Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 184 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,661
  • Dec 4, 2013 9:24am Dec 4, 2013 9:24am
Quoting rohule
Alfonso, I hope you are great as always. im testing some pairs now in the FT2 but is very hard to test the trades and taking in consideration the big impact news. if you dont take the news while testing why whe need to take a look at the news in live trading? i think that we need to trade in the same way as we tested rigth? thank you and take care Ps can you please share your spreadsheet so i can have a better data.
Hello Roberto

While testing it's impossible to take news into account but when live testing I know that news affect results. I'm not just trading the HTFs but also intermmediate entries on H4 that could be easily broken with a big impact news. If you are trading levels within the D1 and above HTFs, with the curve's timeframe in the same direction as your entry, you should not worry about news, but if you are not (like me), you should. Just take a look at what happens when big news are released on levels not at the HTFs SD zones.

As far the spreadsheet it's being modified so I can't share it right now, thinking of quickest ways of doing things!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,662
  • Dec 4, 2013 9:54am Dec 4, 2013 9:54am
Hi Alfonso and others traders

I'm busy going over post 1 again and again. I thought you were kidding when u said it will take a lot of reading and screen time, I guess I have just begun

ok, I have enclosed usdchf 1hour chart and daily chart, as I am a day trader. Now,my question here would be, would price bounce of from the proximal line( meaning that the demand zone is valid) or go through invalid demand zone? From the template provided in #post 1, it included fractals indicator, which indicate when price is forming turning points. I have indicated those lower high and higher high with a a red cross and red tick respctively, I'm not sure if I did the right thing, but I assume that price could bounce from that proximl line, am I correct in saying that? By the way this was before the news announcement( ADP No farm employment change).

One other thing I looked, at daily chart and concluded that the trend is still up, as I did not see a series of supply zones being taken out. Can you please correct me, if I'm wrong.

Kind Regards


Abzozo
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: demand suplly usdchf.png Size: 99 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: daily demand suplly usdchf.png Size: 99 KB
  • #3,663
  • Dec 4, 2013 11:58am Dec 4, 2013 11:58am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hey there! Welcome to the thread... Let me answer your 3 questions. 1. MA-CCI indicator, no use for the strategy really, it's just there as a visual aid to see how MAs are on all timeframes, 100 EMA. CCI is not used at all 2. There are plenty of information on how to use the curve, a couple of videos on how to use the timeframe combinations. Please watch them, study them over and over 3. I am not using the ADR or ATR for the strategy. I used to use it when I was doing intraday and/or scaling, now I am not. Have a great day! Alfonso
Thanks Alfonso! Just one more...any practical use of the support resistance dotted lines in the strategy? I.e. how to consider those when defining SD zones, or trend, or whatever purpose they serve here on the template?
Please advise.
Tnx
  • #3,664
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:48pm Dec 4, 2013 1:48pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Raffae! Widths of the SD zones, how to draw them, etc, is all explained on first post. You will see many webinars that show dozens of examples, you need to take your time and do your homework, it's gonna take you quite some time, don't despair! Alfonso

Sorry i haven' t watch the video. I have only read the WRITE rule in your 1#post. I' m not english and for me is very difficult understand SPOKEN ENGLISH instead I understand the writed. thanks again
  • #3,665
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:49pm Dec 4, 2013 2:49pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hello Roberto While testing it's impossible to take news into account but when live testing I know that news affect results. I'm not just trading the HTFs but also intermmediate entries on H4 that could be easily broken with a big impact news. If you are trading levels within the D1 and above HTFs, with the curve's timeframe in the same direction as your entry, you should not worry about news, but if you are not (like me), you should. Just take a look at what happens when big news are released on levels not at the HTFs SD zones. As far...

Thank you so much Alfonso, i will be wating for the spreadsheet, please let me know if you need anithing.


have a good one
passion and discipline
  • #3,666
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:31am Dec 5, 2013 2:31am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Only proximal lines. If you heard the distal it must have been my mistake, sorry for that. In the past when I created the HTF spreadsheet I used to use the distal line, but it was a mistake. We use the proximal lines to calculate the % of the curve. Alfonso
Thank you Alfonso! You're doing a really nice work here!
  • #3,667
  • Dec 5, 2013 5:10am Dec 5, 2013 5:10am
Love SD trading!

Here is my view on the AU 1H. Just took this trade.

