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Hard Way, Easy Way

  • #61
  • Dec 10, 2013 4:37pm Dec 10, 2013 4:37pm
Quoting charvo
Nub, and Mik, I'm well reminded today. Thanks.
No problem. Glad I could help!

Good luck/trading.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #62
  • Dec 10, 2013 6:34pm Dec 10, 2013 6:34pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} h, I know I'm nitpicking, but why is spread paid at the closing and not the opening? IMO the cost is created because we must buy at the ask price and sell at the bid price; whether one views that as opening or closing is arbitrary. Just asking. D
//----

hey hanover.... if the spread did not fluctuate it would be arbitrary..... but for most of us it does fluctuate so it is at most an unknown cost until the point of the trades closure.....

imagine we sold 1 standard lot of the usdjpy on sunday's first tick when the bid/ask prices were 100.00/100.50.... our account would immediately show a -500$ loss......

now later as more traders began trading and banks came on line, the spread and bid/ask prices fell to 99.96/99.98 we close the trade and make 20$ .....

we can't say that original -500 the cost, an expense, of spread because it is now gone..... we can't say we made, taxable income, an extra 500 because we only made 20$......

we do buy at the ask and sell at the bid, but we buy at the first ask and sell at the second bid...... we can't know the second bid/ask spread till we close the trade..... or vice versa..... so it is there, when we close the trade, we will know the spreads cost...... if any.....

//-----

personally i no longer give spread much thought......

suppose the price fell another 98 pips so the bid/ask prices are 98.98/99.00 ..... i now close the trade at an ask price of 99.00 making 1000$...... where did i pay anything.... does it really matter to me that bid was now 98.98 or any figure....

negative swap is the silent killer for me.... that's a true cost.....h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #63
  • Dec 11, 2013 1:21am Dec 11, 2013 1:21am
Quoting hayseed
{quote} //---- hey hanover.... if the spread did not fluctuate it would be arbitrary..... but for most of us it does fluctuate so it is at most an unknown cost until the point of the trades closure.....
negative swap is the silent killer for me.... that's a true cost.....h
Understood. Many thanks for the comprehensive explanation.

For the intraday trader, spread is likely to be more of a problem than swap; whereas for the trader who holds for several days, yes, negative swap is indeed a silent killer.

If I take only positive swap trades, and hold them for long enough so that the swap exceeds the spread, then (everything else being equal) I have a positive expectancy system, although albeit barely positive. Of course that was part of the carry trade strategy, that worked better in yesteryear when disparities between national interest rates were greater, and the currency with the higher national interest rate would appreciate, as demand for it increased, in addition to the swap. Anyway, getting off topic, sorry...... just thinking aloud.
  • #64
  • Dec 11, 2013 4:58am Dec 11, 2013 4:58am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Life is a mind-game. You are either playing to win, or you lose. Sometimes you have to hit rock-bottom to be able to start going in the right direction, but otherwise it's always pertinent to try to not self-sabotage... health, relationships, business, whatever. Thinking the right way helps make it easier to act the right way. Everything has a frame of reference, and if you use the wrong one you'll get the wrong results. You see failures every single day. You see that fat girl with too much make-up and not enough clothing and you know she...
oops =/
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #65
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:09am Dec 11, 2013 5:09am
Quoting Wolf_Wicked
{quote} oops =/
Yeah, wolfy, I bet you fit in all of the mentioned categories...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #66
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:09am Dec 11, 2013 5:09am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Yeah, wolfy, I bet you fit in in all of the mentioned categories...
I can't argue with that.
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #67
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:15am Dec 11, 2013 5:15am
Quoting Wolf_Wicked
{quote} I can't argue with that.
My god...



The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #68
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:18am Dec 11, 2013 5:18am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} My god...
and mine
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #69
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:26am Dec 11, 2013 5:26am
Quoting Wolf_Wicked
{quote} and mine
So you're, by your own confession, a fat, ugly, drunk girl who's by the same token steals stuff and in debt ?!?!

