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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #6,361
  • Dec 5, 2013 11:29am Dec 5, 2013 11:29am
Quoting iwavetrade
Ian, you've got to be very wealthy...
hahah, u too must be.
looks like u an experienced ew trader.
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #6,362
  • Dec 5, 2013 11:43am Dec 5, 2013 11:43am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} its not it seems
Wat?
  • #6,363
  • Dec 5, 2013 11:45am Dec 5, 2013 11:45am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} its not it seems
I was wrong as I expected uptrend line break and at the moment it seems that the trend is not over . This is a terminal impulse ? If yes , which wave is extended 3 or 5 ?
  • #6,364
  • Dec 5, 2013 11:47am Dec 5, 2013 11:47am
Quoting iwavetrade
{quote} Wat?
i don't know how to reply...about u wealthy or about ldt?
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #6,365
  • Dec 5, 2013 11:50am Dec 5, 2013 11:50am
Quoting ovidiu_gnt
{quote} I was wrong as I expected uptrend line break and at the moment it seems that the trend is not over . This is a terminal impulse ? If yes , which wave is extended 3 or 5 ?
like this u like?
http://charts.mql5.com/3/253/eurusd-...-division1.png

i can't upload and i can't add smiley and i cant edit my post. i dont know whats wrong with my ID
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #6,366
  • Dec 6, 2013 5:25am Dec 6, 2013 5:25am
I wanted to update as I suddenly saw a comment about NFP being announced (I don't really take any notice of it...) so thought I'd put out the analysis earlier to keep this structure updated.

Everything basically developing as expected. Yesterday's roller coaster was a bit of a shocker but within the (extreme) boundaries within the lower degree Wave b of Wave iii. I'll stick with the 1.3684 target but we've gotten within spitting distance so relatively satisfied. (I first made the 1.3684 target on the 21st November.) Because of NFP I'll repeat an earlier alternative of a move to 1.3720 but I'm not really keen on that. So once we've seen the Wave [iii] at 1.3684 - or a break below 1.3640 - we should see limited losses in Wave [iv]. I reckon the 1.3597-30 area is the ideal support but again, with NFP allow for as much as 1.3560. From here we should see gains develop in Wave [v] - in three waves - minimum target around 1.3776 and maximum could be above 1.3832. These are estimates as I'd need the actual Wave [iv] level to provide better target areas.