Full details of my trade:
http://app1.tradingconsistently.com/...0yMTkwNiZlPTE=

Let's see if it works out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot at Dec 05 21-57-11.png Size: 44 KB
  • #3,668
  • Edited 9:18am Dec 5, 2013 6:09am | Edited 9:18am
Hi SD traders,

Thank you Alfonso for your answer on my NZDUSD trade post.
Now I have a theoretical question about SD levels. I made a simplified price chart, where the supply levels are drawn with blue rectangles, and the real demand levels with red. As I understood levels drawn with lime are not real demand levels, because the price did not break any supply zone (check dashed lines left end). It means this picks are only higher highs. Is it true or this lime zones are tradeble?

Tnx
Attached Image
  • #3,669
  • Dec 5, 2013 8:22am Dec 5, 2013 8:22am
Hi Alfonso,

I'm reading your first post and watching your videos. I've got another question about SD zones in control. Do you allow a speed bump (rally-base-rally or drop-base-drop) to be an extreme of the SD curve, or should it always be a pick or a valley (rally-base-drop or drop-base-rally)?
  • #3,670
  • Edited 10:21am Dec 5, 2013 10:10am | Edited 10:21am
Quoting Serijbok
Hi SD traders, Thank you Alfonso for your answer on my NZDUSD trade post. Now I have a theoretical question about SD levels. I made a simplified price chart, where the supply levels are drawn with blue rectangles, and the real demand levels with red. As I understood levels drawn with lime are not real demand levels, because the price did not break any supply zone (check dashed lines left end). It means this picks are only higher highs. Is it true or this lime zones are tradeble? Tnx {image}
Well, lime zones go against the D1 and Monthly higher timeframes, since we're talking about that pair in particular.

You wan to trade against the D1 and the Monthly? I don't First you have to choose what type of trader you are, a trend trader or a counter-trend trader. The D1 is against you, Monthly supply in control. Do you think lime zones have higher probability to become swing trades that run for days? Ask yourself, you will get the answer

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,671
  • Dec 5, 2013 10:11am Dec 5, 2013 10:11am
Quoting dvarrin
Hi Alfonso, I'm reading your first post and watching your videos. I've got another question about SD zones in control. Do you allow a speed bump (rally-base-rally or drop-base-drop) to be an extreme of the SD curve, or should it always be a pick or a valley (rally-base-drop or drop-base-rally)?
The curve is measured from the extremes, valleys and peaks. You will take a CP pattern as part of the curve if you are on a trend, never against. Hope that solves the mystery

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,672
  • Dec 5, 2013 10:14am Dec 5, 2013 10:14am
Quoting lucariga
Hey Alfonso , just discovered this interesting thread. Many thanks for your effort I'd like to know everyone's opinion on USD/JPY WEEKLY/4H combo When price reached the weekly Supply zone we should have entered on 4H Supply (and resulted in a loss, but doesn't matter) is it correct? Now that price penetrated much further on Weekly Supply, what we have to do? Anyone on this short? Sorry for my english USD/JPY WEEKLY {image} 4H {image} OT: Why is this thread on commercial section?
Hey Alfonso, as you can see, now USD/JPY 4H has broken the trendline bouncing off a Weekly/4H Supply zone.
Are we now allowed to short?
What are the supply levels on this 4H chart?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ1.png Size: 38 KB
  • #3,673
  • Dec 5, 2013 10:27am Dec 5, 2013 10:27am
Hello fellow traders,

I will be holding a new free live webinar next Monday December 16th.

DATE: Monday 16th December 2013
TIME: 1 PM to 2:30 P.M Central European Time | 7 a.m to 8:30 a.m EST

What will this webinar cover?

  1. Trading with the bigger timeframes, trading with the trend
  2. Questions and Answers

If you haven't previously joined the free webinars, fill out the next form and you will receive the link to join after you confirm your email address. If you have already done that in the post, you should have received and email already.

LINK TO JOIN FREE WEBINARS: http://www.set-and-forget.com/free_webinars

Have a great day!
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,674
  • Dec 5, 2013 11:06am Dec 5, 2013 11:06am
My apologies if this is not the proper place to ask, but I've been really frustrated trying to figure out Forex Tester. It seems like it's missing some really basic functionality and I can't find anything in the documentation (or their forum) that addresses this.

