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High Probability Trade Setups

  • #161
  • Nov 24, 2013 11:28pm Nov 24, 2013 11:28pm
Will be looking to see how this plays out during next few days for a possible bo scenario.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp 1.png Size: 50 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #162
  • Nov 25, 2013 1:53am Nov 25, 2013 1:53am
EURUSD after dramatic move down last Wednesday came back up quite fast as well. That strongly suggests desire to go higher. Levels to watch are:
1.3560 (50% retracement) – last week’s highs (up to 1.3575) – break of those will open the way towards 1.3650 – 1.3700.
1.3490 – break of this level to the downside may suggest further fall towards 1.3300.
Watch price action at 1.3520 to open long position. At 1.3560-75 zone look for shorts, but if that level will not hold look for long on retracement to this zone. Similar situation at 1.3490 – 1.3500. Look for long trades once price reaches this level. In case it gets defeated take shorts on retracement back to 1.3490.
Further updates once price reaches mentioned levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd priceseeker 25.11.2013-1.PNG Size: 23 KB
Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
  • #163
  • Nov 25, 2013 8:41am Nov 25, 2013 8:41am
Here is a longer term trade that I am setting up for, it is a Bullish Rectangle that willmost likely to exit upward. Personally I will set it up to enter the trade with either a buy or a sell depending on the direction it breaks out. I think that it meets the parameters of this thread being a high probability low risk trade. See the additional comments on the chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-11-25 audjpy.png Size: 88 KB




Note: the AUDJPY pair when stuck in a range for more than a month has exited strongly and moved the full distance of the range and more. Based on recent 2 year history a move could be up to 1000 pips.

Happy traiding
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  • #164
  • Nov 25, 2013 10:45am Nov 25, 2013 10:45am
Here is a potential near term trading opportunity with the USDJPY currency pair. Again I am hoping that this meets the criteria desired for a High Probability Trade Setup.



Happy Trading
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 83 KB
  • #165
  • Nov 25, 2013 11:24am Nov 25, 2013 11:24am
Quoting LJay
Here is a longer term trade that I am setting up for, it is a Bullish Rectangle that willmost likely to exit upward. Personally I will set it up to enter the trade with either a buy or a sell depending on the direction it breaks out. I think that it meets the parameters of this thread being a high probability low risk trade. See the additional comments on the chart {image} Note: the AUDJPY pair when stuck in a range for more than a month has exited strongly and moved the full distance of the range and more. Based on recent 2 year history a move...
Hi LJay. Thanks for input. There is no right or wrong here just what people's personal views are of a high probability setup. Others may query or discuss why it may be H.P.S. and may even disagree, it's not important though because we are all adults and can make up our own minds

I like your charts and agree with the possible movements. The AUDUSD could easily move 1000 pips back above parity giving the movements required for your trades imo. Just as an Aussie though who has lived in the centre state of our resources boom that has floated our dollar, the talk is the boom is coming to an end. Gold prices have dropped which doesn't help.... but who really knows.

I am a break out trader too but I tend to steer clear of pending orders and would rather watch pa. When prices start to move it likes to break both boundaries before full movements that could leave 1 trade in wrong direction. I sometimes use aggressive BO trading for smaller tf's though. Just my opinion

Again thanks and GL.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #166
  • Nov 25, 2013 11:39am Nov 25, 2013 11:39am
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting Matts Micro
Will be looking to see how this plays out during next few days for a possible bo scenario. {image}
I went and got in although we are around 11/10 weekly close and 11/17 weekly open

also to boot we are approaching the pairs 9 day average,if it can pierce the 3rd layer

the 9 day moving average then it's only 23 pips until the 20 day average is hit and I

won't be surprised for a little drop here and then the rally up.....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbpm30.png Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.png Size: 78 KB
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #167
  • Edited 2:03pm Nov 25, 2013 11:40am | Edited 2:03pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
There is so much resistance on top of price right now that it will take

too long to name all the levels in it's way from going to much further

up so I'm banking on it continuing to drop...nzd/usd let's see how low

can it go...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdm30.png Size: 69 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdh4.png Size: 82 KB
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #168
  • Nov 25, 2013 11:57am Nov 25, 2013 11:57am
Quoting Owl
{quote} I went and got in although we are around 11/10 weekly close and 11/17 weekly open also to boot we are approaching the pairs 9 day average,if it can pierce the 3rd layer the 9 day average then it's only 23 pips until the 20 day average is hit and I won't be surprised for a little drop here and then the rally up.....
I am hoping for some consolidation or small pullback around TL for confirmation and to time my entry for smaller risk. A reversal could be an outcome as well. I am nervous around the euro atm it's lost a lot of it's correlation to other pairs imo and EU has been terrible last few weeks with whipsaws all over. Just treading carefully here

