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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #12,521
  • Dec 6, 2013 12:09pm Dec 6, 2013 12:09pm
Quoting halkins
{quote} Let’s face the truth. Bears were fighting like hell, but failed. Only this week we had 4 strong attempts to bring the price lower, but it only activated more buyers. (1H charts) -------------------- The problem now and for all upcoming weeks is that we will not be able to properly interpret data. Each data release will be nothing else but a coin toss. Today, for the first two hours after positive NFP, traders were buying dollar. Then some of them woke up and said; WTF, if were going so well, FED will close QE3 program sooner then we expected…....
that would be fine by me....im scaling in sm shorts...c what happens ...
  • #12,522
  • Dec 6, 2013 12:26pm Dec 6, 2013 12:26pm
I am new here. Can someone answer this for me.How can there excellent economic news for US and then the dollar gets squeezed like that on EurUsd. Seems like everytime there is NFP report it goes opposite of economic news. I think china is behind it doing everything possible to weaken the dollar. I here I sit -609 pips when I should have traded usdjpy.
  • #12,523
  • Dec 6, 2013 12:41pm Dec 6, 2013 12:41pm
Quoting rokon76
I am new here. Can someone answer this for me.How can there excellent economic news for US and then the dollar gets squeezed like that on EurUsd. Seems like everytime there is NFP report it goes opposite of economic news. I think china is behind it doing everything possible to weaken the dollar. I here I sit -609 pips when I should have traded usdjpy.
Hi rokon,

download here the first indicator and watch on monthly/weekly. (marketprofileDWM)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...14#post7139814

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post7141406
  • #12,524
  • Dec 6, 2013 12:47pm Dec 6, 2013 12:47pm
Quoting rokon76
I am new here. Can someone answer this for me.How can there excellent economic news for US and then the dollar gets squeezed like that on EurUsd. Seems like everytime there is NFP report it goes opposite of economic news. I think china is behind it doing everything possible to weaken the dollar. I here I sit -609 pips when I should have traded usdjpy.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post7140557
  • #12,525
  • Dec 6, 2013 1:24pm Dec 6, 2013 1:24pm
Quoting rokon76
I am new here. Can someone answer this for me.How can there excellent economic news for US and then the dollar gets squeezed like that on EurUsd. Seems like everytime there is NFP report it goes opposite of economic news. I think china is behind it doing everything possible to weaken the dollar. I here I sit -609 pips when I should have traded usdjpy.
Accept and advice ... "FORGET THE NEWS" ... they are only triggers, that's all, if you look up here, some days ago .. you will find 'the numbers', also take a look at the graphs ... this is only a 'clean the desk' operation ... now that EVERYONE things that this is for going higher ... and they know how to lie (lookup at today close ... will be near 1.37 or a little over it) ... so I BED you that when we get near 1.3650 on Sunday/Monday ...you will see lot of people screaming "Go long, Go long!!" ... and then ... drop! ..
  • #12,526
  • Dec 6, 2013 3:21pm Dec 6, 2013 3:21pm
Quoting rbetancor
{quote} so I BED you that when we get near 1.3650 on Sunday/Monday ...you will see lot of people screaming "Go long, Go long!!" ... and then ... drop! ..


Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,527
  • Dec 6, 2013 3:50pm Dec 6, 2013 3:50pm
Thanks for the advice guys. Trying to make a little extra cash in this business but down around 20k last 5 years.

Hilarious cartoon there pipstrader....

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  • #12,528
  • Dec 6, 2013 4:36pm Dec 6, 2013 4:36pm
Quoting rbetancor
Well .. as metioned days before ... all longs closed, opened a small shell position with target around 1.3419 1.37053 it's a max I have on my calcs for today or Sunday opening ... so doesn't matter ... it's sell time till 1.3419 zone Will have to reach 1.3419 in 3W ... and should be there soon ... could extend till 1.3180 on H4, but for that we need to see what happens on the reaction zone of 1.3419-1.3450 zone. That's all for this week ... have a good weekend!

well this count would favor a situation, where FED does not taper immediately in January, but maybe later in 2014?
  • #12,529
  • Dec 6, 2013 5:25pm Dec 6, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting rokon76
I am new here. Can someone answer this for me.How can there excellent economic news for US and then the dollar gets squeezed like that on EurUsd. Seems like everytime there is NFP report it goes opposite of economic news. I think china is behind it doing everything possible to weaken the dollar. I here I sit -609 pips when I should have traded usdjpy.
Shortly;
The biggest problem with USD is current QE3 program.
The whole paradox is a good data for USD will/should strengthen the currency, but this automatically means QE3 withdrawal soon, which is bad for USD.
Either way it's fcked up...
Stay out of the news
http://assets.forexfactory.net/image...im/whew%21.gif
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  • #12,530
  • Dec 6, 2013 5:30pm Dec 6, 2013 5:30pm
Quoting halkins
{quote} Let’s face the truth. Bears were fighting like hell, but failed. Only this week we had 4 strong attempts to bring the price lower, but it only activated more buyers. (1H charts) -------------------- The problem now and for all upcoming weeks is that we will not be able to properly interpret data. Each data release will be nothing else but a coin toss. Today, for the first two hours after positive NFP, traders were buying dollar. Then some of them woke up and said; WTF, if we're going so well, FED will close QE3 program sooner then we expected…....

