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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #44,061
  • Dec 12, 2013 10:17am Dec 12, 2013 10:17am
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi zoomzoom I only hope I have helped in a positive way, this is just part of my curve I am also working my way through on my journey, one thing you said at the end of your post about traps/pigs/ducks, again this is just my interpretation of what is written here within this great thread, in my view these are very different animals with very different habitats both in the real world and as far as the market is concerned…. Pigs… get comfortable within their surroundings and eat all the feed that is freely given eventually ending in their being...
Hi Phil,

You have reenforced my understanding of this section of trading. More dots are connected and picture becomes clearer. I like your summary of the discussion. Few words but seem to say it all. I'll go on my trading journey again, the destination seems within reach. Will give you a shout if I encounter any problems. Good luck to you too, and thanks for your time. a pray for your success, and good health to Fti.

Regards,
zz

Everytime I reread the first 200 pages of this thread, there seems to be something new.
  • #44,062
  • Dec 14, 2013 12:39am Dec 14, 2013 12:39am
Quoting zoomzoom
Hi anybody, Just to make sure what I believe is right, please anybody read this before I hardwire it into my brain. All imput welcome, the more outrages the better, newbees and gurus. The Counter Impulse Wave: The Counter Impulse Wave is the most damaging to most traders’ books due to its sudden change in direction and volatility. It requires the trader to make quick decision, usually to cut his losses and square his positions. There is very little time to think due to the unexpected changed in direction of the market which requires implementing...
Hi Zoomzoom
I think that Before Thinking of a counter trend need to understand impulse wave.
For me it is tricky to find the impulse wave.
the counter trend is even more trickier.
One cant ever know how far it will go and when it will stop and maybe reverse.
One thing to add is when you flip you have to go up on sqew in order to recover
your previous loss from the impulse wave/ Since you dont know how long it will stay it can be very short
and maybe you will have to flip for the first time.
I think when one flip it means that his first analysis maybe was wrong and after the flip one
have to make new plans for battle.
For me i never FLIP because of all what i stated above i try to take out last attack and wait may be give the position to be drawn in the water till the tend will come again.
I try to be with daily trend when i got scout out.
I am still learning i i have very bad days too .
It is easier for me to ride losses then profits. When profit come it is always straggling to take it or leave it a little more.
This is my learning curve.
The thing is that i cannot babysit my trades because of the day job
I try to accommodate FTI way to my style of living ( Means smaller size positions vs longer time frames)
Still searching for the way that it will work for me
REgards
And have a nice weekend
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #44,063
  • Dec 14, 2013 6:36am Dec 14, 2013 6:36am
yumm.. skew.

i do like a good skewer. must get the ingredients in the right order!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: super_skewer_gallery_original_022.jpg Size: 181 KB
  • #44,064
  • Dec 14, 2013 7:05am Dec 14, 2013 7:05am
Quoting -Michael-
{quote} Hi Zoomzoom I think that Before Thinking of a counter trend need to understand impulse wave. For me it is tricky to find the impulse wave. the counter trend is even more trickier. One cant ever know how far it will go and when it will stop and maybe reverse. One thing to add is when you flip you have to go up on sqew in order to recover your previous loss from the impulse wave/ Since you dont know how long it will stay it can be very short and maybe you will have to flip for the first time. I think when one flip it means that his first analysis...
Hi Michael,

Thank you so much for your input. Most of your comment is totally true for me, I've also the same problem in my learning curve. I think I understand most of what is written in Fti's thread, but the problem arises when I apply them to live trading. When Market Structure, Money Management, Risk Control, Technical Analysis, Price Action, Dancing with the Market and the "You" and....all come together that's when the problem starts. Lean slightly to one side and the mind becomes too rigid, not nimble enough to catch the sudden change in bias. Over concentrate, and I end up with a narrow view of the perspective of the market...could end up finding myself on the wrong side of trend.

I know Fti has given us all the knowledge here, and everytime I reread the thread, I said to myself this time I got it......then I trade and do things that I sometimes cannot understand why my book is still showing negative. Then I go back and reread and ......

This seems to be the common problem among most of us.....here's a long quote of a discussion of the problem some time back.

Quote:
“I know that at all times we should be following the trend. That is number 1 rule. Don't trade against the trend.
I have always taken that to mean we should look to the daily charts and judge from the overall picture where price is going. If it is making higher highs and higher lows then we are in an uptrend. Lower lows and lower highs then we are in a downtrend.

