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  • #2,061
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:35pm Dec 5, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} keep a eye out on those INDEXES,
that's a big 10-4, good buddy. I don't like USO for a volatility scalp, it's too subdued. That said, I'd be tempted to take a punt at those cheapo $34.50 puts.

oil too dicey for me in this scenario: we may well get a shot of USD strength on a strrong NFP tomorrow that will tend to sink commods, but we're also right in the middle of a WTI demand flush. First deep freeze of the winter creeping west to east across the US as we speak and it is going to be a persistent one. 12d F at my shack this AM when I got up, brrr.

For me a better chance for profit on a big move off the NFP will be straight VIX (UVXY) or one of the leveraged index ETF's (SDS, SSO, etc)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,062
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:42pm Dec 5, 2013 2:42pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} that's a big 10-4, good buddy. I don't like USO for a volatility scalp, it's too subdued. That said, I'd be tempted to take a punt at those cheapo $34.50 puts. oil too dicey for me in this scenario: we may well get a shot of USD strength on a strrong NFP tomorrow that will tend to sink commods, but we're also right in the middle of a WTI demand flush. First deep freeze of the winter creeping west to east across the US as we speak and it is going to be a persistent one. 12d F at my shack this AM when I got up, brrr. For me a better chance...
USO is a pure technical reason to long the $35 puts and all I need is $34,75 tomorrow to be profitable. Its rejected of the 50 and 200 day that has converged together
  • #2,063
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:46pm Dec 5, 2013 2:46pm
This going to be so tight and I'm not going to get a chance to write but I may chance my arm early to long puts on SPY/IWM/GS a minute before the close

SPY needs to close under 179.06 IWM needs to close under 111.50 GS under $165.88
  • #2,064
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:49pm Dec 5, 2013 2:49pm
GS Goldman sachs order put in to long $160 puts at £3 per contract or 3c

GS Dec 2013 160.000 put (GS131206P00160000)
-OPR
0.03 0.00(0.00%) 20:17
  • #2,065
  • Dec 5, 2013 3:02pm Dec 5, 2013 3:02pm
in the end I did punt on USO, got the 12/6 $34.50 puts for $0.05. Maybe I'll be a hero.

Also in 12/6 UVXY $22c for $0.17.

So all straight downside...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,066
  • Dec 5, 2013 3:05pm Dec 5, 2013 3:05pm
Quoting The Fool
in the end I did punt on USO, got the 12/6 $34.50 puts for $0.05. Maybe I'll be a hero. Also in 12/6 UVXY $22c for $0.17. So all straight downside...
good luck, I'm long puts on spy / iwm / gs / uso / sbux
  • #2,067
  • Dec 5, 2013 3:52pm Dec 5, 2013 3:52pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} TSLA one of a few green stocks on my lists - just looking for some dippage so's to get a little put appreciation, only have to get to 12/13, looking at strikes $120 and lower
do r die on the last put leg, gotta get in a 12/13 put tomorrow, was just looking for some downside action, looks like it's coming on AH
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,068
  • Edited 4:48pm Dec 5, 2013 3:53pm | Edited 4:48pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} good luck, I'm long puts on spy / iwm / gs / uso / sbux
thanks, same to you. That shot at $34.50 for USO already looking like a bleeder, but for a nickel/share not that big a deal if it bites the dust...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,069
  • Dec 5, 2013 4:19pm Dec 5, 2013 4:19pm
Quoting The Fool
in the end I did punt on USO, got the 12/6 $34.50 puts for $0.05. Maybe I'll be a hero. Also in 12/6 UVXY $22c for $0.17. So all straight downside...
UVXY picked up ~$0.20 AH; looking at some of the bigger positive days, I see several $3-$4 jumps in the last few months. I'm looking for a jump from $20.60 to $23 or better for my $0.17 $22 calls to pay >$1.00...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,070
  • Dec 6, 2013 7:37am Dec 6, 2013 7:37am
big #s
either dollar strength continues through the open and everything moves in conjunction.......or we get a pullback from this initial spike in everything and then it resumes
first move I would think is right move here
  • #2,071
  • Dec 6, 2013 7:39am Dec 6, 2013 7:39am
Quoting pipple
big #s either dollar strength continues through the open and everything moves in conjunction.......or we get a pullback from this initial spike in everything and then it resumes first move I would think is right move here
yeah, the unemployment rate number id the big one 7% is big!!
  • #2,072
  • Dec 6, 2013 7:50am Dec 6, 2013 7:50am
tapering will have got a whole lot closer after that rate number
  • #2,073
  • Dec 6, 2013 8:10am Dec 6, 2013 8:10am
Quoting Cecil Gee
tapering will have got a whole lot closer after that rate number
has taper phobia been cured? seems so...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,074
  • Dec 6, 2013 8:45am Dec 6, 2013 8:45am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} has taper phobia been cured? seems so...
that is their plan I would imagine.
Just makes me wonder if it is all real (the numbers) or just how manipulated or off they are.
  • #2,075
  • Dec 6, 2013 8:50am Dec 6, 2013 8:50am
Quoting Cecil Gee
GS Goldman sachs order put in to long $160 puts at £3 per contract or 3c GS Dec 2013 160.000 put (GS131206P00160000) -OPR 0.03 0.00(0.00%) 20:17
will expire worthless= loss
  • #2,076
  • Dec 6, 2013 8:54am Dec 6, 2013 8:54am
Quoting Cecil Gee
Opened another trade on Starbucks, longed puts $79 for 15c/15$per contract. Starbucks trading at $80.10 would be better if indexes were lined up equal Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) -NasdaqGS 80.10 {image} 0.45(0.56%) 5:06PM GMT - Nasdaq Real Time Price SBUX Dec 2013 79.000 put (SBUX131206P00079000) -OPR 0.15 {image} 0.06(28.57%) 16:32
this will expire worthless too= loss. At one time I was up nearly 200%
  • #2,077
  • Dec 6, 2013 8:57am Dec 6, 2013 8:57am
Quoting Cecil Gee
This going to be so tight and I'm not going to get a chance to write but I may chance my arm early to long puts on SPY/IWM/GS a minute before the close SPY needs to close under 179.06 IWM needs to close under 111.50 GS under $165.88
I will look to buy back these for a loss or roll them out further depending on the close of the market, who knows if we give all these gains back a little later. Either way thats the last time I will ever make a trade before the NFP
  • #2,078
  • Dec 6, 2013 9:01am Dec 6, 2013 9:01am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} this will expire worthless too= loss. At one time I was up nearly 200%
I feel your pain.....I was up a ton on crude calls before this weeks gnarly action.....those ones hurt....when you watch the proverbial "bird in hand" turn into a grenade right in front of you.
  • #2,079
  • Dec 6, 2013 9:02am Dec 6, 2013 9:02am
Something wrong INDEXES up fair amount but yet this is not seen in the big cap stocks like appl, nflx, bank stocks, tsla etc
  • #2,080
  • Dec 6, 2013 9:06am Dec 6, 2013 9:06am
Quoting pipple
{quote} I feel your pain.....I was up a ton on crude calls before this weeks gnarly action.....those ones hurt....when you watch the proverbial "bird in hand" turn into a grenade right in front of you.
mistake was all mine, should know better NFP has a short term surprise. Saving grace with me is I tend to trade the same $ amount on all trades so when I make 5x+ 0n one trade the hurt is less in the pocket when i lose some than my ego gets
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