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vsa with Malcolm

  • #25,001
  • Dec 5, 2013 6:15am Dec 5, 2013 6:15am
Connected!
  • #25,002
  • Dec 5, 2013 8:45am Dec 5, 2013 8:45am
Quoting SimpleDev
Not all that confident on this trade so I took only a partial position. But 1h is in a down trend, and big volume from yesterdays US session. Today in late Asia EJ tried to break the high of the high volume bar from US but failed, I am taking this as a sign of weakness. Like to see this down to S1. {image} {image}
hope you took your profit before that spike.....................
  • #25,003
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:23pm Dec 5, 2013 1:23pm
6A H2 - some strength IMO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6A 12-13 (120 Min) 2013-12-05.jpg Size: 171 KB
  • #25,004
  • Dec 5, 2013 6:29pm Dec 5, 2013 6:29pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
Connected!
Hows it going Kinsale
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #25,005
  • Dec 5, 2013 8:04pm Dec 5, 2013 8:04pm
Quoting carbonado
{quote} hope you took your profit before that spike.....................
Yea I booked 8 pips out of it, I pulled out too early I would have hit the S1 target of 138.55.
  • #25,006
  • Dec 5, 2013 8:09pm Dec 5, 2013 8:09pm
Quoting Hummel
6A H2 - some strength IMO {image}
Yup..

Just keep in mind we are in a huge down channel on AUD, but some good stopping volume coming in. I would suspect some action to the upside from it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h.png Size: 111 KB
  • #25,007
  • Dec 6, 2013 4:52am Dec 6, 2013 4:52am
Quoting Connected
{quote} Hows it going Kinsale
Ha, I was actually talking about having an internet connection at last. But it's going ok thanks!
  • #25,008
  • Dec 6, 2013 6:54pm Dec 6, 2013 6:54pm

Quoting KinsaleForex
{quote} Ha, I was actually talking about having an internet connection at last. But it's going ok thanks!
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #25,009
  • Dec 7, 2013 10:58pm Dec 7, 2013 10:58pm
So...

What is going on with this chart? And how could you use this to your advantage in the coming trading days?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h.png Size: 56 KB
  • #25,010
  • Dec 8, 2013 1:24am Dec 8, 2013 1:24am
Hi SimpleDev,

Thanks for sharing your AUDCHF chart - its looking to be bottoming out at the end of a distribution phase with signs of strength seen in the background, high volume buying at the recent lows and profit taking by the specialists and also the recent shakeout into fresh new lows on ultra high volume. We should be looking for confirmation of further strength at the lows, tests/no supply confirmation in order to proceed with any long setups.

Quoting SimpleDev
So... What is going on with this chart? And how could you use this to your advantage in the coming trading days? {image}
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #25,011
  • Edited 6:36am Dec 8, 2013 3:04am | Edited 6:36am
Quoting SimpleDev
So... What is going on with this chart? And how could you use this to your advantage in the coming trading days? {image}
Hi SipleDev,

I think we have a mixed background of a ranging market. I see signs of strength and weekness very close to each other. We have seen heavy buying at 0,81150 and heavy selling 0,81400. It seems for me merely like the price will continue down because there are many failing tests.

I would wait for a down move, then a retracement to short after SOW and a ND bar to short.
  • #25,012
  • Dec 8, 2013 9:44am Dec 8, 2013 9:44am
Quoting SimpleDev
So... What is going on with this chart? And how could you use this to your advantage in the coming trading days? {image}
hello simpledev....my understanding of the market is this.........the market is basing out(accumulation)....strength first came in to the market,on thursday.....2013.12.05.....it came as a climax bar,but we do not want to jump in just yet due to this first sign of strength ...so we wait so more to observe the background........on friday.........a shake out happen..that would only happen when the SM are about ready to progress with the mark up stage..they got some herds selling and where just happy to do that.....they tricked them to sell and later gunning for their stops.....after a shakeout we want to see a confirmation of the shakeout,we already did.......then a low volume test/no supply...and we already did........its go time in my own opinion...................
  • #25,013
  • Dec 8, 2013 7:11pm Dec 8, 2013 7:11pm
Quoting Connected
We should be looking for confirmation of further strength at the lows, tests/no supply confirmation in order to proceed with any long setups. {quote}
You got it, the only thing is that the trend is flat, so ACHF maybe subject to further shakeouts.

Quoting Trappist
{quote} I think we have a mixed background of a ranging market.
Interesting, the supply bars at .8140 does cause concern, but we have seen SOS from Thursday and Friday. The supply bars could possibly be the trend traders taking new shorts, either way it would be a good idea to wait and let either the market push up above the supply bars at .8140 before entering long or wait for the market to push below the low of the Shakeout to enter short.