But since the daily is so far removed from 5 min time frame I have been thinking lately you might have meant we should find something on the daily charts with an immediate up or down push/leg and take that as the current direction of price. This in turn makes a nice trend formation on the hourly. And we use the 5 min for entry.”

Reply by Phil: The post is not directed at me but I like to share my view and learn. U don't have to always trade with the daily trend. U can trade current trend. If the current trend is counter daily or hourly trend, should I be betting big, normal or small? Should I hit n run or should I build a position? Do I know where the Original trend may enforce? How much time do I have before the original trend may enforce? Then if I think it's worth the risk.. Then I try.. if my try is good. And hourly trend is turning to my favor.. then try a bit more.. but make sure I’m untouchable.. fti repeated this many times..

Reply by Fti: nonono, your mind not in good state. You talk rigid.

rule 1 is preservation of capital.
rule 2 is preservation of capital.
rule 3 is not to forget rule 1

(Seems like these are the only rules in trading).

Don’t trade against the trend is a process of mindset, is stupid to trade against the trend.
The trend is alive, it can change. Ability adjusts to change to terrain helps keep you alive.
Make rules and you die rigid.

Reply by Culp:let me try explain a bit. There is daily trend, 4 hourly, hourly, half hourly, 5 min. There trends within trends. Is a subjective choice as to define a trend. In textbooks persistent rise or persistent fall is what is a trend. Should depend on pain threshold, capital base and value at risk in retail trading.
If you'll determine trend firsthand, then will create rigid mind. Let the choices develop as your position progresses. Just keep the risk under very tight control and the trend will tell you in the face whether it is a trend or not.

Reply by Fti: nonono
You also wrong.
There no such thing as daily trend hourly trend...........Is either they in line or out of line with trend.
Your trend read is dependent on what your adopted time frame.
Your pain threshold is reflected in your mm.Your analysis of what’s happening is dependent on how much you had developed ability to focus on.
If your analysis focus is only abc, then that may be only part of the picture.
Stuff gets added and stuff gets retarded.
I have very wide market focus. So things keep getting inputed into the analysis as it comes on stream.
Without market on hands experience, some stuff may be meaningless to one, but may be what’s driving market.
You approaching the picture 1 track mind.

i see all at once.
You see only a little, and have to make decisions on the little that you see.
But of course is not as easy as just open eyes wider.
You need learn from markets, market body language if you like. Is a big puzzle board and even i not got a full pic yet.
Worst is our leaders, some CBs are doing double talk and make lots confusion.
When you cannot manage, just create confusion, that was what my middle managers expert in.
And if you fail, just send all the men out advertising & explain how difficult it is.
The strategy is called distraction.
Don’t go on the real issues. If can't shit, talk about the toilet. Maybe is because toilet bowl is too hard.
Good traders learn to do damage control, when positions becomes too unpleasant and without resolution.
May not abandon positions, but is unwise force bias (point of view).
Normally stop digging deeper with keen observation stance is good strategy.
When beginning feel strong resistance/barrier, means there is an impasse.
best way to overcome is to look for common ground (win win passage) navigate it.
It not say if view is right or wrong. Is just says that the positions not seem getting ahead for now.
Try find common ground and trend will be more profitable.
If lose cool, can get painful.

End of quote.

I think I understand but the book says no. So I reread the thread....One day I know I'll be able to do it...just that damn dark spot in my brain....out, out, out.
Regards. Wish you success in your trading.
zz
  • #44,065
  • Dec 14, 2013 7:11am Dec 14, 2013 7:11am
Quoting 4tiger
yumm.. skew. i do like a good skewer. must get the ingredients in the right order! {image}
Hi 4Tiger,

Yummy. I've been trying to do that for years. I think I got the ingredients in the right order, but still the grilling part always come out burnt.

regards, enjoy and thanks.

zz
  • #44,066
  • Dec 14, 2013 7:17am Dec 14, 2013 7:17am
market structure:
Quoting fti
Hi All, ok, leighsww, here goes About market strucuture. You see the brokers are not all bad people out to get everyone. They provide a service of creating a replica model of the interbank mkts for the consumption of the small traders at large. Of course their motivation to do so is profits but nevertheless they provide a service. At the very top of the battlefield command is the Feds. The are the owners of the market. Whatever you may trade its normmally against the USD. (even the crosses.) So in perspective you will always be walking into their...
is about the actual structure, not waves, counter or current.

everyone is on different levels of the learning curve and will need different materials from this thread.. and such information will be more useful to those that need it at that time and level of understanding! if they can find the info that is... lol. like searching for a needle in a haystack.
  • #44,067
  • Dec 14, 2013 8:32am Dec 14, 2013 8:32am
Quoting 4tiger
yumm.. skew. i do like a good skewer. must get the ingredients in the right order! {image}
Look Closer into the grill................

