Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 182 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #3,621
  • Nov 29, 2013 9:02pm Nov 29, 2013 9:02pm
Hi Alfonso,

I often have problem with two supply levels or two demand levels close to each other. Is there a way to determine on which level price is likely to reverse? Or should we always use the highest supply level and the lowest demand level?
  • #3,622
  • Nov 30, 2013 6:55am Nov 30, 2013 6:55am
You know after 13 years of trading i dont come down to supply and demand analysis.
  • #3,623
  • Nov 30, 2013 9:40am Nov 30, 2013 9:40am
Quoting TravoltaImp
You know after 13 years of trading i dont come down to supply and demand analysis.
Hi travolata, nice to know that you have 13 years of trading experience, but if you dont trade S&R why are you here?
passion and discipline
  • #3,624
  • Nov 30, 2013 9:50am Nov 30, 2013 9:50am
Quoting rohule
{quote} Hi travolata, nice to know that you have 13 years of trading experience, but if you dont trade S&R why are you here?
There are many ways to trade, and it does not require S&R, you should leave others well enough alone. Are you a forum bully ? This is a free country and he can be here as he wants , just like you and I ........................Alien.......................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #3,625
  • Edited 11:06am Nov 30, 2013 10:53am | Edited 11:06am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} There are many ways to trade, and it does not require S&R, you should leave others well enough alone. Are you a forum bully ? This is a free country and he can be here as he wants , just like you and I ........................Alien.......................

hi alien, we are not in any country, this is internet and of course is free. and i know there are a lot of diferent ways to trade but guess what? this is a supply and demand forum, im not going to post a burguer recipe in a vegan forum. its just silly and pointless.
passion and discipline
  • #3,626
  • Nov 30, 2013 11:16am Nov 30, 2013 11:16am
Quoting rohule
{quote} hi alien, we are not in any country, this is internet and of course is free. and i know there are a lot of diferent ways to trade but guess what? this is a supply and demand forum, im not going to post a burguer recipe in a vegan forum. its just silly and pointless.
Point made, and I did not know Mexico was not a country...................may peace be with you.............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #3,627
  • Nov 30, 2013 11:35am Nov 30, 2013 11:35am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Point made, and I did not know Mexico was not a country...................may peace be with you.............

come on dude, you said "we are in a free country" im not in your country, this is word wide internet. we are not in the same grografical spot, this is not a country, this is a web page. if you are not going to share S&D trades or your wisdom i dont see any advantage of your comments here.

I hope i see some one post trades of cuestions regarding S&R, its only common sense.

have a good one and take care (sorry about my english)
passion and discipline
  • #3,628
  • Dec 2, 2013 2:35am Dec 2, 2013 2:35am
Hey Alfonso , just discovered this interesting thread. Many thanks for your effort
I'd like to know everyone's opinion on USD/JPY WEEKLY/4H combo

When price reached the weekly Supply zone we should have entered on 4H Supply (and resulted in a loss, but doesn't matter) is it correct?
Now that price penetrated much further on Weekly Supply, what we have to do?
Anyone on this short?

Sorry for my english

USD/JPY WEEKLY

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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4H

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OT: Why is this thread on commercial section?
  • #3,629
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:17am Dec 2, 2013 4:17am
Hello Alfonso and everyone

Just started to trade this method( supply and demand) on H1/D1 combo.

Can someone tell me what I did wrong by going long on EU, 1 hour on 02 Dec 2013 at 1.35814, the market went down extremely about 40 pips out of my favour. I'm attaching the the 1 hour chart and daily chart.

