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H1 Backlash

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited Dec 27, 2013 11:06am Dec 4, 2013 12:05pm | Edited Dec 27, 2013 11:06am
  •  diamonddbw
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 2,026 Posts
This thread is (for now) GbpUsd H4 charts ONLY. I still am looking at other pairs but using this method the GbpUsd has made an average of 4 pips for every -1 pips since June.


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++



Have been busy at work on H1 charts. What I'm going to show you here is nothing new. It's basically support & resistance on one hour charts. H1 charts look the same to everyone in the world except in India, I would imagine, since all, or most of India is 1/2 hour different then most other locations on earth.

The idea for this set up was presented to me by someone I call a friend, fxpivots. Although the core set up is not an exact match for his ideas, that is where I came up with this, so thank you fxpivots.

I'm hoping that I can get some help to suss out the basics presented here. One major improvement would be an EA to handle stops. The trade itself will can be handle comfortably (most of the time) using pending (limit) orders.

If you have any ideas I would appreciate the help. One thing I am 100% opposed to is charts that look like an acid trip. In other words, I currently use no indicators at all. I may add one that draws previous days hi/low and that's all I see that fits. If you have some crazy ideas about a bunch of indicators, please do not post here. Send the ideas to me via pm on FF. My main thrust is to keep this as simple as possible. I thank everyone in advance.

One other thing that will not be tolerated is 'pissing contests'. If you take issue with me or anyone else on this thread, please handle it elsewhere. Those that insist on insults & browbeating others will be booted.

Thanks,
Darryl

Before I talk about the set up, let me show you 2 screenshots that explain most of the basics of this set up.
• Lighter gray box is London open to close. Smaller darker gray box is first four hours of NY session.
• At this point most of my testing has been on EU.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: H1 Basic Set Up 1.png
Size: 140 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: H1 Basic Set Up 2.png
Size: 96 KB
  • Post #2
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  • Dec 4, 2013 12:57pm Dec 4, 2013 12:57pm
  •  TheMaxx
  • Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Trade. Review. Improve | 1,093 Posts
Quoting diamonddbw
Disliked
H1 charts look the same to everyone in the world except in India, I would imagine, since all, or most of India is 1/2 hour different then most other locations on earth.
Ignored
Shouldn't you be trading M30 charts then?
 
 
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:07pm Dec 4, 2013 1:07pm
  •  diamonddbw
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 2,026 Posts
Quoting TheMaxx
Disliked
{quote} Shouldn't you be trading M30 charts then?
Ignored
Hey Maxx. You're welcome to test M30 charts if you like. I have no results for that TF.

I will be posting current charts as I see the various levels.

Right now I watch AJ, AU, EA, EG, EJ, EU, GA, GJ & GU. Am also interested in some other pairs but this is all I've really looked at so far. I've checked out EN & GN a little. They are just too scary for H1, Maybe dailies on those.
 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Dec 4, 2013 3:02pm Dec 4, 2013 3:02pm
  •  diamonddbw
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 2,026 Posts
This is GJ current SS to show levels & performance for this week.

• I currently define a swing level as being 5 bars. High or low point with 2 bars either side being lower for swing highs or higher for swing lows.

• Green, & light blue lines are H1 swing highs. Orange are swing lows. This makes it easy for me to do a visual check of what I'm looking for.

• If it's green or blue I'm waiting for price to pass through swing level and have at least one COMPLETE H1 candle (wicks and all) close a minimum of 4pips above swing level price.

• If bar is orange, I'm waiting for price to pass through swing level and have at least one COMPLETE H1 candle (wicks and all) close a minimum of 4pips below swing level price.

• Check marks indicate winners, X's losers. On GJ (for now) I use 30p Target & SL. Numbers include spread of about 4. I still use +15 as BE level.

• Thicker lines indicate completed trades.

• Levels are only use once in my testing.

The loss was last week so this week would have 3 W's & one BE.

My testing on all nine pairs only includes about 80 trades. I've yet to find any pair with more then 2 consecutive losses. My take on this is that you will unlikely have a large number of consecutive losers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: GJ H1 12-4-13.png
Size: 17 KB
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • Dec 5, 2013 2:58pm Dec 5, 2013 2:58pm
  •  dannyrose
  • | Additional Username | Joined Oct 2013 | 52 Posts
Quoting diamonddbw
Disliked
This is GJ current SS to show levels & performance for this week. • I currently define a swing level as being 5 bars. High or low point with 2 bars either side being lower for swing highs or higher for swing lows. • Green, & light blue lines are H1 swing highs. Orange are swing lows. This makes it easy for me to do a visual check of what I'm looking for. • If it's green or blue I'm waiting for price to pass through swing level and have at least one COMPLETE H1 candle (wicks and all) close a minimum of 4pips above swing level price. • If bar is orange,...
Ignored
This looks like a basic breakout and retest system with a twist. It should work fine. If you need anything automating let me know, I can code auto stops/ break even/ exits eas.
Shampoo for my real friends
 
