Asian Breakout with trend

Hello,

I have been trading for about one year and still have not been able to be a profitable trader...
Underlying of my strategy:

By randomly entering a trade (without any analysis) with a a RR of 1, we have 50% to win, 50% loose.
- In reality, trading that way would be unprofitable as we require to give a commission to the broker

Most trader fails at trading as I believe the problem is our mind so I wanted to create a really simple "robot system" where the mind interact as little as possible with the judgment.

In order to increase the winning rate by entering randomly a trade, I will trade Asian range breakout during the London session with the H1 trend.

Here is the strategy that I will follow for one month with the following rules:
- Trade EUR/USD Only
- No trade on BCE/FED speeches, Rate decision, NFP days
- 1 Hour range of about 20-40 pips of asian range before London session
- Evaluate whether the H1 is in uptrend or downtrend
- If uptrend, Pending buy order at the high of the range, SL is lower of the range with 1/1 ratio
- if downtrend, Pending sell order at the low of the range, SL is higher of the range with 1/1 ratio
- If pending order is not triggered it will be remove before bed time (about 2pm GMT)

Regarding MM:
My first lot size will be 0.10. For every win I will increase to 0.05, every loss decrease to 0.05
I will accept 5 losses with 0.05 lot size before stoping this strategy.

Expectation:
- I expect to have 3 trades triggered per week
- 2W; 1L out of those 3 trades
- Net lot increase of 0.05 per week; 0.20 per month
- Trading time of 15 minutes per day

Result:
Week 1: 3 Trades 2W/ 1L --> Net increase of 0.05 as planned
Week 2: 2 Trades 1W/1L -> No increase
Week 3: 1 Trade 1L -> Generally speaking, Trending week with NFP, I am quite happy with the result as I did not loose too much in such a market environment net decrease of 0.05
Week 4: 2 trades 2L -> Net increase of 0.10
--> 1 month result, net increase of 0.10 in size lot, 50% below my expectation... but the strategy has been profitable so far so lets continue the experience !!!

First trade with this trading strategy:

Trend analysis:
Uptrend

Lot Size:
0.10

BPO: 1.3507
Target: 1.35402
SL: 1.34738

Follow up: Target hit! Really glad it worked from the first attempt ! +0.05 for next trade

Hi

Your method is very similar to mine - I even got the same entry today @ 1.3507, target is 2 pips higher than yours. My method is in the Trading Systems forum.

A few differences - I trade several currencies against USD, not just the euro.

I don't try to pick direction - I place a buy order at the top of the range AND a sell order at the bottom of the range, one order getting hit cancels the other.

I use volatility to time the market instead of simply trading the London breakout. Usually this coincides with London opening anyway - but not always, sometimes the market remains quiet for a while into the London session, usually when the market is anticipating an important news event.

Instead of trying to eliminate subjectivity I embrace it as I feel this is where the biggest edge can be gained.


Good luck

Trend analysis:
Uptrend

Lot Size:
0.15

BPO: 1.35237
Target: 1.3541
SL: 1.35043

BPO and Target reached instantly

I was at my friend house so I could post of FF and I realized that the RR is not exactly 1/1 as the trade was taken quickly taken of my iphone ...

Next trade: increase of 0.05

Today is non-trading day as we have important news coming from US, will trade in Thursday

Trend analysis:
Downtrend

Lot Size:
0.20

Sell Stop: 1.34126
Target: 1.33836
SL: 1.34420

Range of 29 pips

Follow up> SL hit -0.05

ECB Draghi speaking today so non trade day !!

Trend analysis:
Uptrend

Lot Size:
0.15

Buy Stop: 1.35601
Target: 1.35879
SL: 1.35332

Follow up: Buy stop canceled because not triggered

No trade today as the Asian session range got broken with the opening of the Frankfurt session

Trend analysis:
Uptrend

Lot Size:
0.15

Buy Stop: 1.35993
Target: 1.36369
SL: 1.35602

Trend analysis:
Uptrend

Lot Size:
0.10

Buy Stop: 1.35877
Target: 1.3610
SL: 1.35634

Follow up:
Target Hit +0.05

Trend analysis:
Uptrend

Lot Size:
0.15

Buy Stop: 1.36219
Target: 1.3641
SL: 1.36043

Nice System :-)

The 21th you took a short trade but the low was broken with Frankfurt Session

Now you didnt take a long because of the same rule

Maybe you have to consider that one ot do you see a difference between the 21th and 26th regarding Frankfurt Session breaking high or low of Asian Session?

Thanks

Hello thank you for your question,
I took during the Frankfurst session it was a mistake by me and should not have traded.

From my memorie the Trade got triggered with the French Flash Manufacturing PMI then 30 minutes later the German Flash Manufacturing PMI reversed the trade against me. Furthermore it was a Draghi speaking day.

--> That is why I got a loss The trade of the 21 was extremely wrong, thank you for notifying

but in the future I might reconsider the following:

Break of the range with the trend during the Franfurt Session, Retest of the breakout during the London --> Opening trade

From now on I engage myself to post picture on the thread prior to London opening and after the trade

Thanks for the answer :-)

The journey just started :-)

Is that your Asia Session High 1,3609 and your Low 1,3587???

I did not trade yesterday as there was a bernanke speech, but I seriously hesitated to put a pending sell order as I identified the trade as downtrend... Too bad for me as it would as worked perfectly .

Today:

Trend analysis:
Downtrend

Lot Size:
0.15

Sell Stop: 1.3524
Target: 1.34940
SL: 1.35540

Range of 30 pips

Followup:

Trade not triggered

How do you identify trend? Explain this please

Higher Timeframe or you just watch 123 or Moving Average?

Most of people consider a uptrend of HL HH, downtrend of LL LH. That is the basic definition but then there is a discretionnary aspect that people develops with experience and is difficult to write down...

But basically I consider than when price is below my 1hour Moving average as in downtrend and above my 1hour moving average as in uptrend...