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EUR/AUD

  • #981
  • Nov 26, 2013 1:16pm Nov 26, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting ssaqeel
good catch lonewolf, stop hunt might go till 1.4805, bogus i am just curious you gone long on AU as well ,but if AU goes up then this pair comes down.(i think AU long is a short term trade?). {quote}
I think you are a bit mixed up. We are long this pair looking for 150. A spike to 1.48800 would be good for our longs. I was just telling him to keep his stops below the one hour support line at 1.48440
  • #982
  • Nov 26, 2013 1:42pm Nov 26, 2013 1:42pm
thanks lone even i m long on this pair, i was just asking bogus about his AU long. Good luck and thanks for your analysis.

Quoting lonewolf1
{quote} I think you are a bit mixed up. We are long this pair looking for 150. A spike to 1.48800 would be good for our longs. I was just telling him to keep his stops below the one hour support line at 1.48440
  • #983
  • Nov 26, 2013 1:48pm Nov 26, 2013 1:48pm
Quoting ssaqeel
thanks lone even i m long on this pair, i was just asking bogus about his AU long. Good luck and thanks for your analysis. {quote}

No problem my friend. I just think if we are gonna trade off daily chart, and look for bigger targets we cannot set stops so tight. Currencies as we know never go straight up or down. So you must leave some room for the trade to play out knowing that it will go up and down a bit. A 30 pip stop when trading a daily chart is not something we should do.

I don't think that is the problem here, but you always want to hide your stops below s/r levels not right at them. To easy to get stop hunted if you put them right at s/r levels.
  • #984
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:26pm Nov 26, 2013 4:26pm
Quoting ssaqeel
thanks lone even i m long on this pair, i was just asking bogus about his AU long. Good luck and thanks for your analysis. {quote}
Bogus turn from AU Bullish to Bearish. look at his post in the AU thread.
Nevertheless, I did not expect this pair to be extremely bullish without a retracement. Since the upmove, there have not been a decent retracement.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #985
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:37pm Nov 26, 2013 4:37pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} Bogus turn from AU Bullish to Bearish. look at his post in the AU thread. Nevertheless, I did not expect this pair to be extremely bullish without a retracement. Since the upmove, there have not been a decent retracement.

I'm flat now. Closed at BE on both new positions and the remainder of the EA long from yesterday. News good for Aussie.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #986
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:57pm Nov 26, 2013 4:57pm
Need This Ea to break this area then its onto 150.
  • #987
  • Nov 27, 2013 12:58am Nov 27, 2013 12:58am
Pure speculation here Guys n gals. You may have noticed this pair stayed in a range between 1.57 & 1.88 for 10 years before the 2008 markets crash. The AU plummeted & the EA rose to 2.11, only to roll over and finally land at 1.16. My thinking ( which you are entitled to regard as crap) is that the 10yr median at around 1.70 is the true home of the EA. That said my target of the present trend is at 1.54. This may however be the 1st leg of an ABC retrace. If so I would expect a return from 1.54 to around 1.35 then leg C up to 1.88. Barring world crisis events this pair could then go back to ranging the old range. As I said, pure speculation but food for thought. This correlates loosely with the Au going down to around 0.75. The DEMark projections & Fib's correlate nicely to back this up. Another thing. 1.54 isonly a 38% retrace of the down trend from 2.11 to 1.16.
Any comments on this verbal diarrhea.??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #988
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:41am Nov 27, 2013 1:41am
Hi KiwiOz

I apprecitate your insight on the market(s),
i'm fairly new to trading and to begin with it can be easy to rush in to trades
however to read someones thoughts who seems to know what there talking about gives me focus.

Can I ask how long you have been trading?
The Fib tools(yellow) and divergence(blue) on your templates are they fixed saved on your tp or can you direct me to the indies??


Regards
  • #989
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:10am Nov 27, 2013 2:10am
Quoting Armin2Forex
Hi KiwiOz I apprecitate your insight on the market(s), i'm fairly new to trading and to begin with it can be easy to rush in to trades however to read someones thoughts who seems to know what there talking about gives me focus. Can I ask how long you have been trading? The Fib tools(yellow) and divergence(blue) on your templates are they fixed saved on your tp or can you direct me to the indies?? Regards
Hi armin. Been trading about 10 yrs. Still learning. Yellow Fib' lines are standard on MT4. Blue lines are manually drawn lines. (My take on the DeMark system)
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  • #990
  • Nov 27, 2013 8:10am Nov 27, 2013 8:10am
Quoting lonewolf1
I still think it's going to 150 before any major retracement down.

