Does the martingale system really work? | Page 16 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Martingale, Anti-martingale, and Compounding 40 replies

Martingale, Reverse Martingale, Modified Martingale, Maths 1 reply

How to change this Martingale to Reverse Martingale ? 3 replies

Martingale vs. Non Martingale (Simplified RoR vs Profit) 1 reply

Does this simple system by Richard Donchian really work? 134 replies

Attachments: Does the martingale system really work?
Exit Attachments

Does the martingale system really work?

  • #301
  • Nov 26, 2013 8:53pm Nov 26, 2013 8:53pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: winner.PNG Size: 35 KB
  • #302
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:00pm Nov 26, 2013 9:00pm
Hello sir. I support your theory on martingale (Pro). As I currently use it and have had amazing results with it thus far. I don't scalp as you do, yet my win % is well over 92%. I'm currently the number PAMM leader on hotforex. You can simply click my name here on ff.com to see my stats. Master_kiwa you have my undivided attention. Please keep up the good work.
  • #303
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:00pm Nov 26, 2013 9:00pm
Quoting Master_kiwa
{quote} Once again what good is your simulator if your entries aren't calculated. You're simply entering positions on heads or tails. Most of us don't take wagers on that method. At least I don't. Which means your c++ is a "waste of time". As what is simulated almost never occurs as frequently in the real world.
Wrong. You can enter your expectancy in the simulator as a percentage; surely you expect your strategy to win a certain percentage of the time, don't you?
  • #304
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:05pm Nov 26, 2013 9:05pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Wrong. You can enter your expectancy in the simulator as a percentage; surely you expect your strategy to win a certain percentage of the time, don't you?
That is just it. Expectancy and reality are two different things. One can never calculate reality, as to many undetermined factors can sway the numbers. Example. To say I have 85% rate. Can mean I win 8.5 times out of 10. or 16 TIMES OUT OF 20 or even 850 times out of 1000. Yet if I win 850 times out of 1000. I would very well win 850 times in a row, withdraw all my profit, and lose the next 150 times in a row! What I am saying is giving a percentage is one thing, but how can you actually calculate how the percentage will play out in a real life situation. You can't! Which makes your simulator useless.
  • #305
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:07pm Nov 26, 2013 9:07pm
Quoting Master_kiwa
{quote} That is just it. Expectancy and reality are two different things. One can never calculate reality, as to many undetermined factors can sway the numbers. Example. To say I have 85% rate. Can mean I win 8.5 times out of 10. or 16 TIMES OUT OF 20 or even 850 times out of 1000. Yet if I win 850 times out of 1000. I would very well win 850 times in a row, withdraw all my profit, and lose the next 150 times in a row! What I am saying is giving a percentage is one thing, but how can you actually calculate how the percentage will play out in a real...
You're an idiot if you seriously think because we can't predict the future with perfect accuracy that the field of probability and statistics is "useless". I think what's really going on is you're running out of excuses and that you know deep down in your heart that your core argument is about to fall flat on its face.
  • #306
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:07pm Nov 26, 2013 9:07pm
Still moving to the upside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: winnerwinner.PNG Size: 32 KB
  • #307
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:10pm Nov 26, 2013 9:10pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} You're an idiot if you seriously think because we can't predict the future with perfect accuracy that the field of probability and statistics is "useless". I think what's really going on is you're running out of excuses and that you know deep down in your heart that your core argument is about to fall flat on its face.
Kanzler please try to not call people out of their names. I'm not an idiot. I simply don't share your P.O.V. Probability and REALITY are two different things. Probability only factors in the black and white factors. Where as REALITY factors in EVERYTHING else in the middle. Such as "Human emotion", or "Human error". I bet your C- - didn't calculate that! Which makes it useless!
  • #308
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:11pm Nov 26, 2013 9:11pm
Quoting Master_kiwa
{quote} Kanzler please try to not call people out of their names. I'm not an idiot. I simply don't share your P.O.V. Probability and REALITY are two different things. Probability only factors in the black and white factors. Where as REALITY factors in EVERYTHING else in the middle. Such as "Human emotion", or "Human error". I bet your C- - didn't calculate that! Which makes it useless!
Wow.

Go tell that to the casino, and poker players, and bowlers, and doctors, and typists, and...

Somehow you can't grasp that numbers can represent reality. But considering you live in some fantasy-land of your own creation this is not surprising really.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #309
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:13pm Nov 26, 2013 9:13pm
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Wow. Go tell that to the casino, and poker players, and bowlers, and doctors, and typists, and...
He has to be a troll. Nobody can seriously be this dumb.
  • #310
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:14pm Nov 26, 2013 9:14pm
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Wow. Go tell that to the casino, and poker players, and bowlers, and doctors, and typists, and...
Are we playing poker, or a casino game? Or are we speaking about forex. Noobcake is now on the ban list!
  • #311
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:15pm Nov 26, 2013 9:15pm
Quoting Master_kiwa
{quote} Are we playing poker, or a casino game? Or are we speaking about forex. Noobcake is now on the ban list!
Everything in life is about risk and reward. Probability and statistics are at the core of almost everything if you want to dig down deep enough. Your wholesale rejection of this concept is nothing less than stunning.
  • #312
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:17pm Nov 26, 2013 9:17pm
Quoting Master_kiwa
{quote} Are we playing poker, or a casino game? Or are we speaking about forex. Noobcake is now on the ban list!
OH NO DON'T PUT ME ON THE BAN LIST.

