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Time analysis - "the other half of the picture"

  • #41
  • Jul 4, 2006 12:24am Jul 4, 2006 12:24am
Curiosity got the better of me, so I thought I would have a quick look into the effects of the moon on price action while I was on this time based thing. I don't want to go into great astrological depth like some of the well respected traders have, but I thought I would at least throw the new and full moon times up on a daily chart and see what happened around those times, here is the result (blue lines are the new moon, red lines the full moon, note some are 1 day off as weekends are not included in my MT4 charts):

http://img45.imageshack.us/img45/6619/chart178ob.gif

Anything to it? .. what do you think?

You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #42
  • Jul 4, 2006 2:23pm Jul 4, 2006 2:23pm
Akuma,

The 4 hr Delta may be in sync with this. I must admit I have been lax in keeping my counting up. When I get a chance I will post. Plus I have problems putting charts on this forum. Will have to get another utility installed to do this. So much to do... so little time.

I could send you an email of my 4 hr if you wish to take a look. That would motivate me to do the updates.

Lou
  • #43
  • Jul 4, 2006 8:37pm Jul 4, 2006 8:37pm
Delta offers some very interesting insights into the timing of market moves. Is it worth the money that Wilder paid for it? I would not be inclined to have given as much when other timing measures are more accurate. But, this is just my humble opinion.

If you are curious, I am found of the work of Donald Bradley and have found the siderograph a very good guide from a cycles perspective. You would also be made to ponder after reading the works of Bressert. Both will help give a broad timing prespective on the markets. When you have an understanding of the broad timing analysis, the short term becomes much easier.
  • #44
  • Jul 4, 2006 9:55pm Jul 4, 2006 9:55pm
Thanks RogueTrader (love the band by the same name by the way), I will google those names and see what comes up, im sure it will make interesting reading.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #45
  • Jul 4, 2006 9:58pm Jul 4, 2006 9:58pm
Quote
Bradleys basic formula is this, for every planet, measure the distance between that planet and every other planet (excluding the Moon), and see if it's within a 15 degree orb of a Conjunction, Sextile, Square, Trine, or Opposition. If so it is given a weighted value all depending on the aspect and it's distance from exact. Squares and oppositions are minus, sextiles and trines are plus, conjunctions have different weightings depending on the planets involved.

When there is an aspect within orb, take the distance between the two planets (in degrees), subtract the number from 15 and then divide the result by 15, next multiply the result by 10.
An aspect which is exact gets a value of 10 and 0 if at a 15 degree orb. The weightings increase as the aspect becomes more exact.

This calculation is done for 36 planetary combinations, excluding the Moon.
The 36 combinations are separated into intermediate and long term cycles, with the 10 combinations of Jupiter through Pluto considered the long term, the other 26 represent the medium term cycles.
Next add the sum of the declinations of Venus and Mars, assign a positive value for northern declinations, negative for southern declinations. Add the values for both Venus and Mars and divide by two.
Add together all the long-term weights for the 10 long term cycles, (divided by two), and multiply this number by 4. Then add all the weights for the 26 intermediate term cycles and the Venus and Mars declination and this final number is the Siderograph on any one day.

why didn't you tell me it was so easy! ...
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #46
  • Jul 4, 2006 10:24pm Jul 4, 2006 10:24pm
Time is something that fascinates me a lot, however i have not figured out how to trade it yet...

look forward to see this thread developing.

the 600x600 picture size limit sux
  • #47
  • Jul 4, 2006 10:29pm Jul 4, 2006 10:29pm
Akuma,

Do you have skype or MSN? I am looking into planetary aspect correlations etc, i am interested in talking to you about this side of things. My skype name is williamxu.
  • #48
  • Jul 4, 2006 11:21pm Jul 4, 2006 11:21pm
Skype is out of action at the moment, but I have sent you a PM with my MSN details.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #49
  • Edited 7:35pm Jul 7, 2006 7:22pm | Edited 7:35pm
Ok another simple study into the effects the moon might have on price, I know this is something scoffed at and dismissed as rubbish, but I thought it was worth looking into considering I am looking at trading time not price. Instead of putting each moon phase on the chart and see what happened with price, I thought I would do it backwards, look at each major swing on my favourite pair, cable, and see if there is a moon phase that corresponded to them, the result is below, isn't it interesting that all major swings, i.e. trend changing swings, occured at or very close to (within a day or two) of a Full or New moon.

