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  • #241
  • Nov 23, 2013 4:54pm Nov 23, 2013 4:54pm
Quoting milam
Just for the sake of it, to respond to some insinuation initiated by some professional troll and for respect to some good people including TEB63 here are some of my latest trades, I have also accoured some losses which are not included, but they are only a small part of it... Still holding EU long @ +54 pips with SL to BE. Take care and have a good continuation….. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}

well it looks like you know what you are doing

congrads
  • #242
  • Nov 23, 2013 4:56pm Nov 23, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} Basically, any sort of indecisiveness on the charts is what I look for, it doesn't always have to be an opposing candle though, large wicks work equally well. {image}
Great stuff, great perspective! I will definitely take it into consideration when I see the PA from now on.
Thank you very much!!
  • #243
  • Nov 23, 2013 4:56pm Nov 23, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting TEB63
{quote} wait a minute you have a 2nd MA on this chart looks like a 200ma lol and the 50ma lol just having fun Icheck these two MA as well from time to time
That is Forexgogo's chart
  • #244
  • Nov 23, 2013 4:58pm Nov 23, 2013 4:58pm
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} Great stuff, great perspective! I will definitely take it into consideration when I see the PA from now on. Thank you very much!!
It allows you to get in at the very start of moves, often accurate to the pip and then it bounces away.
  • #245
  • Nov 23, 2013 5:02pm Nov 23, 2013 5:02pm
Quoting GDR3k
{quote} It allows you to get in at the very start of moves, often accurate to the pip and then it bounces away.

you could add it also lets you have a small Stop loss - right
  • #246
  • Nov 23, 2013 5:06pm Nov 23, 2013 5:06pm
Quoting TEB63
{quote} you could add it also lets you have a small Stop loss - right
Yeah and that
  • #247
  • Nov 23, 2013 5:39pm Nov 23, 2013 5:39pm
you know the one thing that has not come up much.

and the bigger this is the simpler the trading system is

and that word I would say is .................. edge


what is the edge you got?
  • #248
  • Edited 6:08pm Nov 23, 2013 5:45pm | Edited 6:08pm
Quoting TEB63
you know the one thing that has not come up much. and the bigger this is the simpler the trading system is and that word I would say is .................. edge what is the edge you got?
In the larger/macro scheme of things (following the big boys):

Buying oversold/low when prices have historically been going up; selling overbought/high when prices have historically been going down; and getting out when said history changes, or when momentum dies after a move.

In the smaller/micro scheme of things (works on all time frames, even 1 min charts):

Buying when choppy, slow, (corrective) selling suddenly accelerates when prices are already clearly stretched to take advantage of market inefficiencies and profit from the rubber band snapback.

The reverse for selling.

e.g.
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  • #249
  • Nov 23, 2013 6:11pm Nov 23, 2013 6:11pm
very interesting

I see a flag

1. But how do you know to sell there you do?
2. what is the trigger?
3, what is your stop ?
4. what is the target? -the flag pole length?
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  • #250
  • Edited 6:33pm Nov 23, 2013 6:17pm | Edited 6:33pm
Quoting TEB63
very interesting I see a flag 1. But how do you know to sell there you do? 2. what is the trigger? 3, what is your stop ? 4. what is the target? -the flag pole length? {image}
In this case, If price closes above 138.2 by X pips, set TP at Break-even.


If you must have it, SL at previous high, but it will never be hit if you take the chance to get out at break-even on a retrace - which will happen almost all the time because market is overstretched....

Once price moves in your favour, I prefer jumping stops, depending on TF, move your stop up after every X amount of pips. You can use fib extensions as targets.
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  • #251
  • Edited 6:52pm Nov 23, 2013 6:38pm | Edited 6:52pm
Quoting TEB63
very interesting I see a flag 1. But how do you know to sell there you do? 2. what is the trigger? 3, what is your stop ? 4. what is the target? -the flag pole length? {image}
1) Fib extension
2) Trigger is PRICE = Fib + sharp/fast movement (the lower the TF, the scarier it should feel - as if the market is cracking but fret not it's a fakeout/ stopsweep/ liquidity hunt)
3) Stop is extreme (for safety) and dynamic exits using take profits set at break-even. (you can easily take 100 trades with no losers with this method on the 1-5 minute chart, if you are disciplined and not HOPE market will move in your favour and give up on chance to get out at breakeven.)
4) target is jumping stop + fib extensions.

