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Why Simple is better in trading and Complex is not

  • #481
  • Edited 5:59am Dec 3, 2013 3:04am | Edited 5:59am
This is something I often do. I set a limit order when the desired SL is too far. Sometimes it gets triggered, other time not. I can't care less...
The 2nd one, JPYUSD, I just entered.
Edit: JPYUSD SL hit -10
Edit AUDUSD SL hit -10
Edit Trying again JPUUSD SL hit -10
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  • #482
  • Dec 3, 2013 7:19am Dec 3, 2013 7:19am
Hi Guys

take care been fun

where is what I am looking at today!
if I find an simple entry I will

cheers

teb63
Attached Image
  • #483
  • Dec 3, 2013 11:10am Dec 3, 2013 11:10am
Quoting milam
{quote} Hanover I am very interested in knowing the way you trade, please feel free to elaborate on it if you like, Milam
Forex is currently only a hobby for me. I live in New Zealand, and most of my income comes from investments (some active, some passive) in other markets. However, my programmer/trader buddy (mim2005) and I are building our own portfolios, a small part of which includes a growing arsenal of forex EAs that have tested promisingly (explained in this thread).

I am also experimenting with ideas of my own (like the one I described earlier in post #463). If one of these proves profitable for 12 months, I'll maybe start a thread in the Systems section.
  • #484
  • Dec 3, 2013 6:07pm Dec 3, 2013 6:07pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} Forex is currently only a hobby for me. I live in New Zealand, and most of my income comes from investments (some active, some passive) in other markets. However, my programmer/trader buddy (mim2005) and I are building our own portfolios, a small part of which includes a growing arsenal of forex EAs that have tested promisingly (explained in this thread). I am also experimenting with ideas of my own (like the one I described earlier in post #463). If one of these proves profitable...
Hanover

Thank you..

Did you try your cluster indicator for divergence? Do you think is it possible to have only one line showing the pair as the cfp and complex pair indicators?
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #485
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:01am Dec 4, 2013 1:01am
Quoting milam
{quote} Hanover Thank you.. Did you try your cluster indicator for divergence? Do you think is it possible to have only one line showing the pair as the cfp and complex pair indicators?
Let's move our discussion to this thread, so that we don't hijack TEB63's thread.
  • #486
  • Dec 5, 2013 10:00am Dec 5, 2013 10:00am
Tomorrow is NFP and it could be really crazy - with the tapper thing.
You might think about closing up for the weekend between now (11am EST) and noon.
that is unless you have a plan

regards

TEB
  • #487
  • Dec 6, 2013 3:53am Dec 6, 2013 3:53am
as I said at the stated of the week you need only 50 sma - or any one tool to make money I am up $508
I like to trade a small % on a number of trades with this idea because you never know which will take off
what I mean by that is I am not looking at bigger TF so I do not see the greater strength or weakens of a pair
so on one chart a lone I can and will be ambushed by higher HF moves but with a good RRR its all good
I will close all trades before 8am because of NFP
guys keep it simple
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  • #488
  • Dec 6, 2013 4:01am Dec 6, 2013 4:01am
Quoting TEB63
as I said at the stated of the week you need only 50 sma - or any one tool to make money I am up $508 I like to trade a small % on a number of trades with this idea because you never know which will take off what I mean by that is I am not looking at bigger TF so I do not see the greater strength or weakens of a pair so on one chart a lone I can and will be ambushed by higher HF moves but with a good RRR its all good I will close all trades before 8am because of NFP guys keep it simple {image}
nice Teb.... although I believe it's the fact your approach is structured that is making it win....

All entries are in effect 50/50 so as long as you get average winners larger than average losers you're gonna profit, as long as you take enough trades in a structured manner.
tradewith60
  • #489
  • Dec 6, 2013 4:22am Dec 6, 2013 4:22am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} nice Teb.... although I believe it's the fact your approach is structured that is making it win.... All entries are in effect 50/50 so as long as you get average winners larger than average losers you're gonna profit, as long as you take enough trades in a structured manner.
thanks!

Rules do matter!

I am not sure I think its 50/50% though
I think the 50sma acts as a filter so I am going with the trend so I think that (in this case ) it pushes it up in to the 60s%
if I was looking at higher TF I think I can push it into the 80s%

but I agree with you every entry is random which will win or lose no one knowns

just my thoughts
  • #490
  • Edited 7:14am Dec 6, 2013 6:50am | Edited 7:14am
Quoting TEB63
{quote} thanks! Rules do matter! I am not sure I think its 50/50% though I think the 50sma acts as a filter so I am going with the trend so I think that (in this case ) it pushes it up in to the 60s% if I was looking at higher TF I think I can push it into the 80s% but I agree with you every entry is random which will win or lose no one knowns just my thoughts
I agree with TEB63 saying SMA50 works good as a filter.
However, I'm not sure if it is a good strategy for higher time frames. It's because the higher you go, the more SL margin you need. And the profit margin is not necessarily corresponding with the bigger SL margin (RRR comes down.)
Also, you need to expect longer trading time with a "bumpy road" of news and weekends, which is not my likes.
For example, you need to close all positions before big news hours -- See TEB's previous post -- he's closing all before NFP.

