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Beyond the Candles

  • #1,501
  • Edited Nov 10, 2013 8:20am Nov 9, 2013 4:16pm | Edited Nov 10, 2013 8:20am
FXGroup,


Yahoo looks interesting. Taking out 34 can be a bullish setup.
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  • #1,502
  • Nov 9, 2013 4:31pm Nov 9, 2013 4:31pm
Quoting fxgroup
AUDNZD up-date..the P reached the RM'R as the main TG ! {image} IRM tells me to put in practice what we are studying in this thread: W-is in RM with the P that close exactly at our very important level 27.14 D-PTT&TTP I will wait for the P to close above 27.14+RET+buyers confirmation in order to push the P higher to 29 in confluence with the bearish TL as dynamic RM's R ! {image} {image}
AUDNZD is back to RM'S.
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  • #1,503
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:26pm Nov 9, 2013 6:26pm
Quoting fxgroup
{quote} Do you remember this post ?....take a look today...nothing fancy....just the simple Price ! {image}

How do you trade this when no SW pull back?
  • #1,504
  • Nov 12, 2013 10:29am Nov 12, 2013 10:29am
AUDCHF

Look what the candles do at the resistant zone on different timeframe. I waited the last weekly close, and I opened the position on this week.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,505
  • Edited 2:31pm Nov 16, 2013 2:17pm | Edited 2:31pm
Quoting Dariusz
{quote} AUDUSD _M WPD+WPG Price broke previous support and now heading toward next TG support at 0.93283. {image} {image}

Remember this look where the price is now .

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And USDJPY as Fxgroup said why not trade in rush ?

PB at S, but shortly after TL penetration as quick movment at triangle apex.
Nevertheless first TG hitted.

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  • #1,506
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:47am Nov 18, 2013 2:47am
Quoting Dariusz
{quote} PB at S, but shortly after TL penetration as quick movment at triangle apex. Nevertheless first TG hitted.
You pointed out a very interesting aspect of trading into the triangle's apex !...look at the bearish candle how reaches the TG then increases its volatility and occupied all the space betwen the dynamic S and R.

SRI

Here is a chart where we can see how important and clear the P respects the S/ R leves. I will wait for the P to close above the 12.77 and its confirmation as S in order to reach the 17.09. Beeing a M chart it won't be so easy and certainly not a short road but I will use the market's structure informationS in order to adapt the best and the safiest MM .
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Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,507
  • Nov 20, 2013 2:51am Nov 20, 2013 2:51am
AUDSGD

M-PB bearish
W-the P turned beack within the old RM
D-the P retracements to the R of the old RM+ H&S with RT to the NL ( neck-line).
The pattern's projection is in conflunce with the S level of the old RM as the final main TG !
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-11-20_09-42 AUDSGD.png Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-11-20_09-45_AUDSGD-W.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-11-20_09-48_AUDSGD-D.png Size: 46 KB
Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,508
  • Nov 23, 2013 1:58am Nov 23, 2013 1:58am
AUDCAD Daily.

There were quite a few traders I know who were looking at the advance in AUDCAD and defined the most recent drop from the highs as a corrective swing, or in Elliottwave terms a 4th wave ( corrective ).

However this - as we know thanks to fxgroup - makes it all very complicated. It could just as well be a count from the top, as the multi-week drop was certainly impulsive.

So rather than get confused, we can mark the M,W and D levels ( + dynamic simple S + R ) and follow price where it wants to go.

Here is Daily. I couldnīt get trapped in the blue false breakout, as all the other AUD pairs were already showing bearish behaviour.

Regards,

Mike

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Be like water.
  • #1,509
  • Nov 23, 2013 10:33am Nov 23, 2013 10:33am
Hi Mike,

Nice & simple as it should. As You pointed out now we have importan MM levels.

"W" swing closed just in the middle of previous one and between two close SR levels.
I think it is too risky to jump in any trade on this pair at the moment.
We got just information, now we have to wait for confirmation .

GL to All !

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  • #1,510
  • Nov 23, 2013 9:10pm Nov 23, 2013 9:10pm
Quoting Beertje
Hi fxgroup, I have a question. When do you move your stop in breakeven?
Speaking about Forex, there are two approaches to this.
The old school way told to move at break even as soon as possible, so you'd get a secured, free trade.

