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Why Simple is better in trading and Complex is not

  • #321
  • Nov 25, 2013 11:25am Nov 25, 2013 11:25am
Quoting TEB63
I use a 50ma rather then a 200ma and I use a CCI rather then a Stoch
TEB63

Sorry to bother you, but I have questions about your SMA50+CCI method.

(1) Do you avoid news hours? Or do you just ignore them?

I spent a whole weekend back-testing this method and found this is incredibly effective.

One thing I noticed was, in many cases winning entries are right before news hours (especially 4h -- you enter, then next bar soars/tanks).

(2) How do you determine SL/TP??

Thank you very much in advance!
  • #322
  • Edited 1:51pm Nov 25, 2013 12:26pm | Edited 1:51pm
My own simple trade -- hitting trend line + stoc turn + EMA50 down SL=10 TP=25 fixed

Edit: after 90 min Out -3 due to the iron constipation (support)
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  • #323
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:31pm Nov 25, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting Forexgogo
My own simple trade -- hitting trend line + stoc turn + EMA50 down SL=10 TP=25 fixed {image}
Watch out, it's right above 1.35 and looks to have found support at the whole number
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  • #324
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:36pm Nov 25, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Watch out, it's right above 1.35 and looks to have found support at the whole number {image}
yeah must be my 0.03 buy lot creating all that support right there -delusional newbie-
Build good relationships with others.
  • #325
  • Nov 25, 2013 3:15pm Nov 25, 2013 3:15pm
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} yeah must be my 0.03 buy lot creating all that support right there -delusional newbie-
  • #326
  • Edited 6:02pm Nov 25, 2013 5:22pm | Edited 6:02pm
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Easy now, leave some for me
Edit: SL hit -10
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  • #327
  • Nov 25, 2013 5:29pm Nov 25, 2013 5:29pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} These are all must-have knowledge. But they never give you an edge for making money. They just tell you what NOT to do. You find an edge outside the box (of this knowledge). ie; I don't use trendlines, SR, candlestick patterns (H&S), and Fib to find entries. I use them to avoid entries. You get it? So what my edge? It's almost an embarrassingly simple and stupid thing....

Interesting post.Please elaborate more.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #328
  • Nov 25, 2013 5:34pm Nov 25, 2013 5:34pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} {image}
Pay no attention to the furthest left areas you have highlighted yellow, the only areas to want to pay attention to are the ones closest to the current price which will only be on the newest price wave which is either going up or down (bearish or bullish).

I personally would not have taken the position you did (I am quite anal with my entrys ), that particular level in question had already been hit, although tricky to see, price dropped slightly but pulled back to that bullish candle before dropping down to the 6135 area.

Good luck though
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  • #329
  • Nov 25, 2013 5:44pm Nov 25, 2013 5:44pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Interesting post.Please elaborate more. Regards
Say, you have basic knowledge ("basic" means "a lot").
Fib, SR, Big #s, weekly/monthly pivots, chart patterns (S&H, wedge...)
You know something is going to happen there.
But you don't know which way it goes for sure.
So, you don't want to enter there.

If only you have a pretty good idea which way it would go.

That is your edge! Get it??
  • #330
  • Nov 25, 2013 5:51pm Nov 25, 2013 5:51pm
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Pay no attention to the furthest left areas you have highlighted yellow, the only areas to want to pay attention to are the ones closest to the current price which will only be on the newest price wave which is either going up or down (bearish or bullish). I personally would not have taken the position you did (I am quite anal with my entrys ), that particular level in question had already been hit, although tricky to see, price dropped slightly but pulled back to that bullish candle before dropping down to the 6135 area. Good luck...
Thank you very much for the additional info. I understand it.
This case, weekly pivot is right above 1.6180. The price might hit it and get rejected... As of now it started coming down thou...

I add your "friction method" to my confluence list. I really like it!!
  • #331
  • Nov 25, 2013 5:55pm Nov 25, 2013 5:55pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} Thank you very much for the additional info. I understand it. This case, weekly pivot is right above 1.6180. The price might hit it and get rejected... As of now it started coming down thou... I add your "friction method" to my confluence list. I really like it!!
No worries

I'd like it to drop...got a buy limit waiting at 1.61198 and would like it to get hit well before the GBP inflation report hearings in the morning

Edit - the bigger the timeframe, the more reliable the areas are and the bigger the moves are also. I generally don't drop below the 1hour charts.
  • #332
  • Nov 25, 2013 6:09pm Nov 25, 2013 6:09pm
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} No worries I'd like it to drop...got a buy limit waiting at 1.61198 and would like it to get hit well before the GBP inflation report hearings in the morning Edit - the bigger the timeframe, the more reliable the areas are and the bigger the moves are also. I generally don't drop below the 1hour charts.
OK, I'll try 1h next time. (I just think 15m is easier to find the friction...)
Nighty night zzzzz
  • #333
  • Nov 25, 2013 9:47pm Nov 25, 2013 9:47pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} TEB63 Sorry to bother you, but I have questions about your SMA50+CCI method. (1) Do you avoid news hours? Or do you just ignore them? I spent a whole weekend back-testing this method and found this is incredibly effective. One thing I noticed was, in many cases winning entries are right before news hours (especially 4h -- you enter, then next bar soars/tanks). (2) How do you determine SL/TP?? Thank you very much in advance!
News
On the 15 min chart I would avoid
1 hour or more no I would ignore

SL/TP
1. Find the SL swings and whole number
2. Target 1 to 3 RRR - check on the 4 hour see if the target is likely
  • #334
  • Nov 26, 2013 1:34am Nov 26, 2013 1:34am
Quoting TEB63
{quote} News On 1 hour or more no I would ignore
Thank you very much! This is very good to know.
  • #335
  • Nov 26, 2013 2:33am Nov 26, 2013 2:33am
here are some trades I took
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  • #336
  • Nov 26, 2013 2:42am Nov 26, 2013 2:42am
the key is see if you have some pip room so on a hour trade look at the day charts
see if you can get 1 to 3 RRR(NEED 1 to 4 RRR)
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  • #337
  • Nov 26, 2013 3:18am Nov 26, 2013 3:18am
An area worth looking at on EURJPY should the market drop to that level. It lines up with the opening price of that large bullish daily candle with the long wick...highlighted green. The market has not been back to that level since moving away from it.

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  • #338
  • Edited 7:04am Nov 26, 2013 4:16am | Edited 7:04am
Quoting TEB63
here are some trades I took {image}
A quick question;
Why didn't you enter six hours earlier?? CCI was just getting out of the oversold...

Edit I just entered short, although SMA50 is NOT downward. I see the PA hitting a resistance... I already moved SL to BE anyway, so no worry
Edit SL hit
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  • #339
  • Edited 9:08am Nov 26, 2013 8:10am | Edited 9:08am
Again, trying TEB63's SMA50+CCI Bouncing at S yellow line. 15m shows entry timing

Edit SL=BE hit by news
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  • #340
  • Nov 26, 2013 10:02am Nov 26, 2013 10:02am
Quoting GDR3k
the bigger the timeframe, the more reliable the areas are and the bigger the moves are also. I generally don't drop below the 1hour charts.
OK here is a 4h friction confluecne with a classic good old channel
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