GL, hopefully I wont be far behind you.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #169
  • Nov 25, 2013 1:28pm Nov 25, 2013 1:28pm
Quoting Matts Micro
Will be looking to see how this plays out during next few days for a possible bo scenario. {image}
In @ 0.837
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #170
  • Nov 25, 2013 1:59pm Nov 25, 2013 1:59pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} In @ 0.837
May have got in too early. might be pullback/reversal from here.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #171
  • Nov 25, 2013 2:19pm Nov 25, 2013 2:19pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} May have got in too early. might be pullback/reversal from here.
Think I will increase SL with this 1 just in case but EG has fairly small range anyway and likely larger on topside.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #172
  • Edited 2:37pm Nov 25, 2013 2:27pm | Edited 2:37pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} May have got in too early. might be pullback/reversal from here.

Quoting Owl
{quote} if it can pierce the 3rd layer the 9 day moving average then it's only 23 pips until the 20 day average is hit and I won't be surprised for a little drop here and then the rally up.....

It should drop and or consolidate before the rally to the 20 day average let's see it does

look to be inside a S/D zone also so maybe it will resume a drop past my 35 pip stop and if

it does I put a pending sell stop 2 pips right after the 35 pip stop loss but I expect it to move

up towards the 20 day average at least so I hold my buy long on it...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbpm30.png Size: 75 KB
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #173
  • Nov 25, 2013 2:36pm Nov 25, 2013 2:36pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
I'm still in sell mode for aud/nzd.... price just got absorbed by the last 24 hr/1 day period

and now it seems to be resuming back south after a nice 53 pip run up..i'll probably add

more pending sell stops later in the asian session if I like what I see with what price is doing....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzdm30.png Size: 73 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzdh4.png Size: 79 KB
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #174
  • Nov 25, 2013 2:39pm Nov 25, 2013 2:39pm
Quoting Owl
{quote} {quote} It should drop and or consolidate before the rally to the 20 day average let's see it does look to be inside a S/D zone so maybe it will resume a drop past my 35 pip stop and if it does I put a pending sell stop 2 pips right after the 35 pip stop loss but I expect it to move up towards the 20 day average at least so I hold my buy long on it... {image}
yeps my levels agree. EU is going bullish anyway, I think this is just a pullback should retest soon.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #175
  • Nov 25, 2013 2:47pm Nov 25, 2013 2:47pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} yeps my levels agree. EU is going bullish anyway, I think this is just a pullback should retest soon.
In the correlation GU may come back up the weekly TL but EG is only 4hr so hopefully GU will hold longer if it breaks though this trade may fail.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #176
  • Nov 25, 2013 3:00pm Nov 25, 2013 3:00pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} In the correlation GU may come back up the weekly TL but EG is only 4hr so hopefully GU will hold longer if it breaks though this trade may fail.
This is what I'm looking at. If GU breaks the lower 4hr TL and EU doesn't mirror there will be strong EG bear. If GU comes up and breaks top weekly and again if EU doesn't mirror there will be EG sharp drop. GU resistance currently holding.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd 4.png Size: 60 KB
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #177
  • Nov 25, 2013 3:05pm Nov 25, 2013 3:05pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} This is what I'm looking at. If GU breaks the lower 4hr TL and EU doesn't mirror there will be strong EG bear. If GU comes up and breaks top weekly and again if EU doesn't mirror there will be EG sharp drop. GU resistance currently holding. {image}
I dropped trade -5 pips. It may still be good but too many variables I didn't see earlier.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #178
  • Nov 25, 2013 5:06pm Nov 25, 2013 5:06pm
GC short
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcaddaily.png Size: 36 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #179
  • Nov 26, 2013 2:35am Nov 26, 2013 2:35am
Pattern shown on an upper image suggests EURUSD is ready to charge to the upside. Strong drop down without continuation, but rather quick come back to the tops, then a little pause (small correction) and charge again towards tops most of the time results in a strong move up (right side of that pattern has characteristics of aggressive cup and handle pattern). In a short term you should rather look for longs towards 1.3575 and further towards 1.3700. There is a chance for short term short position from 1.3575-80 with TP @ 1.3555. Rather then that look for longs (short term and longer term – swing trade) after break out above 1.3575. Short positions will be preffered below 1.3490 towards 1.3450, 1.3400 and 1.3300.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd priceseeker 26.11.2013-1.PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd priceseeker 26.11.2013-2.PNG Size: 24 KB
Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
  • #180
  • Nov 27, 2013 1:48am Nov 27, 2013 1:48am
Long entry on EURUSD in play right now
Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
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