Well done those who predicted 150 it got to 149.93. Trading is great when you look at higher time Frames. Well done
  • #991
  • Nov 27, 2013 8:27am Nov 27, 2013 8:27am
yes , so far so good, i think it still has room to go up atleast till the high of 28th August 1.5029. what do you say Lonewolf
Thanks bogus,lone, kiwi .


Quoting lonewolf1
{quote} Well done those who predicted 150 it got to 149.93. Trading is great when you look at higher time Frames. Well done
  • #992
  • Nov 27, 2013 8:31am Nov 27, 2013 8:31am
Quoting ssaqeel
yes , so far so good, i think it still has room to go up atleast till the high of 28th August 1.5029. what do you say Lonewolf Thanks bogus,lone, kiwi . {quote}

I agree. Nice thing about it is i have taken profit and stops at BE. So i will just let the rest ride.Again that's the nice thing about trading daily charts.
  • #993
  • Nov 27, 2013 7:32pm Nov 27, 2013 7:32pm
Look how close it came to my 2 TP Missed by less than a pip. Might still make it. Not a bad R:R with a 25 pip stop. My second TP long missed by 6 pips last night. Thats trading for ya. Interesting level now...will it carry on down or up.
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #994
  • Nov 27, 2013 8:19pm Nov 27, 2013 8:19pm
It looks like 1.5032 is a strong resistance on daily timeframe, this is the 3 time it came close to it ( 5th Aug, 28th Aug & 27th Nov) , is this the Triple top?. IMO it needs to break this resistance for more move up. What do you guys say?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #995
  • Nov 28, 2013 7:08am Nov 28, 2013 7:08am
Nice observation, sir.

On July 29th, 1.43178 was a took off point so to speak, it took 6 days to reach 1.5 - Aappendix

The same scenario accured again on 20th of November, it took 7 days from 1.43178 to kiss 1.5 - Bappendix

In A, RBA Glenn Stevens noted that current inflation environment would not hinder further interest rate cuts, the speach that dropped Aussie 400pips in a week
In B, IFM stressed out that ''Aussie is 10% overvalued that takes a toll on the non-mining sector'', the statement that saw Aussie ''plummeting'' 360pips in a week.

All focus will be whether RBA decides to cut the rates, statement is released on Monday(2nd of December).

Glenn Stevens and his crew said there was “mounting evidence” interest-rate cuts were working, even as it retained the option of loosening policy to support growth in an economy battling an “uncomfortably high” currency.

Is it a hint we are going to see rate cuts?
  • #996
  • Nov 28, 2013 3:49pm Nov 28, 2013 3:49pm
Quoting bogus
Look how close it came to my 2 TP Missed by less than a pip. Might still make it. Not a bad R:R with a 25 pip stop. My second TP long missed by 6 pips last night. Thats trading for ya. Interesting level now...will it carry on down or up. {image}

I would say its worth a 30 pip risk to short it here at daily resistance.
  • #997
  • Nov 28, 2013 7:07pm Nov 28, 2013 7:07pm
Quoting lonewolf1
{quote} I would say its worth a 30 pip risk to short it here at daily resistance.

I'll wait for a peak and trough lower on the 15 min chart, but yeah, it's at a very interesting level. I'm finished for the week but wouldn't be looking at sustainable longs. AU has hit .9050 which is the level I like. Rate announcement next week....
Are you out of longs now mate? You must have had a good week.
Have a good weekend all.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #998
  • Dec 2, 2013 4:22am Dec 2, 2013 4:22am
Quoting lonewolf1
{quote} I would say its worth a 30 pip risk to short it here at daily resistance.
I hope you did & are still short for this retracement. I have targets down to 1.4720. Today's DS3. It may even get to the 38% Fib' retrace at 1.4650..??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #999
  • Dec 2, 2013 7:45pm Dec 2, 2013 7:45pm
Kiwi,

It looks like the retracement on EA is done and its starting to get back to its main trend (up). what do you say?

Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} I hope you did & are still short for this retracement. I have targets down to 1.4720. Today's DS3. It may even get to the 38% Fib' retrace at 1.4650..?? {image}
  • #1,000
  • Dec 2, 2013 8:08pm Dec 2, 2013 8:08pm
Quoting ssaqeel
Kiwi, It looks like the retracement on EA is done and its starting to get back to its main trend (up). what do you say? {quote}
Not sure yet. Give it a few more hours.
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