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  • #321
  • Dec 3, 2013 1:46pm Dec 3, 2013 1:46pm
Hey Bob,
Picked some more UJ up at a discounted price of 102.20. What ya think?
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #322
  • Dec 3, 2013 2:04pm Dec 3, 2013 2:04pm
No need to apologize, if you're long uj and short gu&eu you've said enough, no need to over analyze the trades. Right now I'm also heavy long uj and some light short positions gu,eu and au. So, I have positive expectations about us dollar. I had two positions at usdchf, one ended with small profit, the other one small loss. I've said many times that fundamentals matter, but there's a factor which at the FF forum is rarely observed - dirty money. There's a trend for transferring this money from east to west - rich Chinese are hiding and transferring their (dirty) money to the west, mostly Europe. There's the answer about euro strength which it cannot be found at any ECB statement. Rich Chinese and Arabs are pouring tons of money at euro football clubs and this is only the top of the iceberg. Russian tycoons are buying everything in London and Europe, they don't care about the ECB policy or what Carney would say. And from the other side there's the biggest iceberg in the (financial) world - the Japanese pension funds. This iceberg is starting to melt and spreading across the oceans. So we (as traders) should prepare ourselves for some surfing. To resume, the dirty money and jap.pension funds are the one of the biggest factors that influences the fx moves right now. GU and EU are very well supported because JPY is melting away from it's homeland. So, the story of the Yen would be very attractive through the whole 2014 and keeping longs and buying on deeps JPY pairs would be same effective as it was buying the gold through the several years of uptrend. Yes, xxx/jpy is the new gold.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #323
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:52am Dec 4, 2013 2:52am
Quoting Jgcole83
Hey Bob, Picked some more UJ up at a discounted price of 102.20. What ya think? {image}



I think any 40-50pip drop should be bought, good job


Bikov I love you FA. You have a great knowledge of how fundamentals work and that is what we need here.


Analysis wise I believe we are in consolidation in most major and cross pairs until we have some moving news, ecb nfp etc.. So in a few days we should have some new directions form and these will most likely continue through Q1 2014
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  • #324
  • Dec 4, 2013 4:29am Dec 4, 2013 4:29am
the game in yen pair is always the same: buy the dip
I'll Sell when price is heading to Hell
  • #325
  • Dec 4, 2013 5:54am Dec 4, 2013 5:54am
Long USD on all fronts - uj,eu,gu,uchf.. I'm a little bit over leveraged but sometimes I just cannot resist.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #326
  • Dec 4, 2013 6:22am Dec 4, 2013 6:22am
Quoting bikov
Long USD on all fronts - uj,eu,gu,uchf.. I'm a little bit over leveraged but sometimes I just cannot resist.
Dec taper odds just increased to about 30% and loading usd longs is the play for possibly all of 2014. Jan taper is a definite and a Dec taper is getting better odds.

Ism is the next number today and a solid number should throw eur under 1.35 and a close below would be very good.
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  • #327
  • Dec 4, 2013 7:37am Dec 4, 2013 7:37am
Quoting BobGnarly
{quote} Dec taper odds just increased to about 30% and loading usd longs is the play for possibly all of 2014. Jan taper is a definite and a Dec taper is getting better odds. Ism is the next number today and a solid number should throw eur under 1.35 and a close below would be very good.

Agree about the odds, but it's in FEDs nature to make some unpleasant surprises for dollar bulls. Anyway, now USD is becoming trendy, eur and gbp should rest for a while.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #328
  • Dec 4, 2013 11:40am Dec 4, 2013 11:40am
Quoting BobGnarly
{quote} Dec taper odds just increased to about 30% and loading usd longs is the play for possibly all of 2014. Jan taper is a definite and a Dec taper is getting better odds. Ism is the next number today and a solid number should throw eur under 1.35 and a close below would be very good.
So then my USDJPY long at 102.2 should work out just fine...
I make it rain from the center of my Keytar
  • #329
  • Dec 4, 2013 12:30pm Dec 4, 2013 12:30pm
Think I might pick up some eurusd shorts around .588 or .600
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #330
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:59pm Dec 4, 2013 2:59pm
Tomorrow begins my analysis for the yearly trades I plan for 2014.


