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Why Simple is better in trading and Complex is not

  • #461
  • Edited 4:53am Dec 2, 2013 4:39am | Edited 4:53am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} They're good points, but they sound like the report from someone who completely understands programming but not trading.
What is there to understand about trading? You find non-random patterns in price behavior, satisfy yourself that they're statistically valid, devise entry/exit rules to exploit them, and follow your rules. That's Gil Blake's paradigm (as outlined in Schwager's New Market Wizards); it makes sense enough to me.

Quoting 60minuteman
if simple rule based systems work then why isn't everyone a millionaire..... is the assumption. But IS everyone following a simple system? In my opinion not. In fact is everyone using a simple system but failing to execute?
For me,
mechanical = simple (and objectively definable);
discretionary = open to subjective interpretation, and therefore ambiguous.

Perhaps, then, we disagree on what constitutes "simple"?

Anyway, no matter. There's no point in getting into an interminable debate on semantics, so I'll end here.
  • #462
  • Dec 2, 2013 5:02am Dec 2, 2013 5:02am
Quoting hanover
{quote} What is there to understand about trading? You find non-random patterns in price behavior, satisfy yourself that they're statistically valid, devise entry/exit rules to exploit them, and follow your rules. That's Gil Blake's paradigm (as outlined in Schwager's New Market Wizards); it makes sense enough to me.
explain why you need a computer to do that then? .... fact is, you don't... unless trading has to be very complex.... which is it?

If you trade daily bars you cant use the excuse of missing opportunities.

With regards accurate entries and exits you can use pending orders.

With regards discipline and controlling emotions, it can be done, it's not hard, it's like quitting smoking, just in the head.

Automated or manual people just repeat the same mistakes and it's nothing to do with simple or complex.
tradewith60
  • #463
  • Dec 2, 2013 1:32pm Dec 2, 2013 1:32pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} explain why you need a computer to do that then? .... fact is, you don't... unless trading has to be very complex.... which is it? If you trade daily bars you cant use the excuse of missing opportunities. With regards accurate entries and exits you can use pending orders. With regards discipline and controlling emotions, it can be done, it's not hard, it's like quitting smoking, just in the head. Automated or manual people just repeat the same mistakes and it's nothing to do with simple or complex.
Repeating what I said in post #450.......
If your system is 100% mechanical, then you have the option of manual or automated trading.
If it's not, then for better or worse, you'll have to trade it manually.

And sure, if your system is too complex to be traded manually (e.g. monitoring several instruments simultaneously for several different combinations of conditions), then you'd require some form of automation.

I have a semi-automated system where I decide manually (normally each day) which pairs are exhibiting the strongest D1/W1 trends; and then I leave the entries to EAs, when suitable M5/M15 candles form after the trends pull back to zones that I've pre-plotted on the charts; and the EAs also place stops and take partial profit on any particularly 'large' candles. Then I check any open positions the following day, and decide which (of the remaining profitable) positions I'll keep open. The EAs reduce what would otherwise be an around-the-clock process for me, to around 30 minutes each day. They excel at monitoring the market, and accurate execution, while I still get to make all of the 'important' (discretionary) decisions. This is a new approach that I'm currently experimenting with, but so far it's been working very well.

One final thought: if profitable trading was as simple as your 6 rules in post #445, then why bother with the years of study? We could all learn to trade in just a few minutes. Especially if discipline and controlling emotions is "not hard".

Anyway, whatever, thanks for the discussion.
  • #464
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:02pm Dec 2, 2013 2:02pm
Time to turn around?? TEB's 50/14 method on 1h
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  • #465
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:02pm Dec 2, 2013 3:02pm
But its against the 50sma trend!

Looks more like "Forexgogo's intuitive countertrend cci14 oversold and 5,3,3, stoch. turning up" system.
  • #466
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:20pm Dec 2, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting Poocher
But its against the 50sma trend! Looks more like "Forexgogo's intuitive countertrend cci14 oversold and 5,3,3, stoch. turning up" system.
SMA50 looks heading down, but it is flat. If the PA goes up, SMA50 will look OK.
We'll see
  • #467
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:23pm Dec 2, 2013 3:23pm
Only reason I posted is because I admire how you trade!

Very intuitive...you feel the market...you're ready to make up losses on a Monday sometime during the rest of the week because you're so confindent in you're market analysis!