This is gotta be a joke...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #70
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:28am Dec 11, 2013 5:28am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} So you're, by your own confession, a fat, ugly, drunk girl who's by the same token steals stuff and in debt ?!?! This is gotta be a joke...
ok, let's do that
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #71
  • Dec 11, 2013 5:59am Dec 11, 2013 5:59am
Quoting Wolf_Wicked
{quote} ok, let's do that
I doubt I will... whatever 'that' is...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #72
  • Dec 12, 2013 11:19am Dec 12, 2013 11:19am
No idea but the topic seems to have gone MIA, any updates?
  • #73
  • Dec 12, 2013 1:45pm Dec 12, 2013 1:45pm
Isn't that strange that instead of improving and developing their trading strategies , people just sit here in this rookie forum and
talk about how hard it is to be successful. I mean what's the point of writing every second thread about Holy Grail or hard work.
You can check those emotional conversation in the past, they are in uncountable amounts. So just make effort and ask questions
which will help you, because you will never make profit out of forex by just asking questions like "can people get million trading in forex" or "why do people loose their money in forex".
  • #74
  • Dec 12, 2013 2:32pm Dec 12, 2013 2:32pm
Good day all

IF 80-90% ppl lose money trading, then it's def worse than casino stats, i mean blackjack gives u nearly 50/50... Thus losing money trading is definitely a man made venture to destruction which includes but not limited to certain psychological biases / emotional obstacles that WE create upon ourselves.

During college days of 08/09... my buddies and I were talking about how this is the biggest opportunity of a lifetime to buy stocks at insanely cheap valuations etc etc etc... all excited. Guess what? we did buy, but we also sold. Man... making 10-30% in a month on some low hitters seemed so easy... trading was so damn easy...but so was losing money... i had no knowledge of the markets except for couple of books... wait did I just say trading?? 5 years later looking back, what did I learn? what is the difference between easy money and hard money? what is a REAL opportunity?
What is the REAL trade/investment?

This year S&P hits 1800... and into Obama's 2nd term.. wow life moves on......moves on quickly.

It doesn't take a genius to know that was the best time to buy...or at least dip your feet wet, but it does take genius to have conviction to hold, to persist, to tunnel yourself into a grand thesis and not giving up.

08/09 was something that comes up maybe just a few times in one's life time... it really doesn't take too many opportunities to succeed... By capturing the very few ones that really has potential strikes the difference between someone who make it and those who are borderline successful.

Trading strategies should be treated as a consistent source of wealth building... consistent but maybe not asymmetrically huge in payoff or else we risk ruin due to leverage and frankly... math just doesn't support it.

But I believe it's these little/big meltdowns... gifts that the market gives us to have the 'real' opportunity for success.

Good luck everyone.

I will definitely be ready next time?
  • #75
  • Dec 12, 2013 3:12pm Dec 12, 2013 3:12pm
Quoting Orientxpress
Good day all IF 80-90% ppl lose money trading, then it's def worse than casino stats, i mean blackjack gives u nearly 50/50...
Respectfully, I disagree with the quoted statement. I believe you're confusing win rate with probability of ruin.

Mathematically, trading offers 50/50, less costs (spread etc).
Likewise, casino games are almost 50/50, except for the 'house edge'.

If you play a negative expectancy game repeatedly, you will gradually lose everything; the probability of eventual ruin is 100%. That is true for both trading, and casino games.

However, if you make the correct plays at blackjack, and can avoid detection while placing higher bets when there are more high cards remaining in the deck, you can turn negative expectancy into positive expectancy, i.e. shift the odds sufficiently far to beat the casino (explained in this video).
Likewise, if you have sufficient expertise and discipline in trading, it's possible to attain positive expectancy, and win also.
  • #76
  • Dec 12, 2013 4:46pm Dec 12, 2013 4:46pm
I'm not so sure if you randomly trade in the market at any given time, the probability of win/loss is 50/50... for instance if we're in a 5 year bull market, obviously chances favors a long rather than a short vice versa in a bear market.

High win rate doesn't guarantee positive expectancy, it also depends on your betting pattern. With that being said... since a 8 deck blackjack machine can't give u any edge, if you place same bet over time, you will be at ruin. Now... compare that with the market, which at few times in history will offer such asymmetrical payouts, so at times, there are huge opportunities. In trading, a positive expectancy system will win over time, but if you tackle on leverage, human error in psychology, you need to be very disciplined to keep that edge.

