Fundamental Analysis Quantified

Thanks FerruFx,

I found it and subscribed.

Should be interesting to see what's coming from "ECB President Draghi Speaks".

Dear Sir,
I am speechless to think you would make such ultra polished and professional work available for free, Many blessings to you for this! I have been trying to wrap my mind around all this out there on my own, and you've quantified it beautifully, clearly and concisely.

And many thanks to the extremely professional and successful coder FerruFX for pointing the way. It was actually through his facebook page I first discovered it.

Just by the lurking I've been doing as a newbie trader along with hours of investigation, I knew if he recommended it had to be good, but I had no idea this good!

Many thanks again for your excellent work, and to the gentleman who pointed the way.

Yes I pointed this thread because I am 100% sure it has very high value for each trader.

Great that you found it to be usefull.

Hello:
How can I filter calendar events which its frequency 4 times per year (quarter) ?
did you have any link for that
thanks

Hi Gig_61, FerruFX,

Thanks so much, much appreciated.
Was away for the past few days and will be posting updated individual reports tomorrow (GMT+8) 9.00am.



Posting a updated quick snapshot summary fundamental scores for the night.
The official update with comments will be posted tomorrow.


QUICK UPDATE for 26-11-2013:
* CAD recently turning fundamentally stronger;

* EUR stays fundamentally weak;

* Generated Auto-suggested have dropped JPY pairs and changed to CAD pairs based on updates of data from 22-11-2013 till now. (pairs are automatically generated based on the scoring on the fundamental data by the invidual currencies);
* more in the quick summary report (unofficial)

Also will be setting up a live account to record history of auto-generated suggested trades with the below rules:
1. Fixed TP at 100pips, Fixed SL at -50pips.


Hope the reports did help.

Cheers.

Hi all,

Reports for 27-11-2013:



Highlights of Summary Report:
- CAD fundamentals turning bullish, AUD continues to post better data, though base still weak.
- Pending EURCAD short, Holding EURNZD short.
See more in Summary report.



Cheers.

Hi all,

Will be generating PRICE ACTION v.s. FUNDAMENTAL STRENGTHS graphics on a daily basis.
Uploaded a few for your enjoyment.



Hope it helps.
Kindly PM me if you think there's anything that can be added/improved.

Much appreciated.

* As this is auto-generated on a bulk basis. No comments are added. In general, currency pairs usually correlates to it's fundamental strength on a positive basis (i.e: if fundamental strength drops, spot price action drops). From time to time, there will be events that "decouples" price action from fundamentals (i.e: A bearish fundamental pair having bullish Price action due to suddenly Central Bank announcement, natural disasters...etc). However, it is more often than not, not permanent and market usually corrects itself after the panic/euphoria fades. The purpose of Fundamental Analysis Quantified aims to keep the overall fundamental picture in place, while keeping watch on "decoupling" events should it occur.

Cheers.

how we can make this charts?!
fore example how calculate inflation for USD by use cpi,core cpi,...?!
use averaging indicators fundamental to generate uni index?!

thanks

Hi,

Using 27-11-2013 USD Report (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1319582&d=1385519379) as example;
If you refer to the report, the fundamental strength of whole United States are segregated into 6 segments:

1) Inflation Indicator - Inflation, Producer production costs, labour costs, importing price for domestic importers...etc
2) Growth Indicators - GDP, trade accounts, domestic retail sales, factory sales...etc
3) Employment Indicators - Jobless rate, job gains, jobless claims... etc
4) Housing Indicators - depicts the housing results for whole of US
5) Business Surveys - depicts the current business sentiments for US
6) Consumer Surveys - consumer sentiments for US economy.

So on and so forth, the full indicators list can be found as individual charts inside the report.

Further in, the indicator contains data dating back to 2007 (but only shown as 2010 - 2013 of 3 years period as it tries to capture relevancy to spot trading as possible - data too far back might not be relevant in faster-paced traders - in our example, its a daily trading window instead of holding for 5 to 10 years).

