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  • #1,941
  • Dec 1, 2013 11:30pm Dec 1, 2013 11:30pm
Quoting The Fool
(for next week, another cheap wide strangle: Jan EWZ $40/$54, $0.21/$0.09.....)
this maybe, long Jan $40p/$52c is $0.22/$0.22, net $0.45 debit. Would need a lttle better than a $2 move either way by end of Dec. Really a play off FOMC, so it might pay to wait til week of 12/16.

Chance of any kind of surprise out of the Fed this month has gotta be pretty slim....but with all the press on equity bubbles now maybe chance we soon see an initial token QE reduction is growing.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,942
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:03am Dec 2, 2013 12:03am
Long weekends are killer, hard to get back in the game. Maybe try reading the daily blab....

GOLDMAN: Here Are The 20 Most Overpriced Stocks In The Market
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldm...144-downside-1

...they missed YELP, FB, TWTR, etc. All the social media companies that don't produce anything but cyberfluff will go to zero as they get subsumed by the Next Big Thing.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,943
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:33am Dec 2, 2013 12:33am
http://images.northrup.org/picture/xl/tapir/tapir.jpg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...tml?cmpid=yhoo

the tapir, right, I'm afraid...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,944
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:47am Dec 2, 2013 12:47am
I have LVS earmarked this week for a December 21 expiration trade as for weeklys with this being a new month I tend to wait a couple of days to finalise the new trading levels
  • #1,945
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:53am Dec 2, 2013 12:53am
daily crude chart has a divergent RSI, will not be surprised one bit if we see $98 tested this week or next
  • #1,946
  • Dec 2, 2013 1:05am Dec 2, 2013 1:05am
Quoting Cecil Gee
daily crude chart has a divergent RSI, will not be surprised one bit if we see $98 tested this week or next
well, that'd be a gift I think. Crude fickle though. We get all the rumors of more supply from Iran coming online early in the New Year but also seasonal effect of coldest weather boosting the heating oil demand at the same time....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,947
  • Dec 2, 2013 3:08am Dec 2, 2013 3:08am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...tml?cmpid=yhoo

FXI due a drop? see Feb or Mar ~$33 puts....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,948
  • Edited 3:46am Dec 2, 2013 3:25am | Edited 3:46am
"...staggering earnings growth in coming years..."

http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing...tyholnk3030001

Jan '15 $12c @ $0.29, $15c @ $0.10....SAN up from $6.50 to >$9 in last 4 months....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,949
  • Dec 2, 2013 8:23am Dec 2, 2013 8:23am
Quoting The Fool
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...tml?cmpid=yhoo FXI due a drop? see Feb or Mar ~$33 puts....
if that happens then the floor may fall out in GOLD and Crude longer term
  • #1,950
  • Dec 2, 2013 9:33am Dec 2, 2013 9:33am
Keeping an eye on the USO/ UNITED STATES OIL FUND, a close above $33.70 today may help me decide on whether to long the weekly $34 call for around 10c/$10 per contract if I can get it at that price

