Why Simple is better in trading and Complex is not

that last chart was a 30 min - I was just looking for an entry
the sma was basically flat on the 30 - but it was down on the 60 min
I did not take the trade

Ok thx.

Is this how you would draw a channel on this chart?

http://charts.mql5.com/3/194/gold-h1...l-services.png

looks pretty good

I have found channels will over rule the 50/14
esp. in stocks and commodities
forex is a trend market
stocks and commodities are more support and resistance
and I do little with them
so likely best for you to talk to some one else if you trade gold

Not especially, just that NY is the middle of my night, so I look for Asian trades extending into London.

Gold is something asians seem to trade, so I get some movement .

Exactly the same pattern as yesterday's EURUSD -- bouncing at EMA200. I'm about to move SL to BE.
Edit: SL=BE hit

Waiting for the last bar to close... I want it to touch EMA50 and bounce (green line)
Edit I missed an entry -- hesitated with no touch on EMA50
Edit woulda shoulda coulda bla bla bla +50 by now... You flinch, you don't gain...

I'd like it to drop to 62885 where I've got a buy order waiting Yesterdays bullish daily candle opening price lines up just nice.

I wouldn't go short AUDUSD -- divergence on 4H. Also not enough retracement to resume the main down trend... Just my two cents
Edit: also it just hit a critical area on daily...

you may well be right and in trading will come losing trades- esp on a very low volume days like today
but my rules do not take into account for either divergence on 4H or critical area on daily
I have to go with my rules - right

thx

I understand. Rules are rules, no? It's important to follow them; otherwise, the whole method is meaningless.

Go for it and get it, man!

BTW, I very much appreciate your sharing your charts - quite educational.

Going flat for the weekend - do not want get caught when Oanda spreads grow
slow day - no volume
great week

I use Oanda and have the same problem. And Citifx is even worse, especially NZD and exotic ones. But I use only these two brokers for live trading....
Great weekend

how was your week - you like the 15 mins

I wonder how many people has this thread helped

can make money with just two tools

that is about as simple as it gets

if it has helped you drop a line

Not bad at all --- about +75 (usual weekly profit). I don't make tons of pips, but don't lose either

This thread is great!! To me, it's a gold mine. I dug out the SMA50/CCI method and the "friction" method so far.

Let's just keep going! We can post new methods and/or trade experience for further learning.

This is one of very few worth following threads in FF

As a programmer — where all trading rules must be defined in strict mathematical terms, so that they can be coded — "simple" does not work for me. The items you describe (trend, S/R, S/D, etc) are all complex visual abstracts, that are not only uncodeable, but are ambiguous to whatever extent they mean different things to different people.

IMO a lot of trading is contextual — e.g. a certain setup that works well in some situations, may not work as profitably in others — and is therefore not necessarily "simple". This is well explained here (the blue text).

Anyway, each to their own. If you can make simple concepts work profitably, more power to you.

I am not a programmer, But I was speaking to a top one (if not THE top) Programmer for one of the big 5 banks in Canada about 3 months ago and he said something interesting. He said contrary to what people think human traders are by far the best traders.

Most of the programs he writes for the bank traders are of two natures
1. taking money from new or bad traders - he likened it to cutting grass it keeps growing and the bank cut it and take it in
2. and 2nd he said and this is the growing part he called it "harvesting" - is were they are going after computer programs.
he said they are easy to trap and ambush - because were people can learn - computers for the most part cannot.
He said his bank has a number of programmers that look for then defeat retail programs- "eat them up"
he said a retail computer programs vs the banks computer programs - is like a knife in a gun fight -then he laughed
- and said more like a knife in a tank fight - as banks have so many more ways to do defence them self and not just go on the offence.
He said were humans are harder for a number of reasons - the two I remember he said were,
1. Humans learn (hopefully lol)
2. Humans have discretion . ie. as you said "S/R or S/D or the angel on the trend line" humans can and do all make different choices
and this can be hard for computers. - the math.

ie. for me the 50 sma is simple to read - when it flattens a little I know that is a great sign - the computer math is likely hard but for humans its simple
were the over bough/over sold tools are simple for computers and that is why we have so many tools based on them.

that is why I said "human" simple is one of our greatest weapons - and 2nd the fact we can follow without having to change hard math

thx for your thoughts!! I love hearing from programmers!!

teb

I'm totally with TEB on this simple trading. As described before I personally ONLY use a EMA(12) as tool. From these years of trading I have learned that there is no need for any other tool. I simply need a tool to clear the trend for me that's it. That's the ONLY edge a retail trader needs and in my belief could get. Than what I need is more "managing my trades".

