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  • #221
  • Sep 23, 2013 6:54am Sep 23, 2013 6:54am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 44%, LS - 36%, SS - 26% /
The large change in Trader’s positions may shake prices a bit (we could see declining prices), but in the medium/long term, I don’t see, why prices could not rally further. Since the last major cot extreme, prices are again going higher/stress levels are decreasing. I may be wrong, but I would expect a larger, close to All-Time cot extreme to signal the top.


British Pound
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS - 28%, SS - 11% /
The cot change and the relative extreme in the market may put an end to the rally. The fact that only Small Speculators are optimistic about the rally is also a bearish signal. Of course one may argue: stress levels in British Pound are not at their peak levels yet, thus prices can rally further… well, as always, I urge everyone to look not only at the cot data, but use it together with other TA tools. Simply looking at a longer chart, it is clearly visible, that prices are not far from important resistance levels.


Corn
COT Extreme / C-448 report, LS – 449 report COT extreme /
If we look at a longer chart, we can see that all obvious bottoms in prices correlated with major cot extremes, when commercials were net long. This is the situation right now.



I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT reportCOT chartsCommitments of Traders basics
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report37_Corn.png Size: 226 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report37_GBP.png Size: 262 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report37_S&P-500.png Size: 242 KB
  • #222
  • Oct 1, 2013 7:43am Oct 1, 2013 7:43am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 42%, LS - 29%, SS - 54% /


COT Extreme / C-553 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The huge change in Trader’s positions and the All Time cot extreme both are very strong bearish signals… the rally be over for some time now.

USD Index
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS - 26%, SS - 18% /
If we analyze the past one year of the USD Index, we can find that it reacted pretty well to cot change signals. In the latest report we can find a larger that average change, which can be considered a bullish signal.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Stress levels are high, we are expecting prices to reach a top soon.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report38_Cocoa.png Size: 249 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report38_USD Index.png Size: 189 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report38_Dow Jones-30.png Size: 193 KB
  • #223
  • Oct 1, 2013 10:51am Oct 1, 2013 10:51am
Fade the specs!!
  • #224
  • Oct 7, 2013 8:33am Oct 7, 2013 8:33am
Hi everyone,

It seems that the U.S. Shutdown has an effect on us, people who follow the cot reports. The CFTC has stopped issuing the reports for now. Let’s hope that this situation will not last very long!




All the best,
Dunstan
  • #225
  • Oct 7, 2013 11:56am Oct 7, 2013 11:56am
Shutdown has affected reports which i always follow to trade with big boys. Oh, my pips...
  • #226
  • Oct 7, 2013 4:02pm Oct 7, 2013 4:02pm
Quoting Dunstan
Hi everyone, It seems that the U.S. Shutdown has an effect on us, people who follow the cot reports. The CFTC has stopped issuing the reports for now. Let’s hope that this situation will not last very long! All the best, Dunstan
Time for you to take some holidays, but don't go to US National Parks as they are also closed down
  • #227
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:14am Nov 12, 2013 6:14am
Hi everyone,



CFTC has resumed publishing the cot reports, they are up-to-date again! J

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 31%, LS - 36%, SS - 18% /
If we look at the last one year, we can find that similar large changes in Trader’s positions preceded the rallies. Although we don’t have a large extreme in the cot report, the recurring patterns seem to be convincing.


Nasdaq-100
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
There is an unquestionable bull market here… even if we’ve got an All Time cot extreme that is indicating a top, we should be very careful entering against the obvious trend. Of course the Risk/Reward on such a trade could be pretty temptingJ

Cocoa
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The large cot extreme in Cocoa has been present for many weeks now, but without any real price reaction. Still, I think there is great opportunity here, so we shouldn’t forget about this market!


I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,


Dunstan

the original COT report
COT charts
Commitments of Traders basics
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report44_Nasdaq-100.png Size: 238 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report44_Cocoa.png Size: 239 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report44_Soybean Meal.png Size: 186 KB
  • #228
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:33am Nov 27, 2013 4:33am
Hi everyone,

(Sorry for my late update… I took a little holiday J, just came back yesterday)

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Copper

COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS - 30% /

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The very large change in Trader’s positions and the unquestionable extreme in the market both suggest prices should go higher. This, together with close support levels adds up to an exciting trading opportunity that should be investigated more closely.

Japanese Yen


COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS - 38% /
COT Extreme / C – 334 report, LS – 331 report COT extreme /
The even greater change last week could not affect prices positively, so I’m not expecting the recent changes to do any better… the extreme has been present for almost a year now, but the down trend is obviously intact. Trading this market to the upside looks pretty risky, even though we’ve got large stresses built up in it.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C – 52 report, LS – 50 report COT extreme /
Commercials have again become net long, only small speculators are holding short contracts… If we investigate the historical charts, we can see that usually prices bottomed out, when we had a similar case. The volume and open interest scores also support the bullish bias that we have.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report


COT charts


Commitments of Traders basics
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report46_Cotton.png Size: 209 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report46_JPY.png Size: 241 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report46_Copper.png Size: 251 KB
  • #229
  • Dec 3, 2013 4:52am Dec 3, 2013 4:52am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

5-Year Note
COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS - 22%, SS – 19% /
Looking at a longer chart, we can see how the recent cot extreme managed to push prices higher. The bearish signal coming from the latest report (large changes in Traders positions) suggests that we could see a bit of a decline in prices, but let’s not forget the strength of a cot extreme signal --> until we reach an opposite cot extreme (Large Specs above 300.000 contracts for example), I believe the last extreme is still in place.