Hi Halkins,

as noticed this week, the attempts to the downside were rather weak and based on volume analysis without much of engagement.

Tapering should lead to stronger USD, because it is deflationary. Assets are in a liquidity bubble. Even a suuuuuuuuuper strong economy can not account for this blown up equity prices. Investors (or shall I say dreamers)are in the state of denial (all is good). Good news are good for prices and bad news are veven better for prices. Only matter of time when this house of cards will collapse.

zerohedge wrote, regarding the schizophrenic move today:

"But the USD strength implied JPY weakness and that just provided the momo ignition for carry traders to lift stocks 1% straight up as the heads-I-win, tails-you-lose trade continues" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...enic-dysphoria


3715 is almost there, let it be even 3750

But to caution: with every pip higher, chances get higher, that EU is developing quite another bullish move with far higher targets than discussed here. In this case, we likely will see 1.40 or above
  • #12,531
  • Dec 6, 2013 5:41pm Dec 6, 2013 5:41pm
Quoting rokon76
I am new here. Can someone answer this for me.How can there excellent economic news for US and then the dollar gets squeezed like that on EurUsd. Seems like everytime there is NFP report it goes opposite of economic news. I think china is behind it doing everything possible to weaken the dollar. I here I sit -609 pips when I should have traded usdjpy.

Let me allow to answer your question out of the sight of an Elliott Wave analyst:

price is simply the reflection of social mood. We know scientifically, that change in social mood does not need necessarily an extrinsic factor. Also the maintenance of a certain level in social mood does not need an extrinsic factor. It can be self-sustainable.

You can see it in the markets over and over again:

one and the same message is sometimes interpreted bullish, the other time bearish, in order to justify a bullish or bearish move.
  • #12,532
  • Dec 6, 2013 5:51pm Dec 6, 2013 5:51pm
Quoting halkins
{quote} Shortly; The biggest problem with USD is current QE3 program. The whole paradox is a good data for USD will/should strengthen the currency, but this automatically means QE3 withdrawal soon, which is bad for USD. Either way it's fcked up... Stay out of the news {image}

tapering is good for USD, because it is deflationary
  • #12,533
  • Dec 7, 2013 4:35am Dec 7, 2013 4:35am
Quote
Then some of them woke up and said; WTF, if we're going so well, FED will close QE3 program sooner then we expected…. and began selling USD.

Whoever thinks this should certainly completly reconstruct his fundamental views of Macro economics especially the one bound to financial markets.
I can believe that many traders do think that way becouse there certainly was a lot of expectation and surprise on Septembers "non-tappering" decision.
  • #12,534
  • Dec 7, 2013 6:21am Dec 7, 2013 6:21am
Quoting rbetancor
Well, today's intraday plan ... BUY @1.35685 TG 1.36624 (Buy alredy in, just some minutes ago) PO SELL @1.3660 TG 1.3419 PO SELL @1.3548 TG 1.3419
Hi!as i see your sell order was reached or you close this two position( PO SELL @1.3660 TG 1.3419 PO SELL @1.3548 TG 1.3419[/quote]) somewhere?
  • #12,535
  • Dec 8, 2013 4:05am Dec 8, 2013 4:05am
Can Math Beat Financial Markets?

http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...ancial-markets
  • #12,536
  • Dec 8, 2013 4:35am Dec 8, 2013 4:35am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} tapering is good for USD, because it is deflationary
Red line if we get a taper
Orange line if we don't

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,537
  • Dec 8, 2013 5:02am Dec 8, 2013 5:02am
Well, in the meantime:

if we are not spied to death, droned to death, we certainly will have a radiant future:

Highest Radiation Level Ever, Lethal In 20 Minutes, Recorded Outside Fukushima Reactor


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...ushima-reactor
  • #12,538
  • Dec 8, 2013 5:05am Dec 8, 2013 5:05am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Red line if we get a taper Orange line if we don't {image}

as long as the outcome is the same they can do me a "Goetz von Berlichingen" LOL
  • #12,539
  • Dec 8, 2013 5:36am Dec 8, 2013 5:36am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} as long as the outcome is the same they can do me a "Goetz von Berlichingen" LOL
You mean like "er kann mich am Arsche lecken" ?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12,540
  • Dec 8, 2013 8:11am Dec 8, 2013 8:11am
Re: LIVE TRADE EXPLORERS and my conclusions at the end of 2013.

Hi guys

I have been experimenting a lot with Trade Explorer in 2013.
Not only I did it with my automatic trading, but I was following top LIVE trading accounts available in “trade” section here on FF.
If I found somebody who has consistent and steady profits I added him to my “buddies” and watched his trades.
I was astonished at the beginning seeing so many traders making over 500% in a single month.
During the year I used to add new people and removed many “good” traders blowing out their 1000% profit accounts in a single day.
Now, in December the leaderboard 2013 winners look completely different then in January 2013.
The traders left on the top are those with average profits around 150-300% in whole 2013, with only 2 traders above 300%.
What was interesting is most of them based their trades on hundreds of small pips trades (like 5-20pips) rather then
holding on to the positions for weeks and profiting 500-700pips.
It’s really worth to have a look, as the dashboard will be reset on 31/DEC and the game will start again.

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