There is no Holy Grail | Page 5 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The HOLY GRAIL 130 replies

Developing the "Holy Grail" Trading System 4 replies

Holy grail trading system wanted, or nearest thing to it! 43 replies

Why is there no Traders Holy Grail? 41 replies

The Search for the Holy Grail 1 reply

Attachments: There is no Holy Grail
Exit Attachments

There is no Holy Grail

  • #81
  • Dec 8, 2013 10:48am Dec 8, 2013 10:48am
Quoting Lib3rty
If a larger account does not put the probability of success higher than that of a small account, how come Brokers do not offer demo accounts with a $2000 starting pot? Answer is msot people would blow the sum very fast and get a negative impression of Forex.
That's bullshit, sir.
Let alone you seem to have no clue about probabilities you even haven't seen a demo with 2000$
No, that's actually sad...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #82
  • Dec 8, 2013 12:59pm Dec 8, 2013 12:59pm
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} That's bullshit, sir. Let alone you seem to have no clue about probabilities you even haven't seen a demo with 2000$ No, that's actually sad...
It's not just about math, it's psychology. People want to trade to make good money and almost everyone I have spoken to trading a small account take on positions too large. The "get rich quick" mentality kicks in for many.
  • #83
  • Dec 8, 2013 1:29pm Dec 8, 2013 1:29pm
Quoting Lib3rty
{quote} It's not just about math, it's psychology. People want to trade to make good money and almost everyone I have spoken to trading a small account take on positions too large. The "get rich quick" mentality kicks in for many.
That's cause they didn't study psychology as you mentioned.

Many times I said already - think twice before making a general statement you don't know for sure you're right in.
You'd better read stuff here first and a LOT of it.
Then ask questions.
Only then make statements and ONLY if you have some prove to represent in case someone disagrees.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #84
  • Dec 8, 2013 2:05pm Dec 8, 2013 2:05pm
There is a Grail, it's just to simple for anyone to actually do, PayPal me £5000 and I'll tell all!!


Anyone ?? No Dratts


Okay here it is :-

When the market is going up, go long and hold until the market isn't going up any more.

When the market is going down, go short and hold until the market isn't going down any more.


It really is that simple, the hard part is letting it be that simple.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #85
  • Dec 8, 2013 2:07pm Dec 8, 2013 2:07pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I agree. I remember when I would be all exited when I made money and kick the dog when I lost money. Getting past that is what makes one a professional, I think.
Yes, trades need to be taken effortlessly…...we know it is only about probability….. we run a business…. we do not care to be right, we leave that to the ego driven…..
Our system will be our edge……once found the one that make sense to us……..

What does make sense to us? we need to find out……nobody can find that for us….

Myself, I think trading the 35 ticks chart (equivalent to the 30 sec) is so fascinating, but it stresses me out. I love being in the market most of the time, but not on the screen all the time, I take my bet and I am off doing other things that interest me…..
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #86
  • Dec 8, 2013 2:08pm Dec 8, 2013 2:08pm
Quoting Lib3rty
{quote} It's not just about math, it's psychology. People want to trade to make good money and almost everyone I have spoken to trading a small account take on positions too large. The "get rich quick" mentality kicks in for many.

I actually think this is true, about the small accounts, hell, GUILTY!!

BUT Everyone I know who's trading a large 25K and 100K account has done exactly the same and blown it, just like someone with a $500 account if not faster.



So if you accept, your pretty much always going to blow your first account, then do you start with $500 or 25K ??
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #87
  • Dec 8, 2013 2:25pm Dec 8, 2013 2:25pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I actually think this is true, about the small accounts, hell, GUILTY!!
Oh, shame on you, Turv!!!
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #88
  • Dec 8, 2013 2:27pm Dec 8, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Oh, shame on you, Turv!!!
No it's true, but rich people with 25K or 100K do the exact same, my $500 is worth what there 25K is to them after all, so they try just as hard to get to the 1 Mil over night.

So it's a pointless arguement.


