amy Euro hit its 3-qtrly high at 3810 and has come down sharply after some congestions at the high, and is now just hanging below 3-mthly midpoint, at the lower end of the 3-weekly range low. This quarter's 3-qtrly midpoint is at 3327 but I would rather it not go down that far away. I am not too sure how I should interpret this? Do you think it's still on track to its next 3-yrly high? The weekly bar/candle looks ominous. With this year still not yet closed, I can't get next year's levels. Please could you share your thoughts on it? Thanks.
Long term I am still confident the euro is bullish. It is not time to buy yet though, the current bearishness should last until approx 21 November.
eu 140
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Quoting Ss7225
With this year still not yet closed, I can't get next year's levels. Please could you share your thoughts on it? Thanks.

Here is the monthly chart for the euro with next years levels on it.

My thoughts are the same as always, bullish. I will go as far to say I think price is in a 10 year uptrend starting from the June 2010 lows.
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EU 140
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I think EU will probably form a top within the next 24hrs. 1.3780 looks like a good spot to start looking at shorts.
This shouldn't be a large down move though, around 1.35ish will probably cap it. Any down move is counter trend to the larger upward move that should continue on till the end of January 2014.
160
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Quoting amyc
160 {image}
160 target, amy?

how are you/...long time

US fiscal deal/mess looks supportive
Quoting roro53
{quote} 160 target, amy? how are you/...long time US fiscal deal/mess looks supportive

160 pip range bars. target is around 1.35.

I'm doing well, how are things going for you?

I can't really comment on any fundamentals, I don't follow them very closely.
Hi, Amy

Good to see your new posts. Do you follow AUD?

Thanks
Quoting Ss7225
Hi, Amy Good to see your new posts. Do you follow AUD? Thanks

au monthly

should continue down to 85c in the new year. That would complete the move from 3 year highs in July 11 to 3 year lows.

overall though I think au will remain bearish until approx 2016.
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Quoting amyc
{quote} 160 pip range bars. target is around 1.35. I'm doing well, how are things going for you? I can't really comment on any fundamentals, I don't follow them very closely.
got it and some from your call the other day.. read your 1.35 target. thx........good . trading equity indexes mostly since last summer off the FED's MBS settlement dates. got burned yesterday when the PDs parked the cash instead of deploying it. can't be right all the time.
Quoting roro53
{quote} got it and some from your call the other day.. read your 1.35 target. thx........good . trading equity indexes mostly since last summer off the FED's MBS settlement dates. got burned yesterday when the PDs parked the cash instead of deploying it. can't be right all the time.
I think equities might be weak into later Q1, don't quote me on that though.
Quoting amyc
{quote} I think equities might be weak into later Q1, don't quote me on that though.
usually the MBS settlements run between $50 to 70 billion per mo as part of QE (POMOs another $45 B on top) and primary dealers take the cash from the FED over a 10 day period mid month to markup and distribute so it has been a very nice run overall

who knows but BOJ is printing at $80B per mo and the FED may have a difficult time with the taper...someone has to buy the bonds, if not the FED then who?

nice call on the aud/usd short from way back....i remember that
Quoting roro53
{quote} usually the MBS settlements run between $50 to 70 billion per mo as part of QE (POMOs another $45 B on top) and primary dealers take the cash from the FED over a 10 day period mid month to markup and distribute so it has been a very nice run overall who knows but BOJ is printing at $80B per mo and the FED may have a difficult time with the taper...someone has to buy the bonds, if not the FED then who? nice call on the aud/usd short from way back....i remember that

I'm not sure if the fed will taper anytime soon, cycles point to a top in the eurusd in august 2014. There should also be a very bearish patch in February so maybe something will happen there but i see it making new highs after that.
Quoting amyc
{quote} I'm not sure if the fed will taper anytime soon, cycles point to a top in the eurusd in august 2014. There should also be a very bearish patch in February so maybe something will happen there but i see it making new highs after that.
agree

and, cannot see the fiscal (so called) deal as a positive for the USD

february.......favorite month of the calender

thx amy.
1.3723 would be a nice top to this up move since the 20th. If so price should head down until around the 8/1.

That is the ideal setup, let's see how it plays out.
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Quoting amyc
1.3723 would be a nice top to this up move since the 20th. If so price should head down until around the 8/1. That is the ideal setup, let's see how it plays out. {image}
hi

best for 2014. Happy New Year

what do you mean by 8/1?
Quoting roro53
{quote} hi best for 2014. Happy New Year what do you mean by 8/1?
Hi Roro

Happy new year to you as well.

8/1 is 8th January
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