This is a good lookin' trade Forexgogo.
  • #468
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:32pm Dec 2, 2013 3:32pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} One final thought: if profitable trading was as simple as your 6 rules in post #445, then why bother with the years of study? We could all learn to trade in just a few minutes. Especially if discipline and controlling emotions is "not hard". Anyway, whatever, thanks for the discussion.
how would you know, by your own admission your EA's are for more complex, have you tried it?
tradewith60
  • #469
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:39pm Dec 2, 2013 3:39pm
Quoting Poocher
Only reason I posted is because I admire how you trade! Very intuitive...you feel the market...you're ready to make up losses on a Monday sometime during the rest of the week because you're so confindent in you're market analysis! This is a good lookin' trade Forexgogo.
Thank you so much! But I'm not that confident. Rather, I'm like a timid rabbit -- quick to run away. OK, here is my next move: when I gain 10 pips, I will move SL=BE. That is the yellow area where I anticipate the PA to come down. It b/c of a trend line and EMA48 (red line).

This trade is hard to win, actually. This is the bottom of the week-long major down trend...
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  • #470
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:52pm Dec 2, 2013 3:52pm
I know your going to go BE at +10 pips...you've said it many times...and that's what pro's do.

And pro's are timid as a rabbit

And you're so hard on yourself...but that keeps you from the minds insane rationalizations to make the stops so much bigger.
  • #471
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:20pm Dec 2, 2013 4:20pm
Quoting Poocher
I know your going to go BE at +10 pips...you've said it many times...and that's what pro's do. And pro's are timid as a rabbit And you're so hard on yourself...but that keeps you from the minds insane rationalizations to make the stops so much bigger.
Thanks again for your kind words.
About my tight SL, this is why I started it; when you see a 15m chart (say, EURUSD), you see so many entries that you can win 25 pips with an SL less than 10 pips -- at least once a day. So I figured it shouldn't be that hard to win one of those. This is the reason.
Now I watch 4 pairs and want to win 2 of 4 entries a day, which makes 30pips. But usually I earn 50-100 pips a week. That is enough for me to live with. All I need is to decide the amount of lot... (I put in somewhere between 1 and 5 lots).
  • #472
  • Edited Dec 3, 2013 7:46am Dec 2, 2013 4:43pm | Edited Dec 3, 2013 7:46am
FYI

I will be watching GBPUSD very closely tomorrow (news hours particularly). It's a juicy daily pin bar hanging there in a critical area...

Edit I couldn't help but...
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  • #473
  • Dec 2, 2013 5:28pm Dec 2, 2013 5:28pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} One final thought: if profitable trading was as simple …...
Mastering one self is very difficult, once done that, (if) trading it is easy...
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #474
  • Dec 2, 2013 8:25pm Dec 2, 2013 8:25pm
Quoting Poocher
But its against the 50sma trend! Looks more like "Forexgogo's intuitive countertrend cci14 oversold and 5,3,3, stoch. turning up" system.
Yes, it did not fit with what was being discussed by Teb. Neither is my chart I suppose because it's not the 1hr, as it's 50 sma was slightly up, however I think sometimes we need to let the T/F choose us!

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Good Trading
  • #475
  • Dec 2, 2013 8:39pm Dec 2, 2013 8:39pm
crazy day and tomorrow is worse
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  • #476
  • Dec 2, 2013 8:41pm Dec 2, 2013 8:41pm
Quoting aud
{quote} Yes, it did not fit with what was being discussed by Teb. Neither is my chart I suppose because it's not the 1hr, as it's 50 sma was slightly up, however I think sometimes we need to let the T/F choose us! {image}

Boy that a pretty chart - I might start gold
  • #477
  • Dec 2, 2013 9:30pm Dec 2, 2013 9:30pm
Quoting TEB63
crazy day and tomorrow is worse
Wow, are you using an EA or a script to get in and out of trades?
Good Trading
  • #478
  • Dec 2, 2013 9:47pm Dec 2, 2013 9:47pm
Quoting aud
{quote} Wow, are you using an EA or a script to get in and out of trades?
simple rules-

I can check the charts on this system - hour - 4 hour & day in less then 20 mins
I spend about an hour on the weekends

that's it - the more the complex the harder it is
  • #479
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:27pm Dec 2, 2013 10:27pm
Quoting hanover
{quote} I clicked on your link, and got a warning that included: "The link you requested may contain inappropriate content, or even spam or malicious code that could be downloaded to your computer without your consent, or may be a forgery or imitation of another website, designed to trick users into sharing personal or financial information." I see that you've been spamming your message over other threads also. I have reported your post to the forum moderators for immediate action.
Hanover

I am very interested in knowing the way you trade, please feel free to elaborate on it if you like,

Milam
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #480
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:52pm Dec 2, 2013 10:52pm
This is what I consider simple, decision only made on price action:

I am in, this setup is called,Turtle soup plus one:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post7127306
Wherever you go, there you are.
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