Assuming this is seen it will end this impulsive wave higher and cause a move back lower.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,367
  • Edited 7:10am Dec 6, 2013 6:43am | Edited 7:10am
Quoting Ian Copsey
I wanted to update as I suddenly saw a comment about NFP being announced (I don't really take any notice of it...) so thought I'd put out the analysis earlier to keep this structure updated. Everything basically developing as expected. Yesterday's roller coaster was a bit of a shocker but within the (extreme) boundaries within the lower degree Wave b of Wave iii. I'll stick with the 1.3684 target but we've gotten within spitting distance so relatively satisfied. (I first made the 1.3684 target on the 21st November.) Because of NFP I'll repeat an...
Considering that we have NFP, the market can do many surprises. This upward trend is likely to end somewhere around 1.3700 ( if it isn't finished yet ). After completion of this wave, I think we have a descent which reaches 1.3398, but will break the trend line of the ascending wave and will be composed of 5 waves. After moving descent, we had a climb beyond peak reached of the current wave, but not more than 1.3831 .
  • #6,368
  • Dec 6, 2013 8:11am Dec 6, 2013 8:11am
Quoting Ian Copsey
I wanted to update as I suddenly saw a comment about NFP being announced (I don't really take any notice of it...) so thought I'd put out the analysis earlier to keep this structure updated. Everything basically developing as expected. Yesterday's roller coaster was a bit of a shocker but within the (extreme) boundaries within the lower degree Wave b of Wave iii. I'll stick with the 1.3684 target but we've gotten within spitting distance so relatively satisfied. (I first made the 1.3684 target on the 21st November.) Because of NFP I'll repeat an...
I counted yesterday (with your spreadsheet) 1.3624 area for the end of wave iv....well it looks like we had ended the wave iv at 1.3619. Not bad!!
I still don't know exactly how you get the different retacement percentages in the different circumstances... but in this case I looked at Alternation at Wave ii and came to 1.3624.
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #6,369
  • Dec 6, 2013 11:52am Dec 6, 2013 11:52am
Failure to reach 1.3684 was a bit of a disappointment but I guess 7 points away isn't too bad. Nice drop into the Wave [iv] retracement area as mentioned above and now we're now moving higher in Wave [a] of Wave [v]. This is the more difficult part as we will have to judge how far this will go based on Wave [v] projections but without any matching higher degree projections there's no real concrete target. I could quote them but would prefer to observe the development. At this early stage the Wave [a] of Wave [v] looks like it could reach around 1.3750-75 area. Chart updated below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR60minuteWaveiiiampiv_zps1b9d990e.png Size: 195 KB
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,370
  • Dec 6, 2013 12:36pm Dec 6, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} I'm sorry but that doesn't seem to make sense... From 1.3523? The rally from there to 1.3613 was in 5-waves... and not 3. Plus, it hasn't corrected a prior directional move but moved to new highs - so can't be a corrective pattern.
I think that you are right Ian , now we have a movement with 5 segment . The down movement from yesterday, I think was the finalizing the wave 2 , in the ascending movement who begin at 1,3523 .
  • #6,371
  • Dec 6, 2013 12:45pm Dec 6, 2013 12:45pm
Quoting ovidiu_gnt
{quote} I think that you are right Ian , now we have a movement with 5 segment . The down movement from yesterday, I think was the finalizing the wave 2 , in the ascending movement who begin at 1,3523 .
I think that ascending movement will continue until in the area 1,3800 .
  • #6,372
  • Dec 6, 2013 7:56pm Dec 6, 2013 7:56pm
Quoting ovidiu_gnt
{quote} I think that ascending movement will continue until in the area 1,3800 .
Funnily enough yesterday's 1.3619 low was related to the 1.3317 Wave [ii] low and provided perfect alternation. I based the 1.3684 target (set on the 21st November) as a projection of Wave from the base of Wave [ii]. This target has been consistent throughout and I knew that if I was right about the 1.3684 target then the Wave [iv] would be shallow. I could also, at that time, generate estimated Wave [v] projections on the assumption that the 1.3684 target was met. This is just one of the benefits of Harmonic Elliott Wave.

I have no time for guessing when wild and fantastic counts will end. I can understand people using them because they've been told it's ok. However, 21 years ago they weren't in the EW toolkit and were "invented" as a means to try and justify a movement. However, every additional feature added (above which that R.N. Elliott proposed) has always been a 3-wave structure added on and none of them allow forecasting with any accuracy. They are totally retrospective and in all instances totally wrong.

All I have done is recognised how a 5-wave move should develop in terms of ratios (swing highs and lows are not always the terminal points) and noted that the wave relationships are between the 3-wave segments and not the 5-wave. It is just a huge benefit not to have to worry about extended waves, failed fifths, running corrections that last forever (they are just silly...) diagonal triangles (as HEW is all about diagonal triangles - that's the permanent structure.) HEW gives structure and in a more objective way (not 100% but imposes discipline in having to adhere to ratios), has far more logic in terms of first reversal moves, alternation (depth and complexity) and more consistent relationships between the wave degrees.