I simply want to find out how to change the symbol of an existing chart (so I don't have to make completely new charts every time I want to change symbols) and whether or not there is a way to save a workspace. It seems like every time you want to do something in this software you have to create and setup all the charts from scratch.

Thanks.
  • #3,675
  • Dec 5, 2013 12:21pm Dec 5, 2013 12:21pm
Hi Serijbok,
Good Question.Please find the screenshot.The price move marked by Green is also a real demand structurally.Since it broke the supply marked in Blue Circle and made new high.
Attached Image
  • #3,676
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:18pm Dec 5, 2013 1:18pm
Quoting coolmoss
My apologies if this is not the proper place to ask, but I've been really frustrated trying to figure out Forex Tester. It seems like it's missing some really basic functionality and I can't find anything in the documentation (or their forum) that addresses this. I simply want to find out how to change the symbol of an existing chart (so I don't have to make completely new charts every time I want to change symbols) and whether or not there is a way to save a workspace. It seems like every time you want to do something in this software you have...
I had the same problem in the past, I asked FT2 guys by email and they gave me the answer. It's just that they did it in a very weird way, not user-friendly at all...

Let me paste what they told me in the past...

Each tick generation erases previous generated ticks. So if you want to generate ticks for multiply currencies, then you need to generate ticks for them at the same time. So please go to the History Mode, check necessary currency pairs and generate ticks for them (please see the screenshot).
Attached Image


You can open the project after generating ticks but note that list of currency pairs should be the same as it was, when you saved a project.

Please open "SymbolInfo.dat" file from your project’s folder (<Forex Tester/Projects/<project’s name> you can open such files with the help of “Right click -> Open with -> Notepad”.

in this file you will see records like:

AUDUSD
2010.02.22 16:51
2010.02.23 23:59
AUDJPY
2010.02.22 16:51
2010.02.23 23:59

it means that you need to generate ticks for AUDUSD and USDJPY symbols for 2010.02.22 16:51 - 2010.02.23 23:59 date range or wider. Note that ticks have to be generated for all necessary pairs simultaneously (all necessary pairs have to be selected in “Generate ticks” dialog).

So you need to check that you have ticks generated for all necessary currency pairs (but not for more pairs) for proper date range.

------------
What I did is downloading ALL pairs FT2 has, generated ticks for all of them... and now every time I save a project I can load it later if I am testing another pair. It works perfect like that.


Hope this helps to solve your problem.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,677
  • Dec 5, 2013 3:35pm Dec 5, 2013 3:35pm
Quoting Hrt
Hi Serijbok, Good Question.Please find the screenshot.The price move marked by Green is also a real demand structurally.Since it broke the supply marked in Blue Circle and made new high.
Thank you Hrt. I missunderstood the statement of the 1st post written by Alfonso about the trend definition: the higher highs not necessary means uptrend. The trend is up only when the price respect demand levels but breaks trough supply levels. This rule is used only to find the trend direction and not for finding demand levels. I was over complicated the process .
I hope now I am right and this post helps other beginers too.
  • #3,678
  • Dec 5, 2013 10:22pm Dec 5, 2013 10:22pm
Hi Seri,
What I have tried to explain is how do you find demand levels and not the trend itself. Finding trend and supply/demand levles are 2 different things.There can be demand/supply levels which you can trade against the bigger trend too.
  • #3,679
  • Dec 6, 2013 5:21am Dec 6, 2013 5:21am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} The curve is measured from the extremes, valleys and peaks. You will take a CP pattern as part of the curve if you are on a trend, never against. Hope that solves the mystery Alfonso
Your answer for sure solves the mystery :-) Thank you very much!
  • #3,680
  • Dec 10, 2013 1:57am Dec 10, 2013 1:57am
This is an IF THEN SCENARIO on EURSGD exotic pair.

  1. Both MN and D1 are in an uptrend. D1 supply with MN in an uptrend are not high odds
  2. IF D1 supply is removed we can have some longs on EURSGD. There is a new H4 demand zone formed right within the D1 supply and brand new D1 potential demand that would be confirmed IF we break above D1 supply at 1.7204
  3. The D1 supply level you pointed out had a little pullback, it didn't work "as expected". Well, I am not gonna say as expected, because markets can't be predicted, you know what I mean. But the logic was there not to take it, it would have been a loss
  4. But if now D1 supply is taken out, buying would be an option

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eursgd_d1.png Size: 139 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eursgd_h4.png Size: 137 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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