But the point of my post isn't about any of that... I was merely trying bring up an idea of waiting for the perfect opportunity for each individual...patience is key...it could be in trading / investing / anything in life.... after speaking with various successful entrepreneurs... this is one of the bits i got out of it, noting that I am still a greenhorn comparing to these veterans. Not to say trading isn't the way, but by all means, if you have a good strategy and the right discipline, you're solid. But like you said, you bet heavy when you expect high cards... it's the 10-20% of those trades that make the bulk of most successful trader's p/l.

To achieve success, Gladwell said it best... 10,000 hrs of dedicated and focused practice w/ feedback and also be at right time right place. Luck is a factor no doubt.

Best
  • #77
  • Dec 12, 2013 8:14pm Dec 12, 2013 8:14pm
luck is absolutely an essential factor, run a simulation even using the exact same system, it is so evident.

Quoting Orientxpress
Luck is a factor no doubt. Best
  • #78
  • Dec 13, 2013 3:35am Dec 13, 2013 3:35am
Quoting Orientxpress
Good day all IF 80-90% ppl lose money trading, then it's def worse than casino stats, i mean blackjack gives u nearly 50/50... Thus losing money trading is definitely a man made venture to destruction which includes but not limited to certain psychological biases / emotional obstacles that WE create upon ourselves. During college days of 08/09... my buddies and I were talking about how this is the biggest opportunity of a lifetime to buy stocks at insanely cheap valuations etc etc etc... all excited. Guess what? we did buy, but we also sold. Man......
I enjoy your phrase about that what happens in 08/09 takes place "FEW" times during lifetime of some person.
You are talking so wisely, that you should know that those things DOESN'T HAPPEN FEW TIMES.
The last time something like that happened was Great Depression. I think it was quite important to inform you.
  • #79
  • Edited 4:24am Dec 13, 2013 4:13am | Edited 4:24am
Quoting charvo
luck is absolutely an essential factor, run a simulation even using the exact same system, it is so evident. {quote}
There is no "systematic" solution to be successful in trading. One must know why the market is wrong and entering only when the market starts understanding it; not before nor after. How accurate is this "Why" and this "When" depends mainly on how hard you can work on it:
-What do you know about what's going on and what's looming (Information).
-What do you know about participants behaviour (market sentiment, techs, specs, institutionals..) .
-What do you know about market dynamics (liquidity search, price formation..).
-Do you have a solid knowledge of economics, global macro economy, monetary policies and politics.
-Do you know how informations discounts each other and to what extent.
-Do you know what informations impact what kind of participant and when and how long.
-Do you know how to filter the noise from the real movers and what could weaken these movers or strengthen the noise.
-and so on.
Don't be fascinated by those traders who works for banks or hedge funds, I know many and they are not good at it, they don't need to. They make money because of their deep pockets and by mutualzing losses. Trading is a long, limitless and costly process and one will pay (blow accounts) before getting real expertise as an individual trader.
Rien ne sert de courir il faut partir à point.
  • #80
  • Dec 13, 2013 5:48am Dec 13, 2013 5:48am
Quoting flytox
{quote} There is no "systematic" solution to be successful in trading.
It may depend on what you mean by 'systematic'. As far as EA's, automated trading, etc., they can and do work. How well and in what markets - it seems to vary almost as much as single traders

Quoting flytox
{quote} One must know why the market is wrong and entering only when the market starts understanding it; not before nor after. How accurate is this "Why" and this "When" depends mainly on how hard you can work on it: -What do you know about what's going on and what's looming (Information). -What do you know about participants behaviour (market sentiment, techs, specs, institutionals..) . -What do you know about market dynamics (liquidity search, price formation..). -Do you have a solid knowledge of economics, global macro economy, monetary policies...
Completely wrong.

I know (almost) nothing about what's going on in the markets and what's looming. (i.e., I read news items, but I don't vary my trading for it.)
I know nothing about participants behaviour.
I know a small bit about market dynamics - but probably not enough to know 'how much I don't know'.
I do NOT have a solid knowledge of economics, global macro economy, etc., etc., etc.
I don't know how information(s) discounts each other and what extent.
I don't know what information(s) impact other participants, either when or how long.
I don't know how to filter the noise, other than going to a higher TF than 1-5 min.
Many of 'those' traders you mention are only probably only average or poor and get bailed out by managers and their bad trades offset by their better peers.

So how can I make any money in Forex, and yet I seem to know almost nothing of what I need to know? (according to you)
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