So I just stick to 15m.... (I can still use entry signs from 1h and 4h, using 15m for entry points).
  • #491
  • Dec 6, 2013 7:26am Dec 6, 2013 7:26am
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} I agree with TEB63 saying SMA50 works good as a filter. However, I'm not sure if it is a good strategy for higher time frames. It's because the higher you go, the more SL margin you need. And the profit margin is not necessarily corresponding with the bigger SL margin (RRR comes down.) Also, you need to expect longer trading time with a "bumpy road" of news and weekends, which is not my likes. For example, you need to close all positions before big news hours -- See TEB's previous post -- he's closing all before NFP. So I just stick to 15m.......

I would close down with NFP- whatever time frame I was trading.

I think the 50sma works on anytime frame
I think there are better filters then the 50 sma
- my point was its good enough and simple works

lets watch the fireworks lol
  • #492
  • Dec 6, 2013 8:09am Dec 6, 2013 8:09am
Quoting TEB63
{quote} lets watch the fireworks lol
I watched it enough. Won't jump in today -- done this week. Have a great weekend!
  • #493
  • Dec 9, 2013 9:01pm Dec 9, 2013 9:01pm
Quoting TEB63
{quote} ~~ I think there are better filters then the 50 sma -
RSI (21), previous days close, London open, a pivot, channel, none of these?
Good Trading
  • #494
  • Dec 11, 2013 12:56am Dec 11, 2013 12:56am
Quoting TEB63
{quote} Boy that a pretty chart - I might start gold
Here is another one, worked nicely for us Asian traders. Also watching the E/J since some of Teb's posts, seems to have some movement during Tokyo sessions.

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Good Trading
  • #495
  • Dec 11, 2013 12:07pm Dec 11, 2013 12:07pm
Nice trades TEB, however I fail to see what they have to do with 50sma, your yellow lines tells a story why it was good place to trade and 50 sma does what ? I'm sure u can see slope of a price without it. Following that,for sake of making things simple..why even have it on a chart then ?
  • #496
  • Dec 12, 2013 3:18pm Dec 12, 2013 3:18pm
Quoting uberteh
Nice trades TEB, however I fail to see what they have to do with 50sma, your yellow lines tells a story why it was good place to trade and 50 sma does what ? I'm sure u can see slope of a price without it. Following that,for sake of making things simple..why even have it on a chart then ?

good question

the 50 is just a filter to trade with the trend
its not about entries
I use other things as triggers
  • #497
  • Dec 13, 2013 3:55am Dec 13, 2013 3:55am
TEB63

Would you be kind enough ,to give us tips about the triggers you used the most ... i believe it should be about price action , your chart are almost naked .... and i really like your concept of "simplicity" reading your thread it help me to "clean" my charts ....

thank's in advance
  • #498
  • Dec 13, 2013 5:39am Dec 13, 2013 5:39am
The secret to trading is not triggers is the money management

I was working with a BBands system this week with a simple trigger and great RRR from 1 / 2.5 to 1/4

took 15 trades 6 winners 1 floater and 8 losses

I took trades from the 10 mins to 4 hours and I was up well over 2k

the trigger really matters little

its the stop and the target that matter ad if you can get a great RRR

cheers
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  • #499
  • Dec 17, 2013 5:03pm Dec 17, 2013 5:03pm
Quoting 60minuteman
Less than 1000 word rules for Hanover.

1. if h4 closes down place pending sell 1 pip + spread below the low
2. if h4 closes up place pending buy 1 pip + spread above the high
3. place stop below the low/high of the closed h4 bar unless the bar that triggers the trade makes a higher high or lower low, in which case use those new extremes.
4. If a valid trade entry creates a hedge take the trade.
5. If entries are open already as a hedge and a new valid entry exists, take the trade.
6. exit in profit.

This system can't be coded as written (rule 6, exit where in profit?), and as a very basic breakout system has a negative expectancy. So it's neither mechanical nor profitable (as written).
  • #500
  • Dec 17, 2013 5:23pm Dec 17, 2013 5:23pm
Quoting smittens4212
{quote} This system can't be coded as written (rule 6, exit where in profit?), and as a very basic breakout system has a negative expectancy. So it's neither mechanical nor profitable (as written).
you have proof of any of your claims?

All entries can be considered breakouts. Define breakout?
tradewith60
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