Quoting carbonado
{quote} strength first came in to the market,on thursday.....2013.12.05.....it came as a climax bar,but we do not want to jump in just yet due to this first sign of strength ...so we wait so more to observe the background........on friday.........a shake out happen..that would only happen when the SM are about ready to progress with the mark up stage..they got some herds selling and where just happy to do that.....they tricked them to sell and later gunning for their stops.....after a shakeout we want to see a confirmation of the shakeout,we already...
I would be hesitant to call Thursday a climax bar, there is high volume on Thursday but I don't think the spread is wide enough to call it a climax bar. Friday however the spread is wide I would call this more of a climax bar. If you want to be aggressive then go ahead and enter a very small position off the test in late Friday but be prepared for another possible shake out. I would wait for the trend to turn up before entering in a large position.


Summary Strength came in Thursday and Friday nice volume and spread on Friday, from here I am will be watching the 15m to start trending up and looking for entry bars, no point in having to hold a position in a ranging market.
  • #25,014
  • Dec 8, 2013 11:57pm Dec 8, 2013 11:57pm
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} You got it, the only thing is that the trend is flat, so ACHF maybe subject to further shakeouts. {quote} Interesting, the supply bars at .8140 does cause concern, but we have seen SOS from Thursday and Friday. The supply bars could possibly be the trend traders taking new shorts, either way it would be a good idea to wait and let either the market push up above the supply bars at .8140 before entering long or wait for the market to push below the low of the Shakeout to enter short. {quote} I would be hesitant to call Thursday a climax bar,...

i have always had issue with when a set up,shows up late friday...........it tend to push again before moving ahead......to where it is suppose to go,i have asked you this question before but still want to ask again. How do you keep buying with the trend....do you wait for every new shakeout on a demand zone,or how.....and i asked a question as regards 2 bar reversal earlier,i read MTM again but their was no refrence as to 2 bar reversal in MTM.
  • #25,015
  • Dec 9, 2013 12:29am Dec 9, 2013 12:29am
Quoting carbonado
{quote} i have always had issue with when a set up,shows up late friday...........it tend to push again before moving ahead......to where it is suppose to go,i have asked you this question before but still want to ask again. How do you keep buying with the trend....do you wait for every new shakeout on a demand zone,or how.....and i asked a question as regards 2 bar reversal earlier,i read MTM again but their was no refrence as to 2 bar reversal in MTM.
In your post you said a low volume test/ND, I assumed you were talking about the one late Friday, if it was taken then you would be holding over the weekend.

My mistake its been a few years since I have read MTM, I thought MTM referenced 2 bars. A 2 bar reversal is a shake out across 2 bars. Ideally you want to see the first bar of the 2 bar a down bar with a strong close and higher volume, the second bar you want to see an up bar closing on its high as well as the high of the first down bar.

As far as buying with the trend, well a technically a shakeouts should have wide spreads and are considered signs of strength which SOS aren't used as entry bars. I use a 21 SMA as a trend indicator, so with strength in the background and the SMA trending up I start looking for entry bars, entry bars being NS/Tests.

UJ from last Wednesday and Thursday show a prefect example of a 2 bar reversal with buying in an up trend. Entry bar is a test about 1h after London Open.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15m.png Size: 56 KB
  • #25,016
  • Dec 9, 2013 1:20am Dec 9, 2013 1:20am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} In your post you said a low volume test/ND, I assumed you were talking about the one late Friday, if it was taken then you would be holding over the weekend. My mistake its been a few years since I have read MTM, I thought MTM referenced 2 bars. A 2 bar reversal is a shake out across 2 bars. Ideally you want to see the first bar of the 2 bar a down bar with a strong close and higher volume, the second bar you want to see an up bar closing on its high as well as the high of the first down bar. As far as buying with the trend, well a technically...

yes,i was talking about the test and NS on friday,technically you would be constructing the shake out on two bars......about the volume of the second bar should it be higher than the first,that is the volume and close must be higher than the first, another question is do you trade full time...thanks in advance..............
  • #25,017
  • Dec 9, 2013 2:05am Dec 9, 2013 2:05am
Quoting carbonado
{quote} yes,i was talking about the test and NS on friday,technically you would be constructing the shake out on two bars......about the volume of the second bar should it be higher than the first,that is the volume and close must be higher than the first, another question is do you trade full time...thanks in advance..............
The volume on the second bar should be less than the first, you want the first down bar to show demand with a strong close and volume to support it. The close on the second bar doesn't have to be higher than the high of the first bar but it needs to be close to it.

Nah, not full time I still have a job.
  • #25,018
  • Dec 9, 2013 4:03am Dec 9, 2013 4:03am
Thanks for your great feedback SimpleDev, good to apply the knowledge here and in the books onto the charts, will begin to start posting some charts soon with a bit more experience, good trades
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #25,019
  • Dec 10, 2013 8:05pm Dec 10, 2013 8:05pm
Can someone provide this indicator it?
http://charts.mql5.com/3/298/eurjpy-...-division4.png
  • #25,020
  • Dec 10, 2013 8:14pm Dec 10, 2013 8:14pm
http://charts.mql5.com/3/298/eurjpy-...-division4.png
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