This is how the market moves, and will always moves and kills most traders because they jump in too early on the move.

See 4H and daily chart of GBP/USD to see how this happens on all TFs.
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  • #252
  • Edited 9:07pm Nov 23, 2013 8:50pm | Edited 9:07pm
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} 1) Fib extension 2) Trigger is PRICE = Fib + sharp/fast movement (the lower the TF, the scarier it should feel - as if the market is cracking but fret not it's a fakeout/ stopsweep/ liquidity hunt) 3) Stop is extreme (for safety) and dynamic exits using take profits set at break-even. (you can easily take 100 trades with no losers with this method on the 1-5 minute chart, if you are disciplined and not HOPE market will move in your favour and give up on chance to get out at breakeven.) 4) target is jumping stop + fib extensions. This is...

this happens more in forex and the reason why S/D zones do not work as well in forex as commodity's and stocks.
the market makers can test or even run stops.

its easy to find the S/D levels or zones.... its the stops that are the issues!!
I am not sure I get this system as I can never see if S/D Zone will hold or be run like you are showing!

Shellsnail - good stuff
  • #253
  • Nov 23, 2013 8:52pm Nov 23, 2013 8:52pm
Quoting TEB63
{quote} this happens more in forex and the reason why S/D zones do not work as well in forex as commodity's and stocks. the market makers can test or even run stops. good stuff
here's some interesting ones
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  • #254
  • Edited 9:15pm Nov 23, 2013 8:56pm | Edited 9:15pm
And my personal favourite: one that I will be watching closely...
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  • #255
  • Edited 10:03pm Nov 23, 2013 9:45pm | Edited 10:03pm
Quoting TEB63
{quote} this happens more in forex and the reason why S/D zones do not work as well in forex as commodity's and stocks. the market makers can test or even run stops. its easy to find the S/D levels or zones.... its the stops that are the issues!! I am not sure I get this system as I can never see if S/D Zone will hold or be run like you are showing! Shellsnail - good stuff

Well, the thing is, I am wrong a lot too because price often blows past these areas, but as long as I am emotionally sane, I can get out at break-even.

The key is, when you are trading a 5min chart, and you are wrong (i.e. price blows through your area and you get out at breakeven on a retrace). The next step should be to zoom out to a 15 minute chart and redo the analysis because there's a high likelihood a LARGER price structure is forming...

So the key here is to zoom out whenever you are wrong - eventually you might end up at a 30min chart for intra-day but it also means your rewards get much larger. Prevents overtrading as well

I think the reason why this works is because fundamentally the market structure on short time frames is filled with inefficiencies in the sense that traders and speculators get very very emotional (greed and fear), so price tends to get over-stretched and some bigger speculators cash in on that. The other reason of course is the use of stops. People get in too early and place stops at below those areas. Stop basically represent WILLINGNESS AND ABILITY to buy/sell in the market. last I checked, that was the official definition of demand and supply. So if a large order comes into the bank to buy EUR/USD, ofcourse the bank will try to offer the client the best price, and a quick check shows that there are many willing sellers at these regions (i.e. STOPS) so ofcourse these stops must be FILLED by the market. After all price moves to satisfy the largest number of market participants - when you place a stop in the market, it is assumed and implicit that IF price hits your stop, you experience a GAIN in welfare because that's how economics work, and price NATURALLY gravitates to MAXIMISE welfare. If you will not experience a gain in welfare with that stop, then why make that trade and place the stop in the market???