After the ecb and the nfp I will have a few ideas of trades we can hold for an entire year and try to pinpoint the entry. There will be no fee or anything involved just my honest opinions for 2014 and hopefully it will make you guys a S*%$ ton of pips!
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  • #331
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:05pm Dec 4, 2013 3:05pm
Massive pips is the main goal here. Drawdowns happen, get over it.

The outline:

Pinpoint 3-4 pairs

Enter trades no later then 1-2-14

Stops and target prices will be very large

Adding to winning positions and trailing stops will give you massive returns


Goal for 2014 6-8k pips with substantial amount of Growth with trying to keep risk low.
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  • #332
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:06pm Dec 4, 2013 3:06pm
Quoting Jgcole83
Think I might pick up some eurusd shorts around .588 or .600

Wait until ECB or preferably NFP
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  • #333
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:12pm Dec 4, 2013 3:12pm
Quoting BobGnarly
{quote} Wait until ECB or preferably NFP
I thought about that, but I feel like with all the taper talk and seasonal stuff at play it was okay to open a small position. I won't lose anything really and if everything plays out like I think it will I'll pile on later
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #334
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:16pm Dec 4, 2013 3:16pm
Quoting BobGnarly
Massive pips is the main goal here. Drawdowns happen, get over it. The outline: Pinpoint 3-4 pairs Enter trades no later then 1-2-14 Stops and target prices will be very large Adding to winning positions and trailing stops will give you massive returns Goal for 2014 6-8k pips with substantial amount of Growth with trying to keep risk low.

one of them must to be UJ
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #335
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:19pm Dec 4, 2013 3:19pm
Quoting bikov
{quote} one of them must to be UJ

How did you know?
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  • #336
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:27pm Dec 4, 2013 3:27pm
I actually planned on starting this thread around this time. But I figured I wanted to get to know some of you guys. The last 3 months of the year are very weird for me, especially establishing a huge position. Too much end of the quarter flow plus central banks trying to position for the new year.

So I apologize for lacking on the trend following aspects as I did not have any positions really in mind. But 2014 will be no joke and we will all be rich next December, Sound good!?
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  • #337
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:31pm Dec 4, 2013 3:31pm
Quoting BobGnarly
Tomorrow begins my analysis for the yearly trades I plan for 2014. After the ecb and the nfp I will have a few ideas of trades we can hold for an entire year and try to pinpoint the entry. There will be no fee or anything involved just my honest opinions for 2014 and hopefully it will make you guys a S*%$ ton of pips!
Hey Super BG, this might want to go into that list.................
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  • #338
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:38pm Dec 4, 2013 3:38pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Hey Super BG, this might want to go into that list................. {image}

I have been trying longs on this for quite some time lol I was shocked when 1.12 broke but 1.0902 should contain any major drop, I wouldnt mind longing in that area.

Here is 1 trade I have planned

Long USD/CAD

Reason:
Bullish year for USD in 2014 due to policy adjustments and dialing back QE
CAD is bearish and has a bearish 2014 outlook.


Target area 1.12-1.15/16 would actually like to see 1.19 but must see what price does around 1.15

We need to break the 1.09 handle for this to be confirmed. But longs now should be bought on dips.

Stop area is 1.03 the 200 period moving average falls there


Entry between 1.0560 and market
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  • #339
  • Dec 4, 2013 3:46pm Dec 4, 2013 3:46pm
Good observation of FTSE100. If this rises to 8000, then we may see GJ above 200 .
http://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2013/...ber-2013.html/
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #340
  • Dec 4, 2013 7:07pm Dec 4, 2013 7:07pm
Quoting BobGnarly
{quote} I have been trying longs on this for quite some time lol I was shocked when 1.12 broke but 1.0902 should contain any major drop, I wouldnt mind longing in that area. Here is 1 trade I have planned Long USD/CAD Reason: Bullish year for USD in 2014 due to policy adjustments and dialing back QE CAD is bearish and has a bearish 2014 outlook. Target area 1.12-1.15/16 would actually like to see 1.19 but must see what price does around 1.15 We need to break the 1.09 handle for this to be confirmed. But longs now should be bought on dips. Stop area...

USDCAD - Month is Long, Weekly is Long, Daily is Long ,

H4 is Long , but topping currently.

So be looking for a pull back before going long again..........
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