Kind Regards

Abie
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: demand zone eu, 1 hour 2 dec 2013.png Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: demand zone eu, daily chart 2 dec 2013.png Size: 103 KB
  • #3,630
  • Edited 8:40am Dec 2, 2013 8:30am | Edited 8:40am
Hi Abzozo1 and everyone

I'm beginer too so possibly my comments are not correct. Then sorry.
On EUR/USD H1 chart the red demand level is not valid as, the price did not break the supply level (and did not made higher high). As I see that zone is too narrow, you should draw it from lower wick to the upper end of the candle(s) body. I think the first usable zone for set it and forget is trade is the blue zone on your picture as it is a fresh demand zone and original (but this is not necessary as the trend direction is up).
On the daily chart you should draw a bigger trend line connecting 2 last valid support zones (between beginning of july and sept). In this case the result is the same as with your trendline. The trend is up on D1 TF.
Another problem could be with this trade: it is at the middle of D1 curve.
If I am not right please correct me, I want to learn too.

regards
  • #3,631
  • Dec 2, 2013 8:51am Dec 2, 2013 8:51am
Quoting lucariga
Hey Alfonso , just discovered this interesting thread. Many thanks for your effort I'd like to know everyone's opinion on USD/JPY WEEKLY/4H combo When price reached the weekly Supply zone we should have entered on 4H Supply (and resulted in a loss, but doesn't matter) is it correct? Now that price penetrated much further on Weekly Supply, what we have to do? Anyone on this short? Sorry for my english USD/JPY WEEKLY {image} 4H {image} OT: Why is this thread on commercial section?
Hi lucargia and everyone

I want to sell USD/JPY too on the W1 H1 combo. I think the W1 supply zone is not fresh as it was touched. If it is true we have to wait confirmation on H4 entry TF.
So now we have to wait patiently on H4 a new supply zone which have to validated (the price have to break the nearest demand level). After that we can use this validated supply zone to enter short. In other case the price can bread the weakly supply zone, than we dont want to sell .

regards
  • #3,632
  • Dec 2, 2013 9:30am Dec 2, 2013 9:30am
Quoting Serijbok
{quote} Hi lucargia and everyone I want to sell USD/JPY too on the W1 H1 combo. I think the W1 supply zone is not fresh as it was touched. If it is true we have to wait confirmation on H4 entry TF. So now we have to wait patiently on H4 a new supply zone which have to validated (the price have to break the nearest demand level). After that we can use this validated supply zone to enter short. In other case the price can bread the weakly supply zone, than we dont want to sell . regards
Thanks fo your reply,
On my broker the weekly level is never been touched as you can see on my picture posted above, so is still fresh AND original....
Let's see Alfonso's thought on how to enter this short...
  • #3,633
  • Edited 10:14am Dec 2, 2013 9:41am | Edited 10:14am
Quoting Abzozo1
Hello Alfonso and everyone Just started to trade this method( supply and demand) on H1/D1 combo. Can someone tell me what I did wrong by going long on EU, 1 hour on 02 Dec 2013 at 1.35814, the market went down extremely about 40 pips out of my favour. I'm attaching the the 1 hour chart and daily chart. Kind Regards Abie {image} {image}
Hello Abie,
You broke one of the main rules on the methodology, the H1 trendline was solidly broken as you can see on my chart, so H1 longs were not allowed. The trendliine rules are explained in detail on Post #1. The 2nd rule you broke was that price didn't make a higher higher, didn't remove swing highs, so the H1 demand level is not valid to go long at, which goes hand in hand with the trendline idea.
Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,634
  • Dec 2, 2013 9:50am Dec 2, 2013 9:50am
Quoting lucariga
Hey Alfonso , just discovered this interesting thread. Many thanks for your effort I'd like to know everyone's opinion on USD/JPY WEEKLY/4H combo When price reached the weekly Supply zone we should have entered on 4H Supply (and resulted in a loss, but doesn't matter) is it correct? Now that price penetrated much further on Weekly Supply, what we have to do? Anyone on this short? Sorry for my english USD/JPY WEEKLY {image} 4H {image} OT: Why is this thread on commercial section?
Hey there
The monthly chart is up, the weekly chart is up, usd is very strong versus the japanese yen. Yen is very week on all cross pairs as well. That trade would be counter-trend, we need to have a fresh and original level on H4 to short, which is there. However, everything is up, WK, Monthly, D1, H4, H4 TL being respected even on little H4 demand areas. I would wait for confirmation and trendline being broken on H4 before selling in this case.