Learn with $500 and turn it into a million, if you lose it, no big deal, top it back up and repeat, if you slap your lifes savings and a few other peoples and lose that, ecccckkk!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #89
  • Dec 8, 2013 2:33pm Dec 8, 2013 2:33pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} No it's true, but rich people with 25K or 100K do the exact same, my $500 is worth what there 25K is to them after all, so they try just as hard to get to the 1 Mil over night. So it's a pointless arguement. Learn with $500 and turn it into a million, if you lose it, no big deal, top it back up and repeat, if you slap your lifes savings and a few other peoples and lose that, ecccckkk!!
All I said is that 'amount-of-money-related' stuff is purely psychological.
Surely one should never sell his house to get a trading acc...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #90
  • Dec 9, 2013 12:07pm Dec 9, 2013 12:07pm
Quoting Lib3rty
{quote} It's not just about math, it's psychology. People want to trade to make good money and almost everyone I have spoken to trading a small account take on positions too large. The "get rich quick" mentality kicks in for many.
True, and without exercising proper MM, having/not having an edge becomes irrelevant, as the likely result is invariably blown account.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #91
  • Dec 12, 2013 1:40am Dec 12, 2013 1:40am
I agree with thread starter, If there was holy grail trading system, all money of the world will be earned by one trader ...
  • #92
  • Edited 8:23pm Dec 12, 2013 8:10pm | Edited 8:23pm
Quoting Algorithmus
I agree with thread starter, If there was holy grail trading system, all money of the world will be earned by one trader ...
Why?

There is no 100% winrate system.I think we can all agree on that, there will be always something unexpected which will put some losses even to the best system in the world.

However a HG to me is just the most optimal system there is.In mathematical terms, the system with the most expectacy aka:

WINRATE = NUMBER OF WINNER TRADES / TOTAL NR OF TRADES

RISK = AVERAGE CASH LOST = (Σ PROFIT OF LOSING TRADES) / TOTAL NR OF LOSING TRADES
REWARD = AVERAGE CASH WON =(Σ PROFIT OF WINNER TRADES) / TOTAL NR OF WINNER TRADES

EXPECTANCY = WINRATE* REWARD - (1-WINRATE) *RISK

That means that however you calibrate the winrate and RR ratio, you get the most optimal result.If the expectancy is positive you earn cash, if negative you lose cash.So the higher the expectancy the better the system ,the more money you earn with it.

The best system i was able to put together had an expectancy around 0.05 unit of cash /trade.It is quite good, and dont expect some miraculous system.But if unstable and the WINRATE or the RR has a very very unstable results then you cant really predict your expected profit.

So i suggest anyone who trades that even if your expectancy is not that good, be sure it is positive and be sure it is predictable.In other words, calculate the standard deviation of the winrate and the RR and hope that the STDEV to be under 0.5 σ in both cases, it other words very close to the mean calculated above.

I dare everyone to calculate your expectancy on your system,and post it here, let's see how close you are to the HOLY GRAIL!!!!

So, if you have an expectancy of alteast 1 full unit.You can consider your system a HOLY GRAIL, or atleast to my standards, because the likelyhood of losing money with an expectancy of 1 is smaller than get hit by a meteor 5 times in a row .That doesnt mean that it will have 100% WR because thats just half of the story, and very much impossible.But you will bring consistant profit with it forever, and thats enought i guess .

So even if some1 would own a system like this, he would not own all the cash in the world because it is impossible to have a winrate of 100%, so the market is safe.But an expectancy over 0 is already a good start for the quest of the HG.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #93
  • Dec 13, 2013 7:20am Dec 13, 2013 7:20am
holy grail maybe means high probability setup with lower risk n not too greed reward?