I've moved on from finding the best tool (Some call it the holy grail) to more of better managing my trades so that at the end of the day I'm in profit.

For example yesterday even it was a choppy day & London open wasn't any good but with managing trades I still made around 1%.

Nowadays I don't care about Fib's, S/R, Supply/Demand, Over Bought/Sold, Divergence, .... ONLY Simply following the now trend. So how I enter is no big deal. How much I trade, When do I exit is the big deal.

that's me I'm sure there are other ways to skin the cat too.
Regards,

Boy This is a great List!!!!!!

Dennis Gartman's 19 Rules Of Trading: 2013 was great year for stocks and a crazy year for bonds. But the amount of money you made depends on how you traded. Dennis Gartman's 19 Rules Of Trading Here they are verbatim:

1. NEVER, EVER, EVER ADD TO A LOSING POSITION: EVER!: Adding to a losing position eventually leads to ruin, remembering Enron, Long Term Capital Management, Nick Leeson and myriad others.

2. TRADE LIKE A MERCENARY SOLDIER: As traders/investors we are to fight on the winning side of the trade, not on the side of the trade we may believe to be economically correct. We are pragmatists first, foremost and always.

3. MENTAL CAPITAL TRUMPS REAL CAPITAL: Capital comes in two forms... mental and real... and defending losing positions diminish one’s finite and measurable real capital and one’s infinite and immeasurable mental capital accordingly and always.

4. WE ARE NOT IN THE BUSINESS OF BUYING LOW & SELLING HIGH: We are in the business of buying high & selling higher, or of selling low & buying lower. Strength begets strength; weakness more weakness.

5. IN BULL MARKETS ONE MUST TRY ALWAYS TO BE LONG OR NEUTRAL: The corollary, obviously, is that in bear markets one must try always to be short or neutral. There are exceptions, but they are very, very rare.

6. "MARKETS CAN REMAIN ILLOGICAL FAR LONGER THAN YOU OR I CAN REMAIN SOLVENT:" So said Lord Keynes many years ago and he was... and is... right, for illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe.

7. BUY THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST STRENGTH; SELL THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST WEAKNESS: Metaphorically, the wettest paper sacks break most easily and the strongest winds carry ships the farthest, fastest.

8. THINK LIKE A FUNDAMENTALIST; TRADE LIKE A TECHNICIAN: Be bullish... or bearish... only when the technicals and the fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.

9. TRADING RUNS IN CYCLES; SOME GOOD, MOST BAD: In the “Good Times” even one’s errors are profitable; in the inevitable “Bad Times” even the most well researched trade shall goes awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.

10. KEEP YOUR SYSTEMS SIMPLE: Complication breeds confusion; simplicity breeds elegance & profitability.

11. UNDERSTANDING MASS PSYCHOLOGY IS ALMOST ALWAYS MORE IMPORTANT THAN UNDERSTANDING ECONOMICS: Or more simply put, "When they’re cryin’ you should be buyin’ and when they’re yellin’ you should be sellin’!"

12. REMEMBER, THERE IS NEVER JUST ONE COCKROACH: The lesson of bad news is that more shall follow... usually hard upon and always with worsening impact.

13. BE PATIENT WITH WINNING TRADES; BE ENORMOUSLY IMPATIENT WITH LOSERS: Need we really say more?

14. DO MORE OF THAT WHICH IS WORKING AND LESS OF THAT WHICH IS NOT: This works well in life as well as trading. If there is a “secret” to trading... and to life... this is it.

15. CLEAN UP AFTER YOURSELF: Need we really say more? Errors only get worse.

16. SOMEONE’S ALWAYS GOT A BIGGER JUNK YARD DOG: No matter how much “work” we do on a trade, someone knows more and is more prepared than are we... and has more capital!

17. PAY ATTENTION: The market sends signals more often than not missed and/or disregarded... so pay attention!

18. WHEN THE FACTS CHANGE, CHANGE! Lord Keynes... again... once said that “When the facts change, I change; what do you do, Sir?” When the technicals or the fundamentals of a position change, change your position, or at least reduced your exposure and perhaps exit entirely.

19. ALL RULES ARE MEANT TO BE BROKEN: But they are to be broken only rarely and true genius comes with knowing when, where and why!

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/dennis-gartmans-19-rules-of-trading-2013-11#ixzz2m5lQEXhX