I mean the person who invented stop orders for FOREX must be a genius because how else do you get liquidity!?

if you didn't get the example, just think about it this way. The market price shown is the price the last trade took place at. A stop order below market price basically says you are willing to SUPPLY the currency pair at that price. The more people place stops, the more the average reservation price of sellers FALL, and that means SUPPLY INCREASES. When supply increases, naturally equilibrium price will gravitate downwards, as long as banks WAIT and don't put the large order in, or simply use LIMIT orders at those regions with stops, they will naturally get their FILL for their clients. If no one traded with stops or used MOMENTUM based and breakout based strategies, the market will work very differently... We may get even larger distortions in price because now the only way to force people to supply is to margin call them. (So be thankful that most people still use stops in conventional ways.)
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  • #256
  • Nov 23, 2013 10:28pm Nov 23, 2013 10:28pm
To illustrate the zoom out point,

previously there was a GBP/USD chart:
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So once your entry failed, you are out at break even and you zoom out one TF.

Here is what you see.
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P.S. I was watching the market at that point. Price was moving up VERY VERY bullishly, but the entry was an easy one if you know what to look for, because FEAR (market is going to the moon!) is often a good indicator and the other one is IMPATIENCE/IRRITATION (the trade is going to take off without me!). The more you feel both and learn to live with them, the more likely you are going to get a very very good entry.

Cheers.
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  • #257
  • Nov 24, 2013 4:22am Nov 24, 2013 4:22am
Quoting TEB63
{quote} Countries we see on the month charts - ie. interest rate decisions on the week we see companies like GM or Nike hedging on the day chart we see the banks and brokers positions. on the 4 hour we see the pros. below are "non pro" each of them are different and trade for different reasons
This made me think about "simple trading way" from a different perspective.

My question is, which timeframe is good to find entries for steady and dependable earnings? (of course we check all TFs to see trends -- say, from month to 15m). I'm talking about the timeframe you define an exact point of entry.

Years ago when I joined James16, they told me to trade daily and weekly charts for more reliable S/R and candle patterns. I thought it was a good "simple" strategy, and I still do.

It would be great if you make year's earning in one trade a year. But it is not quite doable if not impossible.

I just think that trading in "higher TF=more reliable technical analysis" IS NOT necessarily leading to efficient profit making (steady and dependable earnings).

Do you see my point?

Then, how many times should it be? In other words, what timeframes should be the main timeframe you find entries?

------------------------------------------------------------------

BTW, if you are a trading-once-a-year kind of trader, you may want to think about this chart.
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  • #258
  • Nov 24, 2013 4:23am Nov 24, 2013 4:23am
Quoting GDR3k
Basically, any sort of indecisiveness on the charts is what I look for, it doesn't always have to be an opposing candle though, large wicks work equally well.
Carrying on with that last quote, outlining indecisiveness and the larger wicks on the 4hour charts. Provided the market has not been back to that wick you can normally expect a decent move away from it giving you a r:r of 1:1, good if you just want to scalp the areas and get in and out of the market pretty fast. You will notice though, each one on that eurjpy chart was a major turning point, except two of them.
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  • #259
  • Nov 24, 2013 4:31am Nov 24, 2013 4:31am
Quoting Forexgogo
{quote} This made me think about "simple trading way" from a different perspective. My question is, which timeframe is good to find entries for steady and dependable earnings? (of course we check all TFs to see trends -- say, from month to 15m). I'm talking about the timeframe you define an exact point of entry. Years ago when I joined James16, they told me to trade daily and weekly charts for more reliable S/R and candle patterns. I thought it was a good "simple" strategy, and I still do. It would be great if you make year's earning in one trade...

Ok just hitting and running here have to go - to your question your question

the rule of "4 to 6 times" is the answer

ie. 15 min & 60 min & 240 min - all are 4 x bigger
Day & week & Month all 4 or 5 times bigger
week - day - 4 hour is the one I use the most they are 5 or 6 times bigger

this has been proven the best ratio for momentum trades

cheers

teb
  • #260
  • Nov 24, 2013 5:37am Nov 24, 2013 5:37am
I see a few other trades I marked why did you not take them?
the one at the bottom what did you think of doing with it
- it would have been against trend
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