Each of the indicator is weighted accordingly to it's importance (i.e: Core PCE will be weighted more as it is the preferred FED's inflation gauge, therefore the market will give it more importance/relevance when it comes to this data). The weaker (relevant, but not too market moving indicator like import price) data is also weighted accordingly to their importance / relevancy.

The CURRENT data release (i.e: Nov result), is then compared and weighted with the q/q (3months), y/y(12months) and 36months average (or also can be market/Central Bank's benchmark) to arrive in it's individual CURRENT score.

Consolidating all of them, the individual component scores of US can be seen in Page 1 of the report Top right hand corner, beside the chart.


Using the same methodology, other currency's fundamentals are also quantified and compared against each other.
The strongest quantified fundamental score is paired with the weakest fundamental score to generate auto-trade suggestion.
(i.e: NZD having strong fundamental score, EUR having weak fundamental score, and EUR/NZD is auto-generated as a Short Trade in summary report - and I'm holding bearish EUR/NZD bias until data proved otherwise, and NOTE the current decoupling is significant and EURNZD has gone bullish for awhile - and i'm still pending levels to add short - this is further shown as chart of EURNZD in Facebook, but I wouldn't post here as it's against the regulation of forexfactory.)

These are just suggestion and should be used in conjunction with technical tools, which is not extensively discussed as many traders have their individual preference in technical analysis. If you have not already read, decoupling of SPOT price action from fundamental is common, and the report aims to keep the overall fundamental picture, while keeping watch on any possible decoupling that is happening.

I hope the above answer your doubts and is not too messy for comprehension, feel free to PM me if you have more question or suggestions on the report.

Cheers.

Updates for 28-11-2013:




Reports available in link should you need it.
Have also uploaded today's series of requested Fundamental vs Price action pairs charts in FB.

Cheers.

28-11-2013: EURAUD Short Positioning
1.4900 a possible good risk:reward trade after latest AUD Private Capital Expenditure data.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Updates 29-11-2013:




Individual report available in the below link, should you require it..

1. eepurl.com/IzGQ1

Will be adding an "events new matrix" to capture catalytic news that decouples fundamentals to the Summary Report going forward.
Any suggestions welcomed, much appreciated.



Sample attached:

Cheers!

Its Great fundamental analysis report and I was actually looking for report to prepare to understand past fundamental news ..This report will help me in better over all trading decisions

2013-12-01 Update on EURCAD:


Current (latest immediate set of data) fundamental of EURCAD showed slight recovery, but Base (3months fundamental strength) of EURCAD bearish; de-coupling of price action from bearish fundamental evident.

- CAD Rate/Statement on 04-Dec should highlight strength of recovery for Canadian economy, to bring about bullish reaction.

- EUR Rate/Press Conference on 05-Dec should highlight the fact that though recent inflation edged up, is well below 2% ECB benchmark and Eurozone fundamental is still weak. To bring about bearish reaction.

CONCLUSION: Short EURCAD at current 1.4420 - 1.4450 region till after ECB Rate/Press.

*** NOTE: Trade to be dropped if otherwise circumstances arise from either fundamental events.
Comments for other pairs are posted in FB.

http://www.scotiafx.com/Chart_Feed/fxout.pdf

Hi all,

Have posted reports for 02-12-2013.
- Staying bearish EUR; bullish CAD, NZD.
- AUD recovery significant; going bullish against weaker currencies.
- Estimate timeline of EURCAD short in Summary report.
- Pending EURAUD re-short.

Summary Report attached for your convenience.


Cheers.

Reports for 02-12-2013:



(Time/Date in GMT+0800)
AUD: Expecting bullish reaction on 03-Dec (Expecting statement to highlight recent recovery in Australian Economy)
CAD: Expecting bullish reaction on 04-Dec (Expecting statement to highlight recent recovery in Canadian Economy)
EUR: Expecting bearish reaction on 05-Dec (Expecting press conference to highlight recent inflation edging up, but weakness in Eurozone economy)

GBP: Bullish bias, but no immediate technical entries
USD: Pending NFP Friday 06-Dec for further evaluation.
NZD: light week, bullish bias.

Also available in link: ​eepurl.com/IzGQ1