 
  • Post #6
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  • Dec 5, 2013 8:47pm Dec 5, 2013 8:47pm
  •  Sarythsaya
  • | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Building Edge SandwEdges | 280 Posts
Great work there Darryl, you have my attention and support!
Enter Signature
 
 
  • Post #7
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  • Dec 6, 2013 5:31pm Dec 6, 2013 5:31pm
  •  diamonddbw
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 2,026 Posts
Quoting dannyrose
Disliked
{quote} This looks like a basic breakout and retest system with a twist. It should work fine. If you need anything automating let me know, I can code auto stops/ break even/ exits eas.
Ignored
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Thanks Danny. For now am looking for an EA to manage trade once I open manually. Basically after X# of pips to move the stop to BE or perhaps change the stop to trailing.
 
 
  • Post #8
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  • Dec 6, 2013 5:59pm Dec 6, 2013 5:59pm
  •  diamonddbw
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 2,026 Posts
Quoting Sarythsaya
Disliked
Great work there Darryl, you have my attention and support!
Ignored
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Hey S. Thanks. I'll need all the help I can get.


I've already stopped working on H! for now and have switched my focus to H4.


• H1 @ 1:1 Reward to Risk, can get caught in rangebound markets.


• H4 is beginning to look as if many pairs will be able to trade @ 3:2 or better and work out quite well.


Surprising as it sounds, the best pair so far is the H4 EurGbp. Using a 30p target (approx 32 counting spread) with a 20p stop (approx 18 without spread). Four EG trades triggered this week, normal is 2 or 3. Since mid August there were 32 opportunities. 14 were full wins, 8 were partial wins and 10 were losses.


I will have more stats by Monday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: EG H4 12-6-13.png
Size: 38 KB
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Dec 6, 2013 6:05pm Dec 6, 2013 6:05pm
  •  diamonddbw
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 2,026 Posts
Quoting diamonddbw
Disliked
{quote} ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Hey S. Thanks. I'll need all the help I can get. I've already stopped working on H! for now and have switched my focus to H4. • H1 @ 1:1 Reward to Risk, can get caught in rangebound markets. • H4 is beginning to look as if many pairs will be able to trade @ 3:2 or better and work out quite well. Surprising as it sounds, the best pair so far is the H4 EurGbp. Using a 30p target (approx 32 counting spread) with a 20p stop (approx 18 without spread). Four EG trades triggered this week, normal is 2 or 3. Since...
Ignored

The H4 chart shown here is from Oanda.
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Dec 7, 2013 7:51am Dec 7, 2013 7:51am
  •  dannyrose
  • | Additional Username | Joined Oct 2013 | 52 Posts
Quoting diamonddbw
Disliked
{quote} ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Thanks Danny. For now am looking for an EA to manage trade once I open manually. Basically after X# of pips to move the stop to BE or perhaps change the stop to trailing.
Ignored
This should do it. Place a trade manually and it places an initial stop loss and a takeprofit. If you set the breakeven setting to anything other than 0 then it will move to break even after that number of pips. The trailing stop is a traditional trailing stop, set to anything other than 0 to use it. The candle trail will trail behind the last n number of candles. Set it to anything other than 0 and it will trail behind whatever you set it to, think "3 bar trail". Use whole pips for the settings.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Diamonddbw trade manager ea.mq4   4 KB | 406 downloads
Shampoo for my real friends
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Dec 7, 2013 11:35am Dec 7, 2013 11:35am
  •  diamonddbw
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 2,026 Posts
Quoting dannyrose
Disliked
{quote} This should do it. Place a trade manually and it places an initial stop loss and a takeprofit. If you set the breakeven setting to anything other than 0 then it will move to break even after that number of pips. The trailing stop is a traditional trailing stop, set to anything other than 0 to use it. The candle trail will trail behind the last n number of candles. Set it to anything other than 0 and it will trail behind whatever you set it to, think "3 bar trail". Use whole pips for the settings. {file}
Ignored
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Awesome Danny. I appreciate it.
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Dec 7, 2013 1:27pm Dec 7, 2013 1:27pm
  •  dannyrose
  • | Additional Username | Joined Oct 2013 | 52 Posts
Quoting diamonddbw
Disliked
{quote} ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Awesome Danny. I appreciate it.
Ignored
No problem. If there are any errors or you would like anything else added just let me know.
Shampoo for my real friends
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Dec 7, 2013 2:31pm Dec 7, 2013 2:31pm
  •  diamonddbw
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 2,026 Posts
Trading H4 or even H1, you will have trades that involve rollover spread spikes. Many brokers can have large spikes up to 15p or even more on some exotics. All Gbp pairs can get crazy during this time. So any open trades you have from about one hour before to one hour after NY close (5pm eastern) you need to be prepared for this.

