No Indi, No Cry

i am currently not on my desk but online from my tablet so gonna post a chart as soon as im back on my desk. For now i am leaving this position open overnight and will see what happens till tomorrow.

Just took a profit of +18 out of this position.


There is Chf Retail Sales coming up in half an hour, plus there is a very important point of technical confluence on the chart, indicating resistance. Plus i dont really like this price action, when there is a big move and price isnt able to retrace clearly from this lows for me this means, there is still a big chance for a further move in the same direction.

When i took the position the plan was to leave this position overnight open to catch a retrace move and to decide in the morning what to do, but this move didnt ignite the way i wanted it to be, plus the confluence and the data coming up. So i have to revaluate the situation and i am more than happy to take this profits for now. But one never knows, maybe a reentry is in the cards, if the situation allows for it.

Here the chart with the confluence.

and below the UsdChf Daily chart with the big support, where i placed my stop under.

Now for the reason of this entry.

On friday we had great NFP numbers which were actually dollar positiv, it showed on UsdJpy but most of the other Usd markets were not able to rallye. So what seems to happen the market is tired of the tapering topic and lets say for now it wants to take a break from it. Still i am convinced, that dollar sell moves are a chance to buy in at least for shortterm retraces. This NFP numbers were too strong to be ignored, and thats what i made on UsdChf, tried to pick a low, which was supported with a daily support and a shorter term trendline. In the end it was a profitable trade, and thats all what matters as a measurable fact.

Its true - no trade is a trade.
I claim to say that alot of people lose their money on directionless days like these, and thats where the key is hidden. I keep my money in my pockets. so i can fight another day, on my day. Not every day is 'my day', not everyday has the right circumstances for perfect entries, and thats when discipline comes to play staying disciplined while i am not in a trade is at least same as hard as when being in a position. This market is mercyless when i make a mistake it will take advantage it never gave back whenever i made mistakes it cost me money, i learned this way to reduce mistakes, there is no money management or trading book to avoid or teach this stuff.

hello itrader,

sweet trading you're doing there. clear and simple. way to go.

hi 99problems,
Thanks alot for your kind words.

Just reentered my UsdChf Buy @ 0.8892 emergency Stop @ 0.8850 Limit @ 0.8920

I know it looks like bad r:r, and it is, because its a "countertrend" trade, but if the current low @ 0.8882 breaks i will revaluate this position and if necessary try to head to the exits at some rational spot.

I know it looks a little bit crazy to fight this trend, but as i said yesterday, the Usd fundamentally spoken is not that weak, there are good circumstances to pick up a buy trade, and thats what i am doing, and i am willing to take the risk for this entry even if it goes against me / so be it.

charts below showing technical support at this spot, i particularly like the daily channelline.

i just closed this position at 0.8875 with a loss of -17 pips. It went 0,5 pips close to my stop and retraced. Sometimes you have the luck sometimes not. This time i have it. After it went for 7-8 hours sideways i didnt have a good feeling anymore about this position but i didnt close the position which was a mistake today.

December is not being very generous to me till now. It has been a tough month, not a lot of clear moves, this Dollar weakness and hesitation mixed with a little bit of greed caught me on the wrong foot losing 17 pips yesterday. After all my equity is up 0,8% till today, my monthly target is 1-5% because i know there will be directionless months, so i always keep in mind that a slow moving market is possible. trading a 100k acc. like i do this egals a net profit of 800 bucks, till today, and i am happy as long as i am not losing. November was a great month and i still have a big part of december ahead of me, sometimes the good trades come in a short period of time, one never knows.

Today i am looking for a EurUsd sell entry above 1.3810 this level would make a nice entry, with an emergency stop above 1.3850. I am also watching GbpUsd 1.6300 is a tough support a buy there if PA allows is in the cards.

NzdUsd Buy @ 0.8227 emergency Stop @ 0.8190 Limit @ 0.8270

out +20

chart coming up

here is the chart with a little bit of delay... no reason for it to break directly pre RBNZ Rate Statement lows.

lol what a day, i placed about half an hour ago an buy order NzdUsd @ 0.8190 emergency Stop @ 0.8135 and now i am back at my desk to see it filled and in profit +24, i just closed it with this profit. I cant tell why the kiwi rushed this fast to my order and back up again, so its better to take profits.

there are days where everything works out, and there are the bad days where nothing seems to work.

confluence of fibo, several trend-channels, plus yesterday a positive NZD RBNZ Event equals profits. The magic is to wait for those days where all circumstances fit together and not to rush into bad entries...

Yesterday, there was once again a great setup on GbpUsd. I illustrated my thoughts on the chart below. Unhopefully my entry order was placed at 1,6312 the low was 1,6320 so it didnt get filled, still a beautiful setup.

The hardest part is to wait.

The markets are open 24/5 and monitoring them can get very tempting, but for me the most important part and also the hardest part is to wait and keep my thoughts clear.
When i monitor them alot of feelings can get mixed up inside of me, in my earlier days i used to jump into stupid trades all the time because i had this feeling "i need to trade now" and when i miss a good opportunity i feel the urge to trade even more, but now a days when i get this emotion cocktail i simply take a break. I stand up from the desk and just go away from the charts, i know when i get this mix of emotions there isnt a good opportunity to trade. The good trades are when my emotions are really clear, i literally feel this position is going to be a winner, i think every trader knows this feeling.
I call this mind the state of "godmode", when i see it all clear infront of me, i see the sentiment, i know what news are moving the markets, i feel if this move is sustainable or not, and i know this or that level is not going to break, this level, and this trendline is going to defend my stoploss, and ultimatley its just a question of "how much profits i am willing to take".
All this wont work out if i am a pip hunter, if my target is to make hundred of pips every day i will fail, because its simply not possible to have this godmode state so often. I try to extract the good setups and this takes time, in the end all that matters is not how many pips one makes, but how much monetary profits. Can you make a living from your trading ? at the same time, can you go to bed every night without being in a state of agitation ? Whats the sense in making profits but at the same time not being able to get some sleep, being balanced is the key, in everything.

Talking about not having enough opportunities.

I had my EurUsd Sell Order @ 1,3815 in place Emergency Stop @ 1,3855, unhopefully the high was @ 1,3810.

EurUsd 4h chart for better illustration of thoughts.

New week, old game.

AudUsd is worth to keep an eye on. Tonight there is the Chinese HSBC PMI Data Release, lets see how much of an effect this figure is going to have on the Aud and if an potential setup will occure in the coming hours/days.

Also NzdUsd is on my watchlist.

Chart below illustrates the keypoints.
*however there is a big Shoulder Head Shoulder Pattern, so i am being a little bit cautious and will wait for a clear sentiment to jump into a sell entry in the marked zone, otherwise i will let this setup go.

Sell EurAud @ 1.5405 emergency Stop @ 1.5463 Limit @ 1.5360

Change of plans on a break of 1.5430