i do not fully understand the meaning of holy grail..
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #94
  • Dec 13, 2013 7:34am Dec 13, 2013 7:34am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Why? There is no 100% winrate system.I think we can all agree on that, there will be always something unexpected which will put some losses even to the best system in the world. However a HG to me is just the most optimal system there is.In mathematical terms, the system with the most expectacy aka: WINRATE = NUMBER OF WINNER TRADES / TOTAL NR OF TRADES RISK = AVERAGE CASH LOST = (Σ PROFIT OF LOSING TRADES) / TOTAL NR OF LOSING TRADES REWARD = AVERAGE CASH WON =(Σ PROFIT OF WINNER TRADES) / TOTAL NR OF WINNER TRADES EXPECTANCY...
How can you be certain or your risk-reward ratio when the outcome (reward) is a random event?. The risk can be known but never the reward. Therefore you can never rely on the current expectancy for the future. Mr. Tharp's work has the appearance of solid math and logic but is totally useless in actual practice.
  • #95
  • Dec 13, 2013 8:04am Dec 13, 2013 8:04am
Quoting Mingary
Mr. Tharp's work has the appearance of solid math and logic but is totally useless in actual practice.
Dunno about his math but psychological part is pretty good...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #96
  • Dec 13, 2013 6:26pm Dec 13, 2013 6:26pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} How can you be certain or your risk-reward ratio when the outcome (reward) is a random event?. The risk can be known but never the reward. Therefore you can never rely on the current expectancy for the future. Mr. Tharp's work has the appearance of solid math and logic but is totally useless in actual practice.
Yes it is a random event, or lets say half random because it depends on your winrate in some cases.I would disagree with your about the risk can be known and reward too.If you preemptively put your SL and TP you no longer have a variable RR, and you make the biggest mistake you can make in trading = trying to fit the market to your strategy when it should be done vice-versa.If you put your SL and TP according to your strategy, maybe even use a trail stop, which is unpredictable because it depends on the price.Then you have the random setup i was talking about, but still if you do a test on a decent sample you can still predict your likely expectancy.If the STDEV of your WR and RR is very small (as closest to the mean as possible) and your expectancy is positive.There is just nothing in the universe that can disrupt your strategy now.

Suppose you have 30 year historical data and your results show 60% winrate and ~ 1:1 RR to your strategy.And the STDEV of both your R R and your WR is less than 0.5 sigma, perhaps even smaller, so not much fluctuations.What are the chances of not being profitable in any year of it? Almost none.
Since if nothing could disrupt your strategy in 30 years what makes your think there can something happen which will disrupt it in the 31th year?
So that gives you a rock solid strategy which is very likely that it will be profitable (atleast) in your lifetime
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #97
  • Dec 13, 2013 7:54pm Dec 13, 2013 7:54pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Why? There is no 100% winrate system.I think we can all agree on that, there will be always something unexpected which will put some losses even to the best system in the world. However a HG to me is just the most optimal system there is.In mathematical terms, the system with the most expectacy aka: WINRATE = NUMBER OF WINNER TRADES / TOTAL NR OF TRADES RISK = AVERAGE CASH LOST = (Σ PROFIT OF LOSING TRADES) / TOTAL NR OF LOSING TRADES REWARD = AVERAGE CASH WON =(Σ PROFIT OF WINNER TRADES) / TOTAL NR OF WINNER TRADES EXPECTANCY...

It is impossible to post expectancy on a system with infinite expectancy. That would be attempting to predict the future, which is a fool's errand.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #98
  • Dec 13, 2013 8:48pm Dec 13, 2013 8:48pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} It is impossible to post expectancy on a system with infinite expectancy. That would be attempting to predict the future, which is a fool's errand.

Sorry i dont understant what you mean by that ? Can you please detail it.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #99
  • Dec 13, 2013 10:54pm Dec 13, 2013 10:54pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} It is impossible to post expectancy on a system with infinite expectancy. That would be attempting to predict the future, which is a fool's errand.
Wouldn't it be same 'attempting to predict the future, which is fool's errand' to trade a system at all then - kinda like predicting stuff: up, down, SL, TP...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #100
  • Dec 13, 2013 10:59pm Dec 13, 2013 10:59pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Sorry i dont understant what you mean by that ? Can you please detail it.
Proxy, if I were you I wouldn't expect much from these two...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
0 traders viewing now