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / C – 335 report, LS – 332 report COT extreme /
I hope everyone took my advice last week and stepped away from this market As we can see, even though we’ve got this close to all time cot extreme in the market, prices don’t seem to bother… I believe (but it’s really just my feeling) that we will stress levels in Japanese yen rise even further.

Wheat
COT Extreme / C – 20 report, LS – 79 report COT extreme /
Analyzing the historical chart, we can see how well wheat reacts to cot signals. This time, we’ve got a bullish type cot extreme in the market that’s telling us: prices should start climbing soon.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report


COT charts


Commitments of Traders basics
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report47_Wheat.png Size: 271 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report47_JPY.png Size: 255 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report47_Soybean Meal.png Size: 199 KB
  • #230
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:45pm Dec 4, 2013 3:45pm
very interesting, reading & subcribed.

I found some info in this book: sentiment in the forex market by jamie saettele.
  • #231
  • Dec 5, 2013 12:45am Dec 5, 2013 12:45am
Quoting fxjorr
very interesting, reading & subcribed. I found some info in this book: sentiment in the forex market by jamie saettele.
Sounds like an interesting book, thanks for sharing!

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #232
  • Dec 5, 2013 5:25pm Dec 5, 2013 5:25pm
hey Dunstan, what is the day of COT release? in some source it says tuesdays, in other sources friday.
  • #233
  • Dec 6, 2013 3:26am Dec 6, 2013 3:26am
Quoting fxjorr
hey Dunstan, what is the day of COT release? in some source it says tuesdays, in other sources friday.
CFTC normally releases the reports 3:30 p.m. Eastern time on Fridays, but the reports show data from the previous Tuesday. There are times, when the reports come out another day (usually next Monday), when there is a Federal holiday on the normal issue day, Friday.


Check out this video on the cot report for a bit more info on how they are built up!

I hope I could help!

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #234
  • Dec 6, 2013 5:33am Dec 6, 2013 5:33am
Quoting Dunstan
{quote} CFTC normally releases the reports 3:30 p.m. Eastern time on Fridays, but the reports show data from the previous Tuesday. There are times, when the reports come out another day (usually next Monday), when there is a Federal holiday on the normal issue day, Friday. Check out this video on the cot report for a bit more info on how they are built up! I hope I could help! All the best, Dunstan
thanks that clarified everything.
  • #235
  • Dec 6, 2013 6:11am Dec 6, 2013 6:11am
Quoting mzvega
Id like to share a link to a few indicators that are great for plotting Cot for MT4. At the bottom of the page (the comments area) has a video with instructions. Read the instuctions very carefully, as people often complain they cant make it work, but when you take the time it does work and its great! http://articles.mql4.com/867/page6#comments indicator and instructions at the bottom of page.................. For the below chart I used Tiff data, instead of the old legacy files, but none the less, great indicator, to plot COT data on...
This is a great info, I was looking for something like this since last week, thanks!, I will try to make it work.
  • #236
  • Dec 6, 2013 1:42pm Dec 6, 2013 1:42pm
This is great information! I love the look of that S&P Chart on the longer term. It dipped, the commercials got long while large and small specs were short, and BAM! I will be back here.
  • #237
  • Dec 7, 2013 1:30am Dec 7, 2013 1:30am
I've not used CoT analysis in some time, cause my trading shifted and remained on a small time scale (news, EAs), but I'll be revisiting this useful tool soon for developing some discretionary swing/position trading skills.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #238
  • Dec 7, 2013 5:50am Dec 7, 2013 5:50am
I have looked at Cot charts for years but I have never been able to use them.

I think Forex may move to fast for Cot - data that is 10 days old I think is to old to trade with.

just my thoughts
  • #239
  • Dec 8, 2013 6:01am Dec 8, 2013 6:01am
Quoting TEB63
I have looked at Cot charts for years but I have never been able to use them. I think Forex may move to fast for Cot - data that is 10 days old I think is to old to trade with. just my thoughts
Hi TEB,

Well, imho the CoT report is as good as it gets when it comes to knowing real Forex volumes. I believe it is a especially useful tool for position traders. My idea is to hold unto a few swing trades for a much longer period than I usually do, and turn them into position trades following Pipeasy's rationale on this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=245149 . It will be a learning experience for me.

Cheers,
vox
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #240
  • Dec 9, 2013 3:11am Dec 9, 2013 3:11am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS - 24%, SS – 22% /
Without the large cot extreme, this change in Trade’s positions is not enough for me to really seriously consider a larger short trade… I’m not convinced.



Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / C – 336 report, LS – 335 report COT extreme /
The picture still seems to me more bearish than bullish, even if we’ve got this enormous (but still not All Time!!) cot extreme. I do believe that we can see further increase of the stress level present in this market, maybe even to all time levels, before prices reach a bottom.

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 22 report, LS – 108 report COT extreme /
Interesting to see, how different the picture is on a longer chart that on a shorter one… If we look from high above, we see more of a bullish type cot extreme, but as we narrow down our perspective, we can see the relative extremes that were pushing prices back down.

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan

the original COT report


COT charts


Commitments of Traders basics
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report48_Rough Rice.png Size: 207 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report48_JPY.png Size: 227 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report48_Dow Jones-30.png Size: 192 KB
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