I hope the results I've achieved over the past 2 weeks or so have generated food for thought...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,373
  • Dec 6, 2013 10:56pm Dec 6, 2013 10:56pm
wave 3 characteristic usually have lots bearish div but short retrace too..
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #6,374
  • Dec 7, 2013 12:18am Dec 7, 2013 12:18am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} Funnily enough yesterday's 1.3619 low was related to the 1.3317 Wave low and provided perfect alternation. I based the 1.3684 target (set on the 21st November) as a projection of Wave from the base of Wave [ii]. This target has been consistent throughout and I knew that if I was right about the 1.3684 target then the Wave [iv] would be shallow. I could also, at that time, generate estimated Wave [v] projections on the assumption that the 1.3684 target was met. This is just [i]one of the benefits of Harmonic Elliott...
oanda broker has 1.3611 the other brokers only 1.3619
i think any move higher than 1.3711 will lure more buyer, reason is 2013 first top is there and monthly resistance is there and fib expansion 200 is there too
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #6,375
  • Edited 2:05am Dec 7, 2013 1:49am | Edited 2:05am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} oanda broker has 1.3611 the other brokers only 1.3619 i think any move higher than 1.3711 will lure more buyer, reason is 2013 first top is there and monthly resistance is there and fib expansion 200 is there too
But I knew the Wave [iv] retracement area back on the 21st November...

I used the same technique as I did in my book for the DOW. I knew approximately where the Wave (iii) had to be and forecast (in July 2010) that the DOW would reach 12,800 area and then see a 20% price drop before rallying to the 14K high. The 20% drop would be the Wave (iv)... and so it happened. In that Wave (iv) drop I focussed more on the S&P and said the maximum pullback would be at 1,076 - it stalled at 1,074.77 - that's a 0.1% deviation from target. (That forecast is in the video at the top right of my blog... towards the end...)

Wave (iv)'s are probably the simplest to forecast...

Below is the forecast - actually on the 20th & 21st November:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWaveiiiforecast_zps4510a163.png Size: 245 KB
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,376
  • Dec 7, 2013 2:22am Dec 7, 2013 2:22am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} But I knew the Wave [iv] retracement area back on the 21st November... I used the same technique as I did in my book for the DOW. I knew approximately where the Wave (iii) had to be and forecast (in July 2010) that the DOW would reach 12,800 area and then see a 20% price drop before rallying to the 14K high. The 20% drop would be the Wave (iv)... and so it happened. In that Wave (iv) drop I focussed more on the S&P and said the maximum pullback would be at 1,076 - it stalled at 1,074.77 - that's a 0.1% deviation from target. (That forecast...
when i look at the chart,
my old CEW mindset and HEW still crashing here
looks like i need to separate the thinking process.
its becoz very different theory 3 wave move and 5 wave move
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #6,377
  • Dec 7, 2013 2:28am Dec 7, 2013 2:28am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} when i look at the chart, my old CEW mindset and HEW still crashing here looks like i need to separate the thinking process. its becoz very different theory 3 wave move and 5 wave move
Watch: http://harmonicelliottwave.blogspot....structure.html

It does take a while to alter perception... once achieved it's impossible to move back... I can't make sense out of CEW... or maybe I can but I can't forecast accurately with it except retrospectively.
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,378
  • Dec 7, 2013 3:14am Dec 7, 2013 3:14am
Quoting Ian Copsey
{quote} Watch: http://harmonicelliottwave.blogspot....structure.html It does take a while to alter perception... once achieved it's impossible to move back... I can't make sense out of CEW... or maybe I can but I can't forecast accurately with it except retrospectively.

why u still using x on the chart above?
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #6,379
  • Dec 7, 2013 3:33am Dec 7, 2013 3:33am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} why u still using x on the chart above?
Because that's how to denote a corrective wave within multiple abc patterns.... That decline was a triple three...
No I haven't got the wave structure wrong! I've corrected it!
  • #6,380
  • Dec 7, 2013 12:13pm Dec 7, 2013 12:13pm
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} when i look at the chart, my old CEW mindset and HEW still crashing here looks like i need to separate the thinking process. its becoz very different theory 3 wave move and 5 wave move
It's hard to do at first. Takes some getting used to.
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