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GBP/AUD

  • #41
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:39am Nov 26, 2013 9:39am
Hopefully we can see some profit taking so i can enter long here....im just not comfortable doing that right now regardless of the fundamentals.
  • #42
  • Nov 26, 2013 3:50pm Nov 26, 2013 3:50pm
Personally, I see an imminent major correction in this pair, to the tune of 400-500 pips.
  • #43
  • Nov 26, 2013 7:56pm Nov 26, 2013 7:56pm
Quoting Subdude
Personally, I see an imminent major correction in this pair, to the tune of 400-500 pips.

Any reasoning behind? Pls elaborate.
Thanx a lot
Everything is gonna be OK at the end. If its not OK Its not the end
  • #44
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:22pm Nov 26, 2013 9:22pm
Quoting Subdude
Personally, I see an imminent major correction in this pair, to the tune of 400-500 pips.

It all depends on AUD when it will stop dropping, but a good chance to visit near 90-89 area. I am afraid, if GBPUSD does not fall in the same way, this pair can shoot up another 300 pips easy. From there it will drop 1000 pips in a month or so. All pairs corrected from the top somewhat except for GBPUSD. But you know when it will fall, it will fall freely. Timing is the issue here, when to enter short, chart will be a waste of time. But if someone has equity power, adding short every 100 pips will be perfect for a 1000 pips drop.
  • #45
  • Edited 12:52pm Nov 27, 2013 12:36pm | Edited 12:52pm
Quoting Subdude
Personally, I see an imminent major correction in this pair, to the tune of 400-500 pips.
Hmm ok, but bear in mind that Hope can be deadly in trading!

Fact: We are above 200MA on 4H, 60MA on 4H, price is making higher highs and higher lows.
Fact: Trends tend to persist and drag on for extended periods.
Fact: There are typically on average only 3 crosses of 200 MA per pair PER year.

To me I see fresh trends on all GBP pairs. Until price breaks down below 60MA in a swift fashion, swing trade long. You never know where it will take you to. Trying to short this is like trying to sit on the outside of a rocket and hope you don't get blown to smithereens.

Fact: the top is always clear in the rear-view mirror.
Fact: The best and most powerful moves only happen after price crosses 60LWMA and 240LWMA on 4hr chart in direction of trend - long way to go before you start shorting.

If you ask me what differentiates GAMBLING in a casino from trading forex, it'd be that forex is predictable in the sense that price tends to travel in the direction of prevailing trend more often than not. If you don't trade with the trend you are basically gambling. (unless you are really experienced and you set up your counter-trend edge with a lot of research and study)
Build good relationships with others.
  • #46
  • Dec 1, 2013 10:20am Dec 1, 2013 10:20am
This pair is showing up in both long and short strategies at the moment.

Going to probably dip a toe in on the short side at the start of trading today, the Chinese numbers should help AUD. But then again this move is largely due to RBA-guv speak cautiousness is warranted.

End of year book closing coming up which usually helps USD. Which should spill over to other currencies.

Will look back in a while.
  • #47
  • Dec 1, 2013 10:53am Dec 1, 2013 10:53am
Quoting shellsnail
....If you don't trade with the trend you are basically gambling....

Absolutely correct.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #48
  • Dec 1, 2013 5:33pm Dec 1, 2013 5:33pm
Quoting Subdude
Personally, I see an imminent major correction in this pair, to the tune of 400-500 pips.
A minor correction of around 500pips to new support at the 1.75 area sounds reasonable. Any falls lower than this (providing current market drivers remain valid) will provide good opportunities to take longer term positions targeting 1.9 - 2.0.

A major shift in interest rate differentials caused by the economic backdrop look set to continue. Future rate speculation is already being priced in IMHO, however price has some distance yet to travel I think.

I posted some analysis on another thread that may be of interest;

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...65#post7126065

VP
Nil desperandum
  • #49
  • Dec 13, 2013 4:58am Dec 13, 2013 4:58am
Quoting vincentprice
{quote} A minor correction of around 500pips to new support at the 1.75 area sounds reasonable. Any falls lower than this (providing current market drivers remain valid) will provide good opportunities to take longer term positions targeting 1.9 - 2.0. A major shift in interest rate differentials caused by the economic backdrop look set to continue. Future rate speculation is already being priced in IMHO, however price has some distance yet to travel I think. I posted some analysis on another thread that may be of interest; http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...65#post7126065...
Hey vincent,