Pairs like EU & AU are not as prone to double digit spreads during rollover in what I've monitored. To help you get a handle on what to expect leave the attached indicator on an open chart during this time period. Default settings are fine unless you choose to change the colors to suit your chart.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Spread_Detective.ex4   17 KB | 372 downloads
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Dec 8, 2013 11:52am Dec 8, 2013 11:52am
  •  diamonddbw
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 2,026 Posts
Just completed visual backtest of H4 GU & EG through June of this year. The first part of the year was much more volatile then the last half so I did not include it at this time.

GbpUsd 51 Trades:
• 17 Full Wins (100p ea)
• 13 Partial Wins (averaging approx. 30p ea)
• 11 Full Losses (50p ea)

The GU was quite consistent no matter what month, including summer. The main thing this backtest does not take into account is news spread spikes. I'm certain this could have an overall affect on the results. However simple math will tell you there is plenty of wiggle room between the win column (approx. 2000p) & the loss column (approx. 550p).

The EurGbp did not fair nearly as well.
EurGbp 50 Trades:

• 13 Full Wins (30p ea)

• 16 Partial Wins (averaging approx. 10p ea)

• 11 Full Losses (20p ea)


The EG did very good except for June thru August. That time period was barely profitable. It may just be that EG is a good pair to avoid trading H4 during summer months.


I'm still open to suggestions regarding take profit & stop loss moving.


The numbers I'm using for moving the stop loss now are:

GU stop loss goes to;

• -40 @ +25

• BE @ +40

• +15 @ +50

• + 35 @ + 70 and a 35p trailing stop to target of 100.


EG stop loss goes to;

• BE @ +14 and trailing stop from there.


Next I will test the H4 EU


Anyone that cares to test results for other pairs that would be great.


 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Dec 8, 2013 3:29pm Dec 8, 2013 3:29pm
  •  diamonddbw
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 2,026 Posts
Just finished EU H4 from June this year until last Friday.

EU 41 Trades:
• 16 Full Wins (50p ea)
• 16 Partial Wins (averaging approx. 15p ea)
• 9 Full Losses (30p ea)

Performance was consistent for each month.

Will look @ AU next.
 
 
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Dec 8, 2013 4:51pm Dec 8, 2013 4:51pm
  •  ttskyway
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Member | 22 Posts
Quoting dannyrose
Disliked
{quote} This should do it. Place a trade manually and it places an initial stop loss and a takeprofit. If you set the breakeven setting to anything other than 0 then it will move to break even after that number of pips. The trailing stop is a traditional trailing stop, set to anything other than 0 to use it. The candle trail will trail behind the last n number of candles. Set it to anything other than 0 and it will trail behind whatever you set it to, think "3 bar trail". Use whole pips for the settings. {file}
Ignored

Hello Danny: Thank you for sharing the EA. I will try it on demo. I've been looking for a simple EA to manage the trades.
I do have some questions if you could... does the EA also work with multiple positions of multiple currency pairs?
Would it be too much to add options to "close all" trades at amount of profit/loss of a pair and at the amount of profit/loss of all open positions.
Thanks again Danny.
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Dec 8, 2013 5:16pm Dec 8, 2013 5:16pm
  •  diamonddbw
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 2,026 Posts
EU Potential Buy Set Up:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: EU Buy Op 12-8-13.png
Size: 16 KB
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Dec 8, 2013 5:30pm Dec 8, 2013 5:30pm
  •  diamonddbw
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 2,026 Posts
EG Potential Buy Set Up:

No pending order set until current H4 bar closes minimum of 5p above 8380 level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: EG Buy Op 12-8-13.png
Size: 18 KB
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Dec 9, 2013 12:19pm Dec 9, 2013 12:19pm
  •  diamonddbw
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 2,026 Posts
Oanda Chart

• 100p Target
• 50p Stop
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: GU Buy Op 12-9-13.png
Size: 21 KB
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Dec 9, 2013 12:32pm Dec 9, 2013 12:32pm
  •  diamonddbw
  • Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Member | 2,026 Posts
Canceling EG H4 trade set up from yesterday:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: EG Trade Cancel 12-8-13.png
Size: 15 KB
 
 
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