currently trading at 33.58$

United States Oil (USO)
-NYSEArca
33.58 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.12(0.36%) 15:30 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #1,951
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:02am Dec 2, 2013 10:02am
Quoting Cecil Gee
daily crude chart has a divergent RSI, will not be surprised one bit if we see $98 tested this week or next
that would be the worst thing ever for me Cecil so I hope this thing just keeps riding itself down.
not that I wont turn a profit if it does that.....but I will have to work harder for it.....and who the hell likes to do that.
  • #1,952
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:10am Dec 2, 2013 10:10am
Quoting pipple
{quote} that would be the worst thing ever for me Cecil so I hope this thing just keeps riding itself down. not that I wont turn a profit if it does that.....but I will have to work harder for it.....and who the hell likes to do that.
hope it works out for you, don't like bringing news like this. Just want to make traders who are holding positions aware of any potential scenario
  • #1,953
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:14am Dec 2, 2013 10:14am
Quoting pipple
{quote} that would be the worst thing ever for me Cecil so I hope this thing just keeps riding itself down. not that I wont turn a profit if it does that.....but I will have to work harder for it.....and who the hell likes to do that.
does a stronger $ increase crude prices?
  • #1,954
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:35am Dec 2, 2013 10:35am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} does a stronger $ increase crude prices?
generally strong usd works against oil price, since most oil globally bought in usd (buy oil/sell usd, usd bought/oil sold). However , the negative correlation is not always that strong....global trade in usd much larger than trade in oil....so many other factors involved
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,955
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:40am Dec 2, 2013 10:40am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Many possibilities... long Mar 22 GLD $110p @ $1.66, long DUST Mar 22 $15p @ $0.65: spread and sell far otm puts against each set of long puts min 3x, Dec-Feb. The short DUST position can effectively hedge the short GLD position, but the ratio is not 1:1, more like 1 DUST:5 GLD, need to confirm...
not sure of the above but gold bounce was short-lived, GLD down 2% today...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,956
  • Dec 2, 2013 10:42am Dec 2, 2013 10:42am
Quoting Cecil Gee;7128662[b
]Keeping an eye on the USO/ UNITED STATES OIL FUND, a close above $33.70 today [/b]may help me decide on whether to long the weekly $34 call for around 10c/$10 per contract if I can get it at that price currently trading at 33.58$ United States Oil (USO) -NYSEArca 33.58 {image} 0.12(0.36%) 15:30 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
flip side to this is a close below $33.50 then oil lower
  • #1,957
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:28pm Dec 2, 2013 12:28pm
I just cant see this thing going back up there.....I see what you are talking about with the RSI.....but my TDI (which includes RSI) suggests it may not be strong enough to do that.
regardless......movement generally means profit in my strategy.....so I welcome it.
the only thing I do not like about a sharp upward move would be the skewed premiums of calls vs puts.
I only have to get to 2 Mondays from now for expiration.....and have plenty of cash on the sidelines just in case of an emergency.
like I always say....I don't trust it. If I did I wouldn't be such a proponent of both legs of the strangle being written
Gold seems like it really wants to go
  • #1,958
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:40pm Dec 2, 2013 12:40pm
Quoting pipple
I just cant see this thing going back up there.....I see what you are talking about with the RSI.....but my TDI (which includes RSI) suggests it may not be strong enough to do that. regardless......movement generally means profit in my strategy.....so I welcome it. the only thing I do not like about a sharp upward move would be the skewed premiums of calls vs puts. I only have to get to 2 Mondays from now for expiration.....and have plenty of cash on the sidelines just in case of an emergency. like I always say....I don't trust it. If I did I wouldn't...
this upwards move is just a bounce for a further drop, the $98 is just the highest point i see it could go before it resumption downwards, It may never get there but its something I keeping at the back of my mind
  • #1,959
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:14pm Dec 2, 2013 2:14pm
also I just rolled all 1290 soybean puts down to 1260s. bought back for @$150 loss per option.....and sold 10% more 1260s for about $250 each option.
Beans moving a lot lately.....lot of opportunity there.....low margins.....excellent naked writing potential
  • #1,960
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:47pm Dec 2, 2013 2:47pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
Keeping an eye on the USO/ UNITED STATES OIL FUND, a close above $33.70 today may help me decide on whether to long the weekly $34 call for around 10c/$10 per contract if I can get it at that price currently trading at 33.58$ United States Oil (USO) -NYSEArca 33.58 {image} 0.12(0.36%) 15:30 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
had to take this but in for 17c, USO is trading at $33.71


USO Dec 2013 34.000 call (USO131206C00034000)
-OPR

0.17 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.03(21.43%) 20:25



33.71 http://l.yimg.com/a/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.25(0.75%) 20:41 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
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