There were many more minor swings that corresponded to the new and full moon but I was interested in the major swings. There were also some new and full moons that didn't result in swings as well of course, but the point of this chart is to show that all major swings from 2003 to now seem to happen around these Moon phases:

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/6633/chart79uo.gif

Is it tradeable in this fashion, not in your life, as I said there were many that didn't result in swings but continuations instead, but I think it worth some more investigation.

You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #50
  • Jul 7, 2006 7:54pm Jul 7, 2006 7:54pm
wow! i will have to look into this..... good stuff....
  • #51
  • Jul 7, 2006 8:05pm Jul 7, 2006 8:05pm
For what it's worth, Many moons ago, on the 'old' FXCM forum there were at least 2 threads dedicated to the phases of the moon and trading. I was into technical analysis at the time and was just simply aware of them. There were some serious folks there and possibly a trading system.

There must be something to discover ' out there '.

Lou
  • #52
  • Jul 7, 2006 8:29pm Jul 7, 2006 8:29pm
Nice pun there Lou, and like you, on the surface of it I can't help but think there is a secret out there to be discovered (Im sure it has already by others), ill post any other findings as they come along.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #53
  • Jul 7, 2006 10:17pm Jul 7, 2006 10:17pm
Hi Akuma, I have some material that might interest you as far as time/cycles/trading the EUR/JPY. This is Gann stuff and I think you'll be surprised at what you see. It will take me a couple of days to get the material together, but I will get it together for you.



Quoting Akuma99
In terms of what niceguy777 is talking about, Ill spruke your site for you mate, have a look at http://www.leftbraintrading.com, I have read his book, it is worth a read.

I have spend the weekend looking into time in relation to trading, and to me there is a lot there to be discovered. I am concentrating on one pair at the moment, the EUR/JPY cross, to see if I can trade time rather than trade price if that makes sense to anyone. I can see some potential, but I can also see a lot of work
  • #54
  • Jul 8, 2006 12:13am Jul 8, 2006 12:13am
I am impressed by seeing the new and novel ideas of prediciting future price action and trends by comparing it with planets and moons.
What I see is that if moon has some effect on the price action then it means everything is predestined because moon has no free will to affect the price.If it is so then I think we should check the birth dates, marriages dates, etc etc of millionaries who have been lucky in forex to collect that wealth and we will be able to find some correlation between moon cycle and millionaires.May be all became millionaires on full moon.Who knows?
  • #55
  • Jul 8, 2006 3:42am Jul 8, 2006 3:42am
Stogie that would be fantastic and really greatly appreciated, PM me for my email address if you manage to gather it together
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #56
  • Jul 10, 2006 8:20pm Jul 10, 2006 8:20pm
Quoting Stogie
Hi Akuma, I have some material that might interest you as far as time/cycles/trading the EUR/JPY. This is Gann stuff and I think you'll be surprised at what you see. It will take me a couple of days to get the material together, but I will get it together for you.

Hi Stogie,

I'm interested in those materials as well I've been looking into planetary cycles recently etc...

Kind regards,
  • #57
  • Jul 10, 2006 9:16pm Jul 10, 2006 9:16pm
Gee haven't I opened a can of worms with my curiosity abou trading time. Here I was thinking now that the world cup has finished (which was on around 2am - 5am my time), and wimbledon (from 11pm - 4am) is done I would be getting some fantastic sleep (well as good as you can get with a little one). Instead I spent most of the night last night reading about Gann, Square of nines, mayans, planets etc. etc. oh my life for a good nights sleep

It is most interesting indeed, and plenty of potential, yet to nail down a solution though.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #58
  • Jul 11, 2006 3:02am Jul 11, 2006 3:02am
Fascinating stuff.......by the way, full moon today.


Chris
  • #59
  • Jul 11, 2006 3:18am Jul 11, 2006 3:18am
Here's a link to a moon phase calculator if anyone's interested.


http://www.dacre.net/moon/moonframe.html

Chris
  • #60
  • Jul 15, 2006 1:41am Jul 15, 2006 1:41am
Interesting you mention the full moon mp777, I made sure I took note of what happened in 4 different pairs around that time, the AUD/USD (usually effected by gold prices and with interest rate concerns), the USD/CAD (heavily effected by oil), GBP/USD (a major everyone loves), and a cross pair GBP/JPY (with the yen under all kinds of pressure with speculation on interest rates in japan). I did this to ensure I tried to get a good cross section of pairs effected by different areas. No use looking at the GBP/USD and EUR/USD for example as they have such a high correlation. Anyhow enough rambling, following are the four charts with the blue line dignifying the full moon.

http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/4695/moon1eu2.gif


http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/1047/moon2mq7.gif

You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
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