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GBP/AUD

  • #21
  • Nov 22, 2013 12:56am Nov 22, 2013 12:56am
let me add here that I am more inclined to watch the medium term fundamentals, as the RBA clearly states that they want the aussie lower I am still wondering why you guys would want to short the aussie ? Am I missing something here ? After writing last night (my timezone) I decided to go long, closed the position at 1.7630, at the moment no aussie positions I guess it needs a retrace but I won't short it.
I still like to know why ya'll are so found of shorting, I'm just asking to change ideas here.
Thanks
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  • #22
  • Nov 22, 2013 3:45am Nov 22, 2013 3:45am
well..i trade this pair alone this week..AUD certainly weak..but Aussie real estate property are hot..Chinese might invest it..technically..price going back to 2009-2010 price..but price stuck here is because of fibo 50% on monthly chart..i believe n hoping for a retrace here back to 1.69 before going to 1.83..
  • #23
  • Nov 22, 2013 5:45am Nov 22, 2013 5:45am
Yes, 50% monthly is around 1.7663 according to my Fibs indicator. So, this could be a retracement from that huge downtrend on the monthly. Like I said, I doubt the uptrend will be over this week, maybe at some point in the middle of next week profit taking from the longs will kick in, so shorts can have a bit of fun too. Fundamentals are against the Aussie, no doubt about it. I am trying to pick some good spots for a carry trade on GBP/AUD but seems risky to add right now.
  • #24
  • Nov 22, 2013 5:47am Nov 22, 2013 5:47am
Hi Krassen, fair enough, but don't you think that in case RBA really wants their currency lower the G/A could go back to 1.81 level ?
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  • #25
  • Nov 22, 2013 5:59am Nov 22, 2013 5:59am
It may as well go to 1.81, the uptrend is very strong. If we have a retrace to 1.7560 I will try a long if I like the PA. Remember that Euro countries (except Germany) and the US also want their currencies lower, we have an on-going price war that the Japanese started a year ago. Whether it will happen or not - it's up to the big players, we can only watch and try to follow their moves.
  • #26
  • Nov 22, 2013 6:01am Nov 22, 2013 6:01am
with u there, gotta keep an eye on ht pound, and in case aussie wants to retrace I'm in for a short but for now I'm more inclined to long, my long yesterday kinda made may year
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  • #27
  • Nov 24, 2013 8:59pm Nov 24, 2013 8:59pm
Hi,
do you guys think the retracement to 1,752-1,755 (within 48 hours) is possible here?
Thanx a lot
Everything is gonna be OK at the end. If its not OK Its not the end
  • #28
  • Nov 25, 2013 4:39am Nov 25, 2013 4:39am
Quoting biondo
Hi, do you guys think the retracement to 1,752-1,755 (within 48 hours) is possible here? Thanx a lot
Anything is possible mate.. And this would not surprise me at all
  • #29
  • Nov 25, 2013 11:16am Nov 25, 2013 11:16am
gbp/aud has completed wave 5 as an extended wave in 1 hour chart. it is now following a correction that will continue at least next 1 week.
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  • #30
  • Nov 25, 2013 1:47pm Nov 25, 2013 1:47pm
Thanx a lot guys!
Everything is gonna be OK at the end. If its not OK Its not the end
  • #31
  • Nov 25, 2013 3:45pm Nov 25, 2013 3:45pm
Quoting iamanalyst
gbp/aud has completed wave 5 as an extended wave in 1 hour chart. it is now following a correction that will continue at least next 1 week. {image}

hi all;

i am agrre with jamanalyst here is my post today;

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post7111870
  • #32
  • Nov 26, 2013 3:08am Nov 26, 2013 3:08am
Hi,

Does this mean you both think this will be heading south for the next week....??




Happy pipping
  • #33
  • Nov 26, 2013 3:18am Nov 26, 2013 3:18am
God, I wish I had trillions so I could sell this bullshit stop hunt.
  • #34
  • Nov 26, 2013 5:52am Nov 26, 2013 5:52am
am i wrong? i thougt that it was exact time to SELL. what you think iamanlyst??
  • #35
  • Nov 26, 2013 6:43am Nov 26, 2013 6:43am
I think there is minimum another 300-400 pips upside, next zone is 1.81-1.83 area
  • #36
  • Nov 26, 2013 6:54am Nov 26, 2013 6:54am
Are you a GBP bull or an AUD bear or both?
  • #37
  • Nov 26, 2013 7:08am Nov 26, 2013 7:08am
Neither...but looking back on weekly, 1.8135 is where it struggled to get past last time...
fndamentally, Aussie saying overvalued by 10%, means ur looking at Aussie being at 0.83 ish area...
yday we had a 150 pip drop which could be some profit taking in which case another 500-1000 pips before next bout of profit taking...

wells thats my reasoning?

Hope others put their reasons forward also
  • #38
  • Nov 26, 2013 7:16am Nov 26, 2013 7:16am
according to me recent retracement to 1,757 was based on profit taking. Hower, the velocity and rapidity how it came back to the recent high surprised me totaly.
What do you think about double top here?
Everything is gonna be OK at the end. If its not OK Its not the end
  • #39
  • Nov 26, 2013 7:27am Nov 26, 2013 7:27am
I think the 0.8850 level on AUD/USD will be hard to break, so 0.83 will take some special events happening, maybe more than just talk from Stevens... e.g. an intervention. However, I think if the Aussies do that it will be quite silly - it will not be good for them in the long run. Out of curiosity - what swap do you guys pay your brokers when you hold your long GBP/AUD positions overnight? I am stuck with $16.10 a day per lot negative swap - really sucks if you hold for a week or so. Thus, I am mostly shorting this pair when I see a chance.
  • #40
  • Nov 26, 2013 7:50am Nov 26, 2013 7:50am
Quoting krassen
I think the 0.8850 level on AUD/USD will be hard to break, so 0.83 will take some special events happening, maybe more than just talk from Stevens... e.g. an intervention. However, I think if the Aussies do that it will be quite silly - it will not be good for them in the long run. Out of curiosity - what swap do you guys pay your brokers when you hold your long GBP/AUD positions overnight? I am stuck with $16.10 a day per lot negative swap - really sucks if you hold for a week or so. Thus, I am mostly shorting this pair when I see a chance.
$ 20 long, $ 6 short.. I bought it once. Had to hold for a week or so and it took almost 30% of my profit to pay for swaps.. In addition, the mere fact that holding one lot costs a 2 pips a day do not contribute to my trading comfort much so i dont think its the best idea to buy this one once youre position trader
Everything is gonna be OK at the end. If its not OK Its not the end
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