The D1 has created brand new Demand against a non-fresh D1 supply, removing profit margin we'd need for a clear and obstacle-free drop. This is not good for a set and forget short.

See below the H4 and D1 charts on USDJPY.
Alfonso
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 41 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,635
  • Dec 2, 2013 11:57am Dec 2, 2013 11:57am
Quoting rohule
{quote} Hi travolata, nice to know that you have 13 years of trading experience, but if you dont trade S&R why are you here?
Hi rohule,

Yep, I have 13 years trading as well .. and .. I was wondering the same thing??? " Why is travolata here? "

I really dont get, why some on FF feel, the need to display such a poor attitude toward a method. And to further go out of their way to to display this poor attitude. If one does not like or disagrees with a method, system or idea then just move on, find something that works for you.

In the end, the method, system or idea will either prove itself or it will fail. So many look for absolutes instead of thinking in terms of probabilities. I believe this is where this attutude comes from. The need to be right, the absolute.

Alfonso continues to put forth a tremendous amount of effort and work regarding this method. He conitnues to move forward, helping those who wish to get involved with this method.

Good trading to all

TSD
  • #3,636
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:15pm Dec 2, 2013 12:15pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hey there The monthly chart is up, the weekly chart is up, usd is very strong versus the japanese yen. Yen is very week on all cross pairs as well. That trade would be counter-trend, we need to have a fresh and original level on H4 to short, which is there. However, everything is up, WK, Monthly, D1, H4, H4 TL being respected even on little H4 demand areas. I would wait for confirmation and trendline being broken on H4 before selling in this case. The D1 has created brand new Demand against a non-fresh D1 supply, removing profit margin...

  • #3,637
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:21pm Dec 2, 2013 12:21pm
For those who attended last live webinar, I just wanted to update on 2 of the trades for which I had explained in detail the reasons for my entries: CADJPY long and GBPJPY long.

Both screenshots are attached. You had the opportunity to take the H4 long on GBPJPY on the webinar, if you did you would be +450 pips up. CADJPY is also working with more than 100 pips now and at Breakeven. There is a brand new H4 demand zone created which could work as well.

GBPJPY is in buy mode, so it would be great to buy all valid levels of demand on H4 as long as H4 trend H4 is not broken.
Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 25 KB
Attached Image
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,638
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:24pm Dec 2, 2013 12:24pm
Thanks Serijbok and Alfonso for your reply. I guess these lessons will rake some time for me to understand, but I ill read post 1 slowly again.

Alfonso, could you please explain why some videos on your post are "private"? How can I view them?
  • #3,639
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:35pm Dec 2, 2013 12:35pm
Quoting Abzozo1
Thanks Serijbok and Alfonso for your reply. I guess these lessons will rake some time for me to understand, but I ill read post 1 slowly again. Alfonso, could you please explain why some videos on your post are "private"? How can I view them?
It's all explained on previous posts, long story. It's in fact the one of the reasons why I had to create a private web site. I had to re-record them in different ways making them even more personal, but they are available to the private community sorry.

Take your time, reading post #1 will not give you the insights the same way reading a grammer book on english won't make you speak english. You need lots of screentime and practice like anything else in life, it's all explained on Post #1 when I talk about backtesting and forward testing.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #3,640
  • Dec 2, 2013 1:43pm Dec 2, 2013 1:43pm
Quoting panoramia
{quote} It's all explained on previous posts, long story. It's in fact the one of the reasons why I had to create a private web site. I had to re-record them in different ways making them even more personal, but they are available to the private community sorry. Take your time, reading post #1 will not give you the insights the same way reading a grammer book on english won't make you speak english. You need lots of screentime and practice like anything else in life, it's all explained on Post #1 when I talk about backtesting and forward testing....
Hi Alfonso,

Would be great help if you could post the SupportAndResistance dll file you use in you Forex tester 2 video.

Many thanks
Max
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