Ingredient are random, but I know what you are trying to say....................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #44,068
  • Dec 14, 2013 8:48am Dec 14, 2013 8:48am
I love these 2 quotes from the Fti's thread:

“Men for the most part err, and are afterwards able to reform. They are distressed in mind and perplexed in their thoughts, and then they arise to vigorous reformation. When things have been evidenced in men's sight, and set forth in their words, then they understand them."

“Thus, when heaven is about to confer a great office on any man, it first exercises his mind with suffering, and his sinews and bones with toil. It exposes his body to hunger, and subjects him to extreme sufferings. It confounds his undertakings. By all these methods it stimulates his mind, hardens his nature, and removes his incompetence."

Give me comfort whenever I read them.

zz
  • #44,069
  • Dec 14, 2013 8:55am Dec 14, 2013 8:55am
Simple RSIOMA system to keep you on the correct side of the Trend..................

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post6559838
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #44,070
  • Dec 14, 2013 9:08am Dec 14, 2013 9:08am
Quoting 4tiger
market structure: {quote} is about the actual structure, not waves, counter or current. everyone is on different levels of the learning curve and will need different materials from this thread.. and such information will be more useful to those that need it at that time and level of understanding! if they can find the info that is... lol. like searching for a needle in a haystack.

hi 4tiger

there is a market structure. tiered banking etc.

AND

there is a market/price structure, banks/brokers have to balance their books.

to me the two are very linked and show in the charts.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #44,071
  • Dec 14, 2013 9:08am Dec 14, 2013 9:08am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Look Closer into the grill................ Ingredient are random, but I know what you are trying to say....................
i'm not trying to say anything.. alien. what am i trying to say?

Quoting forexalien
Simple RSIOMA system to keep you on the correct side of the Trend.................. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post6559838
that's great, but in here, i think we would like to stick to this thread's material, if you understand?

i won't go into your Euro Yen Institute posting stuff from this thread, yeah?

you were already off point with trying to explain this thread's "market structure" with your youtube vid... it was there on page two already, if you read it then you'd know.

if you didn't read it and were trying to post your own views, then you're throwing people off the mark.

if you're here to learn, fine. if you're here to teach like you know it all? then maybe i should tell your daddybear to get a better hold of that leash on his dog.

if you need a RSIOMA system to see the trend???
  • #44,072
  • Dec 14, 2013 9:56am Dec 14, 2013 9:56am
Quoting 4tiger
{quote} i'm not trying to say anything.. alien. what am i trying to say? {quote} that's great, but in here, i think we would like to stick to this thread's material, if you understand? i won't go into your Euro Yen Institute posting stuff from this thread, yeah? you were already off point with trying to explain this thread's "market structure" with your youtube vid... it was there on page two already, if you read it then you'd know. if you didn't read it and were trying to post your own views, then you're throwing people off the mark. if you're...
market structure, market structure , market structure, got it, I was just trying to help................I will back down now................bye
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #44,073
  • Dec 14, 2013 1:03pm Dec 14, 2013 1:03pm
Hi Guys
Since everybody here talking Market Structure
Here is some posts of FTI that explains Market Structure and other staff
Link 1 This one you already quoted
Link 2 Obut october and december
Link 3 Tier 1 (24 hours)
Link 4 InterBank FX
Link 5 All currency traded against USD
Link 6
Link 7
Link 8 Monetary Sructure
Link 9 OTC
Link10 3 Structures
Link 11 Relationship
Link 12 Discussion with Big Boys
Link 13
Link 14 Swap
Link 15 Another OTC
Link 16 Food Chain Pyramid
Link 17 CB
Link 18 Monetary Authorities
Link 19 The Roll
Link 20 OTC
Link 21
Link 22
Link 23 BRIC
Link 24 Explaining of TED video
Link 25
Link 26
Link 27
Link 28 The secrets of the OTC interbank system
Link 29 Dealing Arena
Link 30
And There is many more
Hope you will enjoy and make benefit of this FTI posts
regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #44,074
  • Dec 14, 2013 4:03pm Dec 14, 2013 4:03pm
Quoting 4tiger
yumm.. skew. i do like a good skewer. must get the ingredients in the right order! {image}
Yum! That looks pretty good.
  • #44,075
  • Dec 14, 2013 6:06pm Dec 14, 2013 6:06pm
Quoting -Michael-
Hi Guys Since everybody here talking Market Structure Here is some posts of FTI that explains Market Structure and other staff Link 1 This one you already quoted Link 2 Obut october and december Link 3 Tier 1 (24 hours) .............
..............rl] And There is many more Hope you will enjoy and make benefit of this FTI...
Hi Michael,

Thanks for the links. That should take me a few months to digest.

