The one reason that trumps all other reasons why traders lose

Unshakeable belief in themselves

Cocaine ?

Let me guess: all successful traders use a method that works.

Dedication!

Because they are looking for the one answer that trumps all other answers.

co-sign

Solid Trading Plan

Education

Risking more than they should....

why the guessing game, if you have something to say then just say it..........

I would say lack of understanding what is happening off the charts, an inability to view market action on more than one level simultaneously - people switch between TA and FA and treat them separately instead of seeing one as a manifestation of the other.

If you are trying to exploit technical patterns without regard to the economic events driving them, when something changes behind the scenes your system will simply stop working and most likely you will never know why.

Gambler's Ruin: a gambler with finite wealth, playing a fair game (that is, each bet has expected value zero to both sides) will eventually go broke against an opponent with infinite wealth.

They trade the cause, not the effect.

Oh, man, you gotta get acquainted with a guy called BeginnerJoe, he also knows what this thing is and you seem to share some traits too.

Whilst I agree to what you are saying numbnuts, I find it difficult to fathom the notion of someone being able to consistently trade with the economic sentiment as no one ever knows which way it will really go until it is out and the market spikes.. Then there is the problem of working out how far it will go. But on top of this, the degree to which probability a certain figure will come out is represented to the degree of how far the market moves to price in that outcome and so in the end, the only edge that can be gained from economic sentiment is being correct in assessing 1) outcome and 2) impact... CONSISTENTLY... In the end it seems no different or effective than using price charts, sometimes you're right, some times you are not right...

As every professional trader out there is trying to do this (play the information game) I can't see any edge in trying to out smart the ones with not only inside information, but market moving power, as well as power to use the media and influence the masses. One great thing though is being informed and not confused about why the market is doing what it is doing, or perhaps able to make better guesses as to why.

But in terms of conversion to profit it's quite a tough gig to play that game consistently over the long run.. The reason: because I know that if the market is looking at a certain economic event and it comes out more negative than expected then the market will sell the currency concerned.. Now I know this, and I live in a small town in the ass end of Australia... So if I can know this then I assume quite a lot other of people will know this and therefore the actions of a large number of market participants is not at all ';edge" like.. it is predictable and easy to take advantage of..

The market is seemingly random as this is the behavior that gathers the most liquidity, simple as that. So that goes along the original lines of your post, which I do agree with... My only problem is how that helps Trader Joe to profit as a opposed to a tail chasing game not unlike the technical pattern game... Because just like the technical game changes, so too does the economical game..

The bright side to this is that there is a silver lining and lyes around the acceptance that the future is unknown and randomly nonrandom and therefore the game is in Price and getting the best one you can for the position you choose.

This is just my opinion of course.

PATIENCE

I'm not trying to be a hater, but your words quite strongly imply that you yourself do not have it. (specifically "us")

not being able to identify on a chart where the opportunities lie.

A trading plan. ( Lack of )

hahahaha...great!