Any thoughts about long GBP/JPY?
  • #50
  • Edited 1:47pm Dec 13, 2013 1:30pm | Edited 1:47pm
Quoting zOrO2kX
{quote} Hey vincent, Any thoughts about long GBP/JPY?
Hello

I have a mid-long term target of 180-184 for this pair. 184 being the 50% fib retrace of the large downtrend from 2007. Currently price has hit the 38.2% fib and reached the top of a rising channel as marked on the chart below. It is also clear to see that price reacted multiple times to the 23.8% fib level using it as both support and resistance. I would expect the similar to happen at the current fib level. Market drivers are all positive IMO and historically speaking when the US economy is in bull mode the Yen weakens. I would like to enter this pair on a pullback, 160, 154 and 147 being levels I would consider to load up long.

This is just one of many scenarios that could easily be invalidated if there are changes to the background economic drivers and just one possibility I see right now. Much patience needed!!

If you look at the 1h it is clearly visible how price has been repeatedly bouncing off the fib 38.2% level throughout December, worth noting!

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20y chart shows bull/bear trend

Attached Image
Nil desperandum
  • #51
  • Dec 14, 2013 3:36am Dec 14, 2013 3:36am
I think we could have seen some retrace last week, but Stevens made sure that didn't happen. Looked like manipulation to me, they loaded up on EUR and GBP the day before he announced that garbage. 1600 pips with very little selling. Yeah, I expect some heavy movement downwards at some point.

Sell stop @ 1.785, if she keeps going up I will move my stop and expect a much larger move down.
  • #52
  • Dec 15, 2013 2:56am Dec 15, 2013 2:56am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Hmm ok, but bear in mind that Hope can be deadly in trading! Fact: We are above 200MA on 4H, 60MA on 4H, price is making higher highs and higher lows. Fact: Trends tend to persist and drag on for extended periods. Fact: There are typically on average only 3 crosses of 200 MA per pair PER year. To me I see fresh trends on all GBP pairs. Until price breaks down below 60MA in a swift fashion, swing trade long. You never know where it will take you to. Trying to short this is like trying to sit on the outside of a rocket and hope you don't get...
You score good point with your technical clue.

The trend is your friend,but on the other hand,trends do reverse or at least correct themselves.

Moving averages are noted "lagging indicators"

and BoE is somewhat posing dovishly which is GBP -ve http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...eculation.html
  • #53
  • Dec 15, 2013 2:59am Dec 15, 2013 2:59am
Quoting vincentprice
{quote} Hello I have a mid-long term target of 180-184 for this pair. 184 being the 50% fib retrace of the large downtrend from 2007. Currently price has hit the 38.2% fib and reached the top of a rising channel as marked on the chart below. It is also clear to see that price reacted multiple times to the 23.8% fib level using it as both support and resistance. I would expect the similar to happen at the current fib level. Market drivers are all positive IMO and historically speaking when the US economy is in bull mode the Yen weakens. I would like...
You are very much in time with levels,keep an eye on the pulse man...ya rock...i`m loving how ya keep it SIMPLE!
  • #54
  • Dec 15, 2013 4:41am Dec 15, 2013 4:41am
Im trying to find an alternate pair to long GBP (long term). Since i don't expect future USD weakness GBP/USD is out of que question. This leave us to GBP/AUD (with big neg swap) and GBP/JPY (descent pos swap)

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  • #55
  • Dec 27, 2013 8:19am Dec 27, 2013 8:19am
Hello everyone new to the forum so I'm just throwing my two cents in........Even though it could not close above the high the daily trend is still up and so is the momentum coming back into the market, so I'm still bullish and holding for now
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  • #56
  • Jan 8, 2014 10:37am Jan 8, 2014 10:37am
Long this pair off a 1hr trendline, got in on the doji formation
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  • #57
  • Jan 8, 2014 8:59pm Jan 8, 2014 8:59pm
If $GBPAUD holds 1.8500, completes this H&S and makes a run on the 1.8225 neckline,
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  • #58
  • Feb 13, 2014 7:23am Feb 13, 2014 7:23am
Short GBPAUD 1.8550
The trader IS the holy grail.
  • #59
  • Feb 13, 2014 8:14pm Feb 13, 2014 8:14pm
Very very nice entry turu..
  • #60
  • Feb 13, 2014 8:46pm Feb 13, 2014 8:46pm
Shorted both G/A and G/N a bit ago. Can't say that I'm extremely proud yet
not to mention that if it all goes bad it's "double my displeasure".

Not a huge amount of room for tolerance...... I'll just bang the drums and stay
awake for awhile.

GL

SB
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
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