Regards.

zz
  • #44,076
  • Dec 14, 2013 7:53pm Dec 14, 2013 7:53pm
Quoting -Michael-
Hi Guys Since everybody here talking Market Structure Here is some posts of FTI that explains Market Structure and other staff Link 1 This one you already quoted Link 2 Obut october and december Link 3 Tier 1 (24 hours) Link 4 InterBank FX [url=http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1788279#post1788279]Link...

hi Michael

wow, thanks my friend for all your hard work in digging out all those links. much appreciated .

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #44,077
  • Dec 14, 2013 8:03pm Dec 14, 2013 8:03pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Look Closer into the grill................ Ingredient are random, but I know what you are trying to say....................
i looked closer into the grill and found out that, even though each skewer is different, there is an order to the randomness... the skewers do follow 1 simple rule:
you will not find two of the same ingredients together side by side, the ingredients are always alternated.

did the forex charts look like a random mess to me the first time i laid eyes on them?
did i use technical analysis to try and make sense of it all?
and then taking away the TA did the graphs still look like a mess?
yes, yes, and yes.

i'm still learning here...

Quoting forexalien
{quote} market structure, market structure , market structure, got it, I was just trying to help................I will back down now................bye
hey alien, you're fun to talk to... it's just that when it comes to trading, we're coming from different schools. u know what i mean?

i like your kind, i thought Slaughterhouse Five by Kurt Vonnegut was pretty deep
  • #44,078
  • Dec 14, 2013 10:21pm Dec 14, 2013 10:21pm
Quoting zoomzoom
{quote} Hi Michael, Thanks for the links. That should take me a few months to digest. Regards. zz
Quoting phil13
{quote} hi Michael wow, thanks my friend for all your hard work in digging out all those links. much appreciated . regards Phil.
No Problem Friends
When i find them i also learn
So it is win win
Regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #44,079
  • Dec 15, 2013 3:04am Dec 15, 2013 3:04am
Quoting -Michael-
Hi Guys Since everybody here talking Market Structure Here is some posts of FTI that explains Market Structure and other staff Link 1 This one you already quoted Link 2 Obut october and december Link 3 Tier 1 (24 hours) Link 4 InterBank FX [url=http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1788279#post1788279]Link...

Michael

impressive ..... as usual .... sharing is caring ....
  • #44,080
  • Edited 8:30am Dec 15, 2013 8:11am | Edited 8:30am
Hi all,

I come from a non economic background, know nothing about banking, investing and zero knowledge about forex. When I first read Fti's thread and the discussion about the market structure thingy.....I thought that was more for the economics student or people in the financial fields. Subsequently and years later, after scratching the surface and gaining a bit of knowledge, I thought this structure thingy is good for general knowledge and I tried to absorb what Fti laid out right from the beginning of this thread. So now, 5+ years to date, I still wonder do I really understand this thingy? And if I really do, how is it going to help me in my trading. Is this why I am having trouble dancing with the market, due to lack of understanding of the structure?

Fti has equate it to the 3 blind men trying to describe an elephant. I know I'm one of the blind men and this is my visualization of market structure and what it is for: Market structure is like the canvas and frame of a painting....it forms the base or plateform and framework which guide where all the details (knowledge for trading) fit together to form the complete picture. When all the right information is in place and in a state of balance, there is a certain harmony, rythm, contrast and magic which makes it a thing of beauty (the ultimate trader in my case). If a piece of knowledge is mising or even slightly off, then the picture is out of balance or just a piece of thrash, and the only way to tell in trading is by the book at the end of the month.

Quote Phil "becareful what you put into your head". I'm trying to absorb everything written in this thread. I know some of the knowledge that has gone into my head was misinterpretation of the content. Putting in is easy, but getting it out when it is wrong, takes lots of effort. Its almost like trying to get rid of junks in the house. Unless I get rid of them, there will be not enough space to bring in the new right stuff....the monks pouring tea comes to mind. See, even the stories are beginning to make sense to me now.

This man (FTI, God bless him) really amazes me. He thought of everything right from the beginning......
.... and I think I'm bless to stumble on his thread.

Have a good weekend everybody.
zz
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