This worked until some years ago, when prices would definitely gain momentum after a price action pattern and take off. Some still suggest doing this, it's mostly people who switched from trading to teaching .

These days, instead, you may be reasonably sure that price shall retrace back to your entry point and hit the level of your buy / sell order again, before finally taking off. Therefore if you move to break even ASAP you get stopped out in few bars. This imposes a riskier trading style, where at first you move the stop loss below (bullish orders) the bar that triggered the trade and then you have to look at the price evolution. If it takes off then you are OK putting the stop loss at break even. If it goes a bit lazy, you have to wait till price hits your first money management level and this puts you at risk.
There are some tecniques to reduce this risk but none is fool proof.
Sadly the days of safe and early break even are fading and you just have to accept more risk.
  • #1,511
  • Nov 24, 2013 2:07pm Nov 24, 2013 2:07pm
Quoting msmarple
AUDCAD Daily. There were quite a few traders I know who were looking at the advance in AUDCAD and defined the most recent drop from the highs as a corrective swing, or in Elliottwave terms a 4th wave ( corrective ). However this - as we know thanks to fxgroup - makes it all very complicated. It could just as well be a count from the top, as the multi-week drop was certainly impulsive. So rather than get confused, we can mark the M,W and D levels ( + dynamic simple S + R ) and follow price where it wants to go. Here is Daily. I couldnīt...
Agreed Mike. The weekly candle that closed below R 1.0000 about 4 weeks back was a definite no no for bulls. This one looks like its trip further south has only just begun too.
  • #1,512
  • Nov 25, 2013 1:56am Nov 25, 2013 1:56am
Quoting fxgroup
AUDSGD M-PB bearish W-the P turned beack within the old RM D-the P retracements to the R of the old RM+ H&S with RT to the NL ( neck-line). The pattern's projection is in conflunce with the S level of the old RM as the final main TG ! {image} {image} {image}
Do you remember this post ?...have you ever had the curiousity to check your chart to see the P ???...here is the up date...this post was made BEFORE all this happened...!!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,513
  • Nov 25, 2013 4:21am Nov 25, 2013 4:21am
Quoting fxgroup
{quote} Do you remember this post ?...have you ever had the curiousity to check your chart to see the P ???...here is the up date...this post was made BEFORE all this happened...!!! {image} {image}

Indeed , very spectacular price behaviour

H&S formations are not so much obvious, can You explain what exactly inform you that you spotted correct H&S formation ?
  • #1,514
  • Nov 25, 2013 4:38am Nov 25, 2013 4:38am
Very nice fxgroup !

I watched it but didnīt trade it because of the spread at my broker.

Hopefully more charts to come this month.

Mike
Be like water.
  • #1,515
  • Nov 25, 2013 4:41pm Nov 25, 2013 4:41pm
What do you think about GOLD ?

"M"+"W" consolidation within triangle

"D" PB at support ? But as always inside triangle we can expect more doji approching to apex.

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  • #1,516
  • Nov 26, 2013 5:22am Nov 26, 2013 5:22am
Dariusz I will have a look at Gold and post what I see.

In the meantime back to EURGBP, only the very basic Monthly.

Best wishes to all.

Mike

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Be like water.
  • #1,517
  • Nov 27, 2013 7:44am Nov 27, 2013 7:44am
NZDCHF.....on my radar ...simple as it is....the trade is simple....all you hafe to do is studying the price and its behaviour ...put some charts and let's talk about it !
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Nothing personal,just business
  • #1,518
  • Nov 30, 2013 3:49pm Nov 30, 2013 3:49pm
NZDCAD
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  • #1,519
  • Dec 1, 2013 2:27am Dec 1, 2013 2:27am
Would you consider this as W Reverse H&S ?

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  • #1,520
  • Dec 1, 2013 6:29am Dec 1, 2013 6:29am
Quoting Dariusz
Would you consider this as W Reverse H&S ? {image}

What I see on the monthly chart is a possible M formation.
On the weekly you can see why I think it will go down. This is my plan...
On the last pict, you can see there is enough place between the two arrows to make some pips.
But the price need to break down and retest S/R line!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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