This... this ruins my whole day. Whatever will I do without "Master" kiwa showing me the error of my ways?
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #313
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:19pm Nov 26, 2013 9:19pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} He has to be a troll. Nobody can seriously be this dumb.
No, they can. Sometimes it's hard to tell if something is just really Poe or not. It's best to just assume it's honest stupidity until shown otherwise.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #314
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:22pm Nov 26, 2013 9:22pm
Quoting nubcake
{quote} OH NO DON'T PUT ME ON THE BAN LIST. This... this ruins my whole day. Whatever will I do without "Master" kiwa showing me the error of my ways?
lol, he added me too. Here's the kicker....the iggy list means almost nothing anymore, you can just click on the post to view it even with someone being ignored. Oh well this was fun while it lasted, time to seek entertainment elsewhere.
  • #315
  • Nov 26, 2013 10:24pm Nov 26, 2013 10:24pm
Master_kiwa added his TE in his signature and already he made 57% profit this week maybe he used martingale then why you guys argue with him at least give some more days him to prove his analogy
  • #316
  • Nov 26, 2013 10:26pm Nov 26, 2013 10:26pm
Quoting FX_James
Master_kiwa added his TE in his signature and already he made 57% profit this week maybe he used martingale then why you guys argue with him at least give some more days him to prove his analogy
57% profit on the one dollar he has left from the original hundred. I think the point has been proven. Have you taken a look at the simulator I posted?
  • #317
  • Nov 26, 2013 10:55pm Nov 26, 2013 10:55pm
Quoting FX_James
Master_kiwa added his TE in his signature and already he made 57% profit this week maybe he used martingale then why you guys argue with him at least give some more days him to prove his analogy

Because, James, some of us are not new to this shit. Some of us have spent more hours than you can count learning about a wide variety of topics pertaining to trading. Some of us have thought-about, visualized, tested, and more, different ideas and concepts. Some of us have the ability to see certain concepts from different angles, through experience as well as through basic knowledge of facts. Some of us can reduce certain peoples absurdities into simple, tangible, concepts that most people should be able to grasp.

Some of us are also able to see when someone is talking out of the wrong end of their body.

And yet, here some of you are. Still, hoping upon hope, that martingale will turn your losses into winners.

People looking at martingale are so far away from surviving the market that it's intellectually offensive for them to post the nonsense that they do, and then for others to have the ignorance to suggest there is any merit to what they say is just adding stupid upon more stupid.

Why would you, as a trader, not be content to keep things as simple as possible? Why would you, as a trader, not simply grind-out profits from your edge?

The ONLY reason to entertain martingale is to walk into the trading world with a "lotto ticket" mentality where you "hope" you are that one lucky idiot who manages to walk away with the grand prize, while everyone else pisses their silly money away going backwards.

If you were playing an unfair game (like a coin-toss with a weighted coin, or roulette, or whatever) then do you think that martingale helps you in any way overcome the inherent loss built-into the system?

If you were playing an unfair game that was in your favor then do you think martingale helps you in any way, at all?

Do you have an edge? If yes, why aren't you just trading your methods and safely growing your capital instead of being stupid and reckless with your grub stake? If no, why do you think martingale is going to help you profit?

If you, or anyone else here, can show martingale to somehow turn a losing system into a winner (and not just after a shitty small sample size that means nothing other than you didn't bust yet) then you will have somehow broken a mathematical absolute!

This shit isn't Parondo! Martingale does nothing but abstract your system into multiple, identical, systems, as well as stuff-around with your trading size unnecessarily and with zero benefit, and puts your account under needless risk and strain.

You should be able to do this shit forever, not have a lucky streak with some martingale and then cash-out. Luck doesn't get you far in this game, or any game for that matter.

So, James, why should anybody with a lick of sense entertain anyone talking about their "martingale" strategy? Even if this guy has an actual edge, then he's an absolute moron for going anywhere near martingale... and if he doesn't have an edge he's still a moron toying with martingale.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #318
  • Nov 26, 2013 11:04pm Nov 26, 2013 11:04pm
Harsh but a pretty straight up no bullshit post.
  • #319
  • Edited 11:55pm Nov 26, 2013 11:12pm | Edited 11:55pm
Quoting Master_kiwa
So being that pivots ALWAYS have a reversal before you ever lose more then 14 times in a row.
At the 14th level the total amount at risk is 1+2+4+8+16+32+64+128+256+512+1024+2048+4096+8192 = 16,383 times the original bet.
Quoting Master_kiwa
I never risk more then 20% of my account anyway.
Hence if 20% of the account needs to survive 14 levels, then the starting bet would need to be 20%/16383 = 0.00122%.

That's why I asked you what your starting bet size was. I can't see how you can make a decent return risking only 0.001% of your account, per wager.
What have I missed?
  • #320
  • Nov 26, 2013 11:42pm Nov 26, 2013 11:42pm
i could see master kiwa playing with his balance amount after the account wipe out but point is he is opening trade not based on coin toss but "pivot" can give some hope
8 traders viewing now